{
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": "ofm-fiscal-note-essb-6346",
   "name": "Multiple Agency Fiscal Note Summary, ESSB 6346 (2026), Tax on millionaires, OFM Fiscal Note package 77653",
   "url": "https://fnspublic.ofm.wa.gov/FNSPublicSearch/GetPDF?packageID=77653",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Fiscal note gross \"Tax on Income\" line and whole-bill net revenue by fiscal year, FY2026-2035.",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Prepared by the Department of Revenue and published by the Office of Financial Management for the Legislature in March 2026. States its assumption that affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ofm-fis-i645",
   "name": "Fiscal Impact Statement for Initiative 645, Office of Financial Management (July 2026)",
   "url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-07/FIS%20-%20Initiative%20645%20-%20FINAL.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Revenue lost by fiscal year if I-645 passes (Table 1).",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Required by RCW 29A.72.025 and printed in the voters' pamphlet. Covers SFY2027-2031 only and excludes effects that depend on future legislative action."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "erfc-sept-2026-publication",
   "name": "Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2026 (Vol. LXII, No. 3), Economic and Revenue Forecast Council",
   "url": "https://erfc.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-10/sep26pub.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Individual Income Tax 2027-29 biennium forecast, June and September (Table 3.7); General Fund-State detail by fiscal year (Table 3.9).",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "ERFC is the state's official, bipartisan revenue forecaster; its forecast is the legal basis for the state budget. Forecast adopted September 25, 2026."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "erfc-sept-2026-revenue-review",
   "name": "Revenue Review, September 25, 2026, Economic and Revenue Forecast Council",
   "url": "https://erfc.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/rev20260925.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Fair Start for Kids Account forecast by fiscal year (5% of prior-year income-tax collections): FY2030 $175.2 million, FY2031 $251.6 million; June-to-September revisions.",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Official ERFC presentation of the September 2026 revenue forecast."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "erfc-outlook-apr-2026",
   "name": "Outlook for the Enacted 2026 Supplemental Omnibus Operating Budget (ESSB 5998), April 22, 2026, Economic and Revenue Forecast Council",
   "url": "https://erfc.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-04/20260422_Enacted_Sup_BO_Adopted.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "NGF-O projected ending balance by fiscal year and biennium.",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "The four-year balanced-budget outlook required by RCW 43.88.055, adopted by ERFC."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "erfc-outlook-method-apr-2026",
   "name": "Enacted 2026 Supplemental Budget Outlook Methodology, April 22, 2026, Economic and Revenue Forecast Council",
   "url": "https://erfc.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-04/20260422_Enacted_Sup_BO_Adopted_%20Metho_Final.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Revenue legislation counted in the outlook (ESSB 6346: -$46,400 thousand in 2025-27, +$2,309,180 thousand in 2027-29); non-mandatory FY2029 expenditures for free school meals ($140 million) and city and county fiscal health ($200 million).",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "government",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Methodology document accompanying the adopted outlook."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "wrc-revenue-sept-2026",
   "name": "Revenues for 2025-27 and 2027-29 are still lower than expected when 2026 budget was adopted, but income tax revenue estimates are increased going forward, Washington Research Council (Sept. 25, 2026)",
   "url": "https://researchcouncil.org/revenues-for-2025-27-and-2027-29-are-still-lower-than-expected-when-2026-budget-was-adopted-but-income-tax-revenue-estimates-are-increased-going-forward/",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "September 2026 income-tax forecast by biennium ($3.503 billion 2027-29, $9.435 billion 2029-31) and change from June.",
