Change in homelessness and rent by CoC, 2019 to latest full count

What this dataset measures

Large urban CoCs whose boundaries can be rebuilt from whole Census counties or places, so each homeless count can be matched to the population and rents of the same area. Built to test the common explanation that high housing costs account for Seattle/King County's homelessness.

Geography

United States, Washington, King County, WA, Seattle, WA

Unit of observation

Continuum of Care (CoC) by PIT count year

Update cadence

Annually, after HUD releases each year's PIT counts by CoC

Curator

FactHub

Curated data tables

Change in homelessness and rent by CoC, 2019 to latest full count

Baseline features, distance to King County, and changes in total and unsheltered rates and in median rent for all 67 CoCs.

Unit of observation: CoC

peers.csv text/csv · 11.5 KB (11,796 bytes)

All 67 rows 28 columns Download the file

All 67 rows

coc_code	short_name	hud_category_2025	dist_rank	distance	dist_rank_with_pop	distance_with_pop	simple_screen	n_full_2015_19 years	base_rate_per_10k per 10,000 residents	base_unsheltered_rate per 10,000 residents	base_rel_rent ratio	rent_growth_2015_19_pct percent	pop_2019 people	rent_2019 US dollars per month	rate_2019 per 10,000 residents	unsheltered_rate_2019 per 10,000 residents	end_year	end_rate per 10,000 residents	end_unsheltered_rate per 10,000 residents	chg_rate per 10,000 residents	chg_rate_pct percent	chg_unsheltered_rate per 10,000 residents	chg_unsheltered_pct percent	rent_2024 US dollars per month	rent_growth_2019_24_pct percent	rel_rent_2019 ratio	rel_rent_2024 ratio
WA-500	Seattle/King County	Major City CoC	0	0.00	0	0.00	0	5	50.97	23.10	1.381	28.2	2252782	1736	49.71	23.21	2024	72.08	41.92	22.37	45.0	18.71	80.6	2110	21.5	1.408	1.204
CA-606	Long Beach	Major City CoC	1	1.01	8	2.58	0	3	43.36	28.40	1.147	27.5	462645	1460	40.94	27.56	2024	74.87	54.44	33.93	82.9	26.88	97.5	1962	34.4	1.184	1.120
CA-502	Oakland/Alameda	Major City CoC	2	1.04	1	1.13	1	3	35.50	25.21	1.559	31.0	1671329	1982	48.00	37.77	2024	57.31	38.46	9.31	19.4	0.69	1.8	2312	16.6	1.607	1.320
OR-501	Portland/Multnomah	Major City CoC	3	1.05	4	1.85	0	3	49.74	23.20	1.065	27.1	812855	1312	49.39	25.06	2025	132.25	86.85	82.86	167.8	61.79	246.6	1656	26.2	1.064	0.945
CA-601	San Diego	Major City CoC	4	1.64	2	1.74	0	5	26.00	14.53	1.421	23.2	3338330	1758	24.27	13.41	2024	32.15	18.52	7.88	32.5	5.11	38.1	2336	32.9	1.426	1.333
CA-503	Sacramento	Major City CoC	5	1.74	3	1.83	0	3	25.83	14.95	1.084	27.6	1552058	1363	35.83	25.13	2024	41.06	24.48	5.23	14.6	-0.65	-2.6	1870	37.2	1.105	1.067
CA-600	Los Angeles (excl. Long Beach/Pasadena/Glendale)	Major City CoC	6	1.80	14	2.78	1	5	52.36	38.73	1.263	23.3	9236121	1577	60.91	45.98	2024	79.28	55.12	18.37	30.2	9.14	19.9	2003	27.0	1.279	1.143
GA-500	Atlanta	Major City CoC	7	1.81	16	2.88	0	5	75.55	16.63	1.005	28.1	506804	1257	63.48	14.19	2024	55.13	20.00	-8.35	-13.2	5.81	40.9	1765	40.4	1.019	1.007
CA-505	Contra Costa	Largely Suburban CoC	8	2.10	6	2.32	0	5	17.32	11.39	1.568	25.9	1153526	1948	19.90	14.10	2024	24.25	16.71	4.35	21.9	2.61	18.5	2340	20.1	1.580	1.336
