Households leaving Washington earn more than those moving in, IRS data show

The short version

Claim we investigated

Since 2021, households leaving Washington have earned more on average than households moving in.

True. IRS records show leavers' average income topped arrivals' in each year since 2020-21, by 11% in 2022-23. Households that left Washington reported $100,122 in average income on 2022 tax returns, against $89,890 for arrivals. Leavers also led the two years before. Per person, the gap is only 2.4%.

Quote or cite this fact-check

FactHub rates the claim “Since 2021, households leaving Washington have earned more on average than households moving in” True (high confidence): IRS records show leavers' average income topped arrivals' in each year since 2020-21, by 11% in 2022-23. Reviewed November 3, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-leavers-earn-more-than-arrivals/1

Key points

What the evidence establishes

Established. In 2022-23, households leaving Washington averaged $100,122 in income, 11% more than the $89,890 of households moving in.
Established. Leavers have out-earned arrivals three IRS years in a row. Before that, arrivals usually earned as much or more.
Established. Washington lost more $200,000-plus tax filers than it gained in each of those three years, after gaining them every earlier year.
Context. Per person, the gap is only 2.4%, because arriving households are smaller. Oregon, which has an income tax, shows the same pattern.
Not shown. The records end with 2022 income, so they can't show any reaction to the 2026 income tax.

Important context: The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax returns whose address moves from one state to another between two filing years. Its latest file, 2022-23, covers moves between spring 2022 and spring 2023 and income earned in 2022. Initiative 645, on Washington's November 3, 2026 ballot, would repeal a 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million that applies from 2028. The claim came from the Yes on 645 campaign, citing an analysis it credits to the Association of Washington Business, a statewide business group.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 6 methods across 3 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.

Evidence map
Method	Institution / country	Year(s)	What it shows	Key limitation	Primary links
IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state migration files, 2011-12 to 2022-23: Washington's 'Total Migration-US' inflow and outflow rows, average adjusted gross income (AGI) per return.	Internal Revenue Service United States	2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023	In 2022-23, 112,345 returns left Washington with $11.25 billion in AGI ($100,122 each), and 122,184 arrived with $10.98 billion ($89,890 each). In 2021-22 leavers averaged $119,403 and arrivals $103,160. In 2020-21 leavers led by 1.5%. In 7 of the 9 years before that, arrivals earned more.	Averages per tax return are pulled up by a few very high incomes and one-time gains. IRS publishes no medians. All of these figures come from one agency's records, and no independent source measures movers' income by state this way.	FactHub dataset: average income of Washington movers Internal Revenue Service Internal Revenue Service
IRS gross migration files by income class, 2011-12 to 2022-23: returns with AGI of $200,000 or more moving in minus moving out.	Internal Revenue Service United States	2012, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023	Washington gained $200,000-plus filers every year from 2011-12 to 2019-20, up to 2,400 in 2016-17. It lost 111 in 2020-21, 1,579 in 2021-22 and 2,057 in 2022-23. The 2022-23 loss is 0.51% of the state's $200,000-plus filers, about the same as Oregon's 0.50%.	$200,000 is a fixed dollar line that more filers cross as incomes rise, and it is far below the $1 million threshold of the new tax. This file includes moves abroad.	FactHub dataset: net $200,000-plus filers FactHub dataset: high-income filers in comparison states FactHub dataset: size of the net loss
The same IRS files, comparing income per person, income within six age groups, and income in the year before the move.	Internal Revenue Service United States	2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023	Per person, 2022-23 leavers earned $58,385 and arrivals $57,017, a 2.4% gap, because arrivals bring 1.58 people per return against 1.71. Within the same age groups leavers still earned more in 5 of 6 groups, and about 7% more overall. In the year before moving, 2021-22 leavers and arrivals earned nearly the same.	Age is only the main filer's. Income in the year of the move may be partly earned in the old state.	FactHub dataset: per return and per person FactHub dataset: age check FactHub dataset: income before the move
The same IRS comparison for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and for Washington's largest partner states.	Internal Revenue Service United States	2021, 2022, 2023	In 2022-23 leavers out-earned arrivals in 29 of 51 states and DC; Washington ranked 10th. Oregon (+9.8%) and California (+6.9%) were close behind. Washington still gained income on net from California and Oregon, and lost it to Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho.	One-year rankings shift with a few large incomes, and small states swing the most.	FactHub dataset: leaver premium by state FactHub dataset: all-state ranking FactHub dataset: partner states
Washington's capital gains tax statute, the 2026 income tax session law, and the IRS users guide for the migration files.	Washington State Legislature, Internal Revenue Service United States	2021, 2022, 2026	Washington's capital gains tax applies to sales from January 1, 2022. The income tax was approved March 30, 2026 and applies from January 1, 2028. IRS's latest file reports 2022 income, so it covers the capital gains tax's first year but nothing about the income tax.	Laws show when taxes apply, not why any household moved.	Washington State Legislature Washington State Legislature Internal Revenue Service
The Yes on 645 campaign's post and the PDF it linked.	Yes on 645 campaign United States	2026	The campaign wrote that an Association of Washington Business analysis of IRS data found leavers have earned more on average since 2021. The linked PDF says arriving households reported less total income than departing ones in the last two years.	The PDF was found only on the campaign's website, so its authorship is unconfirmed. Both are statements by a side in the election, not evidence.	Vote Yes 645 (@voteyes645) PDF linked by the Yes on 645 campaign