   "licenseName": "All rights reserved (quoted under fair use)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "advocacy",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Business-funded nonpartisan research group that has published analysis critical of the income tax; here it only restates ERFC forecast figures, which match ERFC Table 3.7 for 2027-29."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "wrc-i645-brief",
   "name": "New brief: I-645: Repealing the State Individual Income Tax, Washington Research Council (Sept. 22, 2026)",
   "url": "https://researchcouncil.org/new-brief-i-645-repealing-the-state-individual-income-tax/",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "States that no current appropriations rely on the revenue and that the current outlook assumes $2.698 billion of income-tax revenue in 2027-29.",
   "licenseName": "All rights reserved (quoted under fair use)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "advocacy",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Business-funded nonpartisan research group; it takes no position on I-645 in this brief."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "voters-pamphlet-i645",
   "name": "2026 General Election Voters' Pamphlet, Initiative Measure No. IP26-645, Washington Secretary of State",
   "url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/IP26-645%20VP%20page%209.17.pdf",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Arguments for and against I-645 and rebuttals, written by each campaign committee.",
   "licenseName": "Public record (Washington State government work)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "partyToDispute",
    "interest": "aligned",
    "note": "The Secretary of State prints the statements as submitted; each argument is written by the committee for or against the measure and is not fact-checked by the state."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "no645-home",
   "name": "No on 645 campaign home page",
   "url": "https://no645.com/",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Campaign wording of the $13 billion claim.",
   "licenseName": "All rights reserved (quoted under fair use)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "partyToDispute",
    "interest": "aligned",
    "note": "Official site of the committee opposing I-645, funded mostly by labor unions (PDC)."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "jayapal-x-post",
   "name": "Post by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (@PramilaJayapal) on X, Sept. 26, 2026",
   "url": "https://x.com/PramilaJayapal/status/2103850848791003595",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Jayapal's \"$300 billion tax break\" statement.",
   "licenseName": "All rights reserved (quoted under fair use)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "readUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261022020509/https://cdn.syndication.twimg.com/tweet-result?id=2103850848791003595%26lang=en%26token=4",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "partyToDispute",
    "interest": "aligned",
    "note": "Personal campaign account of the U.S. representative for WA-07, who opposes I-645. x.com blocks automated reading; the archived copy of X's own embed record shows the same text and that the post was not edited."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seattle-red-heywood-2026-07-19",
   "name": "Heywood says I-645 fiscal impact statement is premature, vows court challenge, Seattle Red (July 19, 2026)",
   "url": "https://seattlered.com/politics/heywood-i-645-fiscal-impact-statement-court-challenge/4119469",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Brian Heywood quoted on K-12 funding.",
   "licenseName": "All rights reserved (quoted under fair use)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "news",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Conservative talk-radio station website; quotes Heywood from an on-air interview on The Jason Rantz Show."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "kuow-2026-10-08",
   "name": "The millionaires tax is on the WA ballot this fall. Both sides make their case, KUOW (Oct. 8, 2026)",
   "url": "https://www.kuow.org/elections/2026-10-08/the-millionaires-tax-is-on-the-wa-ballot-this-fall-both-sides-make-their-case",
   "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21",
   "role": "Interview transcript excerpts with Rian Watt (No) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (Yes).",
   "licenseName": "All rights reserved (quoted under fair use)",
   "licenseUrl": null,
   "redistribution": "Figures quoted with attribution; source file linked, not rehosted.",
   "reliability": {
    "publisherKind": "news",
    "interest": "none",
    "note": "Seattle public radio station (NPR member); edited transcript of its Soundside program."