CA-500	San Jose/Santa Clara	Major City CoC	9	2.12	5	2.14	0	3	40.89	31.11	1.946	25.5	1927852	2392	50.35	41.09	2025	55.60	38.79	5.25	10.4	-2.30	-5.6	2841	18.8	1.940	1.622
CA-511	Stockton/San Joaquin	Other Largely Urban CoC	10	2.21	12	2.74	0	3	26.24	11.81	1.035	21.6	762148	1260	34.52	20.44	2024	57.98	42.51	23.46	68.0	22.07	108.0	1788	41.9	1.022	1.021
TN-504	Nashville/Davidson	Major City CoC	11	2.24	15	2.85	0	5	32.38	8.66	0.946	29.0	694144	1192	28.61	8.43	2024	28.70	9.94	0.09	0.3	1.51	17.9	1665	39.7	0.967	0.950
NV-500	Las Vegas/Clark	Major City CoC	12	2.34	7	2.34	0	5	29.08	17.52	0.972	17.9	2266715	1187	24.40	14.63	2024	32.96	17.52	8.56	35.1	2.89	19.8	1739	46.5	0.963	0.993
FL-502	Pinellas	Other Largely Urban CoC	13	2.37	10	2.68	0	5	29.06	10.90	0.951	21.4	974996	1182	24.77	8.55	2024	21.85	7.46	-2.92	-11.8	-1.09	-12.7	1752	48.2	0.959	1.000
CA-611	Ventura	Other Largely Urban CoC	14	2.54	19	2.93	0	5	16.04	10.56	1.530	18.9	846006	1859	19.73	14.87	2024	28.23	17.13	8.50	43.1	2.26	15.2	2313	24.4	1.508	1.320
WA-503	Tacoma/Pierce	Largely Suburban CoC	15	2.55	17	2.89	0	5	17.08	6.18	1.080	28.2	904980	1362	16.42	6.95	2024	28.27	12.92	11.85	72.2	5.97	85.9	1891	38.8	1.105	1.079
CA-602	Orange County CA	Largely Suburban CoC	16	2.64	11	2.69	0	3	16.89	9.17	1.598	18.8	3175692	1929	21.60	12.47	2024	23.09	13.16	1.49	6.9	0.69	5.5	2483	28.7	1.564	1.417
CA-608	Riverside	Largely Suburban CoC	17	2.65	9	2.66	0	5	9.98	6.78	1.189	25.3	2470546	1497	11.38	8.28	2025	15.77	7.82	4.39	38.6	-0.46	-5.6	2053	37.1	1.214	1.172
CO-503	Metro Denver	Major City CoC	18	2.72	13	2.77	0	5	17.52	2.97	1.204	24.2	3231918	1485	17.81	2.93	2024	43.01	8.79	25.20	141.5	5.86	200.0	1947	31.1	1.204	1.111
FL-605	West Palm Beach/Palm Beach	Largely Suburban CoC	19	2.86	18	2.93	0	4	9.76	6.29	1.209	20.7	1496770	1498	9.33	6.28	2024	13.44	9.99	4.11	44.1	3.71	59.1	2121	41.6	1.215	1.211
CA-512	San Mateo	Largely Suburban CoC	20	2.88	30	3.30	0	3	18.45	10.05	1.992	31.1	766573	2497	19.72	11.75	2024	28.67	15.41	8.95	45.4	3.66	31.1	2832	13.4	2.025	1.616
TX-503	Austin/Travis	Major City CoC	21	2.91	21	3.03	0	5	16.98	7.18	1.118	17.3	1273954	1346	17.70	8.52	2025	23.76	11.56	6.06	34.2	3.04	35.7	1789	32.9	1.092	1.021
FL-600	Miami-Dade	Major City CoC	22	2.93	20	2.95	0	5	14.01	3.69	1.146	21.2	2716940	1408	12.78	3.71	2024	13.39	3.64	0.61	4.8	-0.07	-1.9	2050	45.6	1.142	1.170
HI-501	Honolulu	Largely Suburban CoC	23	2.96	24	3.22	1	5	48.04	22.27	1.518	8.3	974563	1774	45.32	24.66	2024	45.03	27.69	-0.29	-0.6	3.03	12.3	2001	12.8	1.439	1.142
MA-500	Boston	Major City CoC	24	3.00	36	3.48	0	5	91.67	2.27	1.401	21.9	694295	1735	89.90	1.74	2024	87.53	1.99	-2.37	-2.6	0.25	14.4	2196	26.6	1.407	1.253
AZ-502	Phoenix/Maricopa	Major City CoC	25	3.06	25	3.23	0	5	13.80	4.96	0.972	21.0	4485414	1193	14.75	7.11	2024	20.19	8.72	5.44	36.9	1.61	22.6	1820	52.6	0.968	1.039
CA-609	San Bernardino	Largely Suburban CoC	26	3.11	22	3.11	0	5	9.86	6.53	1.107	17.8	2180085	1342	11.96	8.81	2024	19.22	13.80	7.26	60.7	4.99	56.6	1957	45.8	1.088	1.117
FL-501	Tampa/Hillsborough	Major City CoC	27	3.15	23	3.22	0	5	12.44	4.85	0.986	19.8	1471968	1186	11.21	4.57	2024	11.97	6.46	0.76	6.8	1.89	41.4	1807	52.4	0.962	1.031
TX-600	Dallas/Collin	Major City CoC	28	3.16	26	3.24	0	5	10.83	2.76	0.993	23.3	3670246	1237	12.36	3.96	2024	9.51	2.78	-2.85	-23.1	-1.18	-29.8	1736	40.3	1.003	0.991
