Five-second answer

Claim we investigated

Washington has one of the nation's most upside-down tax systems, where working and middle class families pay a far higher tax rate than the wealthiest.

Mostly true. By ITEP's estimate, middle-income families pay 10.9% of income in state and local taxes; the top 1% pay 4.1%. ITEP's 50-state model ranks Washington's state and local taxes second most regressive, the Department of Revenue's own state-tax estimates slope the same way, and critics including the Washington Research Council concede the system is regressive while disputing how much.

Quote or cite this fact-check

FactHub rates the claim “Washington has one of the nation's most upside-down tax systems, where working and middle class families pay a far higher tax rate than the wealthiest” Mostly true (moderate confidence): By ITEP's estimate, middle-income families pay 10.9% of income in state and local taxes; the top 1% pay 4.1%. Reviewed October 21, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/i645-upside-down-tax-system/4

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. ITEP estimates Washington's second and middle income fifths pay 10.9% of income in state and local taxes, and the top 1% pay 4.1%.
  • Established. ITEP ranks Washington's system the second most regressive in the country, after Florida.
  • Established. The Department of Revenue's own state-tax model slopes the same way: about 8% for $17,000–$30,000 households, about 2% above $208,000.
  • Context. Critics dispute ITEP's assumptions but agree Washington's state and local taxes are regressive; with federal taxes included, the total is progressive.
  • Context. In dollars the top 1% pay about 33 times more than the bottom fifth (our calculation from ITEP's figures).
  • Context. The 2026 law's relief accounts for all of its rate cut for lower- and middle-income groups. It stays if voters repeal the tax through I-645, but the law voids it if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202). I-645 would undo the higher rate on the top 1%.
Important context: This is the first factual claim in the No side's statement in the 2026 voters' pamphlet for Initiative 645. 'Upside-down' means regressive: lower-income households pay a larger share of their income in state and local taxes than higher-income households. The figures measure tax rates as a share of income, not dollars paid, cover state and local taxes only (not federal), and exclude seniors. The best-known estimates come from ITEP, a group that advocates more progressive taxes.

Washington has one of the nation’s most upside-down tax systems, where working and middle class families pay a far higher tax rate than the wealthiest.

Committee for the argument against Initiative 645 (WEA President Janie White and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument against I-645 2026 Washington voters' pamphlet, Initiative Measure IP26-645, p. 14, argument against: "Opening paragraph" · · Assertion

Context: Part of the official argument against Initiative 645 printed on page 14 of the 2026 Washington state voters' pamphlet, under the heading shown in this statement's table row. The statement was written by the committee appointed to write the argument against the measure.

Source: Washington Secretary of State, 2026 voters' pamphlet · View in the dataset

