{
 "ratioRows": [
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY12",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2012",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2011-12",
   "estimate_usd_m": 2816,
   "actual_usd_m": 3500,
   "ratio": 1.243,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY13",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2013",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2012-13",
   "estimate_usd_m": 4265,
   "actual_usd_m": 5300,
   "ratio": 1.243,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY14",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2014",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2013-14",
   "estimate_usd_m": 4358,
   "actual_usd_m": 5600,
   "ratio": 1.285,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY17",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2017",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2016-17",
   "estimate_usd_m": 5173,
   "actual_usd_m": 7000,
   "ratio": 1.353,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 63 FY06",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop63-fy2006",
   "tax": "California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M",
   "period": "FY2005-06",
   "estimate_usd_m": 750,
   "actual_usd_m": 906,
   "ratio": 1.208,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 63 FY07",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop63-fy2007",
   "tax": "California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M",
   "period": "FY2006-07",
   "estimate_usd_m": 800,
   "actual_usd_m": 984,
   "ratio": 1.23,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MA surtax FY24 (DOR)",
   "comparison_id": "ma-surtax-fy2024-dor",
   "tax": "Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)",
   "period": "FY2024",
   "estimate_usd_m": 1605.5,
   "actual_usd_m": 2199,
   "ratio": 1.37,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MA surtax FY24 (Tufts)",
   "comparison_id": "ma-surtax-fy2024-tufts",
   "tax": "Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)",
   "period": "FY2024 (estimate for 2023)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 1300,
   "actual_usd_m": 2199,
   "ratio": 1.692,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "NY surcharge FY10",
   "comparison_id": "ny-surcharge-sfy2010",
   "tax": "New York 2009 temporary high-income surcharge",
   "period": "SFY2009-10",
   "estimate_usd_m": 4000,
   "actual_usd_m": 3600,
   "ratio": 0.9,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MD $1M bracket TY08",
   "comparison_id": "md-millionaire-ty2008",
   "tax": "Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)",
   "period": "Tax year 2008",
   "estimate_usd_m": 102.1,
   "actual_usd_m": 78.2,
   "ratio": 0.766,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MD $1M bracket TY09",
   "comparison_id": "md-millionaire-ty2009",
   "tax": "Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)",
   "period": "Tax year 2009",
   "estimate_usd_m": 109.3,
   "actual_usd_m": 60.8,
   "ratio": 0.556,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "OR Measure 66 2009-11",
   "comparison_id": "or-m66-bien-2009-11",
   "tax": "Oregon Measure 66 (2010) top-rate increase",
   "period": "2009-11 biennium",
   "estimate_usd_m": 504,
   "actual_usd_m": 336,
   "ratio": 0.667,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Unverified"
  },
  {
   "label": "Multnomah PFA FY22",
   "comparison_id": "mult-pfa-fy2022",
   "tax": "Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021)",
   "period": "FY2022",
   "estimate_usd_m": 112,
   "actual_usd_m": 187,
   "ratio": 1.67,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "Multnomah PFA FY25",
   "comparison_id": "mult-pfa-fy2025",
   "tax": "Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021)",
   "period": "FY2025",
   "estimate_usd_m": 163,
   "actual_usd_m": 224,
   "ratio": 1.374,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Unverified"
  },
  {
   "label": "Metro SHS FY25",
   "comparison_id": "metro-shs-fy2025",
   "tax": "Metro Supportive Housing Services income tax (2021)",
   "period": "FY2024-25",
   "estimate_usd_m": 374.5,
   "actual_usd_m": 325,
   "ratio": 0.868,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "WA cap gains TY22",
   "comparison_id": "wa-capgains-fy2023",
   "tax": "Washington capital gains tax (2021)",
   "period": "Tax year 2022 (FY2023)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 527,
   "actual_usd_m": 782,
   "ratio": 1.484,
   "economy": "Market decline (2022)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "WA cap gains TY23-24",
   "comparison_id": "wa-capgains-2023-25",
   "tax": "Washington capital gains tax (2021)",
   "period": "Tax years 2023-24 (2023-25 biennium)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 1162,
   "actual_usd_m": 978.5,
   "ratio": 0.842,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "WA surcharge TY25",
   "comparison_id": "wa-surcharge-fy2026",
   "tax": "Washington 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1M (2025)",