UT-500	Salt Lake	Largely Suburban CoC	29	3.17	31	3.32	0	5	17.21	1.12	0.963	22.9	1160437	1185	15.89	1.66	2024	19.77	3.40	3.88	24.4	1.74	104.8	1666	40.6	0.961	0.951
CA-514	Fresno/Madera	Major City CoC	30	3.20	33	3.35	0	5	17.95	13.78	0.863	14.5	1156428	1033	21.69	17.89	2025	41.23	25.57	19.54	90.1	7.68	42.9	1515	46.7	0.838	0.865
MN-500	Minneapolis/Hennepin	Major City CoC	31	3.24	32	3.35	0	5	25.26	2.55	0.973	16.8	1265843	1173	26.86	4.76	2024	30.36	3.90	3.50	13.0	-0.86	-18.1	1512	28.9	0.951	0.863
NJ-504	Newark/Essex	Largely Suburban CoC	32	3.24	39	3.59	0	5	24.74	4.41	1.026	14.7	798975	1233	27.97	4.23	2024	27.80	3.22	-0.17	-0.6	-1.01	-23.9	1616	31.1	1.000	0.922
NC-505	Charlotte/Mecklenburg	Major City CoC	33	3.24	35	3.41	0	5	16.25	1.84	0.984	20.1	1110356	1191	15.69	1.77	2024	17.37	3.18	1.68	10.7	1.41	79.7	1730	45.3	0.966	0.987
FL-601	Fort Lauderdale/Broward	Largely Suburban CoC	34	3.25	28	3.26	0	5	12.95	4.94	1.199	15.3	1952778	1448	14.35	6.91	2025	10.74	6.49	-3.61	-25.2	-0.42	-6.1	2106	45.4	1.174	1.202
FL-507	Orlando/Orange/Osceola/Seminole	Largely Suburban CoC	35	3.25	27	3.25	0	5	9.20	1.35	1.059	22.6	2241029	1320	8.97	1.50	2024	11.12	4.38	2.15	24.0	2.88	192.0	1883	42.7	1.071	1.075
IL-510	Chicago	Major City CoC	36	3.29	29	3.30	0	5	21.46	5.52	0.952	15.1	2693959	1134	19.64	4.68	2024	69.22	6.00	49.58	252.4	1.32	28.2	1486	31.0	0.920	0.848
PA-500	Philadelphia	Major City CoC	37	3.31	34	3.35	0	5	37.20	5.56	0.897	13.3	1584064	1079	36.20	6.14	2024	32.98	6.20	-3.22	-8.9	0.06	1.0	1500	39.0	0.875	0.856
MD-501	Baltimore City	Major City CoC	38	3.39	43	3.93	0	3	42.42	6.92	0.925	11.1	593490	1090	38.65	6.40	2025	35.62	3.31	-3.03	-7.8	-3.09	-48.3	1345	23.4	0.884	0.768
NC-507	Raleigh/Wake	Major City CoC	39	3.42	38	3.58	0	5	8.52	1.68	0.988	20.4	1111761	1198	8.72	2.12	2024	8.05	1.14	-0.67	-7.7	-0.98	-46.2	1711	42.8	0.972	0.977
TX-601	Fort Worth/Tarrant/Parker	Major City CoC	40	3.55	37	3.55	0	5	9.01	2.06	0.938	18.5	2245393	1144	9.03	2.49	2024	10.22	4.01	1.19	13.2	1.52	61.0	1667	45.7	0.928	0.951
NY-600	New York City	Major City CoC	41	3.56	48	4.07	0	5	90.18	4.07	1.294	12.3	8336817	1535	94.29	4.34	2024	165.29	5.19	71.00	75.3	0.85	19.6	1877	22.3	1.245	1.071
FL-510	Jacksonville/Duval/Clay	Major City CoC	42	3.63	41	3.76	0	5	15.91	3.89	0.925	13.9	1177007	1111	14.05	4.32	2024	10.36	4.33	-3.69	-26.3	0.01	0.2	1584	42.6	0.901	0.904
TX-500	San Antonio/Bexar	Major City CoC	43	3.64	40	3.65	0	5	14.69	6.07	0.869	13.7	2003554	1046	14.33	5.92	2024	15.97	4.30	1.64	11.4	-1.62	-27.4	1409	34.7	0.848	0.804
MI-501	Detroit	Major City CoC	44	3.65	49	4.08	0	5	31.91	2.40	0.716	15.9	670052	866	29.33	1.28	2024	26.72	4.72	-2.61	-8.9	3.44	268.7	1091	26.0	0.702	0.623
NM-500	Albuquerque	Major City CoC	45	3.69	51	4.24	0	3	24.60	6.75	0.756	12.8	560504	905	27.19	10.12	2024	48.90	21.97	21.71	79.8	11.85	117.1	1227	35.6	0.734	0.700
DC-500	District of Columbia	Major City CoC	46	3.70	50	4.09	0	5	105.90	8.57	1.327	13.1	705749	1603	92.40	8.61	2024	79.97	12.82	-12.43	-13.5	4.21	48.9	1931	20.5	1.300	1.102
TX-700	Houston/Harris/Fort Bend/Montgomery	Major City CoC	47	3.71	44	4.00	0	5	6.81	2.51	0.947	16.3	6132404	1149	6.42	2.63	2024	4.88	1.65	-1.54	-24.0	-0.98	-37.3	1485	29.2	0.932	0.848