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 6 methods across 9 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
Reading the official voters' pamphlet text Washington Secretary of State United States 2026 The No side's statement opens with the sentence rated here and continues that I-645 would make that worse. The statement is written by the No committee and cites no source; this article assumes it refers to tax rates as a share of income, which its wording says. Washington Secretary of State
Microsimulation of state and local tax incidence by income group Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy United States 2023, 2024 For 2024 law at 2023 incomes, ITEP estimates total state and local taxes of 13.8% of income for the lowest fifth (average income $18,600), 10.9% for the second and middle fifths, 9.4% for the fourth, 8.0% for the next 15%, 5.4% for the next 4% and 4.1% for the top 1% (average income $2,077,500). Its inequality index ranks Washington second most regressive. The capital gains tax and Working Families Tax Credit, both included, moved Washington from most to second most regressive. ITEP advocates more progressive taxes. Its results depend on assumptions about who ultimately pays sales, business and property taxes, it uses one year's income, and it excludes seniors and federal taxes. The 7th edition reflects 2024 law, before the 2025 tax package. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy
State household tax burden model Washington State Department of Revenue United States 2017, 2018, 2019 The Tax Structure Work Group report, prepared with the Department of Revenue, estimates state taxes take about 8% of income for households earning $17,000 to $30,000 and about 2% for households above $208,000. It is an independent government estimate that shows the same direction as ITEP. State taxes only, for the 2017–19 biennium, before the capital gains tax and the tax credit; it does not separate the top 1%. Local taxes, which it says can roughly double burdens, are excluded. Washington State Tax Structure Work Group / Department of Revenue
Published methodological critiques Tax Foundation, Washington Research Council, Washington Policy Center United States 2021, 2023, 2026 The Tax Foundation argues ITEP wrongly treats the B&O tax like a sales tax and uses one-year rather than lifetime income, both of which overstate regressivity. The Washington Research Council agrees Washington's system is regressive but says ITEP overstates the burden on low-income households and that, with the progressive federal income tax, total tax burdens are progressive in every state. The Washington Policy Center does not dispute ITEP's distribution but says it does not measure total burden or whether a tax system works. These groups generally favor lower taxes; none publishes a rival 50-state ranking of Washington with different numbers. Tax Foundation Washington Research Council Washington Policy Center
Our calculation from ITEP's published averages and rates FactHub (our calculation) United States 2023 Multiplying ITEP's average income by its tax rate gives about $85,200 a year for a top-1% household ($2,077,500 × 4.1%) and about $2,570 for a bottom-fifth household ($18,600 × 13.8%), so the top 1% pay about 33 times as many dollars. The claim is about rates, which is accurate, but the comparison in dollars runs the other way. Rates are rounded to a tenth of a point, so the dollar figures are approximate; they are averages for each group. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy
Comparison of ITEP's 2026 update with the Attorney General's statement and a fiscal analysis Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, Washington Attorney General, Washington Research Council, Washington State Legislature United States 2026 ITEP's March 2026 update estimates the 2026 law would lower the lowest fifth's rate from 13.8% to 12.9% and the middle fifth's from 10.9% to 10.6%, and raise the top 1%'s from 4.2% to 6.6%. The income tax applies only above $1 million, so the lower groups' cuts come from the relief, which the Attorney General says stays in place under I-645. The relief stays if voters repeal the tax through I-645, but the 2026 law voids it if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202). The Washington Research Council estimates the state keeps about 70% of the tax's revenue after the relief, so the law is mainly a net revenue increase. ITEP says the top 1% would still pay far less than the middle class. ITEP's 2026 figures come from charts, not a published edition; splitting the changes between the tax and the relief is our inference from who the tax applies to. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Washington Attorney General Washington State Legislature Washington Research Council
1. What the No statement says Reading the official voters' pamphlet text

The No side's statement opens with the sentence rated here and continues that I-645 would make that worse.

Limit: The statement is written by the No committee and cites no source; this article assumes it refers to tax rates as a share of income, which its wording says.

Verify: 2026 voters' pamphlet, Initiative Measure IP26-645, statements for and against

2. ITEP's 50-state model: 13.8% at the bottom, 10.9% in the middle, 4.1% at the top Microsimulation of state and local tax incidence by income group

For 2024 law at 2023 incomes, ITEP estimates total state and local taxes of 13.8% of income for the lowest fifth (average income $18,600), 10.9% for the second and middle fifths, 9.4% for the fourth, 8.0% for the next 15%, 5.4% for the next 4% and 4.1% for the top 1% (average income $2,077,500). Its inequality index ranks Washington second most regressive. The capital gains tax and Working Families Tax Credit, both included, moved Washington from most to second most regressive.

Limit: ITEP advocates more progressive taxes. Its results depend on assumptions about who ultimately pays sales, business and property taxes, it uses one year's income, and it excludes seniors and federal taxes. The 7th edition reflects 2024 law, before the 2025 tax package.

Verify: Who Pays? 7th Edition: Washington (January 2024)

3. The Department of Revenue's own model slopes the same way State household tax burden model

The Tax Structure Work Group report, prepared with the Department of Revenue, estimates state taxes take about 8% of income for households earning $17,000 to $30,000 and about 2% for households above $208,000. It is an independent government estimate that shows the same direction as ITEP.

Limit: State taxes only, for the 2017–19 biennium, before the capital gains tax and the tax credit; it does not separate the top 1%. Local taxes, which it says can roughly double burdens, are excluded.

