The short version

Claim we investigated

Washington's paid leave payroll tax will be 1.2% of wages in 2027, triple the 2019 rate, and even that is not projected to keep the program solvent.

True. The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times 2019's 0.4%, and the state actuary projects deficits even at that cap. State records set the 2027 rate at 1.2%, up from 0.4% in 2019. The state's own actuary projects that costs pass premiums in 2028, leaving the fund $992 million short once 2029 premiums are collected.

Quote or cite this fact-check
FactHub rates the claim “Washington's paid leave payroll tax will be 1.2% of wages in 2027, triple the 2019 rate, and even that is not projected to keep the program solvent” True (high confidence): The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times 2019's 0.4%, and the state actuary projects deficits even at that cap. Reviewed November 3, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-paid-leave-premium-triple-2027/5

Key points

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. The 2027 premium is 1.2% of wages, exactly three times the 0.4% charged in 2019, and 6.2% above 2026's 1.13%.
  • Established. At Washington's median wage of $62,990, a worker pays up to $534 in 2027, about $10 a week.
  • Established. State law caps the rate at 1.2%. A 2026 law that moves rate-setting to the actuary in 2028 kept the cap.
  • Established. The state actuary projects costs pass premiums in 2028, leaving the fund $353 million short by June 2029.
  • Established. Costs rose because more workers used the program and benefits rise with wages; applications grew about 15% a year from 2020 to 2023.
  • Context. In 2020 the state expected rates of 0.4% to 0.6% for the decade; a backward-looking formula let costs outrun premiums.
Important context: The premium is a payroll tax on wages up to the Social Security wage limit. Workers pay up to 70.7% of it; employers with 50 or more workers pay the rest, and smaller employers may skip their share. The solvency numbers are projections the state actuary made in November 2025, assuming claims keep growing about 10% a year. They show what happens if lawmakers change nothing, not a prediction that benefits will stop.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 6 methods across 5 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
Official premium-rate announcements and reports from the Employment Security Department, compared year by year. Washington State Employment Security Department United States 2019, 2020, 2025, 2026 ESD set the total premium at 0.4% of wages for 2019 and 2020 and kept it there in 2021. It then rose to 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.74%, 0.92% and 1.13% (2026). ESD announced on October 16, 2026 that the 2027 rate will be 1.2%. 1.2 divided by 0.4 is exactly 3. The change from 1.13% to 1.2% is 0.07 percentage points, a 6.2% increase. The year before, the rate rose 22.8%. A rate is not a dollar amount. Total premiums also grew because wages and employment grew, so dollars collected rose more than threefold. Washington State Employment Security Department Washington State Employment Security Department Washington State Employment Security Department FactHub Research Team FactHub Research Team
Reading the premium statute and the legislative staff report on the 2026 rate-setting law. Washington State Legislature United States 2026 The premium statute, RCW 50A.10.030, says the total rate must not exceed 1.20%. In 2026 the Legislature passed 2SSB 5292. From 2028 it has the ESD commissioner set the rate from the actuary's annual report instead of a formula, with a four-month reserve target in 2030. The same law keeps the cap. So the 2027 rate is the cap, and the 2028 rate cannot exceed it without a new law. Lawmakers can change the cap or the benefits at any session. The 2027 session had not begun when this was written. Washington State Legislature Washington State Senate Committee Services
ESD's Office of Actuarial Services annual valuation (November 2025) and ESD's October 2026 update to lawmakers. Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services United States 2025, 2026 ESD's two credentialed actuaries project that the rate reaches 1.2% in 2027 and that the rate needed to stay solvent from 2027 on is higher. At the cap, costs are 98% of premiums in 2027, 107% in 2028 and 118% in 2029. The account ends June 2029 at minus $353 million and falls to minus $992 million once 2029 premiums are collected. In October 2026, ESD told a House committee the program will hit the cap in 2027 and move into a sustained deficit in 2029. These are projections from the agency that runs the program, using data through June 2025. ESD told lawmakers in October 2026 that its projections assume claims growth slows but stays about 10% a year; slower growth would shrink the gap, faster growth would widen it. Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services FactHub Research Team Washington State Employment Security Department
JLARC's audit of the program and the actuary's claim data, compared over time. Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee, Washington State Employment Security Department United States 2020, 2023, 2024, 2025 Applications grew about 15% a year, from 168,000 in 2020 to 259,000 in 2023. Weekly benefits are tied to wages and the state average weekly wage, and the maximum rose from $1,000 to $1,456 by 2024. From January 2023 to January 2025, monthly benefit payments rose 46%. Paid weekly claims rose 35% and the payment per weekly claim about 8%. Expenses exceeded revenue in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025. The measures cover different periods and do not fully split cost growth between more claims and costlier claims. They show more use, not whether any use was improper. Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services FactHub Research Team FactHub Research Team
JLARC's audit findings and ESD's own account of the 2024 rate cut, set against ESD's 2020 forecast. Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee, Washington State Employment Security Department United States 2020, 2024, 2025 JLARC found that the statutory rate formula does not raise enough to cover program costs. A legislative staff summary of the actuary's report adds that the method considered only prior-period experience, so it could not anticipate growth. After the state added $200 million to the fund in 2023, the rate fell from 0.80% in 2023 to 0.74% in 2024 while claims kept rising. In 2020, ESD expected rates of 0.4% to 0.6% over the coming decade. The 2020 forecast was made in the program's first year of benefits, during a pandemic, and ESD warned it was very uncertain. Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee Washington State Senate Committee Services Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services Washington State Employment Security Department
Federal wage survey data for Washington multiplied by ESD's 2027 rate and employee share. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington State Employment Security Department United States 2025, 2027 Washington's median wage in May 2025 was $62,990. At 1.2%, the premium on that wage is $755.88, and the worker's share (70.7%) is up to $534.41, about $10 a week. An employer with 50 or more workers adds $221.47. That is $26 more for the worker than in 2026. Under 2019 rules the worker's share would have been $159.57, so it is 3.35 times as much, because the worker's share of the premium also rose, from 63.3% to 70.7%. The worker's share is the most an employer may withhold; some employers pay part of it. Workers at employers with fewer than 50 people pay the same share, but no employer share is collected on their wages. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington State Employment Security Department Washington State Employment Security Department FactHub Research Team
1. The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times the starting rate Official premium-rate announcements and reports from the Employment Security Department, compared year by year.