   "period": "Tax year 2025 (FY2026)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 151,
   "actual_usd_m": 331.9,
   "ratio": 2.198,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  }
 ],
 "verifiedRows": [
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY12",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2012",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2011-12",
   "estimate_usd_m": 2816,
   "actual_usd_m": 3500,
   "ratio": 1.243,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY13",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2013",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2012-13",
   "estimate_usd_m": 4265,
   "actual_usd_m": 5300,
   "ratio": 1.243,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY14",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2014",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2013-14",
   "estimate_usd_m": 4358,
   "actual_usd_m": 5600,
   "ratio": 1.285,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 30 FY17",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop30-fy2017",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "period": "FY2016-17",
   "estimate_usd_m": 5173,
   "actual_usd_m": 7000,
   "ratio": 1.353,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 63 FY06",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop63-fy2006",
   "tax": "California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M",
   "period": "FY2005-06",
   "estimate_usd_m": 750,
   "actual_usd_m": 906,
   "ratio": 1.208,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "CA Prop 63 FY07",
   "comparison_id": "ca-prop63-fy2007",
   "tax": "California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M",
   "period": "FY2006-07",
   "estimate_usd_m": 800,
   "actual_usd_m": 984,
   "ratio": 1.23,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MA surtax FY24 (DOR)",
   "comparison_id": "ma-surtax-fy2024-dor",
   "tax": "Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)",
   "period": "FY2024",
   "estimate_usd_m": 1605.5,
   "actual_usd_m": 2199,
   "ratio": 1.37,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MA surtax FY24 (Tufts)",
   "comparison_id": "ma-surtax-fy2024-tufts",
   "tax": "Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)",
   "period": "FY2024 (estimate for 2023)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 1300,
   "actual_usd_m": 2199,
   "ratio": 1.692,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "NY surcharge FY10",
   "comparison_id": "ny-surcharge-sfy2010",
   "tax": "New York 2009 temporary high-income surcharge",
   "period": "SFY2009-10",
   "estimate_usd_m": 4000,
   "actual_usd_m": 3600,
   "ratio": 0.9,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MD $1M bracket TY08",
   "comparison_id": "md-millionaire-ty2008",
   "tax": "Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)",
   "period": "Tax year 2008",
   "estimate_usd_m": 102.1,
   "actual_usd_m": 78.2,
   "ratio": 0.766,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "MD $1M bracket TY09",
   "comparison_id": "md-millionaire-ty2009",
   "tax": "Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)",
   "period": "Tax year 2009",
   "estimate_usd_m": 109.3,
   "actual_usd_m": 60.8,
   "ratio": 0.556,
   "economy": "Recession (2008-09)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "Multnomah PFA FY22",
   "comparison_id": "mult-pfa-fy2022",
   "tax": "Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021)",
   "period": "FY2022",
   "estimate_usd_m": 112,
   "actual_usd_m": 187,
   "ratio": 1.67,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "Metro SHS FY25",
   "comparison_id": "metro-shs-fy2025",
   "tax": "Metro Supportive Housing Services income tax (2021)",
   "period": "FY2024-25",
   "estimate_usd_m": 374.5,
   "actual_usd_m": 325,
   "ratio": 0.868,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "WA cap gains TY22",
   "comparison_id": "wa-capgains-fy2023",
   "tax": "Washington capital gains tax (2021)",
   "period": "Tax year 2022 (FY2023)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 527,
   "actual_usd_m": 782,
   "ratio": 1.484,
   "economy": "Market decline (2022)",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "WA cap gains TY23-24",
   "comparison_id": "wa-capgains-2023-25",
   "tax": "Washington capital gains tax (2021)",
   "period": "Tax years 2023-24 (2023-25 biennium)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 1162,
   "actual_usd_m": 978.5,
   "ratio": 0.842,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  },
  {
   "label": "WA surcharge TY25",
   "comparison_id": "wa-surcharge-fy2026",
   "tax": "Washington 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1M (2025)",
   "period": "Tax year 2025 (FY2026)",
   "estimate_usd_m": 151,
   "actual_usd_m": 331.9,
   "ratio": 2.198,
   "economy": "Expansion",
   "verification": "Verified"
  }
 ],
 "summary": [
  {
   "group": "All comparisons",
   "comparisons": 18,
   "above_estimate": 12,
   "below_estimate": 6
  },
  {
   "group": "2008-09 recession years",
