Five-second answer

Claim we investigated

A doctor will simply check a box on a physical form that already exists to confirm a child’s sex.

Mostly true. A girl's regular doctor could confirm her sex by checkbox, but no current form has one. The measure's text, the WIAA's rules and forms, and the Yes campaign's own spokespeople show the verification can be a provider's sign-off on the existing clearance form once a box is added, while national survey data show about a quarter of Washington children have no personal doctor who could sign it from what they already know.

Quote or cite this fact-check

FactHub rates the claim “A doctor will simply check a box on a physical form that already exists to confirm a child’s sex” Mostly true (moderate confidence): A girl's regular doctor could confirm her sex by checkbox, but no current form has one. Reviewed October 23, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-i638-yes-campaign-claims/2

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. The measure requires a statement signed by the student's personal health care provider verifying her sex, relying only on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or normal testosterone. It names no procedure, so a signed checkbox could satisfy it.
  • Established. No current sports-physical form has a box for a provider to confirm sex: WIAA Rule 18.4.1's list of what the exam must document leaves sex out, and the clearance form sent to schools has no sex field. Yes campaign voices describe the box as one to be added.
  • Established. In 2023-24, 25.3% of Washington children had no personal doctor or nurse; for those girls, no provider already knows the anatomy a box would confirm.
  • Established. The FAQ's next sentence, that a doctor may use the medical history form or 'any other method', goes beyond the text, which limits the basis to three things (Misleading).
  • Established. Three Yes pamphlet lines hold up: medical clearance is already required (True); male athletic advantage is well established (True); the measure bars no one from all sports, only from the other sex's competition (Mostly true).
  • Established. The '110,000 girls ... increasingly required to compete against biological males' line is unsourced; the Yes side's own data show three to seven male-born athletes a year in girls' events, with entries falling after 2024 (Misleading).
  • Established. The pediatricians' chapter director's email, as the campaign published it, also says the genital exam is often deferred after girls begin menstruating and that sex verification has no medical indication; the campaign's release left both out (Misleading).
  • Established. Calling the 5-10 estimate of transgender athletes a 'gross underestimation' is contradicted by the only counts available, including the table behind the Yes side's own 269 figure (Misleading).
  • Not shown. The campaign's 56% poll can't be checked: no pollster, dates, wording or margin of error, and the 56% is a party-weighted projection in a state without party registration (Unproven).
Important context: Initiative IL26-638 is on Washington's November 3, 2026 ballot. Section 3(2) requires a student entering female-only school competition to give, as part of the sports physical, a statement signed by her personal health care provider verifying her biological sex, relying only on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or normal testosterone levels. Let's Go Washington, which sponsors the measure, answers the No campaign's genital-exam warning in its FAQ with the sentence rated here. This is FactHub's check of the Yes side's own claims: that FAQ sentence, three lines of the Yes pamphlet argument, and five statements from the campaign's website and releases. FactHub takes no position on I-638.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 8 methods across 16 institutions and 3 countries or international groupings.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
Reading of the filed initiative text and the Attorney General's explanatory statement in the voters' pamphlet Washington Secretary of State, Washington Office of the Attorney General United States 2025, 2026 Section 3(2) requires a student entering female-only competition to provide, as part of the sports physical, 'a health examination and consent form or other statement signed by the student's personal health care provider that verifies the student's biological sex', relying only on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or normal endogenous testosterone. It names bases, not a procedure or a form. The Attorney General's explanatory statement concludes that students 'would thus have to undergo some type of medical evaluation of their sex'. No implementing rule exists. The text neither requires nor forbids a checkbox, and how the WIAA, school districts and providers would carry it out is not settled. The Attorney General's statement is a neutral summary, not a ruling. Washington Secretary of State Washington Secretary of State KUOW Public Radio
Review of WIAA Rule 18.4 in the 2026-27 handbook, the three sports-physical forms the WIAA posts, and reporting on the 2019 form change Washington Interscholastic Activities Association, American Academy of Pediatrics, KUOW Public Radio United States 2019, 2026 WIAA Rule 18.4.0 requires a thorough medical examination and approval by a licensed provider before a student's first practice. Rule 18.4.1 lists what the exam results must document: medical history, the cardiopulmonary exam, an orthopedic screen and a statement of fitness. Sex is not on the list. The Medical Eligibility Form, the only form the WIAA says goes to the school, has no sex field. The history form, which stays with the doctor, asks the family for 'Sex assigned at birth'. KUOW reports the state dropped a sex checkbox from clearance forms sent to schools in 2019. School districts may use their own forms; we checked the WIAA's rules and recommended forms, not every district's. The family-completed history form does record sex assigned at birth, as the family's report. Washington Interscholastic Activities Association Washington Interscholastic Activities Association Washington Interscholastic Activities Association American Academy of Pediatrics KUOW Public Radio
Reading of Let's Go Washington's I-638 FAQ and myth-versus-fact page as of October 23, 2026, its spokesperson's statement to The Seattle Times, and a Yes pamphlet co-author's essay Let's Go Washington, The Seattle Times, Jess Grant (Substack) United States 2026 The FAQ says a doctor 'will simply check a box on a physical form that already exists to confirm a child's sex', and that the doctor can use 'existing medical history knowledge, the existing medical history form, or any other method the doctor and patient deem is best'. The campaign's myth-versus-fact page says the same. Its communications director told The Seattle Times the plan is 'adding a checkbox back onto a form that doctors already fill out', and a Yes pamphlet co-author wrote that the measure requires 'the athlete's doctor to check a new box (M or F) on the same form we've used for years'. Campaign statements describe how the Yes side expects the measure to work; they do not bind the WIAA, school districts or providers. Let's Go Washington Let's Go Washington The Seattle Times Jess Grant (Substack)
Review of the AAP's Bright Futures guidelines and the Washington AAP chapter director's email as published by Let's Go Washington and reported by The Advocate American Academy of Pediatrics, Washington Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics United States 2017, 2026 Bright Futures lists, for girls at the 11-14 year visits, 'Perform visual inspection for sexual maturity rating', and the same at 15-17, so a regular doctor who follows the guidelines has observed a girl's external anatomy. The Washington chapter's director wrote that genital exams are standard at well checks for all boys and pre-pubertal girls, that after girls begin menstruating the exam 'is often deferred if there are no concern/complaints', and that there is 'no indication for sex verification' for sports clearance. Guidelines are recommendations, not a record of practice, and the chapter director's email is one physician's account published by a campaign. No Washington data measure how often teenage girls get the inspection. American Academy of Pediatrics The Advocate (reprinting Them) Let's Go Washington (screenshot of Washington Chapter AAP email)
National Survey of Children's Health estimates for Washington, 2023-2024 combined U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration (NSCH), Data Resource Center for Child and Adolescent Health United States 2023, 2024 In 2023-24, 25.3% of Washington children had no personal doctor or nurse who knows them well. For a girl in that group, the provider signing the verification would not already know her anatomy, so 'simply' checking a box would not be possible without a new examination or test. Parent-reported survey with sampling error (95% interval 22.2% to 28.8%); covers boys and girls aged 0-17. A child without a personal doctor may still have records from clinics. Data Resource Center for Child and Adolescent Health (NSCH)
National Federation of State High School Associations participation surveys for Washington, FactHub's year-by-year count of the anonymized HeCheated.org table behind the Yes side's 269 figure, and the state superintendent's estimate National Federation of State High School Associations, FactHub, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction United States 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 NFHS reports 79,020 girls' high-school participations in Washington in 2024-25 and 101,194 in 2025-26, counting a girl in two sports twice. The Let's Go Washington page gives no source for 110,000. The advocacy table behind the Yes side's 269 placements lists ten male-born athletes in Washington girls' school events; by our count, its entries by calendar year were 16 in 2022, 82 in 2023, 86 in 2024, 34 in 2025 and 5 in 2026 through August, from three to seven athletes a year. The superintendent estimated in 2025 that five to 10 of nearly a quarter million participants identified as transgender. NFHS counts participations, not individual girls, and leaves out middle school; Washington's 2025-26 jump may partly reflect reporting changes. The HeCheated table is incomplete and its identification of athletes is its own, so its yearly counts are a floor. Let's Go Washington National Federation of State High School Associations National Federation of State High School Associations FactHub Fox News
Review of Let's Go Washington's October 6, 2026 poll release and chart, news reports on what the campaign told reporters, the Secretary of State's voter-registration guide, and the only other public poll Let's Go Washington, KOMO/KATU, KUOW Public Radio, Washington Secretary of State, The Seattle Times United States 2026 The release says 'I-638 received 56% support from respondents'. Its chart gives 73% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats and 52% of independents in favor, and labels the 56% 'Projected Vote Adjusted for Party Share', weighting Democrats 52%, Republicans 27% and independents 21% from a third-party website. The campaign told KATU it surveyed 7,500 likely voters using the ballot title; KUOW reports the results were collected in August 2026. No pollster, dates, wording or margin of error were released, and Washington voters do not register by party. A Ballot Initiative Strategy Center poll found 43% of 400 voters in favor. We could not obtain the questionnaire, field dates, mode or raw sample. The competing poll is also from an interested group and is thinly documented. Let's Go Washington Let's Go Washington (poll results chart) KOMO News (KATU) KUOW Public Radio Washington Secretary of State The Seattle Times
Peer-reviewed review of studies on sex differences in performance and on testosterone suppression in transgender women University of Manchester, Karolinska Institutet United Kingdom, Sweden 2021 The review finds the male-female performance gap 'becomes significant at puberty and often amounts to 10-50% depending on sport', and that 12 months of testosterone suppression reduces transgender women's muscle mass and strength only about 5%. The authors argue for restricting the female category, and the review concerns adults who went through male puberty; it says little about children before puberty, when the gap is small. Sports Medicine (Springer)
1. The measure requires a provider's signed verification and names bases, not a form or procedure Reading of the filed initiative text and the Attorney General's explanatory statement in the voters' pamphlet