CA-501	San Francisco	Major City CoC	48	3.78	45	4.04	0	3	82.35	52.79	1.631	18.1	881549	1959	91.15	58.76	2024	100.58	52.61	9.43	10.3	-6.15	-10.5	2448	25.0	1.589	1.397
MO-604	Kansas City/Jackson/Wyandotte	Major City CoC	49	3.80	47	4.06	0	5	20.51	2.93	0.783	14.2	868440	934	22.79	3.68	2024	24.32	9.77	1.53	6.7	6.09	165.5	1246	33.4	0.758	0.711
NY-603	Nassau/Suffolk	Largely Suburban CoC	50	3.85	42	3.86	0	5	13.66	0.27	1.524	11.4	2833525	1793	13.56	0.16	2024	13.67	0.71	0.11	0.8	0.55	343.8	2255	25.8	1.454	1.287
OH-503	Columbus/Franklin	Major City CoC	51	3.97	46	4.05	0	5	13.75	2.40	0.836	12.9	1316756	997	14.48	2.90	2024	17.55	3.79	3.07	21.2	0.89	30.7	1386	39.0	0.809	0.791
KY-501	Louisville/Jefferson	Major City CoC	52	4.04	53	4.35	0	5	13.84	1.60	0.754	14.3	766757	905	13.97	1.54	2024	21.77	7.49	7.80	55.8	5.95	386.4	1173	29.6	0.734	0.670
IN-503	Indianapolis/Marion	Major City CoC	53	4.11	52	4.30	0	5	17.52	1.28	0.766	12.5	964582	901	16.25	1.09	2024	17.33	3.45	1.08	6.6	2.36	216.5	1215	34.9	0.731	0.693
TN-501	Memphis/Shelby	Major City CoC	54	4.19	55	4.39	0	5	15.32	0.93	0.809	11.4	937166	960	14.14	0.62	2024	8.61	1.74	-5.53	-39.1	1.12	180.6	1325	38.0	0.779	0.756
AZ-501	Tucson/Pima	Major City CoC	55	4.23	54	4.38	0	5	15.52	3.61	0.780	9.8	1047279	905	13.10	3.45	2024	19.83	11.86	6.73	51.4	8.41	243.8	1300	43.6	0.734	0.742
OH-500	Cincinnati/Hamilton	Largely Suburban CoC	56	4.25	59	4.52	0	5	13.62	0.65	0.699	13.4	817473	831	13.24	0.38	2024	12.31	0.84	-0.93	-7.0	0.46	121.1	1196	43.9	0.674	0.683
MD-601	Montgomery County MD	Largely Suburban CoC	57	4.26	56	4.41	0	5	8.51	1.02	1.534	8.0	1050688	1788	6.16	0.71	2024	10.57	1.41	4.41	71.6	0.70	98.6	2097	17.3	1.450	1.197
MO-501	St. Louis City	Other Largely Urban CoC	58	4.26	66	5.22	0	5	38.11	3.25	0.714	8.0	300576	828	34.30	1.76	2024	44.16	5.51	9.86	28.7	3.75	213.1	1044	26.1	0.672	0.596
PA-600	Pittsburgh/Allegheny	Largely Suburban CoC	59	4.33	57	4.43	0	5	8.63	0.40	0.767	12.5	1216045	911	6.36	0.39	2024	9.45	1.37	3.09	48.6	0.98	251.3	1191	30.7	0.739	0.680
VA-601	Fairfax County	Largely Suburban CoC	60	4.34	58	4.45	0	5	9.16	0.74	1.631	7.7	1147532	1900	9.01	0.78	2024	11.01	0.74	2.00	22.2	-0.04	-5.1	2341	23.2	1.541	1.336
LA-503	New Orleans/Jefferson Parish	Other Largely Urban CoC	61	4.35	61	4.60	0	5	16.92	7.39	0.853	5.9	822637	976	14.33	5.23	2024	18.41	6.13	4.08	28.5	0.90	17.2	1260	29.1	0.792	0.719
OK-502	Oklahoma City	Major City CoC	62	4.38	63	4.75	0	5	20.63	4.81	0.753	7.4	655158	874	19.43	5.86	2024	25.78	6.07	6.35	32.7	0.21	3.6	1178	34.8	0.709	0.672
MD-600	Prince George's	Largely Suburban CoC	63	4.44	62	4.65	0	5	5.76	1.10	1.276	6.6	909327	1469	4.92	0.80	2024	6.72	1.12	1.80	36.6	0.32	40.0	1791	21.9	1.191	1.022
OH-502	Cleveland/Cuyahoga	Largely Suburban CoC	64	4.49	60	4.58	0	5	14.10	0.68	0.698	10.3	1235072	811	13.10	0.86	2024	13.20	0.93	0.10	0.8	0.07	8.1	1102	35.9	0.658	0.629
WI-501	Milwaukee	Major City CoC	65	4.62	64	4.80	0	5	11.75	1.58	0.762	7.8	945726	887	9.36	1.21	2024	9.57	0.66	0.21	2.2	-0.55	-45.5	1139	28.4	0.719	0.650
CA-604	Bakersfield/Kern	Major City CoC	66	4.66	65	4.86	0	5	11.32	5.29	0.844	4.7	900202	949	14.77	8.94	2024	28.93	18.03	14.16	95.9	9.09	101.7	1479	55.8	0.770	0.844

