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How often I-638 news stories reported facts that answer each side

Share of mainstream (77) and conservative (87) news stories about Washington's I-638, Sept. 8, 2025 to Oct. 23, 2026, that included each of twelve facts. Each fact is labeled with the side whose arguments it answers.

Credit: FactHub Research Team, from dataset wa-i638-media-coding

Node: chart:wa-i638-media-key-facts:3

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Slope chart with one line per fact, from mainstream news to conservative news. Mainstream: tests instead of exam 35%, own provider 9%, performance gap 1%, can play on boys' teams 9%, other states or IOC 31%, Washington placements 10%, No-side funders 17%, Yes-side funder 40%, AAP objection 3%, few trans athletes 25%, test cost 9%, forms sent to schools lack a sex field 6%. Conservative: 9%, 10%, 5%, 3%, 23%, 22%, 7%, 2%, 0%, 2%, 1%, 0%.

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Mainstream news stories most often told readers that Brian Heywood's group funds the Yes side (40%), and rarely gave the facts that answer the No side's main arguments: any measure of the male performance gap (1%), that a girl's own provider does the check (9%), or that transgender girls can still play on boys' teams (9%). Conservative news showed the mirror image: it rarely gave the facts that answer the Yes side, never reporting the pediatricians' objection to the Yes pamphlet or that the sports-physical forms sent to schools have no sex field, and named the Yes side's funder in 2%.

What this chart asks

What share of mainstream and of conservative news stories told readers each fact that answers the No side's or the Yes side's arguments about I-638?

Why it is shown this way

  • A slope chart: one line per fact joins its share in mainstream news to its share in conservative news, so the direction of each gap is visible. Grouped bars would stack in this chart subset, and the long fact names do not fit as axis labels.
  • Each fact's label names the side whose argument it answers, so readers can see whether omissions fall on one side. Hovering a point shows its fact and value.
  • The vertical axis starts at zero so shares are comparable.

Data and accessibility

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Dataset wa-i638-media-coding, analysis fact-chart

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Washington I-638 media coverage, coded (262 stories, Sept. 2025 to Oct. 2026)

  1. Washington Secretary of State: Initiative Measure No. IL26-638, filed text Ground truth for coding facts and errors: Sec. 3(1) and 3(2) and the Sec. 1 findings

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public record (Washington State government). Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. The text as filed with the Secretary of State by the sponsor. It is the measure voters decide on; its Sec. 1 findings are the sponsor's own statements.

  2. Washington Secretary of State: 2026 General Election voters' pamphlet, IL26-638 statements Source of the campaign claim codes (each side's own pamphlet wording)

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public record (Washington State government). Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. The Secretary of State prints each campaign's argument and rebuttal as the campaign wrote it; the state does not check their accuracy.

  3. WIAA: Health and wellness forms (medical history, physical examination and medical eligibility forms) Ground truth for fact F12 and the YDOC claim code: the history form that stays with the doctor asks the family to report sex assigned at birth; the forms sent to schools have no sex field, and no form has the provider verify sex

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Publicly posted form. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Other. The recommended pre-participation forms posted by the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association, which runs high-school sports. WIAA marks the history and physical examination forms as staying with the doctor and the medical eligibility form as going to the school.

  4. The 262 coded news and opinion stories (one URL per row of the stories table) Coded material. Each row's url is its own source; this entry links one example (KUOW, June 4, 2026).

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Copyright of each outlet. Only URLs, headlines and short quotes for analysis are included; story text is not redistributed

    Reliability: News report. News and opinion outlets of every leaning, grouped before coding as mainstream, conservative or progressive/advocacy. Their own positions on I-638, where stated, are recorded in the opinion rows.

Limitations

  • Search-based sample of 77 mainstream and 87 conservative news stories, coded by one coder per group with no blind second coder.
  • Including a fact is not the same as getting the story right, and omitting one is not by itself an error.
  • Progressive/advocacy outlets (29 news stories) are in the dataset but not shown here.
  • Twelve lines share a small range; several facts overlap near zero in conservative news.

Articles and datasets using this chart

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this chart each cites.

  • Article wa-i638-media-coverage-omissions — version 6 (published) cites version 3
  • Briefing wa-i-638 — version 5 (published) cites version 3
  • Briefing wa-i-638 — version 4 (published) cites version 3