ESD set the total premium at 0.4% of wages for 2019 and 2020 and kept it there in 2021. It then rose to 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.74%, 0.92% and 1.13% (2026). ESD announced on October 16, 2026 that the 2027 rate will be 1.2%.

1.2 divided by 0.4 is exactly 3. The change from 1.13% to 1.2% is 0.07 percentage points, a 6.2% increase. The year before, the rate rose 22.8%.

Limit: A rate is not a dollar amount. Total premiums also grew because wages and employment grew, so dollars collected rose more than threefold.

Verify: Paid Family & Medical Leave premium rate increases to 1.2% in 2027 Paid Family & Medical Leave premium rate increases to 1.13% in 2026 Paid Family and Medical Leave Program Annual Report, December 2020 Paid Leave premium rate by year, 2019-2027 Checking the tripling and the 6.2% increase

Washington paid leave premium rate, 2019-2027The total premium for Washington's Paid Family and Medical Leave program, as a percent of wages, from its start in 2019 to 2027, when it reaches the 1.2% legal maximum.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[0,1.2000000000000002],"series":[{"name":"Value","color":"#176b87"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":344.67,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"0.40"},{"series":0,"x":194.5,"y":344.67,"xLabel":"2020","yLabel":"0.40"},{"series":0,"x":299,"y":344.67,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"0.40"},{"series":0,"x":403.5,"y":276,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"0.60"},{"series":0,"x":508,"y":207.33,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"0.80"},{"series":0,"x":612.5,"y":227.93,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"0.74"},{"series":0,"x":717,"y":166.13,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"0.92"},{"series":0,"x":821.5,"y":94.03,"xLabel":"2026","yLabel":"1.13"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":70,"xLabel":"2027","yLabel":"1.20"}]}Washington paid leave premium rate, 2019-20270.000.200.400.600.801.001.2020192020202120222024202520262027YearLegal maximum: 1.20%FactHub · Premium rate (% of wages)
The premium tripled from 0.40% in 2019 to 1.20% in 2027, the most state law allows. View source chart
3. The state actuary projects deficits at the 1.2% cap ESD's Office of Actuarial Services annual valuation (November 2025) and ESD's October 2026 update to lawmakers.

ESD's two credentialed actuaries project that the rate reaches 1.2% in 2027 and that the rate needed to stay solvent from 2027 on is higher. At the cap, costs are 98% of premiums in 2027, 107% in 2028 and 118% in 2029.

The account ends June 2029 at minus $353 million and falls to minus $992 million once 2029 premiums are collected. In October 2026, ESD told a House committee the program will hit the cap in 2027 and move into a sustained deficit in 2029.