1. IRS records: leavers' average income passed arrivals' after 2019-20 IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state migration files, 2011-12 to 2022-23: Washington's 'Total Migration-US' inflow and outflow rows, average adjusted gross income (AGI) per return.

In 2022-23, 112,345 returns left Washington with $11.25 billion in AGI ($100,122 each), and 122,184 arrived with $10.98 billion ($89,890 each). In 2021-22 leavers averaged $119,403 and arrivals $103,160. In 2020-21 leavers led by 1.5%. In 7 of the 9 years before that, arrivals earned more.

Limit: Averages per tax return are pulled up by a few very high incomes and one-time gains. IRS publishes no medians. All of these figures come from one agency's records, and no independent source measures movers' income by state this way.

Verify: Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington State-to-state outflow migration data, 2022-2023 (stateoutflow2223.csv) State-to-state inflow migration data, 2022-2023 (stateinflow2223.csv)

In 2022-23 leavers averaged $100,122 and arrivals $89,890, an 11.4% gap. FactHub dataset: average income of Washington movers
In 2021-22 leavers averaged $119,403 and arrivals $103,160, a 15.7% gap, with a net income loss of $1.66 billion. FactHub dataset: average income of Washington movers
Leavers also led in 2020-21 (+1.5%). Arrivals earned more in 7 of the 9 years from 2011-12 to 2019-20. FactHub dataset: average income of Washington movers
In 2022-23, 112,345 returns with 192,657 people and $11.25 billion in AGI moved from Washington to other states. Internal Revenue Service
In 2022-23, 122,184 returns with 192,628 people and $10.98 billion in AGI moved to Washington from other states. Internal Revenue Service

Households leaving Washington have reported more average income than arrivals since 2020-21. Before that, arrivals usually earned as much or more. View source chart

2. IRS records: Washington now loses more high-income filers than it gains IRS gross migration files by income class, 2011-12 to 2022-23: returns with AGI of $200,000 or more moving in minus moving out.

Washington gained $200,000-plus filers every year from 2011-12 to 2019-20, up to 2,400 in 2016-17. It lost 111 in 2020-21, 1,579 in 2021-22 and 2,057 in 2022-23. The 2022-23 loss is 0.51% of the state's $200,000-plus filers, about the same as Oregon's 0.50%.

Limit: $200,000 is a fixed dollar line that more filers cross as incomes rise, and it is far below the $1 million threshold of the new tax. This file includes moves abroad.

Verify: Net $200,000-plus filers moving to Washington Net $200,000-plus filers, Washington and comparison states, 2022-23 Washington's 2022-23 net income loss compared with all its matched income

Washington gained $200,000-plus filers on net every year through 2019-20 and lost 111, 1,579 and 2,057 in the next three years. FactHub dataset: net $200,000-plus filers
In 2022-23 Washington's net loss was 0.51% of its $200,000-plus filers; Oregon's was 0.50% and California's 0.85%. FactHub dataset: high-income filers in comparison states · Qualifies
The 2022-23 net loss of $265 million is about 0.07% of the $393.5 billion reported by Washington filers in the IRS file. FactHub dataset: size of the net loss · Qualifies

Washington gained more $200,000-plus filers than it lost through 2019-20, then lost more than it gained for three years. View source chart

3. Checks for household size, age and timing The same IRS files, comparing income per person, income within six age groups, and income in the year before the move.

