{
 "limitations": [
  "IRS publishes no Washington $1M+ class for 2002-2009; those rows give the $200,000-or-more class, and U.S. $1M+ data stands in for the shape of the 2001-02 and 2007-09 downturns.",
  "The 1997-2001 Washington IRS files are a different product (returns processed in a calendar year, unedited) from the 2010+ tax-year tables.",
  "Returns are not households, and the $1M class is in nominal dollars.",
  "The back-cast and crash scenarios are FactHub illustrations, not forecasts, and ignore behavioral responses, compliance and the law's capital-gains credit except as noted.",
  "Revenue by source mixes DOR GAAP figures with ERFC cash figures for two years, and total general fund revenue changes ERFC definition at FY2005."
 ],
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": "irs-soi-ht2",
   "name": "IRS Statistics of Income, Historic Table 2: Individual income and tax data by state and size of adjusted gross income (Washington files, 1997-2023)",
   "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-historic-table-2",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Washington returns, AGI, wages, net capital gain, partnership/S-corporation and business income by AGI class; the $1M-or-more class for 1997-2001 and 2010-2023, $200,000-or-more for 2002-2009. Each row's file is in the sourceFile column.",
   "licenseName": "Public domain (U.S. government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Public domain; values restated, files linked.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Compiled by the IRS from individual income tax returns. The 1997-2001 state files are unedited counts of returns processed in each calendar year; later files are tax-year tabulations with counts rounded to the nearest 10 from 2015."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "irs-soi-table14",
   "name": "IRS Statistics of Income, Table 1.4: All returns, sources of income, by size of adjusted gross income (U.S., 1998-2023)",
   "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-individual-statistical-tables-by-size-of-adjusted-gross-income",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "U.S. returns, AGI, wages, net capital gain and pass-through income for AGI of $1M or more, used to show the 2002-2009 years for which no Washington $1M class exists.",
   "licenseName": "Public domain (U.S. government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Public domain; values restated, files linked.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "National sample-based estimates from the IRS individual complete report. Net capital gain and pass-through are FactHub sums of the gain and loss columns, matching the Historic Table 2 U.S. totals within about 1% in 2010-2023."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "dor-tax-statistics",
   "name": "Washington Department of Revenue, Tax Statistics, Table 3: Washington State General Fund Revenues (fiscal years 1998-2024)",
   "url": "https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/tax-statistics",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Retail sales, business and occupation and state property tax revenue to the general fund by fiscal year (GAAP basis, from the state's annual financial report). Each year's file is in the source column.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; files linked.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "DOR's annual statistical report restating general fund revenue from the state's audited financial statements. FY2002 and FY2025 come from ERFC cash tables because DOR's tables for those years were not available."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09",
   "name": "Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Revenue Review, September 25, 2026",
   "url": "https://erfc.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/rev20260925.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Total general fund-state collections by fiscal year, FY2005-FY2025 (current definition, cash), and the September 2026 forecast of the individual income tax used as a baseline in the crash scenarios.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "ERFC is the state's official, bipartisan revenue forecasting body. Its forecast is the basis for the budget; it published no separate risk analysis of the new income tax."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "erfc-june-2010",
   "name": "Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2010 (Table 3.15)",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100708001207/http://www.erfc.wa.gov/publications/documents/jun10pub.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Total general fund-state collections (GF-S plus related fund, cash) for fiscal years 1998-2004.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; archived copy linked.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "ERFC historical table under the definition used in 2010; it differs from the current definition, so FY1998-2004 totals are not spliced to FY2005 onward for year-over-year change."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ofm-fn-6346",
   "name": "OFM Fiscal Note Package 77653, ESSB 6346 (2026), tax on income over $1 million",
   "url": "https://fnspublic.ofm.wa.gov/FNSPublicSearch/GetPDF?packageID=77653",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "The Department of Revenue's estimate of the income tax (FY2030 $3.732B gross), used as the second baseline in the crash scenarios.",
   "licenseName": "Public record of a Washington state agency",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Official fiscal note for the enacted bill. It is a static estimate: it states that affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income."
