The short version

Claim we investigated

Seattle's median household income has fallen behind inflation in recent years.

True. Seattle's 2025 middle household income, $122,809, buys 9.5% less than in 2021, a drop bigger than survey error. Census income figures, adjusted with federal price data for the Seattle area, fell from $135,698 in 2021 to $122,809 in 2025. The drop holds with national prices too.

Quote or cite this fact-check
FactHub rates the claim “Seattle's median household income has fallen behind inflation in recent years” True (high confidence): Seattle's 2025 middle household income, $122,809, buys 9.5% less than in 2021, a drop bigger than survey error. Reviewed November 2, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/seattle-income-behind-inflation/2

Key points

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. After rising prices, Seattle's middle household income of $122,809 in 2025 buys 9.5% less than in 2021 and 8% less than in 2019.
  • Established. The drop since 2021 is bigger than the survey's margin of error, the amount a sample survey can be off, with Seattle or national prices.
  • Not shown. The three-year dip from 2022 to 2025 (5.3%) is too small for the survey to confirm, and 2025 alone rose about 1%.
  • Context. The wider Seattle area fell less: 3.7% since 2021, and it gained 4.3% after inflation in 2025.
  • Context. Before 2021, incomes grew fast: Seattle's middle income rose 16% after inflation from 2015 to 2021.
Important context: Median household income is the income of the household in the middle: half earn more, half earn less. On November 2, 2026, the Seattle Times reported that Seattle's median has failed to keep pace with inflation for three years. We checked the Census Bureau's yearly American Community Survey (ACS) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index (CPI), which tracks prices. This check covers the city of Seattle and compares it with the wider metro area, which includes Tacoma, Bellevue and the suburbs.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 4 methods across 3 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
American Community Survey 1-year estimates of median household income (table B19013) for Seattle city, converted to 2025 dollars, with 90% margins of error. U.S. Census Bureau United States 2015, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 In 2025 dollars, Seattle's median household income was $133,475 in 2019, peaked at $135,698 in 2021, and was $122,809 in 2025. The fall since 2021 is $12,889 (9.5%), with a 90% interval of -$20,004 to -$5,774. Since 2019 the fall is $10,666 (8.0%), with an interval of -$17,107 to -$4,225. The ACS is a sample survey, so each median has a margin of error of about $4,000 to $6,000 for the city. There is no standard 2020 1-year estimate. A city median also moves when households move in or out, so it does not track any one household's income. FactHub dataset: median household income in 2025 dollars FactHub dataset: change in Seattle city real median income U.S. Census Bureau
Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index for all urban consumers, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, annual averages, used to convert each year's income to 2025 dollars. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States 2019, 2021, 2025 The Seattle-area CPI annual average rose from 277.984 in 2019 and 295.560 in 2021 to 362.039 in 2025. That is 30.2% since 2019 and 22.5% since 2021. Seattle's median in plain dollars rose 19.8% and 10.9% over the same spans, so prices outran income. The Seattle CPI covers the whole metro area, not just the city. BLS did not collect October 2025 prices because of the federal funding lapse, but it still published a 2025 annual average. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics FactHub dataset: Seattle city change using the national CPI
The same comparison repeated with the national CPI-U, and for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States 2019, 2021, 2025 With the national CPI, the city's drop since 2021 is 6.7%, still outside the margin of error. Since 2019 it is 4.8%, just inside it. The metro median fell 3.7% since 2021 (outside the margin) and 2.0% since 2019 (inside it), and rose 4.3% in 2025. The national CPI does not reflect Seattle prices, and the metro area is a different, larger population than the city, so neither is a direct replication. FactHub dataset: Seattle city change using the national CPI FactHub dataset: change in Seattle metro real median income
The column's published opening and the paper's post summarizing it. The Seattle Times United States 2026 Columnist Gene Balk wrote that the 2025 Census data ended a long run of big income gains. The paper's post said the median has failed to keep pace with inflation for three years. The column is behind a paywall; we read only its opening, so we could not see which years or price index it used. The Seattle Times
1. Census survey: Seattle's median income in 2025 dollars is below 2019 and 2021 American Community Survey 1-year estimates of median household income (table B19013) for Seattle city, converted to 2025 dollars, with 90% margins of error.

