{
 "limitations": [
  "DOR revises its totals as refunds and late payments post, so each figure is tied to an as-of date; the decile table (January 2025) and the collection totals (June 2026) are different snapshots.",
  "Tax year 2025 is an initial count and includes the 2.9% surcharge on gains over $1 million that took effect that year.",
  "DOR counts payments, not individual taxpayers.",
  "Fiscal-note estimates are by fiscal year or biennium and collections by tax year, so comparisons are approximate. Comparisons use the note's gross capital gains receipts, not its net bill total, which also subtracts B&O tax credits."
 ],
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": "dor-ty2025-collections",
   "name": "Washington Department of Revenue, Capital Gains Tax - Tax Year 2025 Initial Collections",
   "url": "https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/capital-gains-tax-tax-year-2025-initial-collections",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Net payments and number of net payments by tax year, 2022-2025, as of June 9, 2026; return and extension counts for tax year 2025.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; the page is linked, not hosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "The Department of Revenue administers and collects the tax and publishes these totals from its own payment records. Totals change as refunds and late payments post, so each figure is tied to its as-of date."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "dor-decile-table",
   "name": "Washington Department of Revenue, Research & Fiscal Analysis, Capital gains tax payments by decile (as of January 6, 2025)",
   "url": "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/CapGainsPmtsDecile.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Net payments by decile of payment size, and the total of the top 10 payments with DOR's stated share, for tax years 2022 and 2023 and fiscal years 2023 and 2024.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "DOR's research office compiled the table from payment records. Its tax-year totals ($780.4M for 2022, $416.7M for 2023) are earlier counts than DOR's June 2026 figures and differ because of later refunds and payments."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ofm-fn-5096",
   "name": "OFM Fiscal Note Package 63363, SSB 5096 (2021), capital gains tax, as passed",
   "url": "https://fnspublic.ofm.wa.gov/FNSPublicSearch/GetPDF?packageID=63363",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "The Department of Revenue's pre-enactment estimate by account: Education Legacy Trust $500M and school construction $27M in FY2023 ($527M gross), $1,028M and $134M in 2023-25, $1,070M and $188M in 2025-27, less B&O tax credits (net bill totals $442M, $974M, $1,053M); assumptions on taxpayers (about 7,000) and compliance.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Official fiscal note prepared by DOR for the Legislature before the vote. It grows 2018 capital gains with CBO realization forecasts and assumes no behavioral response other than charitable giving."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ofm-fn-5813",
   "name": "OFM Fiscal Note Package 75010, ESSB 5813 (2025), 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1 million",
   "url": "https://fnspublic.ofm.wa.gov/FNSPublicSearch/GetPDF?packageID=75010",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Estimate for the added 2.9% rate on gains over $1 million from tax year 2025: about $151.0M in FY2026 (Education Legacy Trust Account capital gains portion), about 900 taxpayers.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Official fiscal note prepared by DOR before the 2025 vote; the surcharge applied retroactively to January 1, 2025."