Per person, 2022-23 leavers earned $58,385 and arrivals $57,017, a 2.4% gap, because arrivals bring 1.58 people per return against 1.71. Within the same age groups leavers still earned more in 5 of 6 groups, and about 7% more overall. In the year before moving, 2021-22 leavers and arrivals earned nearly the same.

Limit: Age is only the main filer's. Income in the year of the move may be partly earned in the old state.

Verify: Washington movers per return and per person, 2022-23 Washington leavers vs arrivals, adjusted for age Washington movers' income in the year before and the year of the move

Per person, 2022-23 leavers earned $58,385 and arrivals $57,017, a 2.4% gap; arrivals had 1.58 people per return and leavers 1.71. FactHub dataset: per return and per person · Qualifies
With arrivals reweighted to leavers' ages, leavers still earned more: $102,949 vs $96,041 in 2022-23, higher in 5 of 6 age groups. FactHub dataset: age check
The year before moving, 2021-22 leavers and arrivals averaged nearly the same ($93,925 vs $92,927); leavers' income jumped to $122,056 in the year of the move. FactHub dataset: income before the move · Qualifies

4. Other states: the same pattern in Oregon and California The same IRS comparison for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and for Washington's largest partner states.

In 2022-23 leavers out-earned arrivals in 29 of 51 states and DC; Washington ranked 10th. Oregon (+9.8%) and California (+6.9%) were close behind. Washington still gained income on net from California and Oregon, and lost it to Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho.

Limit: One-year rankings shift with a few large incomes, and small states swing the most.

Verify: Leaver premium in Washington and comparison states Leaver premium in every state, 2022-23 Washington's largest migration partners, 2022-23

In 2022-23 leavers out-earned arrivals by 11.4% in Washington, 9.8% in Oregon and 6.9% in California; arrivals earned more in Texas, Arizona, Idaho and Florida. FactHub dataset: leaver premium by state · Qualifies
Leavers out-earned arrivals in 29 of 51 states and DC in 2022-23; Washington ranked 10th. FactHub dataset: all-state ranking · Qualifies
Washington gained income on net from California (+$669 million) and Oregon (+$487 million) and lost it to Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho. FactHub dataset: partner states · Qualifies

Oregon and California show the same gap as Washington; Texas, Arizona, Idaho and Florida draw arrivals who out-earn their leavers. View source chart

5. Laws and IRS rules: what the data can and can't cover Washington's capital gains tax statute, the 2026 income tax session law, and the IRS users guide for the migration files.

Washington's capital gains tax applies to sales from January 1, 2022. The income tax was approved March 30, 2026 and applies from January 1, 2028. IRS's latest file reports 2022 income, so it covers the capital gains tax's first year but nothing about the income tax.

Limit: Laws show when taxes apply, not why any household moved.

Verify: RCW 82.87.040, Tax imposed—Long-term capital assets Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide

Washington's 7% capital gains tax applies to sales from January 1, 2022. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
The income tax law was approved on March 30, 2026. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
The tax applies to income from January 1, 2028. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
The rate is 9.9% of Washington taxable income. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
Income and people counts come from the second year's return, filed from the new address. Internal Revenue Service · Qualifies
The 2022-23 file's returns filed in 2023 report income earned in 2022, so the latest data stop at 2022 income. Internal Revenue Service · Qualifies
IRS changed its matching method for 2022-23, adding about 5% more returns, so that year is not strictly comparable. Internal Revenue Service · Qualifies
The data cover tax filers only. Internal Revenue Service · Qualifies

6. What the campaign said The Yes on 645 campaign's post and the PDF it linked.

The campaign wrote that an Association of Washington Business analysis of IRS data found leavers have earned more on average since 2021. The linked PDF says arriving households reported less total income than departing ones in the last two years.

Limit: The PDF was found only on the campaign's website, so its authorship is unconfirmed. Both are statements by a side in the election, not evidence.

Verify: Post on X, November 2, 2026 Washington interstate migration, 2013–2023 (labeled 'Working analysis – Association of Washington Business', September 8, 2026)

The campaign claimed that, since 2021, households leaving Washington have earned more on average than households moving in. Vote Yes 645 (@voteyes645)
The PDF says arriving households reported less total income than departing ones in the last two years of data. PDF linked by the Yes on 645 campaign

Common questions 7

“Do people leaving Washington earn much more per person than people arriving?”