In 2025 dollars, Seattle's median household income was $133,475 in 2019, peaked at $135,698 in 2021, and was $122,809 in 2025. The fall since 2021 is $12,889 (9.5%), with a 90% interval of -$20,004 to -$5,774. Since 2019 the fall is $10,666 (8.0%), with an interval of -$17,107 to -$4,225.

Limit: The ACS is a sample survey, so each median has a margin of error of about $4,000 to $6,000 for the city. There is no standard 2020 1-year estimate. A city median also moves when households move in or out, so it does not track any one household's income.

Verify: FactHub dataset: median household income in 2025 dollars FactHub dataset: change in Seattle city real median income Comparing ACS Data

Seattle median household income after inflation, 2015-2025Median household income for Seattle city and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area, in 2025 dollars using the Seattle-area CPI.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[105000,140000],"series":[{"name":"Seattle city","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"Seattle metro area","color":"#b6542c"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":344.8,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"$116,655"},{"series":0,"x":424.4,"y":146.81,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"$133,475"},{"series":0,"x":591.6,"y":120.64,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"$135,698"},{"series":0,"x":675.2,"y":191.34,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"$129,692"},{"series":0,"x":758.8,"y":210,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"$128,107"},{"series":0,"x":842.4,"y":286.39,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"$121,617"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":272.36,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"$122,809"},{"series":1,"x":90,"y":430.57,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"$109,369"},{"series":1,"x":424.4,"y":276.49,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"$122,458"},{"series":1,"x":591.6,"y":251.27,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"$124,601"},{"series":1,"x":675.2,"y":303.78,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"$120,140"},{"series":1,"x":758.8,"y":333.33,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"$117,630"},{"series":1,"x":842.4,"y":363.03,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"$115,107"},{"series":1,"x":926,"y":305.22,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"$120,018"}]}Seattle median household income after inflation, 2015-2025$105,000$110,000$115,000$120,000$125,000$130,000$135,000$140,00020162018202020222024YearSeattle citySeattle citySeattle metro areaNo 2020 ACS 1-year estimateFactHub · Median household income (2025 dollars)
After Seattle-area inflation, Seattle city's median household income peaked in 2021 and was 9.5% lower in 2025. The metro area fell less and rebounded in 2025. View source chart
2. Federal price data: Seattle-area prices rose faster than incomes Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index for all urban consumers, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, annual averages, used to convert each year's income to 2025 dollars.

The Seattle-area CPI annual average rose from 277.984 in 2019 and 295.560 in 2021 to 362.039 in 2025. That is 30.2% since 2019 and 22.5% since 2021. Seattle's median in plain dollars rose 19.8% and 10.9% over the same spans, so prices outran income.

Limit: The Seattle CPI covers the whole metro area, not just the city. BLS did not collect October 2025 prices because of the federal funding lapse, but it still published a 2025 annual average.

Verify: CPI-U, All items in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (CUURS49DSA0) FactHub dataset: Seattle city change using the national CPI

3. Cross-checks: national prices and the metro area The same comparison repeated with the national CPI-U, and for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area.

With the national CPI, the city's drop since 2021 is 6.7%, still outside the margin of error. Since 2019 it is 4.8%, just inside it. The metro median fell 3.7% since 2021 (outside the margin) and 2.0% since 2019 (inside it), and rose 4.3% in 2025.

Limit: The national CPI does not reflect Seattle prices, and the metro area is a different, larger population than the city, so neither is a direct replication.

Verify: FactHub dataset: Seattle city change using the national CPI FactHub dataset: change in Seattle metro real median income

Change in Seattle's real median income, with margin of errorChange in Seattle city median household income in 2025 dollars (Seattle-area CPI) over several periods, with 90% intervals from the Census margins of error. Error bars show the 90% confidence interval of each estimate (ciLow to ciHigh).{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[-30000,10000],"interval":"90% CI","series":[{"name":"Value","color":"#176b87"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":282.86,"xLabel":"2019 to 2025","yLabel":"-$10,666","low":"-$17,107","high":"-$4,225"},{"series":0,"x":299,"y":305.76,"xLabel":"2021 to 2025","yLabel":"-$12,889","low":"-$20,004","high":"-$5,774"},{"series":0,"x":508,"y":243.89,"xLabel":"2022 to 2025","yLabel":"-$6,883","low":"-$14,691","high":"$925"},{"series":0,"x":717,"y":239.85,"xLabel":"2023 to 2024","yLabel":"-$6,490","low":"-$13,916","high":"$936"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":160.72,"xLabel":"2024 to 2025","yLabel":"$1,192","low":"-$6,542","high":"$8,926"}]}Change in Seattle's real median income, with margin of error-$30,000-$20,000-$10,000$0$10,0002019 to 20252021 to 20252022 to 20252023 to 20242024 to 2025PeriodNo changeFactHub · Change in median income (2025 dollars)Error bars: 90% CI
Only the declines since 2019 and since 2021 are larger than the survey's margin of error. The 2022-2025 drop and the single-year changes are not. View source chart
4. What the Seattle Times reported The column's published opening and the paper's post summarizing it.