Section 3(2) requires a student entering female-only competition to provide, as part of the sports physical, 'a health examination and consent form or other statement signed by the student's personal health care provider that verifies the student's biological sex', relying only on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or normal endogenous testosterone. It names bases, not a procedure or a form. The Attorney General's explanatory statement concludes that students 'would thus have to undergo some type of medical evaluation of their sex'.

Limit: No implementing rule exists. The text neither requires nor forbids a checkbox, and how the WIAA, school districts and providers would carry it out is not settled. The Attorney General's statement is a neutral summary, not a ruling.

Verify: Initiative Measure No. IL26-638, final filed text (filed June 2, 2025) 2026 General Election voters' pamphlet, Initiative Measure IL26-638 (statewide edition) Transgender ballot initiative could require genital exams for WA secondary school students (Sarah Mizes-Tan, June 4, 2026)

Related claim: Initiative 638 requires a doctor's sex verification, not a genital exam. — FactHub rates the No claim that I-638 will require genital examinations for female athletes False (high confidence): the text lets providers verify sex by genetic testing or testosterone levels instead; no genital exam is mandated. This links to the version that was current when this fact check was written. Read the latest version.

2. No current sports-physical form has a box for a provider to confirm sex Review of WIAA Rule 18.4 in the 2026-27 handbook, the three sports-physical forms the WIAA posts, and reporting on the 2019 form change

WIAA Rule 18.4.0 requires a thorough medical examination and approval by a licensed provider before a student's first practice. Rule 18.4.1 lists what the exam results must document: medical history, the cardiopulmonary exam, an orthopedic screen and a statement of fitness. Sex is not on the list. The Medical Eligibility Form, the only form the WIAA says goes to the school, has no sex field. The history form, which stays with the doctor, asks the family for 'Sex assigned at birth'. KUOW reports the state dropped a sex checkbox from clearance forms sent to schools in 2019.

Limit: School districts may use their own forms; we checked the WIAA's rules and recommended forms, not every district's. The family-completed history form does record sex assigned at birth, as the family's report.

Verify: WIAA Handbook 2026-27: Rule 18.4 (Physical Examination) and Rule 18.16 (Gender Identity Participation) Preparticipation Physical Evaluation: Medical Eligibility Form (2019 multi-society form, as posted by WIAA) WIAA Forms: Health and Wellness Forms (accessed October 23, 2026) Preparticipation Physical Evaluation: History Form (PPE 5th edition, revised) Transgender ballot initiative could require genital exams for WA secondary school students (Sarah Mizes-Tan, June 4, 2026)

3. Yes campaign voices describe a box to be added, and a wider choice of basis than the text allows Reading of Let's Go Washington's I-638 FAQ and myth-versus-fact page as of October 23, 2026, its spokesperson's statement to The Seattle Times, and a Yes pamphlet co-author's essay

The FAQ says a doctor 'will simply check a box on a physical form that already exists to confirm a child's sex', and that the doctor can use 'existing medical history knowledge, the existing medical history form, or any other method the doctor and patient deem is best'. The campaign's myth-versus-fact page says the same. Its communications director told The Seattle Times the plan is 'adding a checkbox back onto a form that doctors already fill out', and a Yes pamphlet co-author wrote that the measure requires 'the athlete's doctor to check a new box (M or F) on the same form we've used for years'.

Limit: Campaign statements describe how the Yes side expects the measure to work; they do not bind the WIAA, school districts or providers.