Verify: Tax Structure Work Group Preliminary Report (December 2020)

4. Critics dispute how regressive, not whether Published methodological critiques

The Tax Foundation argues ITEP wrongly treats the B&O tax like a sales tax and uses one-year rather than lifetime income, both of which overstate regressivity. The Washington Research Council agrees Washington's system is regressive but says ITEP overstates the burden on low-income households and that, with the progressive federal income tax, total tax burdens are progressive in every state. The Washington Policy Center does not dispute ITEP's distribution but says it does not measure total burden or whether a tax system works.

Limit: These groups generally favor lower taxes; none publishes a rival 50-state ranking of Washington with different numbers.

Verify: Who Really Pays Washington State's Taxes? On the regressivity of Washington's tax structure (March 2021) Washington's 'regressive' tax debate ignores where people and money are moving (September 8, 2026)

5. Rates versus dollars Our calculation from ITEP's published averages and rates

Multiplying ITEP's average income by its tax rate gives about $85,200 a year for a top-1% household ($2,077,500 × 4.1%) and about $2,570 for a bottom-fifth household ($18,600 × 13.8%), so the top 1% pay about 33 times as many dollars. The claim is about rates, which is accurate, but the comparison in dollars runs the other way.

Limit: Rates are rounded to a tenth of a point, so the dollar figures are approximate; they are averages for each group.

Verify: Who Pays? 7th Edition: Washington (January 2024)

6. What the 2026 law changes, and what I-645 would undo Comparison of ITEP's 2026 update with the Attorney General's statement and a fiscal analysis

ITEP's March 2026 update estimates the 2026 law would lower the lowest fifth's rate from 13.8% to 12.9% and the middle fifth's from 10.9% to 10.6%, and raise the top 1%'s from 4.2% to 6.6%. The income tax applies only above $1 million, so the lower groups' cuts come from the relief, which the Attorney General says stays in place under I-645. The relief stays if voters repeal the tax through I-645, but the 2026 law voids it if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202). The Washington Research Council estimates the state keeps about 70% of the tax's revenue after the relief, so the law is mainly a net revenue increase. ITEP says the top 1% would still pay far less than the middle class.

Limit: ITEP's 2026 figures come from charts, not a published edition; splitting the changes between the tax and the relief is our inference from who the tax applies to.

Verify: Historic Millionaires' Tax in Washington Will Make State's Tax Code Fairer, Raise Critical Revenue (March 30, 2026) Ballot title and explanatory statement for Initiative IP26-645 (July 23, 2026) ESSB 6346, chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (session law) State will retain about 70% of annual income tax revenues (March 31, 2026)

Common questions

“ITEP is an advocacy group, so its numbers can't be trusted.”

Short answer: Advocacy, but not alone

ITEP does advocate progressive taxes, and its assumptions are disputed, which is why confidence is moderate. But the Department of Revenue's own model shows the same direction, and the Washington Research Council, which opposes income taxes, concedes the system is regressive. The dispute is about how regressive, not whether.

“The wealthy pay far more in taxes.”

Short answer: In dollars, yes

By our calculation from ITEP's figures, a top-1% household pays about $85,200 a year and a bottom-fifth household about $2,570, about 33 times more. The claim is about tax rates, a share of income, where the order reverses.

“Counting federal taxes, the system isn't upside down.”

Short answer: True of total taxes

The Washington Research Council notes that with the progressive federal income tax, total tax burdens are progressive in every state. The claim is about Washington's own tax system, which is state and local, so this is context rather than a contradiction.

“I-645 would make the system more upside down.”

Short answer: Only at the top

Compared with the 2026 law, I-645 would keep the relief that lowers rates for lower- and middle-income families (the Attorney General says it stays) and remove the higher rate on the top 1%. By ITEP's 2026 figures, the top 1% would pay about 4.2% instead of 6.6%. Compared with today, when the income tax is not yet collected, I-645 changes nothing. The relief stays if voters repeal the tax through I-645, but the 2026 law voids it if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202). Its cost would have to be covered from other revenue, since the state was to keep about 70% of the tax's revenue after paying for it.