   }
  }
 ],
 "tables": [
  {
   "id": "cg-collections",
   "title": "Capital gains tax collections by tax year",
   "description": "Net capital gains tax payments by tax year with the original fiscal note estimate for comparison.",
   "artifactId": "cg-collections",
   "unitOfObservation": "Tax year",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "taxYear",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Tax year in which the gains were realized; payments are due the following April.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netCollectionsMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Net payments: payments received minus refunds issued, as of the asOf date.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": "As reported by DOR; tax year 2025 reported as $1.5 billion (rounded).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netPayments",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Number of net payments.",
     "units": "payments",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "asOf",
     "type": "date",
     "description": "Date of DOR's count.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "status",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Whether the total is final-to-date or an initial count.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "changeFromPriorYearPct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Percent change in net collections from the prior tax year.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "100 x (this year / prior year - 1), one decimal; blank for 2022.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "cg-estimates",
   "title": "2021 fiscal note estimates compared with collections",
   "description": "Fiscal note package 63363 estimated receipts by account, gross and net, against DOR net payments for the matching tax years.",
   "artifactId": "cg-estimates",
   "unitOfObservation": "Fiscal note period (fiscal year or biennium)",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "period",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Fiscal note period.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "taxYears",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Tax years whose April payments fall in the period.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "Fiscal year N matched to tax year N-1.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "eltaMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Estimated receipts to the Education Legacy Trust Account.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "cscMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Estimated receipts to the Common School Construction Account.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "grossCgEstimateMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Estimated gross capital gains tax receipts.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "eltaMillion + cscMillion.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "boCreditsMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Estimated B&O tax credits (GF-State and Workforce Education Investment Account), negative.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netBillImpactMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "The bill's net state revenue impact.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "grossCgEstimateMillion + boCreditsMillion; matches the note's totals ($442M, $974M, $1,053M).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "actualMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "DOR net capital gains tax payments for the matching tax years, as of June 9, 2026.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "Sum of netCollectionsMillion for taxYears; blank for 2025-27 (tax year 2026 not yet collected).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "actualToGrossRatio",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "actualMillion / grossCgEstimateMillion.",
     "units": "ratio",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "Rounded to 2 decimals.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections",
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "actualToNetRatio",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "actualMillion / netBillImpactMillion, for comparison only.",
     "units": "ratio",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "Rounded to 2 decimals.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-ty2025-collections",
      "ofm-fn-5096"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "note",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Comment.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fn-5813"
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "cg-concentration",
   "title": "Concentration of capital gains tax payments",
   "description": "Total net payments, the 10 largest payments, and the top decile of payments, by period.",
   "artifactId": "cg-concentration",
   "unitOfObservation": "Tax year or fiscal year",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "period",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Tax year or fiscal year covered.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "periodType",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "'taxYear' or 'fiscalYear'.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "asOf",
     "type": "date",
     "description": "Date DOR compiled the table.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netPaymentsCount",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Number of net payments (All accounts).",
     "units": "payments",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "totalNetPayments",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Total net payments (All accounts).",