Verify: The Initiatives 2026: Yes on I-638 (FAQ and talking points, read October 23, 2026) The Truth About The Initiatives (read October 23, 2026) Ferguson urges voters to reject potential trans girl athletes ban (Ryan Nguyen, September 29, 2026) Dishonest Politics (October 22, 2026)

4. Checkups give a regular doctor a basis, though practice for teenage girls varies Review of the AAP's Bright Futures guidelines and the Washington AAP chapter director's email as published by Let's Go Washington and reported by The Advocate

Bright Futures lists, for girls at the 11-14 year visits, 'Perform visual inspection for sexual maturity rating', and the same at 15-17, so a regular doctor who follows the guidelines has observed a girl's external anatomy. The Washington chapter's director wrote that genital exams are standard at well checks for all boys and pre-pubertal girls, that after girls begin menstruating the exam 'is often deferred if there are no concern/complaints', and that there is 'no indication for sex verification' for sports clearance.

Limit: Guidelines are recommendations, not a record of practice, and the chapter director's email is one physician's account published by a campaign. No Washington data measure how often teenage girls get the inspection.

Verify: Bright Futures Guidelines for Health Supervision of Infants, Children, and Adolescents, 4th ed.: Adolescence Visits (11 through 21 years) Pediatrics association tells transphobes not to use its name to push for school sports genital exams (August 2026) Email from the executive director of the Washington Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics to Let's Go Washington, August 26, 2026, 10:48 AM (image published with the August 27 release)

5. One in four Washington children has no personal doctor or nurse National Survey of Children's Health estimates for Washington, 2023-2024 combined

In 2023-24, 25.3% of Washington children had no personal doctor or nurse who knows them well. For a girl in that group, the provider signing the verification would not already know her anatomy, so 'simply' checking a box would not be possible without a new examination or test.

Limit: Parent-reported survey with sampling error (95% interval 22.2% to 28.8%); covers boys and girls aged 0-17. A child without a personal doctor may still have records from clinics.

Verify: NSCH 2023-24: Medical Home Component: Personal doctor or nurse, Washington

6. About 80,000 to 100,000 high-school girls' participations; three to seven male-born athletes a year National Federation of State High School Associations participation surveys for Washington, FactHub's year-by-year count of the anonymized HeCheated.org table behind the Yes side's 269 figure, and the state superintendent's estimate

NFHS reports 79,020 girls' high-school participations in Washington in 2024-25 and 101,194 in 2025-26, counting a girl in two sports twice. The Let's Go Washington page gives no source for 110,000. The advocacy table behind the Yes side's 269 placements lists ten male-born athletes in Washington girls' school events; by our count, its entries by calendar year were 16 in 2022, 82 in 2023, 86 in 2024, 34 in 2025 and 5 in 2026 through August, from three to seven athletes a year. The superintendent estimated in 2025 that five to 10 of nearly a quarter million participants identified as transgender.

Limit: NFHS counts participations, not individual girls, and leaves out middle school; Washington's 2025-26 jump may partly reflect reporting changes. The HeCheated table is incomplete and its identification of athletes is its own, so its yearly counts are a floor.

Verify: The Initiatives 2026: Yes on I-638 (FAQ and talking points, read October 23, 2026) 2024-25 High School Athletics Participation Survey 2025-26 High School Athletics Participation Survey Washington girls' school events entered by male-born athletes, as tallied by HeCheated.org (anonymized) (dataset) State education chief says it's 'inaccurate' to say there are only two genders, in defense of trans athletes

7. The campaign's poll discloses party results and a weighted projection, little else Review of Let's Go Washington's October 6, 2026 poll release and chart, news reports on what the campaign told reporters, the Secretary of State's voter-registration guide, and the only other public poll

The release says 'I-638 received 56% support from respondents'. Its chart gives 73% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats and 52% of independents in favor, and labels the 56% 'Projected Vote Adjusted for Party Share', weighting Democrats 52%, Republicans 27% and independents 21% from a third-party website. The campaign told KATU it surveyed 7,500 likely voters using the ballot title; KUOW reports the results were collected in August 2026. No pollster, dates, wording or margin of error were released, and Washington voters do not register by party. A Ballot Initiative Strategy Center poll found 43% of 400 voters in favor.

Limit: We could not obtain the questionnaire, field dates, mode or raw sample. The competing poll is also from an interested group and is thinly documented.

Verify: New poll shows support for parent's right to know and fairness in girls' sports (press release, October 6, 2026) I-001 and I-638 survey results chart, published with the October 6, 2026 release New polling shows support for Washington transgender girls sports initiative (Vasili Varlamos, October 7, 2026) Polling shows ban on trans girls in girls' sports could pass in November (Sarah Mizes-Tan, October 5, 2026) Guide to Registering Voters in Washington State (2023) Ferguson urges voters to reject potential trans girl athletes ban (Ryan Nguyen, September 29, 2026)

8. Male performance advantage after puberty is well documented Peer-reviewed review of studies on sex differences in performance and on testosterone suppression in transgender women

The review finds the male-female performance gap 'becomes significant at puberty and often amounts to 10-50% depending on sport', and that 12 months of testosterone suppression reduces transgender women's muscle mass and strength only about 5%.

Limit: The authors argue for restricting the female category, and the review concerns adults who went through male puberty; it says little about children before puberty, when the gap is small.

Verify: Transgender Women in the Female Category of Sport: Perspectives on Testosterone Suppression and Performance Advantage (Hilton and Lundberg, 2021)

Common questions

“Medical clearance is already required to participate safely.”

Our rating: True

WIAA Rule 18.4.0 requires every student to have a thorough medical examination and be approved for competition by a licensed provider before the first practice, renewed every 24 months under Rule 18.4.7. It is an association rule that member schools must follow rather than a statute, but the sentence is accurate. It does not show that the clearance covers sex, which today it does not.

“The initiative doesn't ban anyone from sports. It simply requires participation consistent with one's sex.”

Our rating: Mostly true

The text bars 'biologically male students' only from competition intended for female students. Boys' and open teams are untouched, so no student is barred from school sports altogether, and the No pamphlet's 'kick 5 - 10 trans girls off school teams' overstates it. But the Attorney General's statement says the measure 'would generally prevent transgender girls from participating on girls' sports teams', which WIAA Rule 18.16.0 lets them join today. For those few students it ends play on the teams they are on now, and any girl who does not provide the provider's statement cannot enter girls' events. 'Requires participation consistent with one's sex' is a fair summary; 'doesn't ban anyone' understates the change for them.

Related claim: Washington's rules let transgender girls compete in girls' school sports. — FactHub rates 'Washington currently allows males to compete against girls' True: WIAA Rule 18.16.0 and OSPI rules let students compete by gender identity, including transgender girls in girls' events.

“Male athletic advantage is well established.”

