Will you pay more into WA Cares than the $36,500 benefit? The break-even wage

Five-second answer

Claim we investigated

Many Washington workers will pay more into WA Cares than its maximum lifetime benefit is worth.

True. Over 40 years, workers averaging above $157,000 out-pay the $36,500 maximum; counting interest, the line falls near $83,000. The statute's uncapped 0.58% premium and $36,500 cap, run through the state actuary's own wage, inflation and return assumptions and set against federal wage data, put roughly the top tenth of full-career earners above the break-even in plain dollars and over a third of them in present value.

Quote or cite this fact-check

FactHub rates the claim “Many Washington workers will pay more into WA Cares than its maximum lifetime benefit is worth” True (moderate confidence): Over 40 years, workers averaging above $157,000 out-pay the $36,500 maximum; counting interest, the line falls near $83,000. Reviewed October 19, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-cares-premiums-vs-max-benefit/1

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

The premium is 0.58% of all wages with no cap; the lifetime benefit is capped at $36,500 (365 days of $100), indexed to inflation since a 2025 law.
Over a 40-year career, inflation-adjusted premiums exceed $36,500 for anyone averaging more than about $157,000 a year, roughly the top tenth of Washington wages.
Counting what premiums could earn at the fund's own 4% assumed return, premiums exceed the value of a benefit used at 85 for anyone averaging more than about $83,000, about Washington's mean wage.
Lower earners come out well ahead if they need care: a median earner pays about $14,600 over 40 years for the same $36,500 maximum.
Today's older workers mostly come out ahead because they will pay for fewer years; near-retirees born before 1968 pay for 10% of the benefit at a time.
Roughly half of people who reach 65 never receive paid long-term care, so many workers will pay something and get nothing back, as with any insurance.
The program as a whole is priced to break even, so the high earners who pay more than they can receive are subsidizing lower earners and people who need care. That is the design, not an accident.

Important context: WA Cares is Washington's mandatory long-term care insurance program: workers pay 0.58% of every dollar of wages, and people who vest can use up to $36,500 (indexed to inflation) on care once they need help with at least three daily activities. This check compares one worker's premiums with the most the program can pay out; it is not a test of whether the program is solvent or worthwhile overall, and the benefit is insurance, so many people will use less than the maximum and some none of it.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 6 methods across 8 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.

Evidence map
Method	Institution / country	Year(s)	What it shows	Key limitation	Primary links
Reading of the current statute	Washington State Legislature United States	2019, 2022, 2024, 2025	RCW 50B.04.080 sets the premium at 0.58% of wages, and RCW 50B.04.010 says all wages are subject to it, with no cap like Social Security's. The benefit is 365 benefit units of up to $100, or $36,500 as of July 2026, and units can be combined to spend the money faster. Since the 2025 amendments the benefit unit rises each January with the Seattle-area consumer price index. To vest, a worker needs ten years of premiums, or three of the last six, with 500 hours worked in each year.	The statute sets today's rules; the Legislature has changed WA Cares in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025 and can change the premium, benefit or vesting rules again. From 2026 the Pension Funding Council may lower the premium.	Washington State Legislature Washington State Legislature Washington State Legislature Washington State Legislature Washington Office of the State Actuary
FactHub calculation using the state actuary's assumptions	FactHub, Milliman, Washington Office of the State Actuary United States	2024, 2025, 2026	A worker paying 0.58% for 40 years pays 23.2% of one year's wage in total. In inflation-adjusted dollars that reaches $36,500 at a career-average wage of about $157,300. Money paid at 25 and received at 85 is not worth the same, so the same comparison was made in present value, using the fund's own assumed long-run return of 4.0% and its assumed 2.4% indexing of the benefit. A full benefit used at 85 is then worth about $14,400 in today's money, and premiums exceed that at a career-average wage of about $82,600. The actuary also assumes wages grow 3.55% a year, faster than the 2.4% benefit indexing, so over time premiums grow relative to the benefit. A pure nominal sum, adding 2026 premium dollars to 2066 ones and comparing them with a 2086 benefit, would favor the benefit and is not used.	This is a projection for a hypothetical worker who pays for 40 years at a steady wage under today's rate; premiums began only in July 2023, so no one has done it yet. The present value depends on the discount rate and on when the benefit is used: at 3% the break-even is about $123,900, at 5% about $54,700, and using the benefit at 75 rather than 85 raises it to about $96,500. A wage that rises over the career changes it little ($84,600).	Milliman (for the Washington Office of the State Actuary) Washington Office of the State Actuary FactHub
Comparison with the federal wage survey for Washington	U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactHub United States	2025	In May 2025, Washington's 3.55 million jobs had a median wage of $62,990, a mean of $83,330, a 75th percentile of $101,710 and a 90th percentile of $153,630. The plain-dollar break-even of about $157,000 sits just above the 90th percentile: roughly one job in ten, or about 350,000. The present-value break-even of about $83,000 sits at the mean, which in a skewed distribution is above the median, so roughly a third or more of full-career workers would pay more than the benefit is worth when used at 85. Either way, the number is in the hundreds of thousands.	The wage survey is a snapshot of one year that mixes young and older workers; career averages are less spread out, so these shares are approximate. It counts jobs rather than people, and it leaves out overtime and nonproduction bonuses, which WA Cares taxes, so it understates some workers' taxable pay.	FactHub U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statute and program materials compared with lifetime-risk research	Washington State Legislature, WA Cares Fund, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services United States	2019, 2024, 2025	Because everyone pays the same rate and gets the same maximum, the deal is best at low wages. Over 40 years a worker at the 10th percentile ($38,670) pays about $9,000 and a median earner about $14,600, a quarter to two-fifths of the $36,500 maximum. The program director's own example, a $56,000 earner paying $8,700 over 30 years, matches this math. Workers who start paying mid-career pay for fewer years: someone who starts at 45 breaks even only above about $315,000 a year. People born before 1968 earn 10% of the benefit, $3,650, for each year they pay, so only those earning over about $629,000 pay more than they earn back. The losers are full-career high earners and anyone who never needs paid care; a federal study found that only 48% of people who reach 65 receive any paid long-term care.	Whether any one person comes out ahead depends on whether they vest, stay in or keep paying from out of state, need care that meets the three-activity threshold, and live to use it. The federal lifetime-risk estimates are national, not Washington-specific, and use a looser definition of need than WA Cares.	FactHub Washington State Legislature WA Cares Fund (Washington State) Peninsula Daily News (Paula Hunt) U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE (Richard W. Johnson, Urban Institute)
Review of the state's actuarial valuation	Milliman, Washington Office of the State Actuary United States	2024, 2025	In the base case the actuary projects that the 0.58% premium will pay all expected benefits and expenses for 75 years with a margin of 3.5%, and it estimates the premium needed for solvency at 0.48% to 0.65% of wages. Across its investment and opt-in scenarios the balance ranges from a 14.5% shortfall to a 30.2% surplus. A fund priced so that premiums roughly equal benefits must, by arithmetic, pay some people more than they put in and others less. The actuary expects many beneficiaries to use the whole benefit. Because premiums rise with pay and benefits do not, the people who put in more than they can take out are mostly higher earners.	The actuarial balance is highly sensitive to assumptions; the actuary says no single result is a most-likely outcome. It is a projection, made before any benefits were paid.	Washington Office of the State Actuary Milliman (for the Washington Office of the State Actuary)
Official records of exemptions, elections and legislation	Washington State Employment Security Department, Washington Secretary of State, Washington State Legislature United States	2021, 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026	Before premiums began, 480,366 workers used a one-time window (October 2021 to December 2022) to exempt themselves by attesting to private long-term care insurance bought before November 1, 2021. The 2022 Legislature delayed premiums to July 1, 2023, added partial benefits for people born before 1968, and from 2023 let some groups opt out, including veterans with a 70% or greater disability, military spouses, nonresident workers and temporary-visa holders. In November 2024 voters rejected Initiative 2124, which would have made the program optional, by 55.46% to 44.54%. In 2024 and 2025 the Legislature let people with three years of premiums keep coverage after moving away if they keep paying on all their wages (benefits outside Washington start in 2030), and let exempt workers rejoin before July 2028. In November 2025 voters approved investing the fund in stocks, 57.82% to 42.18%.	Exemption counts are applications approved by the end of 2022; ESD does not report how many exempt workers have since rescinded. Election results show what voters chose, not why.	Washington State Employment Security Department Washington State Legislature Washington State Legislature Washington Secretary of State Washington State Legislature Washington State Legislature Washington Secretary of State Washington State Standard