   }
  }
 ],
 "tables": [
  {
   "id": "irs-high-income",
   "title": "IRS returns in the top AGI class: Washington and U.S.",
   "description": "Returns, AGI and income components for the top AGI class by tax year and geography.",
   "artifactId": "irs-high-income",
   "unitOfObservation": "Tax year x geography",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "taxYear",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Tax year.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "geography",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "WA (Historic Table 2, Washington), US (Table 1.4) or US_HT2 (Historic Table 2, United States).",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "topClass",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Top AGI class in the file: '1M+' or '200k+' (WA 2002-2009).",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "allReturns",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "All returns in the geography.",
     "units": "returns",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "allAgiBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "AGI of all returns.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": "Source thousands / 1e6.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "returns1mPlus",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Returns in the top class.",
     "units": "returns",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "agi1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "AGI of the top class.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": "Source thousands / 1e6.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "wages1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Salaries and wages of the top class.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netCapitalGain1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Net capital gain (less loss) in AGI of the top class.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": "US Table 1.4: Schedule D gain minus loss plus capital gain distributions.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "partnershipSCorp1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Partnership and S-corporation net income (less loss); from 2009.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "businessIncome1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Business or profession net income (less loss).",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "sourceFile",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Exact IRS file for the row.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "wa-revenue-by-source",
   "title": "Washington general fund revenue by source",
   "description": "Retail sales, B&O and state property tax revenue and total general fund-state collections by fiscal year.",
   "artifactId": "wa-revenue-by-source",
   "unitOfObservation": "State fiscal year (July-June)",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "fiscalYear",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "State fiscal year ending June 30.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-tax-statistics"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "retailSalesMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Retail sales tax to the general fund.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-tax-statistics",
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "boMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Business and occupation tax to the general fund.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-tax-statistics",
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "statePropertyMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "State property tax levy to the general fund.",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-tax-statistics",
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "totalGfsMillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Total general fund-state collections (ERFC, cash).",
     "units": "million US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": "FY1998-2004 from ERFC June 2010 (GF-S plus related fund); FY2005-2025 from ERFC September 2026 (current definition).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-june-2010",
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "source",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Document and URL for each row's values.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "dor-tax-statistics",
      "erfc-june-2010",
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09"
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "backcast",
   "title": "Illustrative back-cast of a 9.9% tax on income over $1M",
   "description": "FactHub illustration, not a forecast.",
   "artifactId": "backcast",
   "unitOfObservation": "Tax year x geography",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "taxYear",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Tax year.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "geography",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "WA or US.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "returns1mPlus",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "Returns with AGI of $1M or more.",
     "units": "returns",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "agi1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "AGI of $1M+ returns.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netCapitalGain1mPlusBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Net capital gain of $1M+ returns.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "excessOver1mBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "AGI above $1M per return, summed.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "agi1mPlusBillion - returns1mPlus x $1M.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "illustrativeTaxBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "9.9% of the excess.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": "0.099 x excessOver1mBillion; gross and static.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "9.9% of the excess after removing net capital gain.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": "0.099 x max(0, excessOver1mBillion - netCapitalGain1mPlusBillion).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "agiYoYPct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Change in AGI from the prior year.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "Blank when the prior year has no $1M class.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "netCgYoYPct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Change in net capital gain from the prior year.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "illustrativeTaxYoYPct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Change in the illustrative tax from the prior year.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": true,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "crash-scenarios",
   "title": "Illustrative crash scenarios",
   "description": "FactHub illustration, not a forecast.",
   "artifactId": "crash-scenarios",
   "unitOfObservation": "Scenario x baseline",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "scenario",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Historical episode and years used.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "baseline",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Official revenue estimate the drop is applied to.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09",
      "ofm-fn-6346"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "excessBaseDropPct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Drop in the excess-over-$1M base over the episode.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "1 - illustrativeTax(end) / illustrativeTax(start).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "baselineAnnualBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Baseline annual revenue.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": "ERFC Sept 2026 2029-31 biennium $9.435B / 2; fiscal note FY2030 $3.732B.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09",
      "ofm-fn-6346"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "revenueAfterBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Baseline x (1 - drop).",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09",