Our rating: True

Performance gaps between males and females open at puberty and reach roughly 10-50% depending on the sport, according to a peer-reviewed review; FactHub's own check finds about 7-15% in running and swimming and 18-28% in jumping. The same review finds that a year of testosterone suppression removes only about 5% of muscle mass and strength. The limit worth knowing: before puberty the gap is small, and the measure covers all grades.

Related claim: After puberty, boys outrun, outjump and outswim girls by roughly 10-30%. — FactHub rates the claim that boys and men have a large competitive advantage over girls and women True: after puberty, males outperform females by about 7-15% in running and swimming, 18-28% in jumping, and more in strength.

“Every female athlete in Washington deserves a fair playing field, yet more than 110,000 girls are increasingly required to compete against biological males.”

Our rating: Misleading

The page gives no source; elsewhere it calls them '110,000 girls playing sports in Washington state middle and high schools'. That is a plausible order of magnitude: the national survey counts 79,020 girls' high-school participations in 2024-25 and 101,194 in 2025-26, counting a girl once per sport and leaving out middle school. It is not a count of girls. The rest of the sentence is the problem. Every girl competes under a rule that lets transgender girls enter girls' events (WIAA Rule 18.16.0), but few ever face one: the table behind the Yes side's own 269 figure lists three to seven male-born athletes in any one year, and its Washington entries went from 16 in 2022 to 82 in 2023 and 86 in 2024, then fell to 34 in 2025. The table is incomplete, but nothing published shows 110,000 girls, or a rising number, competing against male-born athletes.

“They can use existing medical history knowledge, the existing medical history form, or any other method the doctor and patient deem is best to check the box on the sports physical form.”

Our rating: Misleading

The text says the provider's statement must rely 'only on' reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or normal testosterone. A doctor's existing knowledge of a girl's anatomy fits, and the text does not say how the doctor must have learned it. But the medical history form records the family's report of 'sex assigned at birth', which is not one of the three bases, and 'any other method the doctor and patient deem is best' has no limit the text recognizes. The same FAQ says the measure does not 'authorize' genital exams; it requires none, but it does let a provider rely on anatomy.

Related claim: Under I-638, a birth certificate alone can't prove a girl's sex for sports. — FactHub rates the No claim that I-638 bans parents from using birth certificates Misleading: under I-638, a birth certificate alone can't prove a girl's sex for sports, but the text never mentions birth certificates.

“In the conversation, the ED confirmed that genital exams are standard for all boys and for girls before they hit puberty. The opposition has lied about this and attempted to twist reality.”

Our rating: Misleading

The paraphrase of the director's first sentence is accurate: her email, as the campaign published it, says genital exams 'are standard for annual well checks in all boys and in all pre-pubertal girls'. The release leaves out the rest of the same short email: that after girls begin menstruating the exam 'is often deferred if there are no concern/complaints', and that there is 'no indication for sex verification' for sports clearance. The omitted sentence is the one about girls past puberty, the group high-school girls' teams are drawn from. The email does not show the opposition lied: the No pamphlet's 'fully clothed' line is about sports physicals, not well checks. In the campaign's favor, the AAP's national guidelines do list a visual genital inspection for girls aged 11 to 17.

“I-638 received 56% support from respondents.”

Our rating: Unproven

Disclosed: results by party (73% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats, 52% of independents for), a 56% labeled 'Projected Vote Adjusted for Party Share' that weights Democrats 52%, Republicans 27% and independents 21% using a third-party website, a reported 7,500 likely voters shown the ballot title, and an August 2026 field period. Not disclosed: who ran it, exact dates, how respondents were reached, question wording, the raw sample by party and a margin of error. So the 56% is a projection, not the respondents' share the release describes, and its party weights can't be checked against voter rolls because Washington voters do not register by party. The published weights and party results do give 55.6%, so the arithmetic is consistent. The only other public poll, from the progressive Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, found 43% of 400 voters in favor, also with little detail. With two partisan polls pointing different ways, support is an open question.

“NHWS claiming that there are only 5-10 biological males in girls’ sports is not only a gross underestimation but is also factually unsubstantiated.”

Our rating: Misleading

Part of this is fair: no agency publishes a count, and the campaign says the WIAA told it that it does not track transgender participation. But the 5-10 figure is the state superintendent's 2025 estimate, not the No campaign's invention. And 'gross underestimation' is contradicted by the best evidence the Yes side has: the advocacy table its 269 figure comes from lists ten male-born athletes in Washington girls' school events across five seasons, three to seven in any one year. That table is incomplete, so the true number may be somewhat higher, but nothing published shows it is far higher.

Related claim: The Yes campaign's 269 girls'-event placements check out, from ten athletes. — FactHub rates the Yes count of 269 placements by male athletes in girls' events Mostly true: the figures check out, from ten athletes, mostly at regular-season meets.

“Existing law requires athletes to have a physical exam that includes a declaration of their biological sex.”

Short answer: Partly: the family's own report

A physical is required, by WIAA Rule 18.4.0 rather than by statute. The history form the WIAA recommends asks the family for 'Sex assigned at birth', and it stays with the doctor. But the rule's list of what the exam must document leaves out sex, and the form sent to the school has no sex field. The doctor's file usually holds a family-reported sex; no provider verifies it today.

“Doesn't the sports physical form already have a sex box?”

Short answer: Not since 2019

The state dropped the sex checkbox from clearance forms sent to schools in 2019, and the WIAA's current Medical Eligibility Form asks for the student's name and date of birth but has no sex field. The Yes campaign's spokesperson and a pamphlet co-author both describe the box as one that would be added back. So the form exists; the box does not yet.

“What about girls without a regular doctor?”

Short answer: Not simple for them

About a quarter of Washington children have no personal doctor or nurse. The measure still requires a statement from the student's personal health care provider, and a provider seeing a girl for the first time would have no prior knowledge of her anatomy to rely on. She could get an exam, a genetic test or a testosterone test; none is a simple checkbox. How the WIAA would handle these girls has not been worked out.

Related claim: Pediatric checkups already document sex, though many Washington girls lack a regular provider. — FactHub rates the Yes claim that standard pediatric care already verifies sex Mostly true: pediatric checkups already document sex, though many Washington girls lack a regular provider.