1. The law sets an uncapped 0.58% premium and a $36,500 lifetime cap

RCW 50B.04.080 sets the premium at 0.58% of wages, and RCW 50B.04.010 says all wages are subject to it, with no cap like Social Security's. The benefit is 365 benefit units of up to $100, or $36,500 as of July 2026, and units can be combined to spend the money faster. Since the 2025 amendments the benefit unit rises each January with the Seattle-area consumer price index. To vest, a worker needs ten years of premiums, or three of the last six, with 500 hours worked in each year.

Limit: The statute sets today's rules; the Legislature has changed WA Cares in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025 and can change the premium, benefit or vesting rules again. From 2026 the Pension Funding Council may lower the premium.

Verify: RCW 50B.04.080: Premium assessment, rate, collection RCW 50B.04.010: Definitions RCW 50B.04.060: Eligible beneficiaries, determination, services and benefits RCW 50B.04.050: Qualified individuals Actuarial Valuation of the WA Cares Fund: Letter of Introduction and Recommendations (June 2025)

The premium is 0.58% of wages, collected from July 1, 2023; from 2026 the Pension Funding Council may set it lower but not higher. Washington State Legislature
Every dollar of wages is subject to the premium; there is no cap. Washington State Legislature
A benefit unit is up to $100 of approved services on a given day, adjusted each year for inflation. Washington State Legislature
A beneficiary can receive at most 365 benefit units over a lifetime, which is $36,500 at $100 a unit. Washington State Legislature
Units can be combined, so the $36,500 can be spent quickly; there is no daily limit. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
Full benefits require ten years of premiums, or three of the last six years, with at least 500 hours worked in each year. Washington State Legislature
A 2025 law fixed annual increases in the benefit unit to inflation. Washington Office of the State Actuary

2. Over a full career, premiums pass the cap at about $157,000 in plain dollars and about $83,000 in present value

A worker paying 0.58% for 40 years pays 23.2% of one year's wage in total. In inflation-adjusted dollars that reaches $36,500 at a career-average wage of about $157,300. Money paid at 25 and received at 85 is not worth the same, so the same comparison was made in present value, using the fund's own assumed long-run return of 4.0% and its assumed 2.4% indexing of the benefit. A full benefit used at 85 is then worth about $14,400 in today's money, and premiums exceed that at a career-average wage of about $82,600. The actuary also assumes wages grow 3.55% a year, faster than the 2.4% benefit indexing, so over time premiums grow relative to the benefit. A pure nominal sum, adding 2026 premium dollars to 2066 ones and comparing them with a 2086 benefit, would favor the benefit and is not used.