   "comparisons": 4,
   "above_estimate": 0,
   "below_estimate": 4
  },
  {
   "group": "All other years",
   "comparisons": 14,
   "above_estimate": 12,
   "below_estimate": 2
  },
  {
   "group": "Verified comparisons only",
   "comparisons": 16,
   "above_estimate": 11,
   "below_estimate": 5
  }
 ],
 "byTax": [
  {
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates",
   "comparisons": 4,
   "above_estimate": 4,
   "below_estimate": 0,
   "lowest_ratio": 1.243,
   "highest_ratio": 1.353,
   "result": "Above estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M",
   "comparisons": 2,
   "above_estimate": 2,
   "below_estimate": 0,
   "lowest_ratio": 1.208,
   "highest_ratio": 1.23,
   "result": "Above estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)",
   "comparisons": 2,
   "above_estimate": 2,
   "below_estimate": 0,
   "lowest_ratio": 1.37,
   "highest_ratio": 1.692,
   "result": "Above estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "New York 2009 temporary high-income surcharge",
   "comparisons": 1,
   "above_estimate": 0,
   "below_estimate": 1,
   "lowest_ratio": 0.9,
   "highest_ratio": 0.9,
   "result": "Below estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)",
   "comparisons": 2,
   "above_estimate": 0,
   "below_estimate": 2,
   "lowest_ratio": 0.556,
   "highest_ratio": 0.766,
   "result": "Below estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Oregon Measure 66 (2010) top-rate increase",
   "comparisons": 1,
   "above_estimate": 0,
   "below_estimate": 1,
   "lowest_ratio": 0.667,
   "highest_ratio": 0.667,
   "result": "Below estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021)",
   "comparisons": 2,
   "above_estimate": 2,
   "below_estimate": 0,
   "lowest_ratio": 1.374,
   "highest_ratio": 1.67,
   "result": "Above estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Metro Supportive Housing Services income tax (2021)",
   "comparisons": 1,
   "above_estimate": 0,
   "below_estimate": 1,
   "lowest_ratio": 0.868,
   "highest_ratio": 0.868,
   "result": "Below estimate in every comparison"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Washington capital gains tax (2021)",
   "comparisons": 2,
   "above_estimate": 1,
   "below_estimate": 1,
   "lowest_ratio": 0.842,
   "highest_ratio": 1.484,
   "result": "Mixed"
  },
  {
   "tax": "Washington 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1M (2025)",
   "comparisons": 1,
   "above_estimate": 1,
   "below_estimate": 0,
   "lowest_ratio": 2.198,
   "highest_ratio": 2.198,
   "result": "Above estimate in every comparison"
  }
 ],
 "erosion": [
  {
   "estimate_id": "rauh-shyu-y1",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012)",
   "study": "Rauh & Shyu (2024)",
   "measure": "Share of the expected windfall from the rate increase lost to behavioral responses in the first year (2013)",
   "percent": 45.2,
   "channel": "Reported income and migration (migration was 9.5% of the total)",
   "caveat": "Measured against a no-response counterfactual, not against an official forecast",
   "source_id": "rauh-shyu-2024"
  },
  {
   "estimate_id": "rauh-shyu-y2",
   "tax": "California Proposition 30 (2012)",
   "study": "Rauh & Shyu (2024)",
   "measure": "Same measure, within two years",
   "percent": 60.9,
   "channel": "Reported income and migration",
   "caveat": "Includes timing responses around the retroactive 2012 rate",
   "source_id": "rauh-shyu-2024"
  },
  {
   "estimate_id": "cir-pfa-2022",
   "tax": "Multnomah County Preschool for All (2021)",
   "study": "Conway, Iselin & Rork (2026, working paper)",
   "measure": "Share of static 2022 revenue lost to added out-migration",
   "percent": 8.5,
   "channel": "Migration only",
   "caveat": "The authors call it likely an upper bound",
   "source_id": "cir-2026"
  },
  {
   "estimate_id": "yv-nj-2006",
   "tax": "New Jersey 2004 rate increase over $500k",
   "study": "Young & Varner (2011)",
   "measure": "Annual migration revenue loss ($16.4M) as a share of the static yield ($1.08B, 2006); our calculation",
   "percent": 1.5,
   "channel": "Migration only",
   "caveat": "The static yield is an upper bound; reported-income responses were not measured",
   "source_id": "young-varner-2011"
  },
  {
   "estimate_id": "tufts-ma-proj",
   "tax": "Massachusetts 4% surtax (2023)",
   "study": "Tufts Center for State Policy Analysis (2022)",
   "measure": "Projected revenue cut from avoidance and migration (a projection, not a measurement)",
   "percent": 35,
   "channel": "Reported income (about 30%) and migration (about 5%)",
   "caveat": "FY2024 collections were about 1.7 times the resulting estimate",
   "source_id": "tufts-cspa-2022"
  },
  {
   "estimate_id": "wa-fn-6346",
   "tax": "Washington ESSB 6346 (2026)",
   "study": "Washington Department of Revenue fiscal note",
   "measure": "Behavioral response assumed in the official revenue estimate",
   "percent": 0,
   "channel": "None assumed",
   "caveat": "The note says affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income",
   "source_id": "wa-fn-6346-2026"
  }
 ]
}