Washington budget growth above population x inflation, by area

What this chart asks

Where did Washington's general-fund spending grow beyond what population growth and inflation alone would explain?

Why it is shown this way

• Bars compare one quantity (dollars above the benchmark) across categories; a zero baseline makes the one negative area visible.
• Showing dollars above the benchmark, rather than total growth, isolates the part of the increase that population growth and inflation do not explain.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

Grew exactly with population x inflation

Threshold: 0

Bars above zero grew faster than population x US inflation from 2013-15 to 2023-25; the total above the benchmark is about $21.2 billion.

Data and accessibility

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Dataset wa-general-fund-growth, analysis excess-above-benchmark-by-area

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Washington Near General Fund budget and revenue by biennium, 2005-07 to 2025-27, with benchmarks, growth drivers, K-12 and cross-state comparisons

1. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2007: final 2005-07 NGF-S and all-funds totals (2005-07 Budget vs. 2007-09 Budget, Total State, including appropriations in other legislation; NGF-S Summary Report p. 13).

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

2. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2009: final 2007-09 and enacted 2009-11 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

3. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2011: final 2009-11 and enacted 2011-13 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

4. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2013: final 2011-13 and enacted 2013-15 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

5. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2015: final 2013-15 totals and functional areas (2013-15 Budget vs. 2015-17 Budget, Total State, p. O-23), enacted 2015-17.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

6. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2017: final 2015-17 and enacted 2017-19 totals; EHB 2242 property-tax and levy reform.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

7. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2019: final 2017-19 and enacted 2019-21 totals; creation of the Workforce Education Investment Account (E2SHB 2158).

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

8. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2021: final 2019-21 and enacted 2021-23 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

9. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2023: final 2021-23 and enacted 2023-25 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

10. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2025: final 2023-25 totals and functional areas (2023-25 Budget vs. 2025-27 Budget, Functional Area Totals, p. O-16), enacted 2025-27.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

11. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2026: 2025-27 appropriations after the 2026 supplemental ($80,203,984K NGF-O; $157,299,314K total budgeted).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

12. Washington State Office of Financial Management April 1 population estimates, Table 1 (Population Trends, October 2026 edition).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

13. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, annual averages (series CUUR0000SA0).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

14. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, all items, annual averages (series CUURS49DSA0).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

15. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis State annual personal income, SAINC1 line 1, Washington (GeoFIPS 53000), $ millions.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

16. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2014: 2014 supplemental; February 2014 revenue forecast for 2013-15 by source (property tax $3,949.1M, p. O-18).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

17. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2016: 2016 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-11).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

18. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2018: 2018 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-11); ESSB 6614 one-year state levy cut.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

19. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2020: 2020 supplemental totals (p. O-12); ESB 6690 aerospace preferential-rate repeal.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

20. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2022: 2022 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-12).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

21. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2024: 2024 supplemental totals (p. O-1); February 2024 revenue forecast for 2023-25 by source (property tax $9,330M, p. O-8).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

22. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2026. Table 3.17 (printed p. 70): GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA collections by fiscal year and biennium, cash basis, restated to the current GF-S definition.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

23. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) State and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment, chain-type price index, 2017=100, annual (BEA NIPA Table 3.9.4; FRED series B829RG3A086NBEA).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

24. National Association of State Budget Officers The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2026. Table 1, Fiscal 2025 State General Fund, Actual (expenditures by state).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

25. National Association of State Budget Officers The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2020. Table 3, Fiscal 2019 State General Fund, Actual.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

26. National Association of State Budget Officers (via IssueLab) The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2015. Table 3, Fiscal 2014 State General Fund, Actual (p. 4).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Archived copy captured September 10, 2024

27. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction School District Financial Reporting Summary 2024-25, Section One: Table Three per-pupil revenue by source (2023-24 check values) and Table Eleven local levies by calendar year.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

28. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction 10-year F-196 historical data 2024-25 (Excel): sheets "REV by Source" (General Fund revenue by source, 2014-15 to 2024-25) and "Enrollment" (annual average FTE).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

29. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction School District Financial Reporting Summary 2015-16, Section One: Table Two enrollment and Table Three per-pupil revenue by source for 2013-14.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

30. Washington State Department of Revenue Property Tax Statistics 2024: state school levy Part 1 and Part 2 amounts (PDF p. 40).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

31. Washington State Department of Revenue News release, June 5, 2025: capital gains collections for tax year 2024 ($560.6M initial) and tax year 2023 ($418.6M).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured August 7, 2026

32. Washington State Senate Republican Caucus (Sen. Chris Gildon) Primary source for statement gildon-doubled: press release "As predicted, majority’s ‘house of cards’ budget leads to deficit", June 9, 2026.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State Legislature publication. Linked; quoted for attribution.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

33. Northwest Progressive Institute (Andrew Villeneuve) Primary source for statement npi-budget-smaller: Cascadia Advocate post "Washington State’s budget has been shrinking, not growing, despite statements to the contrary by former elected officials", May 18, 2026 (updated June 4, 2026).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NPI publication; all rights reserved. Linked; short quotation for attribution.

    Archived copy captured July 8, 2026

Limitations

• The benchmark grows each area's 2013-15 appropriation by population x US CPI-U (factor 1.52). It is a yardstick, not a measure of need: K-12 enrollment grew far less than population, and long-term care and other caseloads grew faster.
• Functional areas follow agency structure, which changed in the period (child care moved from DSHS to the new DCYF, in Other Human Services; community behavioral health moved from DSHS to HCA). The dataset's program-group-excess analysis regroups programs across these moves.
• Part of the K-12 amount replaced local levy money after the 2017 McCleary levy swap; the dataset's k12-per-pupil-by-source analysis measures it.
• Appropriations, not actual expenditures.