     "units": "US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "top10Payments",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Total of the 10 largest payments, as stated in DOR's note 1 (rounded by DOR).",
     "units": "US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "top10SharePctReported",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "DOR's stated share of the total from the 10 largest payments.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "topDecileCount",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Number of payments in the top decile.",
     "units": "payments",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "topDecilePayments",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Net payments in the top decile.",
     "units": "US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "topDecileSharePct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Top-decile share of total net payments.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "100 x topDecilePayments / totalNetPayments, one decimal.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-decile-table"
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "events": [
  {
   "id": "surcharge-2025",
   "eventType": "policy",
   "date": "2025-01-01",
   "label": "2.9% surcharge on gains over $1M",
   "description": "ESSB 5813 added a 2.9% rate on Washington capital gains over $1 million, effective for tax year 2025 (payments due April 2026).",
   "sourceIds": [
    "ofm-fn-5813"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "analyses": [
  {
   "id": "collections-by-tax-year",
   "title": "Capital gains tax net collections by tax year, 2022-2025",
   "question": "How much did Washington's capital gains tax collect for each tax year, and how much did it change from one year to the next?",
   "operation": "netCollectionsMillion and changeFromPriorYearPct by tax year from the cg-collections table.",
   "parameters": {
    "table": "cg-collections"
   },
   "scope": "Washington capital gains excise tax (RCW 82.87), all payers, net of refunds as of June 9, 2026",
   "resultShape": "timeSeries",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "taxYear": "2022",
     "netCollectionsMillion": 782,
     "changeFromPriorYearPct": null
    },
    {
     "taxYear": "2023",
     "netCollectionsMillion": 394.7,
     "changeFromPriorYearPct": -49.5
    },
    {
     "taxYear": "2024",
     "netCollectionsMillion": 583.8,
     "changeFromPriorYearPct": 47.9
    },
    {
     "taxYear": "2025",
     "netCollectionsMillion": 1500,
     "changeFromPriorYearPct": 156.9
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Net collections: $782.0M (tax year 2022), $394.7M (2023, down 49.5%), $583.8M (2024, up 47.9%) and about $1.5B (2025, up about 157%, including the new 2.9% rate on gains over $1 million).",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "Change is computed from DOR's rounded totals; the 2025 total is DOR's rounded $1.5 billion, so its change is approximate."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "Tax year 2025 is an initial count: extended returns were due October 15, 2026, and estimated payments may be revised.",
    "Tax year 2025 includes the 2.9% surcharge on gains over $1 million (ESSB 5813), so it is not directly comparable with earlier years.",
    "DOR's totals for each year change as refunds and amendments post; earlier releases gave different figures (for example $840.3M for 2022 in June 2025)."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "payment-concentration",
   "title": "Share of capital gains tax collected from the 10 largest payments and the top decile",
   "question": "How much of Washington's capital gains tax revenue came from its largest payments?",
   "operation": "top10SharePctReported as stated by DOR; topDecileSharePct = topDecilePayments / totalNetPayments, from the cg-concentration table.",
   "parameters": {
    "table": "cg-concentration"
   },
   "scope": "DOR decile table as of January 6, 2025",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "period": "Tax year 2022",
     "totalNetMillion": 780.4,
     "top10Million": 394.3,
     "top10SharePct": 51,
     "topDecileCount": 341,
     "topDecileSharePct": 85.6
    },
    {
     "period": "Tax year 2023",
     "totalNetMillion": 416.7,
     "top10Million": 129.12,
     "top10SharePct": 31,
     "topDecileCount": 344,
     "topDecileSharePct": 73.5
    },
    {
     "period": "Fiscal year 2023",
     "totalNetMillion": 847.5,
     "top10Million": 461.63,
     "top10SharePct": 54,
     "topDecileCount": 317,
     "topDecileSharePct": 86.1
    },
    {
     "period": "Fiscal year 2024",
     "totalNetMillion": 360.6,
     "top10Million": 91.23,
     "top10SharePct": 25,
     "topDecileCount": 366,
     "topDecileSharePct": 78.3
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Tax year 2022: the 10 largest payments were $394.3M, 51% of $780.4M, and the top tenth of payments (341) supplied 85.6%. Tax year 2023: the 10 largest were $129.1M, 31% of $416.7M; the top tenth supplied 73.5%.",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "DOR counts payments, not people: one taxpayer can make more than one payment, and a joint return is one payment.",
    "The top-10 share is DOR's stated, rounded percentage; the top-decile share is our calculation from the same table."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "The decile table is an earlier count than DOR's June 2026 totals ($780.4M vs $782.0M for 2022; $416.7M vs $394.7M for 2023).",
    "DOR has not published a decile table for tax years 2024 or 2025."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "top10-share-of-drop",