   }
  }
 ],
 "tables": [
  {
   "id": "estimates-by-fy",
   "title": "Gross income-tax revenue by fiscal year, by estimate",
   "description": "Each official estimate of gross collections from the 9.9% tax, by state fiscal year.",
   "artifactId": "estimates-by-fy",
   "unitOfObservation": "One estimate for one state fiscal year",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "estimate_id",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Short id of the estimate.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "estimate_name",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Estimate and its publication month.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "publisher",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Agency that published the estimate.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "published_date",
     "type": "date",
     "description": "Date the estimate was adopted or published.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "fiscal_year",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "State fiscal year ending June 30 of this year.",
     "units": "year",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "gross_income_tax_musd",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Gross income-tax collections (before the 5% Fair Start transfer and before any offsetting tax relief).",
     "units": "millions of US dollars, cash basis",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": "Observed rows are printed in the source; derived rows are computed in build.js as described in the note column.",
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fiscal-note-essb-6346",
      "ofm-fis-i645",
      "erfc-sept-2026-publication",
      "erfc-sept-2026-revenue-review",
      "wrc-revenue-sept-2026"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "value_type",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "\"observed\" if printed in the source, \"derived\" if our calculation.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "name": "note",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Exact line in the source, or the calculation for a derived value.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "fiscal-note-net-vs-gross",
   "title": "Fiscal note: gross income tax vs whole-bill net revenue",
   "description": "ESSB 6346 also cut sales and B&O taxes starting in 2029. Net state revenue is the gross income tax minus that relief (Working Families Tax Credit expansion is spending, not included).",
   "artifactId": "fiscal-note-net-vs-gross",
   "unitOfObservation": "One state fiscal year",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "fiscal_year",
     "type": "integer",
     "description": "State fiscal year.",
     "units": "year",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "gross_income_tax_musd",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Fiscal note Tax on Income line (0 before FY2029).",
     "units": "millions of US dollars",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fiscal-note-essb-6346"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "net_state_revenue_musd",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Fiscal note total state revenue impact of the whole bill.",
     "units": "millions of US dollars",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "sourceIds": [
      "ofm-fiscal-note-essb-6346"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "revenue_side_relief_musd",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Net minus gross: revenue given up through the bill's tax relief (negative).",
     "units": "millions of US dollars",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived",
     "derivation": "net_state_revenue_musd - gross_income_tax_musd"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "outlook-2027-29",
   "title": "2027-29 budget outlook and the income tax",
   "description": "The enacted 2026 supplemental outlook's 2027-29 ending balance, what it counts from ESSB 6346, and the balance without it.",
   "artifactId": "outlook-2027-29",
   "unitOfObservation": "One outlook line item",
   "fields": [
    {
     "name": "item",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Outlook line or calculation.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "name": "value_musd",
     "type": "number",
     "description": "Value.",
     "units": "millions of US dollars",
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "estimated",
     "derivation": "Derived rows subtract the income tax from the ending balance (see item text).",
     "sourceIds": [
      "erfc-outlook-apr-2026",
      "erfc-outlook-method-apr-2026",
      "wrc-i645-brief"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "value_type",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "\"observed\" or \"derived\" (our calculation).",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "name": "source_id",
     "type": "string",
     "description": "Source of the value.",
     "units": null,
     "nullable": false,
     "valueType": "observed"
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "analyses": [
  {
   "id": "gross-estimates-by-fy",
   "title": "Gross income-tax revenue by fiscal year, four official estimates",
   "question": "How much does each official estimate expect the tax to collect in each fiscal year?",
   "operation": "Select estimates_by_fy rows; convert millions to billions.",
   "scope": "All rows of estimates-by-fy.",
   "resultShape": "timeSeries",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2029,
     "grossBillions": 2.698,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2030,
     "grossBillions": 3.732,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2031,
     "grossBillions": 3.167,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2032,
     "grossBillions": 3.297,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2033,
     "grossBillions": 3.439,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2034,
     "grossBillions": 3.591,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2035,
     "grossBillions": 3.753,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (June 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2029,
     "grossBillions": 2.698,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (June 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2030,
     "grossBillions": 3.732,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (June 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2031,
     "grossBillions": 3.167,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "OFM fiscal impact statement for I-645 (Jul 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2029,
     "grossBillions": 3.108,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "OFM fiscal impact statement for I-645 (Jul 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2030,
     "grossBillions": 4.432,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "OFM fiscal impact statement for I-645 (Jul 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2031,
     "grossBillions": 3.892,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (Sept 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2029,
     "grossBillions": 3.503,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (Sept 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2030,
     "grossBillions": 5.032,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (Sept 2026)",
     "fiscalYear": 2031,
     "grossBillions": 4.403,
     "valueType": "derived"
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "First-year (FY2029) estimates range from $2.698 billion (fiscal note, ERFC June) to $3.503 billion (ERFC September); FY2030 from $3.732 billion to $5.032 billion.",
   "methodologicalNotes": [
    "ERFC June and September FY2030-31 values are our split of ERFC's biennial totals (see estimates_by_fy.csv notes)."
