What this dataset measures
The published source dataset preserves the curated tables and provenance. This derived publication adds immutable, chart-ready structured results so articles and reusable charts can cite exact calculations without treating descriptive timing as causal evidence.
- Geography
- Washington State, United States
- Unit of observation
- One calendar month for the principal Washington and United States series; one calendar year or one legal-policy period in derived tables.
- Update cadence
- Immutable research release; refreshes require a new version because FBI historical values may be revised.
- Curator
- FactHub Research Team
Curated data tables
These related tables form this versioned dataset release. Each
table has its own downloadable file and field definitions.
Monthly Washington and United States Motor-Vehicle-Theft Series
Principal analysis-ready table containing 96 consecutive monthly observations from the FBI Crime Data Explorer response.
Unit of observation: One calendar month.
View this table
13 field definitions
| Field | Type | Meaning | Units | Value type |
|---|
month |
date |
First day of the represented calendar month in ISO 8601 format. |
— |
observed |
wa_reported_offenses |
integer |
FBI CDE value labeled Washington Offenses for motor-vehicle theft. |
reported offenses |
observed |
wa_offense_rate_per_100k |
decimal |
FBI-published Washington motor-vehicle-theft offense rate. |
reported offenses per 100,000 people |
observed |
wa_clearances |
integer |
FBI CDE value labeled Washington Clearances; not synonymous with arrests or cohort resolution. |
clearances |
observed |
wa_clearance_rate_per_100k |
decimal |
FBI-published Washington clearance rate. |
clearances per 100,000 people |
observed |
wa_population |
integer |
Washington population value returned by the FBI endpoint. |
people |
observed |
wa_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
FBI estimate of the percentage of Washington's population represented by reporting agencies. |
percent |
estimated |
us_reported_offenses |
integer |
United States reported-offense value returned by the FBI endpoint. The retained response contains zero in this field, so it must not be used as a national count. |
reported offenses |
observed |
us_offense_rate_per_100k |
decimal |
FBI-published United States motor-vehicle-theft offense rate used as the national descriptive benchmark. |
reported offenses per 100,000 people |
observed |
us_clearances |
integer |
United States clearance value returned by the endpoint; the retained response contains zero and it must not be treated as a national clearance count. |
clearances |
observed |
us_clearance_rate_per_100k |
decimal |
FBI-published United States clearance rate. |
clearances per 100,000 people |
observed |
us_population |
integer |
United States population value returned by the FBI endpoint. |
people |
observed |
us_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
FBI estimate of the percentage of the U.S. population represented by reporting agencies. |
percent |
estimated |
Annual Washington Motor-Vehicle-Theft Summary
Yearly sums, changes, clearances, and reporting-coverage ranges derived from the monthly table.
Unit of observation: One calendar year.
View this table
10 field definitions
| Field | Type | Meaning | Units | Value type |
|---|
year |
integer |
Calendar year. |
year |
derived |
months |
integer |
Number of monthly observations included in the annual row. |
months |
derived |
wa_reported_offenses |
integer |
Annual sum of Washington reported motor-vehicle-theft offenses. |
reported offenses |
derived |
wa_year_over_year_change_pct |
decimal |
Percentage change in annual Washington reported offenses from the previous year. |
percent |
derived |
wa_clearances |
integer |
Annual sum of Washington clearances. |
clearances |
derived |
wa_min_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
Minimum Washington population coverage during the calendar year. |
percent |
derived |
wa_max_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
Maximum Washington population coverage during the calendar year. |
percent |
derived |
us_reported_offenses |
integer |
Annual sum of the endpoint's United States offense-count field; all values are zero in this retained response and must not be interpreted as national totals. |
reported offenses |
derived |
us_min_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
Minimum U.S. population coverage during the calendar year. |
percent |
derived |
us_max_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
Maximum U.S. population coverage during the calendar year. |
percent |
derived |
Washington Pursuit-Law Periods
Exact legal effective dates, descriptions, official source URLs, and transition-month cautions used to define descriptive periods.