28 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
coc_code	string	HUD CoC code	—	observed
short_name	string	Short display name	—	derived
hud_category_2025	string	HUD 2025 CoC category	—	observed
dist_rank	integer	Rank by distance to King County on 4 standardized 2015-19 features (0 = King)	—	derived
distance	number	Euclidean distance on z-scored features: mean total rate, mean unsheltered rate, relative rent, rent growth 2015-19	—	derived
dist_rank_with_pop	integer	Rank when log 2019 population is added as a fifth feature	—	derived
distance_with_pop	number	Distance with population added	—	derived
simple_screen	integer	1 if 2019 rent within ±15% of King's and 2019 rate within ±40% of King's	—	derived
n_full_2015_19	integer	Full-count years in 2015-19 used for the baseline	years	derived
base_rate_per_10k	number	Mean total rate over full-count years 2015-19	per 10,000 residents	derived
base_unsheltered_rate	number	Mean unsheltered rate over full-count years 2015-19	per 10,000 residents	derived
base_rel_rent	number	Median rent divided by the sample median, averaged 2015-19	ratio	derived
rent_growth_2015_19_pct	number	Nominal median rent growth 2015 to 2019	percent	derived
pop_2019	integer	2019 population	people	observed
rent_2019	number	2019 median gross rent	US dollars per month	observed
rate_2019	number	2019 total rate	per 10,000 residents	derived
unsheltered_rate_2019	number	2019 unsheltered rate	per 10,000 residents	derived
end_year	integer	Latest full count: 2024, or 2025 where 2024 was sheltered-only	—	derived
end_rate	number	Total rate in end_year	per 10,000 residents	derived
end_unsheltered_rate	number	Unsheltered rate in end_year	per 10,000 residents	derived
chg_rate	number	end_rate minus rate_2019	per 10,000 residents	derived
chg_rate_pct	number	Percent change in total rate	percent	derived
chg_unsheltered_rate	number	end_unsheltered_rate minus unsheltered_rate_2019	per 10,000 residents	derived
chg_unsheltered_pct	number	Percent change in unsheltered rate	percent	derived
rent_2024	number	2024 median gross rent	US dollars per month	observed
rent_growth_2019_24_pct	number	Nominal median rent growth 2019 to 2024	percent	derived
rel_rent_2019	number	2019 rent divided by the sample median	ratio	derived
rel_rent_2024	number	2024 rent divided by the sample median	ratio	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• build_and_analyze.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 11.8 KB (12,057 bytes)