   ],
   "limitations": [
    "Static projections; no collections yet.",
    "OFM FIS rows are revenue loss to the general fund plus Fair Start, which equals gross collections."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "window-totals",
   "title": "Totals by estimate and window of years",
   "question": "Which official estimate and window of years produce $11.4 billion, $12.9 billion and $13 billion?",
   "operation": "Sum gross_income_tax_musd over the fiscal years named in each window.",
   "scope": "estimates-by-fy.",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "window": "Fiscal note, FY2029-32 (four years of collections)",
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "billions": 12.894
    },
    {
     "window": "Fiscal note, FY2029-35 (ten-year table)",
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "billions": 23.677
    },
    {
     "window": "Fiscal note, FY2029-31 (three years of collections)",
     "estimate": "ESSB 6346 fiscal note (Mar 2026)",
     "billions": 9.597
    },
    {
     "window": "ERFC June, FY2029-31 (2027-29 + 2029-31 biennia)",
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (June 2026)",
     "billions": 9.597
    },
    {
     "window": "OFM I-645 fiscal impact, FY2027-31 (collections FY29-31)",
     "estimate": "OFM fiscal impact statement for I-645 (Jul 2026)",
     "billions": 11.432
    },
    {
     "window": "ERFC Sept, FY2029-31 (2027-29 + 2029-31 biennia)",
     "estimate": "ERFC forecast (Sept 2026)",
     "billions": 12.938
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Fiscal note FY2029-32 (four years of collections): $12.894 billion. OFM FY2027-31: $11.432 billion. ERFC September FY2029-31 (three years of collections): $12.938 billion.",
   "limitations": [
    "Windows differ in the number of collection years; compare like with like."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "outlook-without-tax",
   "title": "2027-29 outlook ending balance with and without the income tax",
   "question": "What happens to the enacted budget outlook's 2027-29 balance if the income tax is removed?",
   "operation": "Ending balance minus the amount the outlook counts from ESSB 6346 (net), and minus the gross income tax (relief kept, as under I-645).",
   "scope": "outlook-2027-29.",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "item": "NGF-O projected ending balance, 2027-29 (enacted 2026 supplemental outlook)",
     "billions": 0.653,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "item": "ESSB 6346 counted in the outlook, 2027-29 (net, after revenue-side relief)",
     "billions": 2.309,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "item": "Gross income-tax revenue assumed for 2027-29 (FY29)",
     "billions": 2.698,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "item": "Ending balance without the tax, if its relief were also removed (653 - 2,309.18)",
     "billions": -1.656,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "item": "Ending balance without the tax, relief kept as under I-645 (653 - 2,698)",
     "billions": -2.045,
     "valueType": "derived"
    },
    {
     "item": "Free school meals in FY2029 projected expenditures (not mandatory)",
     "billions": 0.14,
     "valueType": "observed"
    },
    {
     "item": "City and county fiscal health in FY2029 projected expenditures (not mandatory)",
     "billions": 0.2,
     "valueType": "observed"
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "The outlook's +$0.653 billion 2027-29 balance becomes about -$2.0 billion if the gross income tax is removed and its relief stays (our calculation), or -$1.7 billion if the relief also goes.",
   "limitations": [
    "The outlook is a projection made before the September forecast and before the 2027 Legislature writes the 2027-29 budget.",
    "Ignores interactions such as lower DOR administrative costs (OFM: about $36 million in FY2029)."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "jayapal-300b-ratio",
   "title": "$300 billion compared with official estimates",
   "question": "How does a $300 billion figure compare with each official estimate?",
