Change in Seattle city median income after Seattle-area inflation
Question: Is the city's drop in real median income larger than the survey's margin of error?
Result: 2019 to 2025: −$10,666 (−8.0%), 90% interval −$17,107 to −$4,225. 2021 to 2025: −$12,889 (−9.5%), −$20,004 to −$5,774. 2022 to 2025: −$6,883 (−5.3%), −$14,691 to +$925. 2024 to 2025: +$1,192 (+1.0%), −$6,542 to +$8,926.
Operation: Difference of median_2025_seattle_cpi between two years for seattle-city, with 90% interval ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²).
Scope: Seattle city
| Estimate | Value | Uncertainty | Method | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 to 2025 | -10666 2025 dollars (90% CI -17107 to -4225) | 90% confidence interval | Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact | — |
| 2021 to 2025 | -12889 2025 dollars (90% CI -20004 to -5774) | 90% confidence interval | Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact | — |
| 2022 to 2025 | -6883 2025 dollars (90% CI -14691 to 925) | 90% confidence interval | Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact | — |
| 2023 to 2024 | -6490 2025 dollars (90% CI -13916 to 936) | 90% confidence interval | Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact | — |
| 2024 to 2025 | 1192 2025 dollars (90% CI -6542 to 8926) | 90% confidence interval | Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact | — |
- The interval ignores sampling overlap between years, so it is approximate.
Robustness checks
- Sensitivity analysis: Change in Seattle city median income after national inflation. With the national CPI, the drop since 2021 is smaller (−6.7%) but still outside the margin of error; the drop since 2019 (−4.8%) is just inside it.
- Alternative comparison: Change in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro median income after Seattle-area inflation. The metro area fell far less: −3.7% since 2021 (outside the margin) and −2.0% since 2019 (inside it), and it rose 4.3% in 2025.