Limit: These are projections from the agency that runs the program, using data through June 2025. ESD told lawmakers in October 2026 that its projections assume claims growth slows but stays about 10% a year; slower growth would shrink the gap, faster growth would widen it.

Verify: Actuarial Annual Report for Paid Family and Medical Leave, November 2025 Projected premiums vs. costs at the 1.2% cap Paid Leave Solvency and Integrity Report: Preliminary Update (House Labor and Workplace Standards, October 6, 2026)

Why do some leaders want workers giving even more of their wages to the program? Because even the 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent.

Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center Washington Policy Center blog post · · Assertion

Context: The post answers its own question about why some leaders want a higher cap. It later adds that the program was not sustainable at 0.40% and is not expected to be sustainable at a rate three times as high.

Source: Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New) · View in the dataset

Projected paid leave premiums vs. costs at the 1.2% cap, 2026-2029The Washington Employment Security Department actuary's November 2025 projection of Paid Leave premiums against benefits and other costs, by year, once the rate reaches its 1.2% legal maximum.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[2600,4000],"series":[{"name":"Premiums at the projected rate","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"Benefits and other costs","color":"#b6542c"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":415.2,"xLabel":"2026","yLabel":"$2,827"},{"series":1,"x":90,"y":449.33,"xLabel":"2026","yLabel":"$2,711"},{"series":0,"x":368.67,"y":333.39,"xLabel":"2027","yLabel":"$3,105"},{"series":1,"x":368.67,"y":350.16,"xLabel":"2027","yLabel":"$3,048"},{"series":0,"x":647.33,"y":294.54,"xLabel":"2028","yLabel":"$3,237"},{"series":1,"x":647.33,"y":223.91,"xLabel":"2028","yLabel":"$3,477"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":253.63,"xLabel":"2029","yLabel":"$3,376"},{"series":1,"x":926,"y":78.53,"xLabel":"2029","yLabel":"$3,971"}]}Projected paid leave premiums vs. costs at the 1.2% cap, 2026-2029$2,600$2,800$3,000$3,200$3,400$3,600$3,800$4,0002026202720282029Calendar yearPremiums at the projected rateBenefits and other costsRate reaches 1.2% capFactHub · Millions of dollars
Once the rate is held at 1.2%, the state actuary projects costs passing premiums in 2028. Projection from November 2025; the axis does not start at zero. View source chart
4. More claims and wage-linked benefits drove costs up JLARC's audit of the program and the actuary's claim data, compared over time.

Applications grew about 15% a year, from 168,000 in 2020 to 259,000 in 2023. Weekly benefits are tied to wages and the state average weekly wage, and the maximum rose from $1,000 to $1,456 by 2024.

From January 2023 to January 2025, monthly benefit payments rose 46%. Paid weekly claims rose 35% and the payment per weekly claim about 8%. Expenses exceeded revenue in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025.

Limit: The measures cover different periods and do not fully split cost growth between more claims and costlier claims. They show more use, not whether any use was improper.

Verify: Paid Family and Medical Leave Program, Final Report 25-01 Actuarial Annual Report for Paid Family and Medical Leave, November 2025 What drove costs up Revenue vs. expenses, 2020-2025

5. The old formula looked backward and kept rates low JLARC's audit findings and ESD's own account of the 2024 rate cut, set against ESD's 2020 forecast.

JLARC found that the statutory rate formula does not raise enough to cover program costs. A legislative staff summary of the actuary's report adds that the method considered only prior-period experience, so it could not anticipate growth.

After the state added $200 million to the fund in 2023, the rate fell from 0.80% in 2023 to 0.74% in 2024 while claims kept rising. In 2020, ESD expected rates of 0.4% to 0.6% over the coming decade.

Limit: The 2020 forecast was made in the program's first year of benefits, during a pandemic, and ESD warned it was very uncertain.

Verify: Paid Family and Medical Leave Program, Final Report 25-01 Final Bill Report, 2SSB 5292 (2026) Actuarial Annual Report for Paid Family and Medical Leave, November 2025 Paid Family and Medical Leave Program Annual Report, December 2020

Forecast vs. actual: Paid Leave total premium rate, 2021-2030
Forecast
0.4 to 0.6 percent of wages, by Washington State Employment Security Department,
Actual
1.2 percent of wages (2027 rate) · Paid Leave premium rate by year, 2019-2027
Error (actual minus forecast)
+0.6 percent of wages (+100%) ; outside the forecast range; error from the nearest bound
Note
The forecast covers a decade that is not over, so this compares it with the highest rate set so far. The rate first left the range in 2023 (0.80%).