Limit: This is a projection for a hypothetical worker who pays for 40 years at a steady wage under today's rate; premiums began only in July 2023, so no one has done it yet. The present value depends on the discount rate and on when the benefit is used: at 3% the break-even is about $123,900, at 5% about $54,700, and using the benefit at 75 rather than 85 raises it to about $96,500. A wage that rises over the career changes it little ($84,600).

Verify: WA Cares Fund Actuarial Valuation as of June 30, 2024 Actuarial Valuation of the WA Cares Fund: Letter of Introduction and Recommendations (June 2025) WA Cares premiums over a career compared with the maximum lifetime benefit (dataset version 1)

The actuary assumes wages grow 3.55% a year and the benefit is indexed 2.4% a year in the long run, so premiums grow faster than the benefit. Milliman (for the Washington Office of the State Actuary)
The fund is assumed to earn 4.4% a year at first, grading to 4.0%; this report uses 4.0% to compare money paid and received at different times. Washington Office of the State Actuary
Over 40 years, premiums pass $36,500 at a career-average wage of about $157,300; in present value at 4%, at about $82,600. FactHub

Lifetime premiums rise with pay; the benefit does not. Over 40 years, premiums pass the $36,500 maximum at about $157,000 a year, and pass its present value (if used at 85) at about $83,000. Projection using the state actuary's assumptions. View source chart

3. Roughly the top tenth of earners in plain dollars, and over a third in present value

In May 2025, Washington's 3.55 million jobs had a median wage of $62,990, a mean of $83,330, a 75th percentile of $101,710 and a 90th percentile of $153,630. The plain-dollar break-even of about $157,000 sits just above the 90th percentile: roughly one job in ten, or about 350,000. The present-value break-even of about $83,000 sits at the mean, which in a skewed distribution is above the median, so roughly a third or more of full-career workers would pay more than the benefit is worth when used at 85. Either way, the number is in the hundreds of thousands.

Limit: The wage survey is a snapshot of one year that mixes young and older workers; career averages are less spread out, so these shares are approximate. It counts jobs rather than people, and it leaves out overtime and nonproduction bonuses, which WA Cares taxes, so it understates some workers' taxable pay.

Verify: WA Cares premiums over a career compared with the maximum lifetime benefit (dataset version 1) Technical Notes for May 2025 OEWS Estimates

Washington's 90th-percentile wage is $153,630 and its mean $83,330 (BLS OEWS, May 2025), so the simple break-even is near the top tenth and the present-value break-even near the mean. FactHub
The wage survey leaves out overtime and nonproduction bonuses, which WA Cares does charge premiums on, so it understates some workers' taxable wages. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4. Lower earners, older workers and people who need care come out ahead

Because everyone pays the same rate and gets the same maximum, the deal is best at low wages. Over 40 years a worker at the 10th percentile ($38,670) pays about $9,000 and a median earner about $14,600, a quarter to two-fifths of the $36,500 maximum. The program director's own example, a $56,000 earner paying $8,700 over 30 years, matches this math. Workers who start paying mid-career pay for fewer years: someone who starts at 45 breaks even only above about $315,000 a year. People born before 1968 earn 10% of the benefit, $3,650, for each year they pay, so only those earning over about $629,000 pay more than they earn back. The losers are full-career high earners and anyone who never needs paid care; a federal study found that only 48% of people who reach 65 receive any paid long-term care.

Limit: Whether any one person comes out ahead depends on whether they vest, stay in or keep paying from out of state, need care that meets the three-activity threshold, and live to use it. The federal lifetime-risk estimates are national, not Washington-specific, and use a looser definition of need than WA Cares.

Verify: WA Cares premiums over a career compared with the maximum lifetime benefit (dataset version 1) RCW 50B.04.050: Qualified individuals How the Fund Works WA Cares can provide long-term insurance benefits, director says What Is the Lifetime Risk of Needing and Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports?

At the 10th percentile ($38,670) and median ($62,990), 40 years of premiums total $8,971 and $14,614, a quarter to two-fifths of the maximum benefit. FactHub · Qualifies
Workers who start paying at 45 break even only above $314,700 (simple) or $195,300 (present value); near-retirees above $629,300 a year. FactHub · Qualifies
People born before 1968 earn one-tenth of the maximum benefit for each year of premiums, so they pay for one year at a time. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
Near-retirees earn $3,650 of benefit for each year they contribute. WA Cares Fund (Washington State) · Qualifies
The program describes the premium as the same rate for everyone, regardless of salary. WA Cares Fund (Washington State)
His example: a $56,000 earner pays $290 a year, $8,700 over 30 years, which matches this article's math for a median earner. Peninsula Daily News (Paula Hunt) · Qualifies
About half of people who reach 65 receive some paid long-term care; most develop severe needs at some point. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE (Richard W. Johnson, Urban Institute) · Qualifies

5. The program is priced to break even overall, so above-average payers subsidize others

In the base case the actuary projects that the 0.58% premium will pay all expected benefits and expenses for 75 years with a margin of 3.5%, and it estimates the premium needed for solvency at 0.48% to 0.65% of wages. Across its investment and opt-in scenarios the balance ranges from a 14.5% shortfall to a 30.2% surplus. A fund priced so that premiums roughly equal benefits must, by arithmetic, pay some people more than they put in and others less. The actuary expects many beneficiaries to use the whole benefit. Because premiums rise with pay and benefits do not, the people who put in more than they can take out are mostly higher earners.