      "ofm-fn-6346"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "annualHitBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Baseline x drop (gross base).",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09",
      "ofm-fn-6346"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "exNetCgBaseDropPct",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Drop in the base excluding net capital gains.",
     "units": "percent",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "irs-soi-ht2",
      "irs-soi-table14"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Baseline x drop excluding net capital gains.",
     "units": "billion US dollars (nominal)",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": null,
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-revenue-review-2026-09",
      "ofm-fn-6346"
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "analyses": [
  {
   "id": "agi-vs-revenue-change",
   "title": "Year-over-year change: Washington $1M+ AGI vs. state sales tax and general fund revenue",
   "question": "How much more does the income of Washington's $1M+ filers swing from year to year than the state's main existing revenue?",
   "operation": "Percent change from the prior year in agi1mPlusBillion (WA, $1M+ class), retailSalesMillion and totalGfsMillion.",
   "parameters": {
    "tables": [
     "irs-high-income",
     "wa-revenue-by-source"
    ]
   },
   "scope": "Washington; tax years for AGI, state fiscal years for revenue, 1998-2025",
   "resultShape": "timeSeries",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "year": 1998,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 66.5
    },
    {
     "year": 1999,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 54.5
    },
    {
     "year": 1999,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 3.5
    },
    {
     "year": 1999,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 7.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2000,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": -8.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2000,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 6.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2000,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 8.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2001,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": -44.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2001,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 4.4
    },
    {
     "year": 2001,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 1.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2002,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2002,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 0.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2002,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": -1.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2003,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2003,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 0.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2003,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 2.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2004,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2004,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 5.4
    },
    {
     "year": 2004,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 3.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2005,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2005,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2005,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 7.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2006,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2006,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 9.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2006,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 10.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2007,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2007,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 8
    },
    {
     "year": 2007,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 6.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2008,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2008,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 1.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2008,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 5.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2009,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2009,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": -9.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2009,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": -12.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2010,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2010,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": -4.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2010,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": -5.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2011,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 12.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2011,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 7.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2011,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 5.4
    },
    {
     "year": 2012,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 56.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2012,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 1.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2012,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 1.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2013,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": -24.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2013,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 6.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2013,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 4.6
    },
    {
     "year": 2014,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 39.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2014,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 3.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2014,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 8.4
    },
    {
     "year": 2015,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 9.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2015,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 5.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2015,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 7.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2016,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 14.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2016,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 7.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2016,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 8.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2017,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 7
    },
    {
     "year": 2017,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 6.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2017,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 6.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2018,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 14.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2018,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 10
    },
    {
     "year": 2018,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 7.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2019,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 8.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2019,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 3.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2019,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 8.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2020,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 22.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2020,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 6.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2020,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 0.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2021,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": 59.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2021,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 13.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2021,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 12.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2022,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": -34
