Before hormones, transgender women ran 1.5 miles 147 seconds (about 21%) faster than the average Air Force woman under 30. The gap narrowed but did not close: 97 seconds after under a year, 64 seconds at 1-2 years and 90 seconds (about 12%) at 2-2.5 years, all significantly faster.
Shaded bands show the 95% confidence interval of each estimate (ciLow to ciHigh).
| averageWomanSeconds | ciHigh | ciLevel | ciLow | estimate | method | speedAdvantagePct | timeOnHormones | transWomenSeconds | unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 855 | 173 | 0.95 | 121 | 147 | Roberts et al. (2021) Table 4 mean difference from the average Air Force woman under 30, sign reversed so faster is positive; 95% CI from the paper. | 20.8 | Year 0 (before) | 708 | seconds faster than the average Air Force woman over 1.5 miles |
| 855 | 124 | 0.95 | 70 | 97 | Roberts et al. (2021) Table 4 mean difference from the average Air Force woman under 30, sign reversed so faster is positive; 95% CI from the paper. | 12.8 | Year 0-1 | 758 | seconds faster than the average Air Force woman over 1.5 miles |
| 855 | 101 | 0.95 | 26 | 64 | Roberts et al. (2021) Table 4 mean difference from the average Air Force woman under 30, sign reversed so faster is positive; 95% CI from the paper. | 8.1 | Year 1-2 | 791 | seconds faster than the average Air Force woman over 1.5 miles |
| 855 | 169 | 0.95 | 10 | 90 | Roberts et al. (2021) Table 4 mean difference from the average Air Force woman under 30, sign reversed so faster is positive; 95% CI from the paper. | 11.8 | Year 2-2.5 | 765 | seconds faster than the average Air Force woman over 1.5 miles |