Limit: The actuarial balance is highly sensitive to assumptions; the actuary says no single result is a most-likely outcome. It is a projection, made before any benefits were paid.

Verify: Actuarial Valuation of the WA Cares Fund: Letter of Introduction and Recommendations (June 2025) WA Cares Fund Actuarial Valuation as of June 30, 2024

In the base case the fund can pay all expected benefits for 75 years with a 3.5% margin at the 0.58% rate. Washington Office of the State Actuary · Qualifies
Across the actuary's investment and adverse-selection scenarios, the balance ranges from a 14.5% shortfall to a 30.2% surplus. Washington Office of the State Actuary · Qualifies
The premium needed to keep the fund solvent for 75 years is 0.48% to 0.65% of wages, 0.57% in the base case. Milliman (for the Washington Office of the State Actuary) · Qualifies
The actuary expects many beneficiaries to use the whole lifetime benefit. Milliman (for the Washington Office of the State Actuary) · Qualifies

6. Exemptions, a failed opt-out initiative and later changes

Before premiums began, 480,366 workers used a one-time window (October 2021 to December 2022) to exempt themselves by attesting to private long-term care insurance bought before November 1, 2021. The 2022 Legislature delayed premiums to July 1, 2023, added partial benefits for people born before 1968, and from 2023 let some groups opt out, including veterans with a 70% or greater disability, military spouses, nonresident workers and temporary-visa holders. In November 2024 voters rejected Initiative 2124, which would have made the program optional, by 55.46% to 44.54%. In 2024 and 2025 the Legislature let people with three years of premiums keep coverage after moving away if they keep paying on all their wages (benefits outside Washington start in 2030), and let exempt workers rejoin before July 2028. In November 2025 voters approved investing the fund in stocks, 57.82% to 42.18%.

Limit: Exemption counts are applications approved by the end of 2022; ESD does not report how many exempt workers have since rescinded. Election results show what voters chose, not why.

Verify: WA Cares Fund (ESD exemption and premium overview) RCW 50B.04.085: Premium assessment exemptions Final Bill Report, SHB 1732 (2022) November 5, 2024 General Election Results: Initiative Measure No. 2124 RCW 50B.04.180: Out-of-state participants RCW 50B.04.050: Qualified individuals November 4, 2025 General Election Results: Senate Joint Resolution No. 8201 What’s next with investing WA’s long-term care fund in stocks

ESD approved 480,366 private-insurance exemptions by the end of 2022. Washington State Employment Security Department
Workers who bought private long-term care insurance before November 1, 2021 could apply to be exempt. Washington State Legislature
Exempt workers can rejoin before July 1, 2028. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
The 2022 Legislature delayed premium collection 18 months, to July 1, 2023. Washington State Legislature
Voters rejected I-2124, which would have made WA Cares optional, 55.46% to 44.54%. Washington Secretary of State
From July 2026, someone with three years of premiums who moves away may stay covered, if they elect it and keep paying. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
Out-of-state participants pay premiums on wages earned anywhere. Washington State Legislature
Benefits for qualified people living outside Washington start only in July 2030. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
Voters approved investing WA Cares money in stocks, 57.82% to 42.18%. Washington Secretary of State · Qualifies
Voters allowed WA Cares premiums to be invested in the stock market. Washington State Standard · Qualifies

Common questions

“WA Cares is insurance. Comparing premiums with the payout misses the point, like complaining that you paid more for fire insurance than your house burned.”

That is the strongest defense, and it is right that insurance is meant to pay some people more than they put in and others less. Pooling is how a $36,500 benefit can cost a median earner about $14,600. But this claim is narrower: it says the most a worker can ever get is worth less than what many will pay. That is a fact about the cap and the uncapped premium, not about insurance in general. A homeowner can buy less fire coverage; a high earner cannot buy less WA Cares, and since the 2021-22 exemption window closed cannot opt out by buying private coverage.

About half of people who reach 65 receive some paid long-term care; most develop severe needs at some point. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE (Richard W. Johnson, Urban Institute) · Qualifies
The program describes the premium as the same rate for everyone, regardless of salary. WA Cares Fund (Washington State)

“The program's director says workers will pay far less into WA Cares than they get out of it.”

For a median earner who needs care and uses the full benefit, that is accurate in plain dollars: his example of $8,700 over 30 years at $56,000 checks out. It is not true for full-career workers averaging more than about $157,000, and in present value it fails for full-career workers above about $83,000. It also assumes the worker uses the whole benefit, which about half of people never do.

The program's director says workers will pay far less than they get out of the program. Peninsula Daily News (Paula Hunt) · Contradicts
His example: a $56,000 earner pays $290 a year, $8,700 over 30 years, which matches this article's math for a median earner. Peninsula Daily News (Paula Hunt) · Qualifies

“People who move out of state lose everything they paid in.”

That was true when critics said it in 2024 but is now outdated. Since July 2026, someone with three years of premiums who moves away can stay covered, if they elect within a year and keep paying 0.58% on all their wages, wherever earned. Benefits outside Washington do not start until July 2030. Anyone who does not elect, or who paid fewer than three years, still gets nothing back.

Critics argued that younger workers could pay far more than they get and that people who move away lose their benefits. KPQ (Dave Bernstein)
From July 2026, someone with three years of premiums who moves away may stay covered, if they elect it and keep paying. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
Out-of-state participants pay premiums on wages earned anywhere. Washington State Legislature
Benefits for qualified people living outside Washington start only in July 2030. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies

“WA Cares takes money from low-income workers to pay for higher-income ones.”