   "operation": "300 divided by each window total in window-totals.",
   "scope": "window-totals results.",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "comparedWith": "Fiscal note, FY2029-32 (four years of collections)",
     "billions": 12.894,
     "ratio": 23.3
    },
    {
     "comparedWith": "Fiscal note, FY2029-35 (ten-year table)",
     "billions": 23.677,
     "ratio": 12.7
    },
    {
     "comparedWith": "ERFC June, FY2029-31 (2027-29 + 2029-31 biennia)",
     "billions": 9.597,
     "ratio": 31.3
    },
    {
     "comparedWith": "OFM I-645 fiscal impact, FY2027-31 (collections FY29-31)",
     "billions": 11.432,
     "ratio": 26.2
    },
    {
     "comparedWith": "ERFC Sept, FY2029-31 (2027-29 + 2029-31 biennia)",
     "billions": 12.938,
     "ratio": 23.2
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "$300 billion is 12.7 times the fiscal note's ten-year total and 23 to 31 times the three- and four-year estimates.",
   "limitations": [
    "No source has said what window or measure $300 billion refers to."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z"
  },
  {
   "id": "relief-share",
   "title": "Fiscal note: tax relief bundled with the income tax, FY2029-32",
   "question": "How much of the gross income tax does the bill's own revenue-side relief use up?",
   "operation": "From fiscal-note-net-vs-gross: relief = gross - net; share = net / gross.",
   "scope": "FY2029-2032.",
   "resultShape": "table",
   "structuredResult": [
    {
     "fiscalYear": 2029,
     "grossBillions": 2.698,
     "netBillions": 2.353,
     "reliefBillions": 0.345,
     "netShareOfGross": 0.872
    },
    {
     "fiscalYear": 2030,
     "grossBillions": 3.732,
     "netBillions": 2.902,
     "reliefBillions": 0.83,
     "netShareOfGross": 0.778
    },
    {
     "fiscalYear": 2031,
     "grossBillions": 3.167,
     "netBillions": 2.44,
     "reliefBillions": 0.727,
     "netShareOfGross": 0.771
    },
    {
     "fiscalYear": 2032,
     "grossBillions": 3.297,
     "netBillions": 2.547,
     "reliefBillions": 0.75,
     "netShareOfGross": 0.772
    }
   ],
   "displayResult": "Revenue-side relief is $0.35-0.83 billion a year, so net revenue is 77-87% of the gross tax. Under I-645 the relief stays, so the state loses the gross amount.",
   "limitations": [
    "Excludes the Working Families Tax Credit expansion, which is appropriated spending rather than a revenue reduction."
   ],
   "executedAt": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z"
  }
 ],
 "statements": [
  {
   "id": "no-pamphlet-13b",
   "speaker": "Committee against I-645 (Janie White, WEA; April Sims, WSLC; et al.)",
   "speakerRole": "Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument against I-645",
   "date": "2026-09-17",
   "venue": "2026 General Election Voters' Pamphlet, Argument against",
   "quote": "This measure cuts funding for K-12 public schools, healthcare, childcare, and other important public services by $13 billion over four years.",
   "context": "Under the heading \"Vote No: Stop Cuts to Schools, Healthcare, and Childcare.\" The next sentence says that means larger class sizes, higher costs for healthcare and childcare, \"and the elimination of free school lunches for many children.\" The statement names no source or years for the $13 billion.",
   "claimType": "prediction",
   "sourceId": "voters-pamphlet-i645"
  },
  {
   "id": "no-pamphlet-hole",
   "speaker": "Committee against I-645 (Janie White, WEA; April Sims, WSLC; et al.)",
   "speakerRole": "Authors of the official voters' pamphlet rebuttal of the argument for I-645",
   "date": "2026-09-17",
   "venue": "2026 General Election Voters' Pamphlet, Rebuttal of argument for",
   "quote": "I-645 blows a $13 billion hole in the budget - don't believe lies that we can keep tax cuts for working families and small businesses but eliminate the tax on the wealthy few that pays for them.",
   "context": "Closing lines of the No committee's rebuttal, after it says any expansion of the tax would be decided on the ballot.",
   "claimType": "prediction",
   "sourceId": "voters-pamphlet-i645"
  },
  {
   "id": "yes-pamphlet-scare-tactic",