Conclusion

The FAQ sentence describes a plausible way the measure could work, and for most girls a fair one. The text requires 'a health examination and consent form or other statement signed by the student's personal health care provider' verifying the student's sex. It names three bases the provider may rely on, not a procedure, so a provider who already knows a girl's anatomy from her checkups could satisfy it by signing a box on the clearance form. The AAP's Bright Futures guidelines call for a visual genital inspection at well-child visits for girls through 17, so a regular doctor usually has that knowledge. Nothing in the text requires a genital exam, which is why FactHub rates the No side's 'will require genital exams' False in a separate check. Three things keep the sentence from being fully true. First, the box does not exist yet. No form the WIAA recommends has a place for a provider to confirm sex: Rule 18.4.1 lists what the physical must document, and sex is not on the list, and the Medical Eligibility Form that goes to the school has no sex field. The family-completed history form asks for 'sex assigned at birth', but that is the family's report and it stays with the doctor. The campaign's own spokespeople say as much: Let's Go Washington's communications director described 'adding a checkbox back onto a form', and a Yes pamphlet co-author wrote of 'a new box'. Read with 'will', the FAQ sentence is a prediction about a form change no one has made, and the WIAA says the requirement still has to be worked out with medical professionals. Second, 'simply' holds only for girls whose provider already has a basis. In 2023-24, 25.3% of Washington children had no personal doctor or nurse. For them, the provider who signs would have no prior knowledge of their anatomy, and verification would mean a new examination or a lab test; the Attorney General's explanatory statement says students 'would thus have to undergo some type of medical evaluation of their sex'. Third, the FAQ's next sentence says a doctor may use the medical history form 'or any other method the doctor and patient deem is best'. The text says the provider may rely 'only on' anatomy, genetics or testosterone; a family-reported sex on a history form is not one of them. We rate that sentence Misleading separately. On the Yes pamphlet's own lines, the campaign does well. Medical clearance is already required (WIAA Rule 18.4.0): True. 'Male athletic advantage is well established': True, on Olympic, high-school and physiological evidence, with the caveat that the gap is small before puberty. 'The initiative doesn't ban anyone from sports': Mostly true, since boys' and open teams remain open, though the Attorney General says the measure would generally prevent transgender girls from playing on girls' teams, where they may play today. The overstatements are on the campaign's website and in its releases. The '110,000 girls' line is unsourced and implies a large and growing exposure that the Yes side's own source contradicts: three to seven male-born athletes a year, with entries falling after 2024. The August 27 release quotes the Washington pediatricians' chapter director accurately on boys and pre-pubertal girls but leaves out, from the same email, that the exam is often deferred after girls begin menstruating and that sex verification has no medical indication; it then calls opponents liars on that basis. The attack on the 5-10 estimate as a 'gross underestimation' is contradicted by the only counts that exist. The 56% poll cannot be checked: no pollster, dates, wording or margin of error, and the 56% is a party-weighted projection rather than the respondents' share. Our ratings of those statements are in the objections below. Confidence in the lead rating is Moderate because the form and the guidance do not yet exist, and how providers would treat girls they do not know is not settled. The facts about the text, the current forms and the campaign's statements are well documented.

How we checked

  1. Defined the lead claim as the exact sentence in Let's Go Washington's I-638 FAQ, read on October 23, 2026, and split it into three parts: whether the measure allows a checkbox, whether the form already has one, and whether it is simple for every girl.
  2. Read Sections 1 and 3 of the filed initiative text, the Attorney General's explanatory statement, WIAA Rules 18.4 and 18.16 in the 2026-27 handbook, and the three sports-physical forms the WIAA posts.
  3. Collected the Yes side's own words from its website, myth-versus-fact page, August 27 and October 6 releases, its spokesperson's statements to reporters and a pamphlet co-author's essay, and requested Wayback Machine copies of each campaign page.
  4. Rated three Yes pamphlet sentences by their statement ids in the FactHub dataset of pamphlet statements: medical clearance, the no-ban sentence and male athletic advantage.
  5. Tested the 110,000 figure against NFHS participation surveys and counted, by year, the entries in FactHub's anonymized copy of the advocacy table the Yes side's 269 figure comes from.
  6. Compared the August 27 release's account of the Washington AAP chapter director's email with the email itself, as the campaign published it, and with the AAP's Bright Futures guidelines.
  7. Listed what the campaign's poll release does and does not disclose, recomputed its 56% from the published weights, and looked for independent polls.
  8. Gave the Yes side's claims the same tests FactHub applied to the No side's, and recorded the limits of each line of evidence.

Editorial note: Scope: this article rates the Let's Go Washington FAQ sentence on the doctor's checkbox, three sentences of the Yes argument and rebuttal in the 2026 voters' pamphlet (cited by statement id from the FactHub dataset of pamphlet statements), and five statements from the campaign's website and releases. It is the counterpart to FactHub's checks of the No side's claims, and applies the same standards. We quote the campaign's pages as they read on October 23, 2026, and requested Wayback Machine copies that day (listed under resources). Two passages exist only as images on the campaign's site, the Washington AAP chapter director's email and the poll chart; we transcribed them. We do not name the two student athletes quoted on the campaign page. FactHub takes no position on I-638. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: None known.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. Government Washington Secretary of State. Initiative Measure No. IL26-638, final filed text (filed June 2, 2025)

    The measure's full text; Section 3 contains the participation rule and the verification requirement.

    Reliability: The official filed text as published by the Secretary of State; the measure itself was written by its sponsors.

    • Verification takes a statement signed by the student's personal health care provider, as part of the sports physical.

      What the source says
      as part of the required routine sports physical examination, a health examination and consent form or other statement signed by the student's personal health care provider that verifies the student's biological sex
      Section 3(2)

    • Qualifies: The provider may rely only on anatomy, genetics or normal testosterone; the text names no procedure or form.

      What the source says
      relying only on one or more of the following: The student's reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup, or normal endogenously produced testosterone levels.
      Section 3(2)

    • The rule bars biologically male students only from competition intended for female students.

      What the source says
      must prohibit biologically male students from competing with and against female students in athletic activities with separate classifications for male and female students
      Section 3(1)
  2. Government Washington Secretary of State. 2026 General Election voters' pamphlet, Initiative Measure IL26-638 (statewide edition)

    The Attorney General's explanatory statement and the official arguments for and against IL26-638, pages 20-22.

    Reliability: The Attorney General writes the explanatory statement; the Secretary of State prints each campaign's argument as submitted and does not check it.

    • Qualifies: The Attorney General's statement says students would have to undergo some type of medical evaluation of their sex.

      What the source says
      Students would thus have to undergo some type of medical evaluation of their sex to participate in interschool sports designated for female students only.
      p. 21, Explanatory Statement, The Effect of the Proposed Measure if Approved

    • Qualifies: The Attorney General's statement says the measure would generally keep transgender girls off girls' teams.

      What the source says
      This would generally prevent transgender girls from participating on girls' sports teams.
      p. 21, Explanatory Statement, The Effect of the Proposed Measure if Approved

    • The Yes argument says medical clearance is already required.

      What the source says
      Medical clearance is already required to participate safely.
      p. 22, Argument for · Committee for the argument for IL26-638

    • Qualifies: The Yes rebuttal says the measure bans no one from sports.