On the numbers, the main transfer runs the other way. Everyone gets the same maximum benefit, but premiums rise with pay with no cap, so a worker earning $40,000 pays about a quarter of what a $160,000 earner pays for the same coverage. Low earners who never need care do pay in without getting anything back, as with any insurance, and the premium is a real cost to them. Critics are right that the benefit is small next to the cost of long-term care.

WPC argues WA Cares takes money from low-income workers for higher-income ones; by the numbers, the redistribution mostly runs the other way. Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New) · Contradicts
WPC notes the $36,500 benefit is often not enough to cover care. Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New) · Qualifies

“You must pay for ten years without a break of five or more years to qualify.”

That was the law when Washington Policy Center wrote it in October 2024. The 2025 amendments removed the break condition: the statute now requires ten years in total, or three of the last six, with 500 hours in each year.

WPC described a ten-year rule with no five-year break; that was the law in 2024, but the 2025 amendments dropped the break condition. Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New) · Qualifies
Full benefits require ten years of premiums, or three of the last six years, with at least 500 hours worked in each year. Washington State Legislature

“WA Cares is going broke.”

The state actuary's base case is positive, with a 3.5% margin over 75 years at the 0.58% rate, and it recommends keeping that rate. Its scenarios range from a 14.5% shortfall to a 30.2% surplus, so solvency is uncertain but not projected to fail in the base case.

In the base case the fund can pay all expected benefits for 75 years with a 3.5% margin at the 0.58% rate. Washington Office of the State Actuary · Qualifies
Across the actuary's investment and adverse-selection scenarios, the balance ranges from a 14.5% shortfall to a 30.2% surplus. Washington Office of the State Actuary · Qualifies

“Now that the fund can invest in stocks, the premium may fall and the math will change.”

Possibly. The actuary says stock investing would likely lower the premium needed, and the Pension Funding Council may set a rate below 0.58%. A lower rate would raise every break-even wage in proportion: at 0.48%, for example, the plain-dollar break-even would be about $190,000. The actuary recommends no change until at least 2028.

The actuary recommends keeping 0.58% for now but says stock investing would likely lower the premium needed. Washington Office of the State Actuary · Qualifies
Voters approved investing WA Cares money in stocks, 57.82% to 42.18%. Washington Secretary of State · Qualifies
The premium is 0.58% of wages, collected from July 1, 2023; from 2026 the Pension Funding Council may set it lower but not higher. Washington State Legislature

Conclusion

The claim holds. WA Cares charges 0.58% of every dollar of wages and pays out at most $36,500 in today's dollars, so any worker who pays long enough at a high enough wage will pay more than the program can ever return. Using the state actuary's own assumptions, the line for a 40-year career is a career-average wage of about $157,000 in plain inflation-adjusted dollars, roughly the top tenth of Washington wages, or about 350,000 jobs. Counting what the money could have earned at the fund's own 4% assumed return, and assuming the benefit is used at 85, the line falls to about $83,000, Washington's mean wage, which takes in a third or more of full-career workers. Either way the number is in the hundreds of thousands, which is many. The finding is not that most workers lose. A median earner who pays for 40 years puts in about $14,600 for a $36,500 maximum, and today's older workers, who will pay for far fewer years, nearly all pay less than the maximum; near-retirees pay for their benefit a year at a time. Those who come out ahead are lower earners, workers who start late, and above all people who need care. Those who come out behind are young full-career high earners and the roughly half of people who never receive paid care. That redistribution is by design: the actuary prices the fund so that total premiums roughly cover total benefits, so above-average payers must subsidize the rest, as in Social Security. Both sides overreach. The program's director says workers will pay far less than they get, which is true for a median earner who uses the full benefit but not for many others. Critics said people who move away lose everything and that vesting requires no five-year break; both were true in 2024 and were changed by later laws. Confidence is moderate, not high, because this is a projection: it depends on a 40-year career, the discount rate, when the benefit is used, and a premium that could be lowered now that the fund may invest in stocks. None of those changes reverse the finding for high earners with long careers.

How we checked

Defined the claim as: over a working career, many Washington workers will pay more in WA Cares premiums than the program's maximum lifetime benefit of $36,500, indexed. "Many" means hundreds of thousands of workers.
Took the premium rate, wage base, benefit cap, indexing and vesting rules from the current statute (RCW 50B.04), and the legislative history from bill reports.
Took wage growth (3.55%), benefit indexing (2.4%) and the fund's assumed return (4.0%) from the 2024 Milliman actuarial valuation and the state actuary's 2025 summary, so the comparison uses the program's own assumptions.
Computed lifetime premiums for a 40-year career at each career-average wage, in inflation-adjusted dollars and in present value, and the break-even wage under alternative career lengths, discount rates and ages at use.
Placed the break-even wages in Washington's May 2025 wage distribution from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey, retrieved through the BLS data API.
Recorded the strongest argument from each side, from the program director and from critics, and checked each against current law.
Recorded limitations for each line of evidence.