Short answer: No, about 2% more

Per person, leavers earned $58,385 in 2022-23 and arrivals $57,017, a 2.4% gap. Arriving households are smaller, 1.58 people per tax return against 1.71, so per household the gap looks bigger. Within the same age groups, leavers still earned about 7% more.

Per person, 2022-23 leavers earned $58,385 and arrivals $57,017, a 2.4% gap; arrivals had 1.58 people per return and leavers 1.71. FactHub dataset: per return and per person · Qualifies
With arrivals reweighted to leavers' ages, leavers still earned more: $102,949 vs $96,041 in 2022-23, higher in 5 of 6 age groups. FactHub dataset: age check

See the evidence: Checks for household size, age and timing

“Does Oregon, which has a state income tax, show the same pattern?”

Short answer: Yes, nearly the same

In 2022-23 Oregon's leavers out-earned its arrivals by 9.8%, close to Washington's 11.4%. Oregon also lost 0.50% of its $200,000-plus filers, against Washington's 0.51%. California, Minnesota, Massachusetts, New York and Illinois lost high earners too.

In 2022-23 Washington's net loss was 0.51% of its $200,000-plus filers; Oregon's was 0.50% and California's 0.85%. FactHub dataset: high-income filers in comparison states · Qualifies
In 2022-23 leavers out-earned arrivals by 11.4% in Washington, 9.8% in Oregon and 6.9% in California; arrivals earned more in Texas, Arizona, Idaho and Florida. FactHub dataset: leaver premium by state · Qualifies

See the evidence: IRS records: Washington now loses more high-income filers than it gains

“Washington is losing high earners.”

Our rating: Mostly true

Washington lost about 2,000 more $200,000-plus filers than it gained in 2022-23, the third straight net loss. That is about 0.5% of such filers, and the data end before the 2026 tax.

Washington gained $200,000-plus filers on net every year through 2019-20 and lost 111, 1,579 and 2,057 in the next three years. FactHub dataset: net $200,000-plus filers
In 2022-23 Washington's net loss was 0.51% of its $200,000-plus filers; Oregon's was 0.50% and California's 0.85%. FactHub dataset: high-income filers in comparison states · Qualifies

See the evidence: IRS records: Washington now loses more high-income filers than it gains

“How much income did Washington lose to moves in 2022-23?”

Short answer: About 0.07% of the total

Arrivals brought $265 million less income than leavers took, out of $393.5 billion reported by Washington filers in the IRS file. In 2021-22 the net loss was larger, $1.66 billion.

The 2022-23 net loss of $265 million is about 0.07% of the $393.5 billion reported by Washington filers in the IRS file. FactHub dataset: size of the net loss · Qualifies
In 2021-22 leavers averaged $119,403 and arrivals $103,160, a 15.7% gap, with a net income loss of $1.66 billion. FactHub dataset: average income of Washington movers

See the evidence: IRS records: leavers' average income passed arrivals' after 2019-20

“Is Washington losing households to other states?”

Short answer: No, it still gains them

More tax returns moved into Washington than out in every year of the data, 9,839 more in 2022-23. The number of people was about even: 192,628 in, 192,657 out. The campaign's own PDF says Washington is not seeing population flight.

In 2022-23, 122,184 returns with 192,628 people and $10.98 billion in AGI moved to Washington from other states. Internal Revenue Service
In 2022-23, 112,345 returns with 192,657 people and $11.25 billion in AGI moved from Washington to other states. Internal Revenue Service
The same PDF says Washington is not losing population on net in tax data. PDF linked by the Yes on 645 campaign · Qualifies

See the evidence: IRS records: leavers' average income passed arrivals' after 2019-20

“Does this data show people leaving because of the 2026 income tax?”

Short answer: No, it ends in 2022

The latest IRS file covers income earned in 2022. The income tax passed in March 2026 and applies from 2028. Moves made in reaction to it won't show up in IRS files until 2028 at the earliest.