      What the source says
      The initiative doesn't ban anyone from sports. It simply requires participation consistent with one's sex.
      p. 22, Rebuttal of argument against · Committee for the argument for IL26-638

    • The Yes rebuttal says male athletic advantage is well established.

      What the source says
      Male athletic advantage is well established.
      p. 22, Rebuttal of argument against · Committee for the argument for IL26-638
  3. Other Washington Interscholastic Activities Association. WIAA Handbook 2026-27: Rule 18.4 (Physical Examination) and Rule 18.16 (Gender Identity Participation)

    The rules of the association that governs Washington school sports, including what the sports physical must document and who may play in girls' events.

    Reliability: The WIAA would carry out I-638 for its member schools. Its current gender-identity rule is what the measure would change.

    • A medical examination and a licensed provider's approval are required before a student's first practice.

      What the source says
      Prior to the first practice for participation in interscholastic athletics a student shall undergo a thorough medical examination and be approved for interscholastic athletic competition by a medical authority licensed to perform a physical examination.
      Rule 18.4.0

    • Qualifies: The rule lists what the exam must document: history, cardiopulmonary exam, orthopedic screen and fitness; sex is not on the list.

      What the source says
      Results of the exam shall indicate: … Documentation of satisfactory sport-specific orthopedic screening examination.
      Rule 18.4.1 and 18.4.1.1-18.4.1.4

    • Clearance must be renewed every 24 months.

      What the source says
      For each subsequent 24 month period the student shall furnish a statement or physical examination form signed by a medical authority licensed to perform a physical examination that provides clearance for continued athletic participation.
      Rule 18.4.7

    • Qualifies: Current WIAA rules let athletes play in the program matching their gender identity.

      What the source says
      Athletes will participate in programs consistent with their gender identity or the gender most consistently expressed.
      Rule 18.16.0
  4. Other Washington Interscholastic Activities Association. Preparticipation Physical Evaluation: Medical Eligibility Form (2019 multi-society form, as posted by WIAA)

    The clearance form a provider signs for school sports; it asks for name and date of birth, not sex.

    Reliability: The form posted by the association that governs Washington school sports; the examination findings stay in the provider's office.

    • Qualifies: Only the Medical Eligibility Form goes to the school, and it has no field for sex.

      What the source says
      The Medical Eligibility Form is the only form that should be submitted to a school or sports organization
      Header note, page 1
  5. Other Washington Interscholastic Activities Association. WIAA Forms: Health and Wellness Forms (accessed October 23, 2026)

    The WIAA's forms page, which links the three sports-physical forms and says which stays with the doctor and which goes to the school.

    Reliability: The association that governs Washington school sports and would carry out I-638 for its member schools.

    • Qualifies: The history and examination forms stay with the doctor; only the eligibility form goes to the school.

      What the source says
      The recommended pre-participation history – STAYS WITH YOUR DOCTOR … The recommended medical clearance form – GIVE TO YOUR SCHOOL
      Health & Wellness Forms section
  6. Academic American Academy of Pediatrics. Preparticipation Physical Evaluation: History Form (PPE 5th edition, revised)

    The standard family-completed history form for the sports physical, from the 2019 multi-society PPE monograph.

    Reliability: Published by the AAP with five other medical societies; it predates I-638. The family, not the provider, fills in the sex entry.

    • Qualifies: The history form asks the family to record the athlete's sex assigned at birth.

      What the source says
      Sex assigned at birth (F, M, or intersex):
      History form, page 1
  7. News report KUOW Public Radio. Transgender ballot initiative could require genital exams for WA secondary school students (Sarah Mizes-Tan, June 4, 2026)

    News report on how verification would work, with comment from the WIAA.

    Reliability: Seattle public radio newsroom; its headline uses the No side's framing, but the passages used here are reported facts and a WIAA official's words.

    • Washington sports clearance forms sent to schools have had no sex checkbox since 2019.

      What the source says
      The state previously required sports clearance forms to include a checkbox to indicate sex, but in 2019 the policy changed. That checkbox no longer appears on forms sent to schools
      Paragraph after the WIAA quote

    • Qualifies: The WIAA says how verification would work has not been worked out.

      What the source says
      There's going to have to be conversations with the medical professionals across the state as to what is going to be required and what that looks like.
      Quote from Justin Kesterson · Justin Kesterson, assistant executive director, WIAA
  8. Party to the dispute Let's Go Washington. The Initiatives 2026: Yes on I-638 (FAQ and talking points, read October 23, 2026)

    The Yes sponsor's I-638 page, with its FAQ, its 'Protect Fairness' talking points and a statement from two student athletes.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Let's Go Washington sponsors and funds the Yes campaign; the page gives no sources for its figures. Archived October 23, 2026.

    • The FAQ says a doctor will simply check a box on an existing physical form to confirm a child's sex.

      What the source says
      A doctor will simply check a box on a physical form that already exists to confirm a child’s sex.
      FAQ: Does I-638 require genital exams for student athletes?

    • Contradicts: The FAQ says a doctor may use the history form or any method the doctor and patient choose.

      What the source says
      They can use existing medical history knowledge, the existing medical history form, or any other method the doctor and patient deem is best to check the box on the sports physical form.
      FAQ: Does I-638 require genital exams for student athletes?

    • Contradicts: The page says more than 110,000 girls are increasingly required to compete against biological males, without a source.

      What the source says
      Every female athlete in Washington deserves a fair playing field, yet more than 110,000 girls are increasingly required to compete against biological males.
      PROTECT FAIRNESS

    • Qualifies: The page describes the 110,000 as all girls playing sports in Washington middle and high schools.

      What the source says
      we are standing up for all 110,000 girls playing sports in Washington state middle and high schools.
      Why do we need this initiative? · Two student athletes quoted by Let's Go Washington

    • Qualifies: The page says existing law requires a physical that includes a declaration of biological sex.

      What the source says
      Existing law requires athletes to have a physical exam that includes a declaration of their biological sex.
      Three important facts about the protecting fairness in girls sports initiative
  9. Party to the dispute Let's Go Washington. The Truth About The Initiatives (read October 23, 2026)

    The Yes sponsor's myth-versus-fact page answering the No campaign.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Let's Go Washington sponsors the Yes campaign. It cites emails from the WIAA that it has not published. Archived October 23, 2026.

    • Contradicts: The Yes sponsor calls the 5-10 estimate a gross underestimation and unsubstantiated.

      What the source says
      NHWS claiming that there are only 5-10 biological males in girls’ sports is not only a gross underestimation but is also factually unsubstantiated.
      2. Participation Numbers Are Not Substantiated

    • Qualifies: The Yes sponsor says the WIAA told it that it does not track transgender participation.

      What the source says
      The WIAA has confirmed in emails with LGW that they do not track trans participation across sports.
      2. Participation Numbers Are Not Substantiated

    • Contradicts: The page says a doctor can verify sex from existing forms, knowing the patient, or any agreed method.