“Washington is the most regressive state.”

Short answer: Second, after Florida

In the 7th edition, adding the capital gains tax and the Working Families Tax Credit moved Washington from most to second most regressive. 'One of the most' is accurate.

Conclusion

On the measure the claim refers to, the share of income paid in state and local taxes, the evidence supports it. ITEP's Who Pays? (7th edition, 2024 law at 2023 incomes) estimates that the lowest-income fifth of Washington's non-elderly families pays 13.8 percent of income, the second and middle fifths 10.9 percent each, the fourth fifth 9.4 percent and the top 1 percent 4.1 percent. Working and middle-class families therefore pay about 2.7 times the top 1 percent's rate, which is 'far higher' on any reading, and ITEP's inequality index ranks Washington's system second most regressive in the country, behind Florida. The Department of Revenue's own model, which covers state taxes only and older law, slopes the same way: about 8 percent of income for households earning $17,000 to $30,000, falling to about 2 percent above $208,000. The rating is Mostly true with moderate confidence rather than True because the claim rests on modeling choices that informed critics dispute and leaves out context. The Tax Foundation and the Washington Research Council argue that ITEP treats the business and occupation tax as if it were a sales tax paid by consumers and uses one year's income, both of which make the system look more regressive; the Research Council concedes Washington is regressive but notes that counting the progressive federal income tax makes the total tax burden progressive in every state. Rates are not dollars: by our calculation from ITEP's averages, a top-1 percent household pays about $85,000 a year in state and local taxes and a bottom-fifth household about $2,600, roughly 33 times more. The surrounding argument also needs context. The No statement continues that 'I-645 would make that worse.' By ITEP's March 2026 update, the 2026 law would lower the bottom fifth's rate from 13.8 to 12.9 percent and raise the top 1 percent's from 4.2 to 6.6 percent. Because the income tax applies only above $1 million, all of the reduction for lower- and middle-income groups comes from the tax relief passed with it, the larger Working Families Tax Credit and new sales-tax exemptions (our inference from ITEP's figures), and the Attorney General says that relief stays in place if I-645 passes. The relief stays if voters repeal the tax through I-645, but the 2026 law voids it if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202). What I-645 would undo is the higher rate on the top 1 percent. The tax is also mainly a net revenue increase rather than a rebalancing: the Washington Research Council estimates the state would keep about 70 percent of the revenue after the relief. Even with the 2026 law fully in effect, ITEP still estimates the middle fifth would pay more (10.6 percent) than the top 1 percent (6.6 percent). Whether a regressive system should be changed, and how, is a question of values this article does not rate.

How we checked

  1. Defined the claim as the No statement's exact sentence, read as a comparison of state and local tax rates as a share of income.
  2. Read ITEP's Who Pays? 7th edition Washington profile and its March 2026 updates for current law and the 2026 law.
  3. Compared with the Department of Revenue's own household tax burden estimates.
  4. Read published critiques from the Tax Foundation, Washington Research Council and Washington Policy Center.
  5. Calculated dollars paid from ITEP's average incomes and rates.
  6. Checked what I-645 changes against the Attorney General's explanatory statement and the Washington Research Council's analysis of the 2026 law's net revenue.

Editorial note: Scope: one sentence of the No side's voters' pamphlet statement, rated on its own terms (tax rates as a share of income). FactHub takes no position on whether Washington's tax system should be more progressive or on I-645. ITEP's 2026 figures for current law and for the 2026 law are read from the charts in its March 2026 posts; ITEP has not published them as a full edition. Dollar amounts and the attribution of the lower groups' rate changes to the relief are our calculations from ITEP's published figures. A companion set of FactHub articles checks claims from both campaigns with the same rules.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: None known.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. Government Washington Secretary of State. 2026 voters' pamphlet, Initiative Measure IP26-645, statements for and against

    The official pamphlet page with both campaigns' statements, each written by the campaign's own committee.

    Reliability: The Secretary of State publishes the statements as submitted; the No statement was written by a committee including the Washington Education Association and Washington State Labor Council presidents.