Editorial note: Scope: This article compares one worker's lifetime WA Cares premiums with the program's maximum lifetime benefit, in plain inflation-adjusted dollars and in present value, using the state actuary's assumptions. It does not judge whether WA Cares is good policy, whether the benefit is adequate, or whether the fund will stay solvent, beyond reporting the actuary's projections. The rated claim adds the word "maximum" to the circulating wording, because the benefit actually received varies and "worth" is otherwise undefined; the comparison with the maximum is the one most favorable to the program. "Many" is taken to mean hundreds of thousands of workers. External review: No external specialist review (actuary, public-finance economist) has been recorded. To verify yourself: (1) read RCW 50B.04.010, .050, .060 and .080 for the rate, cap and vesting rules; (2) check the 3.55%, 2.4% and 4.0% assumptions in the Milliman valuation and OSA letter; (3) rerun the cited dataset's build.js or multiply: 0.0058 x 40 x wage = 36,500 gives $157,328; (4) compare with BLS wage data for Washington. Challenge this fact-check: Identify the specific conclusion you dispute and provide verifiable evidence that could change it. Credible challenges deserve review and a visible response through FactHub's challenge submission process.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by FactHub. Research was compiled with an AI assistant (Claude, Anthropic) and checked against the cited sources.

Conflicts: None known. FactHub has no affiliation with the WA Cares Fund, Washington Policy Center, Let's Go Washington or any campaign on WA Cares or I-2124.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50B.04.080: Premium assessment, rate, collection
The statute that sets the WA Cares premium.

Reliability: Current codified law, including the 2025 amendments (2025 c 380). The Legislature created and maintains the program.
- The premium is 0.58% of wages, collected from July 1, 2023; from 2026 the Pension Funding Council may set it lower but not higher.
  
  What the source says
  
  The initial premium rate is .58 percent of the individual's wages.
  RCW 50B.04.080(1)
Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50B.04.010: Definitions
Definitions for the WA Cares statute, including the benefit unit and wages.

Reliability: Current codified law, including the 2025 amendments that fixed annual indexing of the benefit unit.
- Every dollar of wages is subject to the premium; there is no cap.
  
  What the source says
  
  All wages are subject to a premium assessment and not limited by the commissioner of the employment security department
  RCW 50B.04.010(16)
- A benefit unit is up to $100 of approved services on a given day, adjusted each year for inflation.
  
  What the source says
  
  means up to $100 paid by the department of social and health services to a long-term services and supports provider as reimbursement for approved services provided to an eligible beneficiary on a specific date. The benefit unit must be adjusted annually for inflation by the consumer price index.
  RCW 50B.04.010(3)
Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50B.04.060: Eligible beneficiaries, determination, services and benefits
The statute that caps lifetime benefits.

Reliability: Current codified law.
- A beneficiary can receive at most 365 benefit units over a lifetime, which is $36,500 at $100 a unit.
  
  What the source says
  
  an eligible beneficiary may not receive more than the dollar equivalent of 365 benefit units over the course of the eligible beneficiary's lifetime.
  RCW 50B.04.060(3)(b)
- Qualifies: Units can be combined, so the $36,500 can be spent quickly; there is no daily limit.
  
  What the source says
  
  Eligible beneficiaries may combine benefit units to receive more approved services per day as long as the total number of lifetime benefit units has not been exceeded.
  RCW 50B.04.060(3)(b)(ii)
Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50B.04.050: Qualified individuals
The statute that sets vesting rules, including partial benefits for people born before 1968.

Reliability: Current codified law; the 2025 amendments removed the earlier requirement that the ten years be without a break of five or more years.
- Full benefits require ten years of premiums, or three of the last six years, with at least 500 hours worked in each year.
  
  What the source says
  
  A total of ten years; or…Three years within the last six years from the date of application for benefits.
  RCW 50B.04.050(1)
- Qualifies: People born before 1968 earn one-tenth of the maximum benefit for each year of premiums, so they pay for one year at a time.
  
  What the source says
  
  may receive one-tenth of the maximum number of benefit units available under RCW…for each year of premium payments.
  RCW 50B.04.050(2)
- Qualifies: Benefits for qualified people living outside Washington start only in July 2030.
  
  What the source says
  
  benefits for out-of-state participants who become eligible beneficiaries will not be available until July 1, 2030
  RCW 50B.04.050(2)
Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50B.04.180: Out-of-state participants
The 2024 portability law, amended in 2025, that lets people who move away stay in the program.

Reliability: Current codified law (2024 c 120, 2025 c 380).
- Qualifies: From July 2026, someone with three years of premiums who moves away may stay covered, if they elect it and keep paying.
  
  What the source says
  
  who relocates outside of Washington may elect to continue participation in the program if
  RCW 50B.04.180(1)
- Out-of-state participants pay premiums on wages earned anywhere.
  
  What the source says
  
  "wages" includes remuneration for services performed within or without or both within and without this state.
  RCW 50B.04.180(6)
Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50B.04.085: Premium assessment exemptions
The 2021 private-insurance exemption and the 2025 option to rescind it.

Reliability: Current codified law.
- Workers who bought private long-term care insurance before November 1, 2021 could apply to be exempt.
  
  What the source says
  
  An employee who attests that the employee has long-term care insurance purchased before November 1, 2021, may apply for an exemption
  RCW 50B.04.085(1)
- Qualifies: Exempt workers can rejoin before July 1, 2028.
  
  What the source says
  
  Prior to July 1, 2028, an employee who has received an approved exemption pursuant to this section may rescind the exemption and participate in the program.
  RCW 50B.04.085(9)(b)
Government Washington State Employment Security Department. WA Cares Fund (ESD exemption and premium overview)
ESD fact sheet on its WA Cares role, with exemption application counts.

Reliability: ESD collects premiums and processed the exemption applications it reports.
- ESD approved 480,366 private-insurance exemptions by the end of 2022.
  
  What the source says
  
  ESD approved 480,366 exemptions.
  Exemption application data
Government Washington State Legislature. Final Bill Report, SHB 1732 (2022)
Nonpartisan staff summary of the 2022 law that delayed the program and added partial benefits for near-retirees.