   "speaker": "Committee for I-645 (Sen. Chris Gildon, R-Puyallup, et al.)",
   "speakerRole": "Authors of the official voters' pamphlet rebuttal of the argument against I-645",
   "date": "2026-09-17",
   "venue": "2026 General Election Voters' Pamphlet, Rebuttal of argument against",
   "quote": "This was never about schools or diapers, that's a scare tactic. Washington has record revenues.",
   "context": "The Yes rebuttal opens \"The No campaign's claims are false. I-645 repeals the income tax,\" and argues that without I-645 the Legislature can expand the tax without a public vote.",
   "claimType": "assertion",
   "sourceId": "voters-pamphlet-i645"
  },
  {
   "id": "no645-site-13b",
   "speaker": "No on 645 campaign",
   "speakerRole": "Committee opposing I-645",
   "date": "2026-10-21",
   "venue": "Campaign website no645.com (read October 21, 2026)",
   "quote": "Initiative 645 will cut $13 billion in funding…",
   "context": "A heading on the home page, followed by bullets: larger class sizes, increased health care costs, more child care cuts and elimination of free school meals. The page gives no source or years for the figure.",
   "claimType": "prediction",
   "sourceId": "no645-home"
  },
  {
   "id": "jayapal-300b",
   "speaker": "Pramila Jayapal",
   "speakerRole": "U.S. Representative for Washington's 7th District",
   "date": "2026-09-26",
   "venue": "Post on X from @PramilaJayapal",
   "quote": "Working families already pay 3 times more than the top 1% in Washington. Now, millionaires and billionaires are trying to pass I-645, a ballot initiative that would give them a $300 billion tax break by cutting social programs in K-12 schools. Make it make sense.",
   "context": "Posted at 7:15 a.m. PDT on Sept. 26, 2026, with a link to the No on 645 YouTube ad \"Some Things Work Better Upside Down,\" whose description calls I-645 \"a 13 billion dollar tax break.\" As of Oct. 21, 2026 the post was still up, unedited, with no correction found from her account; her office gave no source for $300 billion in coverage we found.",
   "claimType": "assertion",
   "sourceId": "jayapal-x-post"
  },
  {
   "id": "heywood-k12",
   "speaker": "Brian Heywood",
   "speakerRole": "Founder of Let's Go Washington, sponsor of I-645",
   "date": "2026-07-19",
   "venue": "The Jason Rantz Show, Seattle Red 770 AM (as quoted by Seattle Red)",
   "quote": "They like to throw in K through 12, but our initiative doesn't do anything with K through 12 funding. So if they write K through 12, it is a lie, and we'll challenge it.",
   "context": "Heywood was discussing the ballot's public investment impact disclosure before the Attorney General had written it, predicting it would mention K-12. The Attorney General's July 23 disclosure did name K-12; a judge upheld it and Let's Go Washington's own challenge was never heard.",
   "claimType": "assertion",
   "sourceId": "seattle-red-heywood-2026-07-19"
  },
  {
   "id": "watt-kuow",
   "speaker": "Rian Watt",
   "speakerRole": "Economic Opportunity Institute, speaking for the No side",
   "date": "2026-10-08",
   "venue": "KUOW Soundside interview",
   "quote": "This initiative is an attempt by some of the richest people in our state, people making, by definition, over $83,000 a month, to cut $13 billion from K-12 education, from health care, and from higher education",
   "context": "Watt's opening case for a No vote, followed by Jaime Herrera Beutler's case for Yes in the same segment.",
   "claimType": "assertion",
   "sourceId": "kuow-2026-10-08"
  },
  {
   "id": "herrera-beutler-kuow",
   "speaker": "Jaime Herrera Beutler",
   "speakerRole": "Spokesperson for the Yes on I-645 campaign",
   "date": "2026-10-08",
   "venue": "KUOW Soundside interview",
   "quote": "Voting yes on Initiative 645 will not cut K-12 education funding, and it will not cut health care funding. This tax isn't even set to be collected until 2029.",
   "context": "Response to Rian Watt in the same segment. She added that lawmakers declined to earmark the money for health care and education.",
   "claimType": "assertion",
   "sourceId": "kuow-2026-10-08"
  }
 ]
}