    • The No statement says Washington's tax system is one of the most upside-down, with working and middle-class families paying a far higher rate than the wealthiest.

      What the source says
      Washington has one of the nation's most upside-down tax systems, where working and middle class families pay a far higher tax rate than the wealthiest. I-645 would make that worse.
      Argument against, opening paragraph · No on I-645 committee (voters' pamphlet statement)
  2. Advocacy group Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Who Pays? 7th Edition: Washington (January 2024) Free copy

    ITEP's state profile from its 50-state study of who pays state and local taxes, with effective rates by income group.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. ITEP is a nonprofit that advocates more progressive taxes and supported Washington's millionaires tax. Its model's incidence assumptions are disputed by the Tax Foundation and the Washington Research Council.

    • Total state and local taxes: 13.8% of income for the lowest fifth, 10.9% for the second and middle fifths, 9.4% for the fourth, 4.1% for the top 1%.

      What the source says
      TOTAL TAXES
      Table, Total taxes row: 13.8%, 10.9%, 10.9%, 9.4%, 8.0%, 5.4%, 4.1%

    • ITEP's inequality index ranks Washington's system second most regressive.

      What the source says
      Washington has the 2nd most regressive state and local tax system in the country.
      ITEP Tax Inequality Index

    • Qualifies: The capital gains tax and the Working Families Tax Credit moved Washington from most to second most regressive.

      What the source says
      These changes caused the state to move 1 spot in the ITEP Inequality Index rankings, from most to 2nd most regressive.
      Note below charts

    • Qualifies: The figures reflect 2024 law at 2023 incomes and exclude seniors.

      What the source says
      All figures and charts show 2024 tax law in Washington, presented at 2023 income levels. Senior taxpayers are excluded
      Note below charts

    • Qualifies: Average incomes: $18,600 for the lowest fifth and $2,077,500 for the top 1%, the basis of our dollar calculation.

      What the source says
      Average Income in Group
      Table, Average income row: $18,600 (lowest 20%) and $2,077,500 (top 1%)
  3. Advocacy group Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Historic Millionaires' Tax in Washington Will Make State's Tax Code Fairer, Raise Critical Revenue (March 30, 2026)

    ITEP's statement on the signing of ESSB 6346, with charts updating its Washington estimates for current law and for the 2026 law.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. ITEP supported the 2026 law. Its updated rates (13.8% to 12.9% for the lowest fifth, 4.2% to 6.6% for the top 1%) appear only in chart images in this post and its March 12 analysis.

    • Even after the 2026 law, ITEP says the top 1% would pay a lower rate than the middle class; its chart shows 10.6% for the middle fifth and 6.6% for the top 1%.

      What the source says
      the richest 1 percent in the state will no longer pay the lowest effective tax rate, although they will still pay far less than the middle class and the poorest Washingtonians
      Body, and Figure 2 in ITEP's March 12, 2026 analysis
  4. Government Washington State Tax Structure Work Group / Department of Revenue. Tax Structure Work Group Preliminary Report (December 2020)

    The legislative work group's report, using the Department of Revenue's household tax burden model for state taxes in 2017–19.

    Reliability: A state agency model created at the Legislature's direction; covers state taxes only and predates the capital gains tax and the tax credit.

    • State taxes take about 8% of income for $17,000–$30,000 households and about 2% above $208,000; local taxes can roughly double burdens.

      What the source says
      State tax burdens average about 8% of total income for lower-income households (i.e., $17,000-$30,000) and decline to approximately 2% of total income for households making more than $208,000.
      Household tax burden discussion (Exhibit 17)
  5. Advocacy group Tax Foundation. Who Really Pays Washington State's Taxes?

    A critique of ITEP's Washington findings by Jared Walczak of the Tax Foundation.

    Reliability: The Tax Foundation is a think tank that generally favors broad bases and low rates; it disputes ITEP's incidence assumptions but does not publish a rival ranking.

    • Qualifies: ITEP treats the B&O gross receipts tax like a sales tax, which the Tax Foundation says overstates regressivity.