    },
    {
     "year": 2022,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 11.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2022,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 11.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2023,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": -8.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2023,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 3.1
    },
    {
     "year": 2023,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 4.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2024,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2024,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 0.4
    },
    {
     "year": 2024,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 0
    },
    {
     "year": 2025,
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI (tax year)",
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2025,
     "series": "WA general fund revenue (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 3.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2025,
     "series": "WA retail sales tax (fiscal year)",
     "changePct": 1.7
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Washington $1M+ AGI fell 44.6% in 2001 and 34.0% in 2022 and rose by more than half in 1998, 1999, 2012 and 2021. The general fund's worst year was -9.6% (FY2009) and retail sales tax's -12.5% (FY2009).",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "AGI is by tax year (calendar year); revenue is by state fiscal year (July-June). Plotted on the same year axis for comparison of magnitude, not timing.",
    "No Washington $1M+ class exists for 2002-2009, so those changes (and 2010's) are missing, not zero.",
    "General fund revenue for FY2005 is missing because ERFC's series changes definition between FY2004 and FY2005."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "1997-2001 IRS state files count returns processed in each calendar year, a different product from the 2010+ tax-year tables.",
    "The $1M threshold is nominal, so more returns cross it over time from inflation alone.",
    "Sales tax is DOR GAAP-basis revenue; total general fund is ERFC cash collections."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "volatility-summary",
   "title": "Volatility of the $1M+ income base compared with Washington's existing taxes",
   "question": "How large are typical year-to-year swings in each series?",
   "operation": "Sample standard deviation of year-over-year percent changes over all available years, plus the worst and best year and the number of declines (volatility.js).",
   "parameters": {
    "script": "volatility.js"
   },
   "scope": "Washington, all available years per series",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "series": "Illustrative 9.9% tax on WA income over $1M (gross)",
     "basis": "IRS tax years 1998-2001, 2011-2023",
     "years": 17,
     "sdChangePct": 38.37,
     "worstChangePct": -49.2,
     "bestChangePct": 82.5,
     "yearsDown": 5
    },
    {
     "series": "Illustrative tax, excluding net capital gains",
     "basis": "IRS tax years 1998-2001, 2011-2023",
     "years": 17,
     "sdChangePct": 32.34,
     "worstChangePct": -41.8,
     "bestChangePct": 91.9,
     "yearsDown": 4
    },
    {
     "series": "WA $1M+ AGI",
     "basis": "IRS tax years 1998-2001, 2011-2023",
     "years": 17,
     "sdChangePct": 32.9,
     "worstChangePct": -44.6,
     "bestChangePct": 66.5,
     "yearsDown": 5
    },
    {
     "series": "WA retail sales tax",
     "basis": "Fiscal years 1999-2025",
     "years": 27,
     "sdChangePct": 5.41,
     "worstChangePct": -12.5,
     "bestChangePct": 12.2,
     "yearsDown": 3
    },
    {
     "series": "WA B&O tax",
     "basis": "Fiscal years 1999-2025",
     "years": 27,
     "sdChangePct": 5.79,
     "worstChangePct": -8.3,
     "bestChangePct": 18.5,
     "yearsDown": 6
    },
    {
     "series": "WA total general fund revenue",
     "basis": "Fiscal years 1999-2025 except 2005",
     "years": 26,
     "sdChangePct": 4.78,
     "worstChangePct": -9.6,
     "bestChangePct": 13.3,
     "yearsDown": 2
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Typical yearly swing (standard deviation of changes): $1M+ AGI 32.9%; illustrative tax 38.37% (32.34% without capital gains); retail sales tax 5.41%; B&O 5.79%; total general fund 4.78%.",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "State property tax is omitted from the table because its swings come from definitional changes (FY2010 reclassification, FY2018-21 McCleary levy swap); the levy is limited to 1% growth and did not fall in the recession."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "The $1M+ series has 17 annual changes with an eight-year gap that includes the 2007-2009 recession; the revenue series have 26-27.",
    "Revenue series include the effects of tax-law changes (for example the 2010 B&O increase), which add to their measured volatility."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "illustrative-backcast",
   "title": "Illustrative back-cast: a 9.9% tax on Washington income over $1M, 1997-2023",
   "question": "What would a 9.9% tax on income above $1M have raised from Washington's $1M+ filers each year, and how much would it have swung?",
   "operation": "illustrativeTaxBillion = 0.099 x (agi1mPlusBillion - returns1mPlus x $1M); illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion removes net capital gain from the excess first.",
   "parameters": {
    "table": "backcast",
    "rate": 0.099,
    "threshold": 1000000
   },
   "scope": "Washington $1M+ AGI class, tax years with a $1M class",
   "resultShape": "timeSeries",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "year": 1997,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 0.601,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.271,
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 1998,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 1.096,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.52,
     "changePct": 82.5
    },
    {
     "year": 1999,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 1.784,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.953,
     "changePct": 62.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2000,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 1.574,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.766,
     "changePct": -11.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2001,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 0.8,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.446,
     "changePct": -49.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2010,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 1.093,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.628,
     "changePct": null
    },
    {
     "year": 2011,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 1.259,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.698,
     "changePct": 15.3
    },
    {
     "year": 2012,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 2.089,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.817,
     "changePct": 65.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2013,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 1.479,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.815,
     "changePct": -29.2
    },
    {
     "year": 2014,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 2.154,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 0.973,
     "changePct": 45.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2015,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 2.346,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 1.09,
     "changePct": 8.9
    },
    {
     "year": 2016,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 2.755,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 1.148,
     "changePct": 17.4