The tax applies to income from January 1, 2028. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
The 2022-23 file's returns filed in 2023 report income earned in 2022, so the latest data stop at 2022 income. Internal Revenue Service · Qualifies
The income tax law was approved on March 30, 2026. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies

See the evidence: Laws and IRS rules: what the data can and can't cover

“Did Washington's 2022 capital gains tax cause the change?”

Short answer: Can't tell from this data

The shift began as the capital gains tax was passed and took effect, but timing alone can't show cause. In 2021-22, leavers and arrivals earned about the same the year before moving. Leavers' income jumped in the year they moved, which fits one-time gains such as selling stock or a home.

Washington's 7% capital gains tax applies to sales from January 1, 2022. Washington State Legislature · Qualifies
The year before moving, 2021-22 leavers and arrivals averaged nearly the same ($93,925 vs $92,927); leavers' income jumped to $122,056 in the year of the move. FactHub dataset: income before the move · Qualifies

See the evidence: Checks for household size, age and timing

Conclusion

The claim checks out. IRS records, built from every federal tax return filed in two straight years, show households leaving Washington reported more income on average than households arriving in 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23. The gap was 15.7% in 2021-22 and 11.4% in 2022-23. Washington also turned from gaining high-income filers every year to losing them three years in a row.

Three things keep this from meaning more than it says. First, much of the gap is household size. Arrivals bring fewer people per return, so per person the 2022-23 gap is only 2.4%. Leavers still earn more after adjusting for age, so the gap is not just young newcomers.

Second, Washington is not unusual. Leavers out-earned arrivals in 29 of 51 states and DC in 2022-23. Oregon, which has a state income tax, shows almost the same gap and the same rate of high-earner loss. Washington still gains households, and it still gains income from California and Oregon.

Third, the data are old. The newest IRS file reports income earned in 2022. It covers the first year of the capital gains tax, but it ends years before the 2026 income tax passed. It cannot show whether that tax will drive people out. The 2021-22 jump came mostly in the year of the move, which fits one-time gains.

The sizes are small. The 2022-23 net income loss was about 0.07% of the income Washington filers reported. Confidence is high because the figures come straight from IRS files and hold in all three recent years. Why households moved, and whether the trend continued after 2022, remains unknown.

How we checked

Defined the claim: whether households moving from Washington to other states reported higher average income than households moving in, in IRS filing years since 2020-21.
Downloaded IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state inflow and outflow files for 2011-12 through 2022-23, and the gross migration files by income class and age. The 2023-24 files were not yet published.
Computed average adjusted gross income per return and per person, net returns and net income for Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Texas, Florida and Arizona, and ranked all states.
Checked whether household size, age, or one-time income in the year of the move explains the gap, using income per person, six age groups and year-before-move income.
Read the capital gains statute, the 2026 income tax session law and the IRS users guide to pin down what years the data can cover.
Read the campaign's post and the PDF it linked as the claim being checked, not as evidence.
Recorded limits: one agency's data, averages not medians, filers only, the 2022-23 method change, and the lag behind the 2026 tax.

Editorial note: Scope: interstate moves to and from Washington in IRS migration data, filing years 2011-12 through 2022-23, with six comparison states and all-state rankings. The claim's source is a post by the Yes on 645 campaign. The PDF it links is labeled as an Association of Washington Business working analysis, but we found it only on the campaign's website. Every number here comes from IRS files, not from that PDF. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: None known.

Sources 17

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

Government Internal Revenue Service. State-to-state outflow migration data, 2022-2023 (stateoutflow2223.csv)
IRS Statistics of Income file of tax returns that moved out of each state between the 2022 and 2023 filing years. AGI is in thousands of dollars.

Reliability: Built by IRS from address changes on all individual returns filed in both years. IRS has no stake in Washington's tax debate.
- In 2022-23, 112,345 returns with 192,657 people and $11.25 billion in AGI moved from Washington to other states.
  
  What the source says
  
  53,97,WA,WA Total Migration-US,112345,192657,11248232
  Row y1_statefips 53, y2_statefips 97
Government Internal Revenue Service. State-to-state inflow migration data, 2022-2023 (stateinflow2223.csv)
IRS Statistics of Income file of tax returns that moved into each state between the 2022 and 2023 filing years.

Reliability: Same IRS return matching as the outflow file.
- In 2022-23, 122,184 returns with 192,628 people and $10.98 billion in AGI moved to Washington from other states.
  
