Washington's emissions vs. a straight-line path to the 2030 limit

What this chart asks

Is Washington on a path to its 2030 greenhouse gas limit?

Why it is shown this way

• A line shows the 33-year trend and how far the 2022 value sits from the path.
• The y axis starts at zero so the size of the required cut is not exaggerated.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

2030 limit: 51.2

Threshold: 51.2

45% below Ecology's 1990 value of 93.1 million metric tons (RCW 70A.45.020).

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset wa-ghg-2030-path, analysis actual-vs-path

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Washington greenhouse gas emissions and the path to the 2030 limit

1. Washington Department of Ecology, Washington Greenhouse Gas Inventory: 1990-2022 (publication 26-14-030, April 2026) Official statewide totals, sector values, limits table, and Ecology's statements on schedule and drivers.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public government document; linked, not rehosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Ecology prepares the inventory under RCW 70A.45.020 and administers the state climate policies it measures. Most sector values come from EPA's State Inventory Tool; electricity uses Commerce fuel mix data.

2. Ecology, Inventory Results 1990-2022 workbook (supplement to publication 26-14-030) Unrounded yearly totals by sector and fuel used for every calculation.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government publication. Values copied into annual-emissions.csv and electricity-emissions-by-fuel.csv.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Same publisher and methods as the inventory report; values match the report's rounded tables.

3. RCW 70A.45.020, Greenhouse gas emissions reductions - Reporting requirements Statutory limits for 2020-2050 and the current reporting deadlines.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public law. Public law.

   Reliability: Government. Official code text published by the Washington State Legislature, as amended by 2025 c 195.

4. Senate Bill 5036, Chapter 195, Laws of 2025 (as passed) Shows the reporting language before and after the 2025 change (struck and added text).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public law. Public law.

   Reliability: Government. Enrolled session law; effective July 27, 2025.

5. Final Bill Report, SB 5036 (2025) Nonpartisan staff summary of prior and new reporting rules, including the January 2025 inventory covering data through 2021.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public legislative document. Public document.

   Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative staff; not part of the law.

6. Ecology news release, April 24, 2026: New report: Clean energy is powering reductions in Washington's carbon emissions Ecology's public account of the drivers of the 2022 drop.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government publication. Linked, not rehosted.

   Reliability: Party to the dispute. Has a stake in this finding. Press release from the agency whose report and policies are being judged.

7. Ecology, GHG Reporting Program Publication (data.wa.gov dataset idhm-59de) Reported and covered emissions of large emitters, 2012-2024, the early indicator for 2023-2024.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington open data). Yearly sums copied into large-emitter-indicator.csv.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Entities emitting 10,000 tonnes or more report to Ecology under WAC 173-441; fuel suppliers and electric power entities were added in 2022. Dataset rows were last updated April 24, 2026.

8. Ecology, Tracking greenhouse gases Ecology's statement that large emitters posted a 0.45% decrease from 2023 to 2024.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government publication. Linked.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Agency web page; checks our sum of the large-emitter data.

9. Washington Department of Commerce, CY2022 Washington State Electric Utility Fuel Mix Disclosure Report Aggregate megawatt-hours by fuel for electricity sold to Washington customers, 2000-2022 (Table 2).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government publication. Values copied into utility-fuel-mix.csv.

   Reliability: Government. Compiled by Commerce from reports by more than 60 utilities and BPA under RCW 19.29A; the inventory's electricity sector is built from it. The report header reads 2023 fuel mix disclosure report, for report year 2022.

10. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Operational Data (API v2), Washington, all sectors, annual net generation Independent federal cross-check of generation at Washington power plants by fuel.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Values copied into eia-instate-generation.csv.

    Reliability: Government. Federal statistical agency; facets location WA, sector 99 (all), fuels HYC, WND, SUN, COW, NG, ALL.

11. Todd Myers, Political spin in state's new CO2 emissions reports masks climate policy failure, Washington Policy Center, April 27, 2026 The claims checked: the gap to the 2030 path, the needed yearly cut, the drivers of the 2022 drop, and the reporting deadline.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved; quoted briefly for review. Linked and quoted, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Party to the dispute. Has a stake in this finding. Washington Policy Center is a free-market think tank that has criticized the state's climate policies and sued Ecology over the inventory's timing.

Limitations

• The statute sets only limits for 2020 and 2030; the straight line between them is one reasonable path, not a legal requirement. Other paths put 2022 between 5% and 17% above the path.
• Inventory data end in 2022; 2023 and 2024 totals are not yet published.