Reliability: Prepared by nonpartisan legislative staff; not a statement of legislative intent.
- The 2022 Legislature delayed premium collection 18 months, to July 1, 2023.
  
  What the source says
  
  The date for beginning the collection of premium assessments under the Trust Program for both employees and self-employed persons is delayed by 18 months from January 1, 2022, until July 1, 2023.
  Summary, p. 2
Government Milliman (for the Washington Office of the State Actuary). WA Cares Fund Actuarial Valuation as of June 30, 2024
The program's first actuarial valuation after premiums began, dated December 10, 2024.

Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Commissioned by the Office of the State Actuary, which reports on keeping the fund solvent. Milliman is a private actuarial firm under contract; the report publishes its assumptions and sensitivity tests.
- The actuary assumes wages grow 3.55% a year and the benefit is indexed 2.4% a year in the long run, so premiums grow faster than the benefit.
  
  What the source says
  
  wage growth (assumed to be 3.55% on an ultimate basis) outpaces the benefit indexing (assumed to be 2.4% on an ultimate basis)
  Section III, p. 10
- Qualifies: The premium needed to keep the fund solvent for 75 years is 0.48% to 0.65% of wages, 0.57% in the base case.
  
  What the source says
  
  Under the Baseline, we estimate a required premium assessment of 0.48% to 0.65% (0.57% for the Base Scenario).
  Section III, Required premium assessment, p. 10
- Qualifies: The actuary expects many beneficiaries to use the whole lifetime benefit.
  
  What the source says
  
  we project many beneficiaries will utilize and exhaust their full lifetime benefit
  Section IV, Utilization / cost of care, p. 13
Government Washington Office of the State Actuary. Actuarial Valuation of the WA Cares Fund: Letter of Introduction and Recommendations (June 2025)
The state actuary's summary of the 2024 valuation and its recommendations to the Pension Funding Council.

Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. The office is charged by statute with recommending actions to keep the fund solvent. It also commissioned a second-opinion model from another actuarial firm.
- The fund is assumed to earn 4.4% a year at first, grading to 4.0%; this report uses 4.0% to compare money paid and received at different times.
  
  What the source says
  
  For this measurement, the NIER is 4.4% each year for the first 15 years of the projection grading down to an ultimate rate of 4.0% at year 30 of the projection.
  Executive Summary, Investment Risk, p. 5
- Qualifies: In the base case the fund can pay all expected benefits for 75 years with a 3.5% margin at the 0.58% rate.
  
  What the source says
  
  the program is projected to have an actuarial balance of 3.5% under the base scenario.
  Executive Summary, p. 3
- Qualifies: Across the actuary's investment and adverse-selection scenarios, the balance ranges from a 14.5% shortfall to a 30.2% surplus.
  
  What the source says
  
  the range for the projected actuarial balance widens to (14.5%) to 30.2% when you consider the adverse selection and investment risk modeled in this analysis.
  Executive Summary, Adverse Selection Risk, p. 6
- A 2025 law fixed annual increases in the benefit unit to inflation.
  
  What the source says
  
  The bill also fixed the annual increase to the benefit unit equal to applicable inflation.
  Letter of Introduction, p. 1
- Qualifies: The actuary recommends keeping 0.58% for now but says stock investing would likely lower the premium needed.
  
  What the source says
  
  A new investment policy would likely decrease the required premium rate estimated to fund future benefits and expenses.
  Recommendations, p. 9
Government Washington Secretary of State. November 5, 2024 General Election Results: Initiative Measure No. 2124
Certified statewide results for the initiative to make WA Cares optional.

Reliability: Official certified election results.
- Voters rejected I-2124, which would have made WA Cares optional, 55.46% to 44.54%.
  
  What the source says
  
  Initiative Measure No. 2124…55.46%
  Results table
Government Washington Secretary of State. November 4, 2025 General Election Results: Senate Joint Resolution No. 8201
Certified statewide results for the constitutional amendment allowing WA Cares funds to be invested in stocks.

Reliability: Official certified election results.
- Qualifies: Voters approved investing WA Cares money in stocks, 57.82% to 42.18%.
  
  What the source says
  
  Senate Joint Resolution No. 8201…57.82%
  Results table
Government U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE (Richard W. Johnson, Urban Institute). What Is the Lifetime Risk of Needing and Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports?
A 2019 federal research brief estimating lifetime long-term care risk for Americans who reach 65, from Health and Retirement Study data.

Reliability: Written by an Urban Institute researcher for HHS's planning office using national survey data; it does not address WA Cares.
- Qualifies: About half of people who reach 65 receive some paid long-term care; most develop severe needs at some point.
  
  What the source says
  
  Seventy percent of adults who survive to age 65 develop severe LTSS needs before they die and 48 percent receive some paid LTSS over their lifetime.
  Summary
Government U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Technical Notes for May 2025 OEWS Estimates
Definitions for the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey used for Washington's wage distribution.

Reliability: Federal statistical agency documentation of its own survey.
- The wage survey leaves out overtime and nonproduction bonuses, which WA Cares does charge premiums on, so it understates some workers' taxable wages.
  
  What the source says
  
  Excluded are overtime pay, severance pay, shift differentials, nonproduction bonuses,
  Wages
Party to the dispute WA Cares Fund (Washington State). How the Fund Works
The program's own explanation of contributions and benefits.

Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Run by the state agencies that administer and promote the program.
- The program describes the premium as the same rate for everyone, regardless of salary.
  
  What the source says
  
  Everyone contributes at the same low rate regardless of salary.
  How it works
- Qualifies: Near-retirees earn $3,650 of benefit for each year they contribute.
  