  Node.js script that builds coc-panel from the HUD PIT sheets and ACS JSON and fits the per-year regressions.

• xlsb_to_csv.ps1 Transformation manifest · text/x-powershell · 977 bytes

  PowerShell script that exports each sheet of the HUD .xlsb workbook to CSV through Excel with macros disabled.

• build_rate_rent.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8.2 KB (8,372 bytes)

  Node.js script that computes king-residuals and the saved analyses (leave-one-out fits, prediction intervals, rent-growth correlations).

• peers.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 10.2 KB (10,432 bytes)

  Node.js script that builds peer-changes (z-scored distances, 2019-to-latest changes, rent growth).

• findings.md Documentation · text/markdown · 14 KB (14,292 bytes)

  Method notes, results tables and caveats for the panel and regressions.

• findings-peers.md Documentation · text/markdown · 16.5 KB (16,944 bytes)

  Method notes, results and caveats for the peer comparison, including peers' count-method changes.

Sources

1. HUD, 2007-2025 Point-in-Time Counts by CoC (AHAR Part 1 data) Homeless counts (total, sheltered, unsheltered) and count type for each CoC and year. Downloaded from the Internet Archive snapshot because huduser.gov blocks scripted requests; contentDigest is the SHA-256 of that downloaded workbook (8,859,426 bytes).

   Retrieved October 10, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain; not rehosted here. Retrieve from HUD or the archived copy.

   Archived copy captured May 30, 2026

2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates, tables B01003, B25064, B25004, B25003 (2015-2019, 2021-2024) Population, median gross rent and rental vacancy for the counties and places that make up each CoC.

   Retrieved October 10, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain; values used are in coc-panel.

   Archived copy captured May 21, 2026

3. KCRHA, 2024 Point-in-Time Count FAQ v2 Documents King County's respondent-driven sampling (RDS) method from 2022 and the 2024 revision to 16,868.

   Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public agency document. Linked, not rehosted.

   Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

4. Almquist ZW et al., "Innovating a community-driven enumeration and needs assessment of people experiencing homelessness," American Journal of Epidemiology 194(6), 2024 Only quantitative comparison of King County's 2022 RDS estimate with a forecast of the old visual-count method; basis for the method-adjustment sensitivity range.

   Retrieved October 10, 2026. Open-access journal article. Linked, not rehosted.

   Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Download the HUD workbook and ACS tables listed in sources, export the workbook sheets with xlsb-export-script, then run build-panel-script, peers-script and residuals-script (Node.js). Outputs match the tables here.

• PIT counts are single January nights; methods vary by CoC and change over time.
• King County changed its unsheltered count method in 2022 (respondent-driven sampling). The estimated effect ranges from 0 to about 3,600 people in 2024.
• Rates per 10,000 are FactHub calculations. HUD does not publish CoC-level rates.
• CoC boundaries are rebuilt from whole Census geographies with small gaps (see coc-geography).
• Multi-county median rent is a renter-weighted average of county medians, not a true median.
• Rent alone explains 2-14% of the variation in total rates across all 67 CoCs (24-45% among Major City CoCs).
• All results are associations, not causal estimates.