Of 18 comparisons, 12 came in above the estimate and 6 below. All 4 comparisons in 2008-09 recession years (New York, Maryland twice, Oregon) came in below. Of the other 14, 12 came in above; the exceptions are Washington's capital gains tax in tax years 2023-24 (0.84) and Metro's Supportive Housing Services tax in FY2024-25 (0.87 of the original budget, though within 1% of Metro's updated forecast). The highest ratio is Washington's 2.9% capital gains surcharge (2.20); the lowest is Maryland's millionaire bracket in tax year 2009 (0.56).
| actual_usd_m | comparison_id | economy | estimate_usd_m | label | period | ratio | tax | verification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3500 | ca-prop30-fy2012 | Expansion | 2816 | CA Prop 30 FY12 | FY2011-12 | 1.243 | California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates | Verified |
| 5300 | ca-prop30-fy2013 | Expansion | 4265 | CA Prop 30 FY13 | FY2012-13 | 1.243 | California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates | Verified |
| 5600 | ca-prop30-fy2014 | Expansion | 4358 | CA Prop 30 FY14 | FY2013-14 | 1.285 | California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates | Verified |
| 7000 | ca-prop30-fy2017 | Expansion | 5173 | CA Prop 30 FY17 | FY2016-17 | 1.353 | California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates | Verified |
| 906 | ca-prop63-fy2006 | Expansion | 750 | CA Prop 63 FY06 | FY2005-06 | 1.208 | California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M | Verified |
| 984 | ca-prop63-fy2007 | Expansion | 800 | CA Prop 63 FY07 | FY2006-07 | 1.23 | California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M | Verified |
| 2199 | ma-surtax-fy2024-dor | Expansion | 1605.5 | MA surtax FY24 (DOR) | FY2024 | 1.37 | Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023) | Verified |
| 2199 | ma-surtax-fy2024-tufts | Expansion | 1300 | MA surtax FY24 (Tufts) | FY2024 (estimate for 2023) | 1.692 | Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023) | Verified |
| 3600 | ny-surcharge-sfy2010 | Recession (2008-09) | 4000 | NY surcharge FY10 | SFY2009-10 | 0.9 | New York 2009 temporary high-income surcharge | Verified |
| 78.2 | md-millionaire-ty2008 | Recession (2008-09) | 102.1 | MD $1M bracket TY08 | Tax year 2008 | 0.766 | Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10) | Verified |
| 60.8 | md-millionaire-ty2009 | Recession (2008-09) | 109.3 | MD $1M bracket TY09 | Tax year 2009 | 0.556 | Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10) | Verified |
| 336 | or-m66-bien-2009-11 | Recession (2008-09) | 504 | OR Measure 66 2009-11 | 2009-11 biennium | 0.667 | Oregon Measure 66 (2010) top-rate increase | Unverified |
| 187 | mult-pfa-fy2022 | Expansion | 112 | Multnomah PFA FY22 | FY2022 | 1.67 | Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021) | Verified |
| 224 | mult-pfa-fy2025 | Expansion | 163 | Multnomah PFA FY25 | FY2025 | 1.374 | Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021) | Unverified |
| 325 | metro-shs-fy2025 | Expansion | 374.5 | Metro SHS FY25 | FY2024-25 | 0.868 | Metro Supportive Housing Services income tax (2021) | Verified |
| 782 | wa-capgains-fy2023 | Market decline (2022) | 527 | WA cap gains TY22 | Tax year 2022 (FY2023) | 1.484 | Washington capital gains tax (2021) | Verified |
| 978.5 | wa-capgains-2023-25 | Expansion | 1162 | WA cap gains TY23-24 | Tax years 2023-24 (2023-25 biennium) | 0.842 | Washington capital gains tax (2021) | Verified |
| 331.9 | wa-surcharge-fy2026 | Expansion | 151 | WA surcharge TY25 | Tax year 2025 (FY2026) | 2.198 | Washington 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1M (2025) | Verified |