      What the source says
      A doctor can verify an athlete’s sex based on their existing medical forms, history of knowing their patient, or any other method the doctor and patient agree is best.
      4. Medical Claims Are Not Supported by Evidence
  10. Party to the dispute Let's Go Washington. LGW outlines double-standards with SOS and addresses AAP (press release, August 27, 2026)

    The Yes sponsor's release on the AAP's request to be removed from the Yes pamphlet argument, with screenshots of its emails with the Washington AAP chapter director.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Let's Go Washington sponsors the Yes campaign; the release publishes one side of a private exchange. Archived October 23, 2026.

    • Qualifies: The release says the chapter director confirmed genital exams are standard for boys and pre-pubertal girls, and calls opponents liars.

      What the source says
      In the conversation, the ED confirmed that genital exams are standard for all boys and for girls before they hit puberty. The opposition has lied about this and attempted to twist reality.
      Third paragraph
  11. Party to the dispute Let's Go Washington (screenshot of Washington Chapter AAP email). Email from the executive director of the Washington Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics to Let's Go Washington, August 26, 2026, 10:48 AM (image published with the August 27 release)

    Screenshot of the chapter director's reply, as published by Let's Go Washington; the text is in the image only.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Published by the Yes sponsor; the passage quoted here cuts against the use the release makes of the email. Archived October 23, 2026.

    • Qualifies: The director wrote that after girls begin menstruating the genital exam is often deferred.

      What the source says
      After girls begin menstruating, there is no further tanner stage change ("sexual maturity rating" in the Bright Futures guidelines) to observe on genital exam, so it is often deferred if there are no concern/complaints.
      Email body, second sentence (transcribed from the image) · Executive director, Washington Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics
  12. Advocacy group The Advocate (reprinting Them). Pediatrics association tells transphobes not to use its name to push for school sports genital exams (August 2026)

    Report on the AAP dispute that quotes two statements by the Washington AAP chapter director from the screenshots Let's Go Washington published.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. LGBTQ outlet that opposes the measure, as its headline shows. Used only for two quoted lines from the chapter director, both from Let's Go Washington's own release.

    • The chapter director wrote that genital exams are standard at well checks for all boys and pre-pubertal girls.

      What the source says
      genital exams are standard for annual well checks in all boys and in all pre-pubertal girls,
      Paragraph on LGW's screenshots · Executive director, Washington Chapter of the AAP (as published by Let's Go Washington)

    • Qualifies: The same director wrote that there is no medical reason for sex verification to clear a child for sports.

      What the source says
      no indication for sex verification to obtain medical clearance to participate safely in sports.
      Paragraph on LGW's screenshots · Executive director, Washington Chapter of the AAP (as published by Let's Go Washington)
  13. Academic American Academy of Pediatrics. Bright Futures Guidelines for Health Supervision of Infants, Children, and Adolescents, 4th ed.: Adolescence Visits (11 through 21 years)

    The AAP's national guidance for well-child visits for adolescents, including what the physical examination should cover.

    Reliability: The AAP's clinical guideline for preventive pediatric care. The AAP opposes laws like I-638, but these guidelines predate the measure and do not address sports eligibility.

    • Qualifies: For girls aged 11 to 14, the guidelines call for a visual inspection of the genitalia to assess sexual maturity.

      What the source says
      Genitalia … Female … Perform visual inspection for sexual maturity rating. … A pelvic examination may be clinically warranted, based on specific problems.
      11 Through 14 Year Visits, Physical Examination, Genitalia, pp. 740-741
  14. News report The Seattle Times. Ferguson urges voters to reject potential trans girl athletes ban (Ryan Nguyen, September 29, 2026)

    News report with Let's Go Washington's written response to the governor and a poll by the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center.

    Reliability: Statewide daily newspaper. The poll it cites is from a progressive ballot-measure group and is reported without dates or margin of error.

    • Qualifies: The Yes campaign's spokesperson describes the plan as adding a checkbox back onto the form.

      What the source says
      We’re talking about adding a checkbox back onto a form that doctors already fill out
      Statement from Hallie Herzberg · Hallie Herzberg, communications director, Let's Go Washington

    • Contradicts: A Ballot Initiative Strategy Center poll found 43% of 400 Washington voters planned to vote for I-638.

      What the source says
      43% of the 400 Washington voters surveyed said they planned to vote in favor of Initiative 638.
      Paragraph on polling
  15. Party to the dispute Jess Grant (Substack). Dishonest Politics (October 22, 2026)

    Essay by a co-author of the Yes pamphlet argument describing how I-638's verification would work.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. The author co-signed the Yes argument in the voters' pamphlet; the essay is campaign material.

    • Qualifies: A Yes pamphlet co-author describes the box as new, on the existing form.

      What the source says
      requiring the athlete’s doctor to check a new box (M or F) on the same form we’ve used for years.
      Opening paragraph · Jess Grant, co-author of the Yes pamphlet argument
  16. Government Data Resource Center for Child and Adolescent Health (NSCH). NSCH 2023-24: Medical Home Component: Personal doctor or nurse, Washington

    National Survey of Children's Health estimate of Washington children with and without a personal doctor or nurse, 2023-2024 combined.

    Reliability: The NSCH is funded and directed by the federal Health Resources and Services Administration and fielded by the Census Bureau; this query tool is run by the Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative at Johns Hopkins.

    • Qualifies: In 2023-24, 25.3% of Washington children had no personal doctor or nurse.

      What the source says
      Does not have a personal doctor or nurse … 25.3
      Results table, Washington, 2023-2024
  17. Other National Federation of State High School Associations. 2024-25 High School Athletics Participation Survey

    The national annual survey of high-school sports participation by state, as reported by each state association.

    Reliability: Compiled by the national federation of state high-school associations from figures each state association reports; counts participations, not individual students.

    • Qualifies: Washington reported 79,020 girls' high-school sports participations in 2024-25 (boys 102,057).

      What the source says
      16. Washington … 102,057 79,020 181,077
      State totals table (boys, girls, total), p. 58

    • Qualifies: NFHS counts a student once for each sport, so participations exceed the number of girls.

      What the source says
      individual who participated in two sports is counted twice
      Footnote 1, p. 58
  18. Other National Federation of State High School Associations. 2025-26 High School Athletics Participation Survey

    The national annual survey of high-school sports participation by state, 2025-26.

    Reliability: Compiled from state association reports; Washington's girls' figure rose 28% in one year, which may partly reflect reporting changes.

    • Qualifies: Washington reported 101,194 girls' high-school sports participations in 2025-26 (boys 112,109).