    },
    {
     "year": 2017,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 2.831,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 1.236,
     "changePct": 2.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2018,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 3.105,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 1.481,
     "changePct": 9.7
    },
    {
     "year": 2019,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 3.492,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 1.699,
     "changePct": 12.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2020,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 4.297,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 1.901,
     "changePct": 23
    },
    {
     "year": 2021,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 7.037,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 2.574,
     "changePct": 63.8
    },
    {
     "year": 2022,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 4.398,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 2.2,
     "changePct": -37.5
    },
    {
     "year": 2023,
     "illustrativeTaxBillion": 3.685,
     "illustrativeTaxExNetCgBillion": 2.521,
     "changePct": -16.2
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Illustration only: about $1.57B (2000) to $0.80B (2001, -49%); $7.04B (2021) to $4.40B (2022, -38%) to $3.69B (2023). Without net capital gains: -42% in 2001, -15% in 2022, +15% in 2023.",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "ESSB 6346 removes long-term capital gains from its base and adds back only gains taxed by the capital gains tax, with a credit for that tax (secs. 302 and 205). The variant without net capital gains is therefore closer to the income tax alone; it also removes short-term gains, which stay in the base, so it understates the tax's base somewhat."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "Not a forecast. Ignores compliance, the 4.71% enforcement adjustment, the shared $1M deduction for couples, inflation indexing and any behavioral response.",
    "Returns are not households; nominal $1M threshold in every year."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "crash-scenarios",
   "title": "Illustrative crash scenarios for the millionaires tax",
   "question": "If the $1M+ income base fell as it did in 2001, 2008-09 or 2022, how much revenue would the tax lose a year against official baselines?",
   "operation": "Annual hit = baseline x historical % drop in the excess-over-$1M base (gross and excluding net capital gains). Baselines: ERFC September 2026 FY2030-31 average ($4.72B) and fiscal note FY2030 ($3.732B).",
   "parameters": {
    "table": "crash-scenarios"
   },
   "scope": "Illustration for the first full years of the tax",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "scenario": "2022-style (WA, TY2021 to TY2022)",
     "baseline": "ERFC Sept 2026, FY30-31 average",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 4.72,
     "grossDropPct": 37.5,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.77,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 14.5,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.68
    },
    {
     "scenario": "2022-style (WA, TY2021 to TY2022)",
     "baseline": "Fiscal note pkg 77653, FY30",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 3.73,
     "grossDropPct": 37.5,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.4,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 14.5,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.54
    },
    {
     "scenario": "2022-23 two-year (WA, TY2021 to TY2023)",
     "baseline": "ERFC Sept 2026, FY30-31 average",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 4.72,
     "grossDropPct": 47.6,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 2.25,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 2.1,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.1
    },
    {
     "scenario": "2022-23 two-year (WA, TY2021 to TY2023)",
     "baseline": "Fiscal note pkg 77653, FY30",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 3.73,
     "grossDropPct": 47.6,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.78,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 2.1,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.08
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Dot-com (WA, TY2000 to TY2001)",
     "baseline": "ERFC Sept 2026, FY30-31 average",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 4.72,
     "grossDropPct": 49.2,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 2.32,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 41.8,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 1.97
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Dot-com (WA, TY2000 to TY2001)",
     "baseline": "Fiscal note pkg 77653, FY30",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 3.73,
     "grossDropPct": 49.2,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.84,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 41.8,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 1.56
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Dot-com peak to trough (US $1M+, TY2000 to TY2002)",
     "baseline": "ERFC Sept 2026, FY30-31 average",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 4.72,
     "grossDropPct": 46.9,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 2.21,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 22.6,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 1.07
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Dot-com peak to trough (US $1M+, TY2000 to TY2002)",
     "baseline": "Fiscal note pkg 77653, FY30",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 3.73,
     "grossDropPct": 46.9,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.75,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 22.6,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.84
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Great Recession (US $1M+, TY2007 to TY2009)",
     "baseline": "ERFC Sept 2026, FY30-31 average",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 4.72,
     "grossDropPct": 51.4,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 2.42,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 21.4,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 1.01
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Great Recession (US $1M+, TY2007 to TY2009)",
     "baseline": "Fiscal note pkg 77653, FY30",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 3.73,
     "grossDropPct": 51.4,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.92,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 21.4,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.8
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Great Recession, first year (US $1M+, TY2007 to TY2008)",
     "baseline": "ERFC Sept 2026, FY30-31 average",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 4.72,
     "grossDropPct": 25.2,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 1.19,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 1,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.05
    },
    {
     "scenario": "Great Recession, first year (US $1M+, TY2007 to TY2008)",
     "baseline": "Fiscal note pkg 77653, FY30",
     "baselineAnnualBillion": 3.73,
     "grossDropPct": 25.2,
     "grossAnnualHitBillion": 0.94,
     "exNetCgDropPct": 1,
     "exNetCgAnnualHitBillion": 0.04
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Illustration only. Income tax alone (excluding capital gains): about $0.5-0.7B a year in a 2022-style year, $1.6-2.0B in a 2001-style year, $0.8-1.0B a year over a 2007-09-style downturn. Counting all income over $1M, which is closer to total state revenue from top earners with the capital gains tax: $1.2-2.4B.",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "2001 and 2022 scenarios use Washington data; 2000-02 and 2007-09 use U.S. $1M+ data because no Washington $1M class exists for those years."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "Not a forecast. A future downturn may be larger or smaller and may hit wages, options or gains differently.",
    "Baselines are themselves estimates; ERFC raised its first-year estimate 30% between June and September 2026."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z"
  }
 ]
}