Unit of observation: One pursuit-law period.
View this table
7 field definitions
| Field | Type | Meaning | Units | Value type |
|---|
effective_date |
date |
First date on which the legal period applies. |
— |
observed |
end_date |
date |
Last date assigned to the legal period within this release. |
— |
derived |
policy_id |
string |
Stable machine-readable identifier for the policy period. |
— |
derived |
legal_instrument |
string |
Name and session-law citation of the legal instrument, or baseline label. |
— |
observed |
description |
string |
Neutral description of the governing pursuit standard. |
— |
derived |
analysis_note |
string |
Caution relevant to temporal analysis, including transition-month treatment. |
— |
derived |
source_url |
uri |
Official legal source URL for the period. |
— |
observed |
Descriptive Statistics by Washington Pursuit-Law Period
Unadjusted averages for complete calendar months assigned to each legal period, with transition months excluded.
Unit of observation: One pursuit-law analysis period.
View this table
10 field definitions
| Field | Type | Meaning | Units | Value type |
|---|
period |
string |
Stable identifier for the legal-analysis period. |
— |
derived |
start_month |
date |
First complete calendar month included in the period. |
— |
derived |
end_month |
date |
Last complete calendar month included in the period. |
— |
derived |
months |
integer |
Number of complete monthly observations included. |
months |
derived |
mean_monthly_wa_offenses |
decimal |
Arithmetic mean of monthly Washington reported offenses. |
reported offenses per month |
derived |
mean_wa_rate_per_100k |
decimal |
Arithmetic mean of the FBI-published monthly Washington offense rate. |
reported offenses per 100,000 people per month |
derived |
mean_us_rate_per_100k |
decimal |
Arithmetic mean of the FBI-published monthly U.S. offense rate. |
reported offenses per 100,000 people per month |
derived |
mean_wa_to_us_rate_ratio |
decimal |
Mean of the monthly ratio between Washington and U.S. offense rates. |
ratio |
derived |
minimum_wa_population_coverage_pct |
decimal |
Lowest Washington population-coverage estimate among included months. |
percent |
derived |
causal_interpretation_permitted |
boolean |
Explicit safeguard indicating whether the descriptive row may be presented as a causal estimate; always false. |
— |
derived |
Supporting files
Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation,
and other materials used to produce or review this release.
-
fbi-cde-wa-mvt-2018-2025.json
Source · application/json · 19.2 KB (19,634 bytes)
Immutable FBI Crime Data Explorer API response retained as the source snapshot for this release.
-
README.md
Documentation · text/markdown · 8.4 KB (8,633 bytes)
Dataset purpose, source selection, article use, file guide, build instructions, and acquisition priorities.
-
quality-report.md
Quality report · text/markdown · 5.1 KB (5,177 bytes)
Definitions, automated checks, reporting coverage, conflicting official values, limitations, and publication cautions.
-
source-audit.md
Documentation · text/markdown · 7.9 KB (8,085 bytes)
Audit of official public sources, their suitability, discrepancies, and the source hierarchy used for this release.
-
release-manifest.json
Source manifest · application/json · 3 KB (3,046 bytes)
Release metadata and SHA-256 digests for the original research artifacts.
-
build.ps1
Transformation manifest · text/x-powershell · 9.8 KB (10,008 bytes)
Executable acquisition, transformation, validation, summary, and digest-generation recipe.
Saved analyses
Monthly Washington and U.S. motor-vehicle-theft rates
Question: How did Washington monthly reported motor-vehicle-theft rates compare with U.S. rates from 2018 through 2025?
Result: A 96-row monthly series with Washington and U.S. rates, Washington reporting coverage, and legal-period labels.
Operation: select-and-label-monthly-rate-series
Scope: All 96 monthly observations from January 2018 through December 2025.
View this analysis
- Temporal alignment cannot identify causation.