Columnist Gene Balk wrote that the 2025 Census data ended a long run of big income gains. The paper's post said the median has failed to keep pace with inflation for three years.

Limit: The column is behind a paywall; we read only its opening, so we could not see which years or price index it used.

Verify: After a decade of big gains, household income stalls in Seattle

Common questions 5

“Seattle's median household income has failed to keep pace with inflation for three years.”

Our rating: Mostly true

The direction is right, but the 2022-2025 drop of 5.3% is within the survey's margin of error. In 2025 alone, the middle income rose about 1% after inflation. The clearer finding is the 9.5% drop since 2021.

See the evidence: What the Seattle Times reported

“Incomes across the wider Seattle area also fell behind prices in 2025.”

Our rating: False

The Seattle metro area's middle household income rose 4.3% after inflation in 2025, more than the survey's margin of error. It is still 3.7% below 2021, a smaller drop than the city's 9.5%.

See the evidence: Cross-checks: national prices and the metro area

“Does a falling median mean most Seattle households earn less than before?”

Short answer: Not necessarily

The middle income can fall when higher earners move out or lower earners move in, even if no one's pay drops. The survey counts whoever lives in the city each year. It can't separate moves from pay changes.

See the evidence: Census survey: Seattle's median income in 2025 dollars is below 2019 and 2021

“Did Seattle prices rise faster than prices nationwide?”

Short answer: Yes, somewhat

Seattle-area prices rose 30.2% from 2019 to 2025, compared with 25.9% nationwide. That is why the drop looks larger with Seattle prices than with national ones.

See the evidence: Federal price data: Seattle-area prices rose faster than incomes

“Why is 2020 missing?”

Short answer: No standard estimate

The Census Bureau released only experimental 2020 ACS 1-year estimates because the pandemic disrupted data collection, and it advises against comparing them with other years.

Conclusion

Seattle's middle household income has not kept up with local prices since 2021. Two federal sources show it: the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index (CPI).

In plain dollars, the median rose 11%, from $110,781 in 2021 to $122,809 in 2025. Seattle-area prices rose 22.5% over the same years. In 2025 dollars, that is a fall from $135,698 to $122,809, or 9.5%. The survey's 90% range for that change runs from -$20,004 to -$5,774, entirely below zero.

The result doesn't depend on which price index we use. With national prices, the drop is 6.7%, still larger than the survey's margin of error. Measured from 2019, the city median is 8.0% lower with Seattle prices. With national prices it is 4.8% lower, just inside the margin.

The Times' exact wording, three years of falling behind, is right in direction but goes further than the survey can show. From 2022 to 2025 the median fell 5.3% after inflation, but that is within the margin of error. In 2025 alone it rose about 1%. We rate that wording Mostly true below.

Two limits matter. The wider metro area fell less, 3.7% since 2021, and it rose 4.3% in 2025. A city median also changes when higher or lower earners move in or out, and this data can't separate that from pay changes. Confidence is high for the drop since 2021, because it holds with both price indexes. It is lower for any single year.

How we checked
  1. Defined the claim: whether Seattle city's median household income, adjusted for local inflation, has fallen in recent years, and separately whether it fell for three years as the Seattle Times post said.
  2. Pulled ACS 1-year median household income (B19013) and its 90% margin of error for Seattle city and the Seattle metro area for 2015, 2019 and 2021-2025 from the Census Data API.
  3. Pulled BLS CPI-U annual averages for the Seattle area and the U.S. city average, and converted each median to 2025 dollars.
  4. Computed changes between years with 90% intervals of plus or minus sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), and treated a change as clear only when its interval excludes zero.
  5. Repeated the comparison with the national CPI and for the metro area to test whether the result depends on the price index or the geography.
  6. Recorded limits: survey sampling error, the missing 2020 estimate, the metro coverage of the Seattle CPI, and that a city median reflects who lives there.