  What the source says
  
  53,97,WA,WA Total Migration-US,122184,192628,10983098
  Row y2_statefips 53, y1_statefips 97
Government Internal Revenue Service. 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide
IRS documentation of how the migration files are built.

Reliability: IRS's own description of its data, including changes and limits.
- Qualifies: Income and people counts come from the second year's return, filed from the new address.
  
  What the source says
  
  The number of individuals and AGI are based on the year 2 tax return.
  Section E.1, State-to-State Outflow Files
- Qualifies: The 2022-23 file's returns filed in 2023 report income earned in 2022, so the latest data stop at 2022 income.
  
  What the source says
  
  Returns received in 2023 represent income that was earned in 2022.
  Section C.1, Basic Source Information
- Qualifies: IRS changed its matching method for 2022-23, adding about 5% more returns, so that year is not strictly comparable.
  
  What the source says
  
  This change results in about a 5 percent increase in the number of returns included in the data, compared to the prior method.
  Section B, Nature of Changes
- Qualifies: The data cover tax filers only.
  
  What the source says
  
  Data do not represent the full U.S. population because many individuals are not required to file an individual income tax return.
  Section C.1, Basic Source Information
Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 82.87.040, Tax imposed—Long-term capital assets
The statute that imposes Washington's capital gains tax.

Reliability: Official statute text from the Code Reviser.
- Qualifies: Washington's 7% capital gains tax applies to sales from January 1, 2022.
  
  What the source says
  
  Beginning January 1, 2022, an excise tax is imposed on the sale or exchange of long-term capital assets.
  Subsection (1)(a)
Government Washington State Legislature. Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, Chapter 238, Laws of 2026
The session law creating Washington's tax on income over $1 million.

Reliability: The enrolled bill as approved by the governor.
- Qualifies: The income tax law was approved on March 30, 2026.
  
  What the source says
  
  Approved March 30, 2026
  Certificate of enrollment, page 1
- Qualifies: The tax applies to income from January 1, 2028.
  
  What the source says
  
  Beginning January … 2028, a tax is imposed on the receipt of Washington taxable
  Section 201(1)
- Qualifies: The rate is 9.9% of Washington taxable income.
  
  What the source says
  
  equals 9.90 percent multiplied by an individual's Washington taxable
  Section 201(1)
Party to the dispute Vote Yes 645 (@voteyes645). Post on X, November 2, 2026
The Yes on Initiative 645 campaign's post making the claim, linking a PDF.

Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. The campaign for repealing Washington's income tax. Its post is the claim being checked, not evidence.
- The campaign claimed that, since 2021, households leaving Washington have earned more on average than households moving in.
  
  What the source says
  
  A new AWB analysis of IRS data finds that since 2021, households leaving Washington have earned more on average than households moving in.
  Post text
Party to the dispute PDF linked by the Yes on 645 campaign. Washington interstate migration, 2013–2023 (labeled 'Working analysis – Association of Washington Business', September 8, 2026)
Six-page analysis of IRS migration data hosted on the campaign's website.

Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Found only on the Yes on 645 campaign's site; we could not find it on the Association of Washington Business site. Its figures match IRS files.
- The PDF says arriving households reported less total income than departing ones in the last two years of data.
  
  What the source says
  
  arriving households reported less income in total than departing ones
  Page 1, opening paragraph
- Qualifies: The same PDF says Washington is not losing population on net in tax data.
  