      What the source says
      But there’s no reason to think that B&O distributional effects align with sales taxes
      Section on the B&O tax

    • Qualifies: Using one year's income rather than lifetime income makes systems look more regressive.

      What the source says
      ITEP uses a “snapshot” rather than “lifetime” income approach in calculating tax distributions, which yields findings of substantially greater regressivity.
      Section on methodology
  6. Advocacy group Washington Research Council. On the regressivity of Washington's tax structure (March 2021)

    A Washington Research Council post on ITEP's findings and the state's tax structure.

    Reliability: Speaks against its own interest. A business-supported research group that has opposed state income taxes; its concession that the system is regressive runs against its general position.

    • The Research Council agrees Washington's tax structure is regressive, as all state and local structures are.

      What the source says
      It is true that Washington’s tax structure is regressive—all state and local tax structures are.
      Opening section

    • Qualifies: With the federal income tax counted, total tax burdens are progressive in every state, including Washington.

      What the source says
      When you look at the overall federal-state-local tax system, the tax burden is progressive in every state, including Washington.
      Body
  7. Advocacy group Washington Policy Center. Washington's 'regressive' tax debate ignores where people and money are moving (September 8, 2026)

    A Washington Policy Center analysis by Ryan Frost on the relevance of ITEP's rankings.

    Reliability: A free-market think tank that opposes the millionaires tax; it disputes the ranking's relevance, not its distribution figures.

    • Qualifies: WPC says ITEP's study measures distribution only, not total burden or whether a tax system works.

      What the source says
      The study measures how the tax burden is distributed, but it does not measure the total burden, economic competitiveness, or whether a tax system is working.
      Opening section
  8. Government Washington Attorney General. Ballot title and explanatory statement for Initiative IP26-645 (July 23, 2026)

    The Attorney General's official explanation of I-645's effect, printed in the voters' pamphlet.

    Reliability: Written by the Attorney General's office under RCW 29A.32.070 to explain the measure's effect to voters.

    • Qualifies: If I-645 passes, the credits and exemptions that came with the tax stay in place.

      What the source says
      The non-income tax credits, exemptions, and deductions that accompanied this tax would not be repealed and would remain in place.
      The Effect of the Proposed Measure if Approved
  9. Advocacy group Washington Research Council. State will retain about 70% of annual income tax revenues (March 31, 2026)

    Emily Makings's analysis of ESSB 6346's fiscal note, comparing the tax's revenue with the cost of the relief.

    Reliability: A business-supported research group; the analysis is arithmetic from the state's fiscal note, which assumes no behavioral response.

    • Qualifies: After the relief and tax-credit payments, the state keeps about 70% of the tax's revenue, so the law is mainly a net revenue increase.

      What the source says
      After the tax reductions and WFTC remittances, the state will retain about 70% of annual income tax revenues for general spending.
      Body, below the table of impacts by provision
  10. Government Washington State Legislature. ESSB 6346, chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (session law)

    The enacted 2026 law that created the income tax and the tax relief.

    Reliability: The official session law as passed and signed.

    • Qualifies: If a court of final jurisdiction invalidates the tax, the law voids most of its sections, the relief included; I-645 does not repeal this clause.

      What the source says
      If a court of final jurisdiction invalidates section 201 of this act, sections 1 through 1003 and 1201 through 1209 of this act are null and void in its entirety.
      Sec. 1202, p. 107
  11. FactHub dataset Initiative 645: the campaigns' claims in their own words
    • Washington has one of the nation’s most upside-down tax systems, where working and middle class families pay a far higher tax rate than the wealthiest.
      Committee for the argument against Initiative 645 (WEA President Janie White and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument against I-645, · In the dataset

Update history

  1. Updated the ownership disclosure. Removed a link to a companion draft, to be restored when the companion set is final.
  2. Added that the 2026 law voids the tax relief if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202), a clause I-645 leaves in place.
  3. Cited the No statement from FactHub's dataset of the campaigns' voters' pamphlet statements.
  4. Initial version.

Cited by

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  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 6 (published) cites version 4
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 4 (published) cites version 4

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