# Official source audit ## Finding There are two different answers to whether a January 2018-December 2025 monthly dataset already exists. 1. **Yes:** The FBI Crime Data Explorer publishes a complete monthly Washington motor-vehicle-theft offense series through a public summarized-data endpoint. This is the source used for research release 0.1. 2. **No:** No complete public Washington agency-by-month WASPC/WSP table was located. Washington's public downloads are annual, and the separate WACIC stolen-vehicle material is fragmented across reports and partial tables. These sources use different labels, counting units, submission processes, and revision schedules. They must not be silently merged. ## Source inventory ### FBI Crime Data Explorer **URL** ```text https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/summarized/state/WA/motor-vehicle-theft?from=01-2018&to=12-2025 ``` **What it provides** - Monthly Washington reported motor-vehicle-theft offenses. - Monthly Washington clearances. - FBI-published rates. - State population. - Estimated population coverage. - Corresponding United States values. - Source maximum-data and last-refresh dates. **Suitability** This is the best immediately available source for a consistent statewide monthly offense series and national comparison. **Limitations** - It is a statewide aggregate rather than an agency-level extract. - It counts reported offenses, not necessarily unique stolen vehicles. - Historical values can be revised. - The endpoint does not explain discrepancies with WACIC's stolen-vehicle totals. - 2025 population coverage declines in the second half of the year. ### Washington Statistical Analysis Center NIBRS workbook **URLs** - https://sac.ofm.wa.gov/national-incident-based-reporting-systemnibrs - https://sac.ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/nibrs_12_24.xlsx - https://sac.ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/nibrs_dictionary.pdf **What it provides** - Annual data from 2012 through 2024. - One row per agency and year, with county and population. - Broad person, property, and society offense categories. **Suitability** Useful for agency-year context and selected annual validation, but not for this monthly motor-vehicle-theft series. **Blocking limitation** The workbook's `THEFT` field combines embezzlement, fraud, larceny, motor-vehicle theft, and stolen-property offenses. Motor-vehicle theft cannot be separated from that public workbook. The source also explicitly warns that NIBRS and the older SRS series cannot be compared directly. ### WASPC Crime in Washington reports **URLs** - https://www.waspc.org/cjis-statistics---reports - https://www.waspc.org/crime-in-wa-archive-folder **What they provide** - Official annual Crime in Washington publications. - Motor-vehicle theft as a distinct offense category. - Agency reporting context and lists of nonreporting agencies. - Annual statewide and agency-level tables. **Suitability** These reports should be used to validate annual sums and document reporting gaps. **Limitation** The reports are compiled from monthly submissions but do not publish a reusable statewide month-by-month motor-vehicle-theft table. The 2024 report illustrates why definitions matter: it separately reports motor-vehicle-theft offenses and vehicles stolen. Those concepts should not be treated as the same measure. ### WASPC/WSP WACIC vehicle-theft material **URLs** - https://www.waspc.org/assets/GTWO/ED_Updates/Vehicle%20Theft%20media%20release%20FINAL%20April%2013%202022.pdf - https://waspc.memberclicks.net/assets/Legal_Updates/2021%20WACIC%20Thefts%20by%20County.pdf - https://waspc.memberclicks.net/assets/Legal_Updates/WACIC%20Thefts%20by%20County%202022.pdf **What it provides** - A public chart spanning January 2019 through March 2022. - Exact county-by-month values for 2021. - Exact county-by-month values for January through March 2022. - Annual WACIC values cited in state reports. **Suitability** This is valuable for triangulation and may better match the plain-language concept of unique vehicles entered as stolen. **Limitations** - The complete eight-year monthly table is not publicly posted. - The 2021 PDF warns that raw monthly WACIC figures may not match separately posted year-to-date figures. - The series does not reconcile to the FBI CDE reported-offense series. - Public material does not fully document deduplication, late reporting, jurisdiction transfers, or historical revisions. ### WASPC custom data request **URL** https://www.waspc.org/cjis-statistics---reports WASPC directs users to submit a data request when they need a file format or statistical extract different from the published reports. This is the verified path to request the missing agency-month data. ### WATPA annual reports **URLs** - https://waautotheftpreventionauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2020-WATPA-AR.pdf - https://waautotheftpreventionauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2023-WATPA-AR-Final.pdf - https://waautotheftpreventionauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/WA-AUTO-THEFT-PREVENTION-AUTHORITY-5.pdf - https://waautotheftpreventionauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/WATPA-Annual-Report-Final-2026.pdf **What they provide** - Annual WACIC/WSP totals and trend descriptions. - Public explanations offered by the authority. - Context about task forces, technology, enforcement, and the Kia/Hyundai theft wave. **Suitability** Use for annual triangulation and documenting competing explanations, not as a complete monthly source. **Editorial caution** Statements attributing increases or decreases to pursuit-law changes are claims by the authority, not causal findings established by the annual totals. ### OFM/University of Washington pursuit study **URL** https://ofm.wa.gov/news-publications/vehicular-pursuits-in-washington-state/ **What it provides** - Pursuit records covering 2019-2024 from 118 local agencies plus Washington State Patrol. - Pursuit reasons, outcomes, crashes, injuries, termination reasons, and data-completeness analysis. - Documentation of heterogeneous agency recordkeeping. **Suitability** This is the strongest available source for assessing the safety and enforcement side of the policy tradeoff. **Limitations** - It is not a census of every Washington agency. - Only closed cases were supplied. - Tribal agencies did not participate. - Some multiagency pursuits may be duplicated. - It excludes "fled" incidents when officers did not initiate a pursuit. - Agencies did not collect all requested fields consistently. - Records cover 2019-2024, not the full theft period. ## Recommended source hierarchy For the article: 1. Use the FBI CDE monthly series for the principal reproducible statewide trend and national benchmark. 2. Use WASPC Crime in Washington reports for annual validation and reporting caveats. 3. Use WACIC values as a separate stolen-vehicle series, never as silent replacements for CDE offenses. 4. Request the unpublished WACIC agency-month extract. 5. Use the OFM/UW study for pursuit volume, safety outcomes, and data limitations. 6. Treat WATPA, police, legislators, advocates, and news accounts as claim and context sources rather than arbiters of causation. ## What FactHub contributes FactHub's contribution is no longer simply "creating a monthly statewide series that does not exist." The FBI already supplies that series. The stronger contribution is: - Discovering and documenting the usable FBI endpoint. - Preserving an immutable snapshot. - Publishing coverage and clearances alongside the offense counts. - Reconciling, rather than hiding, conflicting official series. - Obtaining the unpublished Washington agency-month extract. - Adding exact legal intervention dates. - Publishing a reproducible model and sensitivity analyses. - Showing which conclusions remain stable under alternate definitions and sources.