- Washington reporting coverage declines during the second half of 2025.
- National and state reporting participation and vehicle fleets differ.
Annual Washington reported motor-vehicle-theft offenses
Question: How many Washington motor-vehicle-theft offenses and clearances were reported annually from 2018 through 2025?
Result: Eight annual rows with offenses, year-over-year changes, clearances, and reporting-coverage ranges.
Operation: group-monthly-observations-by-calendar-year
Scope: Eight complete calendar years, 2018 through 2025.
View this analysis
- Reported offenses are not unique vehicles or victims.
- The 2025 total includes six lower-coverage months.
Descriptive statistics by Washington pursuit-law period
Question: What were the unadjusted theft levels and Washington-to-U.S. rate ratios in each pursuit-law period?
Result: Four rows of unadjusted averages with transition months excluded and causal interpretation prohibited.
Operation: average-full-month-observations-by-legal-period
Scope: Full calendar months in four legal periods from January 2018 through December 2025.
View this analysis
- Periods differ in duration and coincide with major confounders.
- Differences are not estimates of offenses caused or prevented by law.
Washington reporting-coverage sensitivity summary
Question: Which months fall below 98 percent Washington population coverage?
Result: One summary showing six below-threshold months, all in the second half of 2025.
Operation: filter-months-by-population-coverage-threshold
Scope: All 96 monthly observations, with a focused 2025 summary.
View this analysis
- Excluding six months leaves no comparable full-year 2025 total.
- Coverage is not a direct estimate of missing offenses.
Derived from
This dataset uses data from these FactHub dataset versions.
Sources
-
Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Data Explorer
Principal source for monthly Washington and United States offenses, clearances, rates, population, and population-coverage values.
Retrieved October 7, 2026. U.S. federal government data. Retained source response is redistributed for reproducibility with attribution to the FBI Crime Data Explorer.
-
Washington State Legislature
Official source for HB 1054 and its 2021 pursuit-law effective date.
Retrieved October 7, 2026. Washington State public record. Linked as an official public record; source document bytes are not redistributed in this release.
-
Washington State Legislature
Official session law for SB 5352 and its immediate May 3, 2023 effective date.
Retrieved October 7, 2026. Washington State public record. Linked as an official public record; source document bytes are not redistributed in this release.
-
Washington State Legislature
Official session law for Initiative 2113 and its June 6, 2024 effective date.
Retrieved October 7, 2026. Washington State public record. Linked as an official public record; source document bytes are not redistributed in this release.
Limitations and reproducibility
Fully reproducible from the retained FBI API response with Windows PowerShell 5.1 or newer and no additional packages.: The public release includes the immutable source response, transformation and validation script, generated tables, release manifest with SHA-256 digests, source audit, quality report, and build instructions. Running scripts/build.ps1 without -Refresh rebuilds from the retained response; -Refresh intentionally acquires potentially revised source values and therefore requires a new release.
- The principal series is a statewide aggregate and cannot identify which agencies or counties drove a change.
- Reported offenses are not necessarily unique stolen vehicles, victims, suspects, arrests, recoveries, or pursuits.
- The release contains no vehicle make or model and cannot directly measure the Kia and Hyundai theft wave.
- The release does not measure attempted theft, failures to yield, or incidents in which officers did not initiate a pursuit.
- The release does not contain police staffing, deployment, prosecution, detention, or task-force activity.
- FBI source values can be revised after this immutable release.
- Washington population coverage declines to approximately 95.7%–96.1% in the second half of 2025.
- The United States series is a descriptive benchmark, not a causal counterfactual for Washington.
- All three pursuit-law changes occurred during a month; the descriptive period table excludes those transition months.
- FBI offense totals do not reconcile with separately published WACIC and WATPA stolen-vehicle figures; the measures must not be treated as interchangeable.
- Policy-period averages are unadjusted, highly confounded descriptions and must not be described as causal effects.
monthly.csv
text/csv · 9.9 KB (10,117 bytes)