Analysis

Change in Seattle city median income after Seattle-area inflation

Is the city's drop in real median income larger than the survey's margin of error?

Coverage: 2015, 2019, 2021-2025 (no standard ACS 1-year release for 2020; 2016-2018 not included)

Contained in Seattle median household income adjusted for inflation, 2015-2025.

What this dataset measures

Built to check whether Seattle's typical household income has kept pace with inflation, as reported by The Seattle Times on November 2, 2026. The city is the claim's subject; the metro area and the national CPI are included as cross-checks.

Saved analyses

Change in Seattle city median income after Seattle-area inflation

Question: Is the city's drop in real median income larger than the survey's margin of error?

Result: 2019 to 2025: −$10,666 (−8.0%), 90% interval −$17,107 to −$4,225. 2021 to 2025: −$12,889 (−9.5%), −$20,004 to −$5,774. 2022 to 2025: −$6,883 (−5.3%), −$14,691 to +$925. 2024 to 2025: +$1,192 (+1.0%), −$6,542 to +$8,926.

Operation: Difference of median_2025_seattle_cpi between two years for seattle-city, with 90% interval ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²).

Scope: Seattle city

Estimates with uncertainty
EstimateValueUncertaintyMethodn
2019 to 2025 -10666 2025 dollars (90% CI -17107 to -4225) 90% confidence interval Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact —
2021 to 2025 -12889 2025 dollars (90% CI -20004 to -5774) 90% confidence interval Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact —
2022 to 2025 -6883 2025 dollars (90% CI -14691 to 925) 90% confidence interval Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact —
2023 to 2024 -6490 2025 dollars (90% CI -13916 to 936) 90% confidence interval Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact —
2024 to 2025 1192 2025 dollars (90% CI -6542 to 8926) 90% confidence interval Difference of ACS 1-year medians converted to 2025 dollars; 90% interval = ±sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), treating the CPI as exact —

View this analysis

  • The interval ignores sampling overlap between years, so it is approximate.

Robustness checks

Sources

  1. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2015 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2015, in 2015 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2019, in 2019 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  3. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2021 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2021, in 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  4. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2022 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2022, in 2022 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  5. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2023 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2023, in 2023 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  6. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2024, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  7. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2025 1-year estimates, table B19013 (median household income) Median household income and 90% margin of error for Seattle city, WA (place 5363000) and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area (CBSA 42660), 2025, in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. Retrieved through the Census Data API (dataset acs/acs1, variables B19013_001E and B19013_001M).

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; the Census Bureau asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The American Community Survey samples about 3.5 million addresses a year; 1-year estimates are published only for areas with 65,000 or more people. Every estimate carries a 90% margin of error.

  8. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U, All items in Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (series CUURS49DSA0) Annual-average consumer price index for the Seattle area, 2015-2025, used to convert incomes to 2025 dollars.

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; BLS asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. BLS collects Seattle-area prices every other month. The October 2025 collection was cancelled by the 2025 lapse in appropriations.

  9. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U, All items in U.S. city average (series CUUR0000SA0) Annual-average national consumer price index, used as an alternative deflator.

    Retrieved November 2, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; BLS asks to be cited.

    Reliability: Government. The headline national CPI-U. The October 2025 value was not collected because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input is a published Census ACS or BLS CPI value listed in the table. Real values are nominal median × (2025 CPI annual average ÷ that year's CPI annual average), rounded to the dollar.

  • ACS 1-year values are sample estimates. Year-to-year changes in the city median are often smaller than the margin of error.
  • The Census Bureau did not release standard 2020 ACS 1-year estimates because of pandemic data-collection problems; 2020 is missing, not zero.
  • A city median reflects who lives in the city each year. Households moving in or out (for example, higher earners moving to suburbs) change it even if no household's income changes.
  • The BLS Seattle-area CPI covers the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area, not the city alone. The October 2025 Seattle CPI was not collected because of the 2025 lapse in federal appropriations; BLS still published a 2025 annual average.
  • Margins of error for differences use the Census approximation sqrt(MOE1² + MOE2²), which ignores sample overlap between years and treats the CPI as exact.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article seattle-income-behind-inflation — version 2 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart seattle-income-change-margin — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart seattle-real-median-income — version 1 (published) cites version 1

Node: dataset:seattle-median-income-inflation:1:analysis:city-real-change