Editorial note: Scope: median household income for the city of Seattle, with the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area as a cross-check, 2015-2025. We did not see the full Seattle Times column, which is behind a paywall; we checked the claim as worded in its post and opening paragraph, using the same Census release. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: None known.

Sources 7

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. News report The Seattle Times. After a decade of big gains, household income stalls in Seattle

    FYI Guy column by Gene Balk, November 2, 2026, on the 2025 Census income data for Seattle.

    Reliability: A data column by the paper's demographics columnist. Paywalled beyond the first paragraph.

    • The column reports that Seattle's long run of large income gains ended in the 2025 Census data.

      What the source says
      After reviewing the new 2025 data, released last week, I can report that streak is over.
      Opening paragraph
  2. Government U.S. Census Bureau. Comparing ACS Data

    Census Bureau guidance on which ACS estimates can be compared across years.

    Reliability: Official guidance from the agency that runs the survey.

    • Year-to-year comparisons should use 1-year estimates against 1-year estimates, as this check does.

      What the source says
      Only compare 1-year estimates with 1-year estimates.
      Comparing ACS data across years

    • Qualifies: The 2020 1-year estimates are experimental and should not be compared with other years, so 2020 is left out.

      What the source says
      Data users should not compare 2020 ACS 1-year experimental estimates with any other data.
      2020 ACS 1-year experimental data
  3. Government U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U, All items in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (CUURS49DSA0)

    BLS data page for the Seattle-area consumer price index, with monthly and annual-average values.

    Reliability: The official federal price index for the Seattle metro area, collected every other month.

    • The price index used is the Seattle-area CPI for all urban consumers; its annual averages are 277.984 (2019), 295.560 (2021) and 362.039 (2025).

      What the source says
      All items in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted
      Series title; Annual column

    • Qualifies: One 2025 collection month is missing because of the federal funding lapse.

      What the source says
      Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations
      Footnote X, 2025 row
  4. FactHub record FactHub dataset: median household income in 2025 dollars. FactHub dataset: median household income in 2025 dollars

    Saved analysis of Census medians converted with the Seattle-area CPI, Seattle city and metro, 2015-2025.

    • Seattle city's real median rose from $116,655 (2015) to $135,698 (2021) and fell to $122,809 (2025), in 2025 dollars.

  5. FactHub record FactHub dataset: change in Seattle city real median income. FactHub dataset: change in Seattle city real median income

    Saved analysis of changes between years with 90% intervals.

    • From 2021 to 2025 the city's real median fell $12,889 (9.5%), 90% interval -$20,004 to -$5,774.

    • From 2019 to 2025 it fell $10,666 (8.0%), 90% interval -$17,107 to -$4,225.

    • Qualifies: From 2022 to 2025 it fell $6,883 (5.3%), but the 90% interval (-$14,691 to +$925) includes zero.

    • Qualifies: From 2024 to 2025 it rose $1,192 (1.0%), within the margin of error.

  6. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Seattle city change using the national CPI. FactHub dataset: Seattle city change using the national CPI

    Saved analysis repeating the city comparison with the U.S. city-average CPI.

    • With national prices, the city's real median fell 6.7% from 2021 to 2025, interval -$15,814 to -$1,808.

    • Qualifies: With national prices, the fall from 2019 to 2025 is 4.8%, and its interval (-$12,601 to +$103) just includes zero.

    • Seattle-area prices rose 30.2% from 2019 to 2025, faster than the 25.9% national rise.

  7. FactHub record FactHub dataset: change in Seattle metro real median income. FactHub dataset: change in Seattle metro real median income

    Saved analysis for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area.

    • The metro median fell 3.7% from 2021 to 2025 after Seattle-area inflation, interval -$6,832 to -$2,334.

    • Qualifies: The metro median rose 4.3% from 2024 to 2025, interval +$2,193 to +$7,629, and is 2.0% below 2019, within the margin.

  8. FactHub dataset Seattle median household income adjusted for inflation, 2015-2025

    Tables: income-cpi

    Table income-cpi, all rows

  9. FactHub chart seattle-real-median-income
  10. FactHub chart seattle-income-change-margin

Update history 2 changes, last

  1. First version.
  2. Rewrote the title, lead, verdict, key points and conclusion in plainer words for authoring rules 1.22. Added two lead questions (the metro area's 2025 gain; what a falling median means) and a question on Seattle vs national prices.

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