      What the source says
      13. Washington … 112,109 101,194 213,303
      State totals table (boys, girls, total), p. 59
  19. FactHub record FactHub. Washington girls' school events entered by male-born athletes, as tallied by HeCheated.org (anonymized) (dataset)

    FactHub's anonymized copy of the advocacy table the Yes side's 269 placements come from, one row per event entered.

    • Contradicts: By our count of the entries table's pamphlet-era rows, entries by calendar year were 16 in 2022, 82 in 2023, 86 in 2024, 34 in 2025 and 5 in 2026 through August, from 3, 7, 5, 5 and 2 athletes.

    • Contradicts: Ten athletes account for all 269 entries; one entry is from 1977.

  20. News report Fox News. State education chief says it's 'inaccurate' to say there are only two genders, in defense of trans athletes

    February 21, 2025 report quoting Superintendent Chris Reykdal's estimate of transgender participants in interscholastic activities.

    Reliability: National news report; the quote is Reykdal's, from a February 2025 address criticizing the federal executive order on girls' sports.

    • Contradicts: The state superintendent estimated in 2025 that roughly five to 10 students in interscholastic activities identified as transgender.

      What the source says
      Out of nearly a quarter million kids participating in interscholastic athletics and activities in the state of Washington, roughly five to 10 youth have identified themselves as trans participating in those activities
      Body, quoting Reykdal · Chris Reykdal, Washington Superintendent of Public Instruction
  21. Party to the dispute Let's Go Washington. New poll shows support for parent's right to know and fairness in girls' sports (press release, October 6, 2026)

    The Yes sponsor's release of its poll on I-001 and I-638.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Let's Go Washington commissioned or conducted the poll and sponsors the measure; it has not named a pollster. Archived October 23, 2026.

    • Qualifies: The release says I-638 received 56% support from respondents.

      What the source says
      I-001 received 51% support among participants and I-638 received 56% support from respondents.
      Second paragraph
  22. Party to the dispute Let's Go Washington (poll results chart). I-001 and I-638 survey results chart, published with the October 6, 2026 release

    The only results the campaign published: support by party and a projected vote weighted by party share; the text is in the image only.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Published by the Yes sponsor. The party weights come from a third-party website the chart cites. Archived October 23, 2026.

    • Qualifies: The chart labels the 56% a projected vote adjusted for party share, from 73% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats and 52% of independents, weighted 27%, 52% and 21%.

      What the source says
      Projected Vote Adjusted for Party Share
      Chart heading, right column (transcribed from the image)
  23. News report KOMO News (KATU). New polling shows support for Washington transgender girls sports initiative (Vasili Varlamos, October 7, 2026)

    Television news report on the Let's Go Washington poll, with what the campaign told the station.

    Reliability: Portland and Seattle Sinclair stations; reports what the campaign disclosed and what it declined to provide.

    • Qualifies: The campaign told KATU it surveyed 7,500 likely voters with the ballot title.

      What the source says
      Let’s Go Washington told KATU the poll surveyed 7,500 likely Washington voters and presented respondents with the ballot title.
      Paragraph on methodology

    • Qualifies: The poll was done for the Yes campaign and its full data and margin of error were not provided.

      What the source says
      The group has not provided KATU with the full polling data or methodology, including the margin of error, so the results cannot be independently evaluated.
      Paragraph on methodology
  24. News report KUOW Public Radio. Polling shows ban on trans girls in girls' sports could pass in November (Sarah Mizes-Tan, October 5, 2026)

    News report on polling about I-638, including the Let's Go Washington poll before its release.

    Reliability: Seattle public radio newsroom; the field period comes from its caption on the campaign's results.

    • Qualifies: KUOW reports the campaign's poll results were collected in August 2026.

      What the source says
      These poll results were collected in August 2026.
      Caption under the campaign's results
  25. Government Washington Secretary of State. Guide to Registering Voters in Washington State (2023)

    The Secretary of State's guide for voter-registration drives.

    Reliability: Official guidance from the state's chief elections officer.

    • Qualifies: Washington voters do not register by party, so party shares of the electorate are estimates.

      What the source says
      Voters in Washington do not register by political party.
      Party Affiliation
  26. Peer-reviewed study Sports Medicine (Springer). Transgender Women in the Female Category of Sport: Perspectives on Testosterone Suppression and Performance Advantage (Hilton and Lundberg, 2021) Free copy DOI: 10.1007/s40279-020-01389-3

    Peer-reviewed review of sex differences in athletic performance and of studies on testosterone suppression in transgender women.

    Reliability: Written by a UK biologist and a Swedish exercise physiologist who argue sports bodies should reconsider transgender inclusion policies; its findings on the general sex gap match other reviews.

    • The male-female performance gap becomes significant at puberty and often reaches 10-50% depending on the sport.

      What the source says
      We report that the performance gap between males and females becomes significant at puberty and often amounts to 10–50% depending on sport.
      Abstract

    • Qualifies: Advantages from male puberty are only minimally reduced by testosterone suppression; the review concerns those who went through male puberty.

      What the source says
      the biological advantage, most notably in terms of muscle mass and strength, conferred by male puberty and thus enjoyed by most transgender women is only minimally reduced when testosterone is suppressed
      Introduction
  27. archive Let's Go Washington, The Initiatives 2026 (Wayback Machine, October 23, 2026)

    Archived copy of the FAQ and talking points quoted in this check.

  28. archive Let's Go Washington, The Truth About The Initiatives (Wayback Machine, October 23, 2026)

    Archived copy of the myth-versus-fact page.

  29. archive Let's Go Washington, August 27, 2026 AAP release (Wayback Machine, October 23, 2026)

    Archived copy of the release; the email screenshot is archived separately below.

  30. archive Washington AAP chapter director's email screenshot (Wayback Machine, October 23, 2026)

    Archived copy of the email image the campaign published.

  31. archive Let's Go Washington, October 6, 2026 poll release and chart (Wayback Machine, October 23, 2026)

    Archived copy of the poll release; the chart image is archived at web/20261023225054.

  32. FactHub dataset Initiative 638: the campaigns' claims in their own words
    • Medical clearance is already required to participate safely.
      Committee for the argument for Initiative IL26-638 (Alesha Perkins and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument for IL26-638, · In the dataset
    • The initiative doesn't ban anyone from sports. It simply requires participation consistent with one's sex.
      Committee for the argument for Initiative IL26-638 (Alesha Perkins and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument for IL26-638, · In the dataset
    • Male athletic advantage is well established.
      Committee for the argument for Initiative IL26-638 (Alesha Perkins and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument for IL26-638, · In the dataset
  33. FactHub dataset Washington girls' school events entered by male-born athletes, as tallied by HeCheated.org (anonymized)

    Tables: entries

    Table entries, rows counted in the pamphlet tally, grouped by calendar year and athlete (FactHub count)

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