   "title": "How much of the 2022-to-2023 drop came from the 10 largest payments",
   "question": "What share of the fall in capital gains tax collections from tax year 2022 to 2023 is accounted for by the 10 largest payments?",
   "operation": "(top10 TY2022 - top10 TY2023) / (total TY2022 - total TY2023), from the cg-concentration table.",
   "parameters": {
    "table": "cg-concentration",
    "periods": [
     "Tax year 2022",
     "Tax year 2023"
    ]
   },
   "scope": "DOR decile table as of January 6, 2025",
   "resultShape": "scalar",
   "structuredResult": {
    "top10DropMillion": 265.18,
    "totalDropMillion": 363.72,
    "top10ShareOfDropPct": 72.9
   },
   "displayResult": "The 10 largest payments fell by $265.2M, about 73% of the $363.7M total drop from tax year 2022 to 2023 (our calculation from DOR's decile table).",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "The 10 largest payments in each year need not come from the same taxpayers."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "Uses DOR's January 2025 decile counts, not the later June 2026 totals.",
    "Shows where the drop was concentrated, not why: market declines, timing of sales, and taxpayers leaving the state cannot be separated with this table."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "actual-vs-fiscal-note",
   "title": "Capital gains tax collections compared with the 2021 fiscal note",
   "question": "How did collections compare with the Department of Revenue's pre-enactment estimate of capital gains tax receipts?",
   "operation": "actualMillion / grossCgEstimateMillion, where gross = Education Legacy Trust + Common School Construction receipts in fiscal note package 63363, and actual = DOR net payments for the tax years whose April payments fall in that period. The ratio to the bill's net total (after B&O credits) is shown for comparison.",
   "parameters": {
    "table": "cg-estimates"
   },
   "scope": "Fiscal note periods FY2023 and 2023-25 (tax years 2022-2024); 2025-27 shown without a ratio",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "period": "FY2023",
     "taxYears": "2022",
     "grossCgEstimateMillion": 527,
     "netBillImpactMillion": 442,
     "actualMillion": 782,
     "actualToGrossRatio": 1.48,
     "actualToNetRatio": 1.77
    },
    {
     "period": "2023-25 biennium",
     "taxYears": "2023-2024",
     "grossCgEstimateMillion": 1162,
     "netBillImpactMillion": 974,
     "actualMillion": 978.5,
     "actualToGrossRatio": 0.84,
     "actualToNetRatio": 1
    },
    {
     "period": "2025-27 biennium",
     "taxYears": "2025-2026",
     "grossCgEstimateMillion": 1258,
     "netBillImpactMillion": 1053,
     "actualMillion": null,
     "actualToGrossRatio": null,
     "actualToNetRatio": null
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Against the fiscal note's gross capital gains receipts, tax year 2022 collections ($782.0M) were 1.48 times the FY2023 estimate ($527M), and tax years 2023-2024 combined ($978.5M) were 0.84 times the 2023-25 estimate ($1,162M). Tax year 2025 alone ($1.5B) already exceeds the whole 2025-27 estimate ($1,258M). Against the bill's net total (which subtracts B&O credits) the ratios would be 1.77 and 1.00.",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "The fiscal note's $442M FY2023 figure is the whole bill's net state impact: $500M to the Education Legacy Trust Account plus $27M to school construction, minus $85M of B&O tax credits. Those credits reduce B&O receipts, not capital gains tax payments, so the like-for-like estimate for DOR's capital gains payments is the gross $527M.",
    "The note splits gross receipts by fiscal year only for FY2023; later years are biennial, so tax years 2023 and 2024 are compared together."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "Fiscal-year and tax-year totals are not identical: some payments and refunds fall in other fiscal years.",
    "Tax year 2025 includes a 2.9% surcharge enacted after the 2021 estimate (estimated separately at about $151M for FY2026)."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  }
 ],
 "forecasts": [
  {
   "id": "fn-5096-fy2023",
   "forecaster": "Washington Department of Revenue (fiscal note for SSB 5096)",
   "madeOn": "2021-06-22",
   "metric": "Gross capital gains tax receipts, FY2023 (tax year 2022 payments)",
   "unit": "million US dollars",
   "forecastValue": 527,
   "horizon": "FY2023 (tax year 2022)",
   "sourceId": "ofm-fn-5096",
   "outcome": {
    "analysisId": "actual-vs-fiscal-note",
    "observedValue": 782,
    "observedPeriod": "Tax year 2022, net payments as of June 9, 2026"
   },
   "note": "Gross = $500M Education Legacy Trust + $27M school construction. The bill's net total ($442M) subtracts B&O tax credits, which do not reduce capital gains payments. The note estimates fiscal-year cash; DOR reports tax-year net payments."
  },
  {
   "id": "fn-5096-2023-25",
   "forecaster": "Washington Department of Revenue (fiscal note for SSB 5096)",
   "madeOn": "2021-06-22",
   "metric": "Gross capital gains tax receipts, 2023-25 biennium (tax years 2023 and 2024)",
   "unit": "million US dollars",
   "forecastValue": 1162,
   "horizon": "2023-25 biennium (tax years 2023-2024)",
   "sourceId": "ofm-fn-5096",
   "outcome": {
    "analysisId": "actual-vs-fiscal-note",
    "observedValue": 978.5,
    "observedPeriod": "Tax years 2023 and 2024 combined, net payments as of June 9, 2026"
   },
   "note": "Gross = $1,028M Education Legacy Trust + $134M school construction; the bill's net total ($974M) subtracts $188M of B&O credits. The note gives no fiscal-year split of gross receipts for this biennium."
  }
 ]
}