  What the source says
  
  Washington is not experiencing net population flight in tax return data.
  Page 1, opening paragraph
FactHub record FactHub dataset: average income of Washington movers. Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington
Saved analysis of average AGI per return, 2011-12 to 2022-23.
- In 2022-23 leavers averaged $100,122 and arrivals $89,890, an 11.4% gap.
- In 2021-22 leavers averaged $119,403 and arrivals $103,160, a 15.7% gap, with a net income loss of $1.66 billion.
- Leavers also led in 2020-21 (+1.5%). Arrivals earned more in 7 of the 9 years from 2011-12 to 2019-20.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: net $200,000-plus filers. Net $200,000-plus filers moving to Washington
Saved analysis of net high-income returns, 2011-12 to 2022-23.
- Washington gained $200,000-plus filers on net every year through 2019-20 and lost 111, 1,579 and 2,057 in the next three years.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: high-income filers in comparison states. Net $200,000-plus filers, Washington and comparison states, 2022-23
Saved analysis comparing seven states.
- Qualifies: In 2022-23 Washington's net loss was 0.51% of its $200,000-plus filers; Oregon's was 0.50% and California's 0.85%.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: per return and per person. Washington movers per return and per person, 2022-23
Saved analysis of household size.
- Qualifies: Per person, 2022-23 leavers earned $58,385 and arrivals $57,017, a 2.4% gap; arrivals had 1.58 people per return and leavers 1.71.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: age check. Washington leavers vs arrivals, adjusted for age
Saved analysis by age of the main filer.
- With arrivals reweighted to leavers' ages, leavers still earned more: $102,949 vs $96,041 in 2022-23, higher in 5 of 6 age groups.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: income before the move. Washington movers' income in the year before and the year of the move
Saved analysis of year-1 and year-2 income.
- Qualifies: The year before moving, 2021-22 leavers and arrivals averaged nearly the same ($93,925 vs $92,927); leavers' income jumped to $122,056 in the year of the move.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: leaver premium by state. Leaver premium in Washington and comparison states
Saved analysis for seven states, 2011-12 to 2022-23.
- Qualifies: In 2022-23 leavers out-earned arrivals by 11.4% in Washington, 9.8% in Oregon and 6.9% in California; arrivals earned more in Texas, Arizona, Idaho and Florida.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: all-state ranking. Leaver premium in every state, 2022-23
Saved analysis ranking 50 states and DC.
- Qualifies: Leavers out-earned arrivals in 29 of 51 states and DC in 2022-23; Washington ranked 10th.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: partner states. Washington's largest migration partners, 2022-23
Saved analysis of moves to and from Washington's top partner states.
- Qualifies: Washington gained income on net from California (+$669 million) and Oregon (+$487 million) and lost it to Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho.
FactHub record FactHub dataset: size of the net loss. Washington's 2022-23 net income loss compared with all its matched income
Saved analysis of the net loss's size.
- Qualifies: The 2022-23 net loss of $265 million is about 0.07% of the $393.5 billion reported by Washington filers in the IRS file.
FactHub dataset Income of households moving to and from Washington, IRS migration data, 2011-12 to 2022-23
Tables: state-year, all-states, partner-states, age-bands

All tables
FactHub chart wa-movers-average-income
FactHub chart wa-net-high-earner-movers
FactHub chart leaver-income-premium-wa-peers

Update history 1 change, last November 3, 2026

November 3, 2026 First version.

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{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"ClaimReview","url":"https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-leavers-earn-more-than-arrivals/1","datePublished":"2026-11-03","dateModified":"2026-11-03","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"FactHub","url":"https://facthub.org/"},"claimReviewed":"Since 2021, households leaving Washington have earned more on average than households moving in.","reviewRating":{"@type":"Rating","alternateName":"True"},"image":"https://facthub.org/node-assets-v2/article/wa-leavers-earn-more-than-arrivals/1/interstate-bridge/social-1200x630.jpg"}

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Technical details: node handle article:wa-leavers-earn-more-than-arrivals

Households leaving Washington have out-earned arrivals since 2021.

What might surprise you

More charts in this check

The short version

Key points

What the evidence establishes

The evidence

Common questions 7

“Do people leaving Washington earn much more per person than people arriving?”

“Does Oregon, which has a state income tax, show the same pattern?”

“Washington is losing high earners.”

“How much income did Washington lose to moves in 2022-23?”

“Is Washington losing households to other states?”

“Does this data show people leaving because of the 2026 income tax?”

“Did Washington's 2022 capital gains tax cause the change?”

Conclusion

How we checked

Expert-review status

Funding and conflicts

Sources 17

Update history 1 change, last November 3, 2026

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What might surprise you

More charts in this check

The short version

Key points

What the evidence establishes

The evidence

Common questions 7

“Do people leaving Washington earn much more per person than people arriving?”

“Does Oregon, which has a state income tax, show the same pattern?”

“Washington is losing high earners.”

“How much income did Washington lose to moves in 2022-23?”

“Is Washington losing households to other states?”

“Does this data show people leaving because of the 2026 income tax?”

“Did Washington's 2022 capital gains tax cause the change?”

Conclusion

Related fact checks

How we checked

Expert-review status

Funding and conflicts

Sources 17

Update history 1 change, last November 3, 2026

For developers: ClaimReview data

Challenge this fact-check