  What the source says
  
  10% of the full benefit amount for each year you contribute (currently $3,650 per year)
  Transition pathway
News report Peninsula Daily News (Paula Hunt). WA Cares can provide long-term insurance benefits, director says
December 11, 2024 news report on a presentation by the WA Cares Fund director.

Reliability: Local newspaper report paraphrasing and quoting the program director; it does not test his figures.
- Contradicts: The program's director says workers will pay far less than they get out of the program.
  
  What the source says
  
  Veghte said workers will pay far less into the program than what they will get out of it.
  Paragraph on costs · Ben Veghte, director of the WA Cares Fund (as reported)
- Qualifies: His example: a $56,000 earner pays $290 a year, $8,700 over 30 years, which matches this article's math for a median earner.
  
  What the source says
  
  For example, someone with an annual salary of $56,000 would pay $290 a year, a total of $8,700 over 30 years.
  Paragraph on costs · Ben Veghte, director of the WA Cares Fund (as reported)
News report KPQ (Dave Bernstein). Washington Agencies Bracing for WA Cares Defections if I-2124 Passes
May 8, 2024 radio-station news report summarizing critics' objections before the I-2124 vote.

Reliability: Summarizes critics' arguments without naming them; based on a Center Square report of a trust commission meeting.
- Critics argued that younger workers could pay far more than they get and that people who move away lose their benefits.
  
  What the source says
  
  People moving out of state lose the benefits they paid into and younger workers could pay far more into the program than benefits received.
  Paragraph 3
Advocacy group Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New). WA Cares harms low-income workers today for a maybe benefit tomorrow
October 15, 2024 commentary by a free-market think tank that supported I-2124.

Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Washington Policy Center opposes WA Cares and backed the initiative to make it optional.
- Contradicts: WPC argues WA Cares takes money from low-income workers for higher-income ones; by the numbers, the redistribution mostly runs the other way.
  
  What the source says
  
  WA Cares also takes money from low-income workers for workers with higher incomes.
  Body
- Qualifies: WPC described a ten-year rule with no five-year break; that was the law in 2024, but the 2025 amendments dropped the break condition.
  
  What the source says
  
  To receive a benefit, a person not only has to need long-term care, he or she has to pay into WA Cares for 10 years without a break of five or more years.
  Body
- Qualifies: WPC notes the $36,500 benefit is often not enough to cover care.
  
  What the source says
  
  The lifetime benefit of $36,500 also is not typically enough to cover a person’s long-term-care costs, should they have them.
  Body
News report Washington State Standard. What’s next with investing WA’s long-term care fund in stocks
November 17, 2025 news report on the approved amendment and next steps.

Reliability: Nonprofit state news outlet; reports the measure's supporters' arguments.
- Qualifies: Voters allowed WA Cares premiums to be invested in the stock market.
  
  What the source says
  
  Voters decided this month to allow payroll taxes collected for Washington’s new long-term care program to be invested in the stock market.
  Paragraph 1
FactHub record FactHub. WA Cares premiums over a career compared with the maximum lifetime benefit (dataset version 1)
The model, tables, break-even scenarios and Washington wage distribution behind every calculated figure here, with the script that reproduces them.
- Over 40 years, premiums pass $36,500 at a career-average wage of about $157,300; in present value at 4%, at about $82,600.
- Washington's 90th-percentile wage is $153,630 and its mean $83,330 (BLS OEWS, May 2025), so the simple break-even is near the top tenth and the present-value break-even near the mean.
- Qualifies: At the 10th percentile ($38,670) and median ($62,990), 40 years of premiums total $8,971 and $14,614, a quarter to two-fifths of the maximum benefit.
- Qualifies: Workers who start paying at 45 break even only above $314,700 (simple) or $195,300 (present value); near-retirees above $629,300 a year.
FactHub dataset WA Cares premiums over a career compared with the maximum lifetime benefit
- Tables: career-premiums-by-wage
  
  Saved analysis premiums-vs-benefit-by-wage
- Tables: break-even-scenarios
  
  Saved analysis break-even-wages
- Tables: wa-wage-distribution-outcomes
  
  Saved analysis wage-distribution-outcomes
FactHub chart wa-cares-premiums-vs-benefit-by-wage

Update history

October 19, 2026 Initial version.

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Technical details: node handle article:wa-cares-premiums-vs-max-benefit

Many Washington workers will pay more into WA Cares than its maximum benefit.

Five-second answer

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

The evidence

Common questions

“WA Cares is insurance. Comparing premiums with the payout misses the point, like complaining that you paid more for fire insurance than your house burned.”

“The program's director says workers will pay far less into WA Cares than they get out of it.”

“People who move out of state lose everything they paid in.”

“WA Cares takes money from low-income workers to pay for higher-income ones.”

“You must pay for ten years without a break of five or more years to qualify.”

“WA Cares is going broke.”

“Now that the fund can invest in stocks, the premium may fall and the math will change.”

Conclusion

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Five-second answer

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

The evidence

Common questions

“WA Cares is insurance. Comparing premiums with the payout misses the point, like complaining that you paid more for fire insurance than your house burned.”

“The program's director says workers will pay far less into WA Cares than they get out of it.”

“People who move out of state lose everything they paid in.”

“WA Cares takes money from low-income workers to pay for higher-income ones.”

“You must pay for ten years without a break of five or more years to qualify.”

“WA Cares is going broke.”

“Now that the fund can invest in stocks, the premium may fall and the math will change.”

Conclusion

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