Stated by Washington State Employment Security Department: If current working assumptions about future program utilization and wage growth hold, program projections show the premium rate to vary between 0.4% and 0.6% over the coming decade. (Annual report to the Legislature, December 2020, )

Source: Washington State Employment Security Department · View in the dataset

6. What 1.2% costs a typical worker Federal wage survey data for Washington multiplied by ESD's 2027 rate and employee share.

Washington's median wage in May 2025 was $62,990. At 1.2%, the premium on that wage is $755.88, and the worker's share (70.7%) is up to $534.41, about $10 a week. An employer with 50 or more workers adds $221.47.

That is $26 more for the worker than in 2026. Under 2019 rules the worker's share would have been $159.57, so it is 3.35 times as much, because the worker's share of the premium also rose, from 63.3% to 70.7%.

Limit: The worker's share is the most an employer may withhold; some employers pay part of it. Workers at employers with fewer than 50 people pay the same share, but no employer share is collected on their wages.

Verify: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Washington, May 2025 Paid Family & Medical Leave premium rate increases to 1.2% in 2027 Paid Family and Medical Leave Program Annual Report, December 2020 What the premium costs workers, 2027

Common questions 10

“The 1.2% rate is triple the program’s starting rate of 0.40% in 2019 and a 6.2% increase from last year.”

Our rating: True

The 2027 rate of 1.2% is exactly three times 2019's 0.40%. The rise from 2026's 1.13% is 6.2%.

See the evidence: The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times the starting rate

“This new rate of 1.2% is also PFML’s current statutory cap — a cap that some lawmakers say they want to bust.”

Our rating: Mostly true

State law caps the rate at 1.20%, and a 2026 law kept the cap. We found no lawmaker on record seeking a higher cap, though ESD has costed a 1.4% rate for legislators.

See the evidence: 1.2% is the most state law allows

“Because even the 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent.”

Our rating: True

The state's actuaries project costs above premiums from 2028 at the cap. The fund would be $353 million short in June 2029 and $992 million short after 2029 premiums are collected.

See the evidence: The state actuary projects deficits at the 1.2% cap

“When the program started, the state expected premiums to stay low.”

Short answer: Yes: 0.4% to 0.6%

In 2020 the Employment Security Department expected the premium to stay between 0.4% and 0.6% of wages over the coming decade. It reached 0.8% in 2023 and will be 1.2% in 2027. ESD said then that its projection was very uncertain, since the program was new and benefits began during a pandemic.

See the evidence: The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times the starting rate

“Employers pay most of the paid leave premium.”

Short answer: No, workers pay up to 71%

Workers pay up to 70.7% of the 2027 premium; employers with 50 or more workers pay 29.3%. Employers with fewer than 50 workers need not pay their share at all, though their workers still pay. An employer may choose to cover some or all of the worker's share.

See the evidence: What 1.2% costs a typical worker

“The paid leave rate is going up 62% in 2027.”

Short answer: No, 6.2%

The 2027 increase is 6.2%, from 1.13% to 1.2%. The Washington Policy Center headline says 6.2%; its web address drops the decimal point, which can make it read as 62. The big jump came a year earlier: 23% from 0.92% to 1.13% in 2026.

See the evidence: The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times the starting rate

“The program is short of money only because premiums were set too low.”

Short answer: Partly

Both premiums and costs played a part. JLARC found the old formula could not keep up, and a 2024 rate cut came as claims kept rising. But use also grew fast: applications rose about 15% a year from 2020 to 2023, and weekly benefits rise with wages.

See the evidence: The old formula looked backward and kept rates low

“Lawmakers have already cut benefits to keep the rate at 1.2%.”

Short answer: No; bills did not advance

Not as of November 2026. In the 2026 session, Sen. Curtis King filed bills to trim benefits, such as pausing growth in the maximum weekly benefit, and one to cut benefits automatically if the fund is projected to run short at 1.2%. They were referred to committee and went no further.

“How much will a typical Washington worker pay in 2027?”

Short answer: About $534 a year

A worker earning Washington's median wage of $62,990 pays up to $534 a year, about $10 a week. That is $26 more than in 2026. Each extra 0.2 points of rate would add about $2 per $1,000 of wages, ESD estimates.

See the evidence: What 1.2% costs a typical worker

“The 0.4% starting rate was a fixed start-up rate, not a measure of what the program would cost.”

Short answer: Fixed for 2019-2020

ESD held the rate at a constant 0.4% for 2019 and 2020, and premiums were collected for a year before benefits began. But ESD then expected rates of only 0.4% to 0.6% for the decade, so the start-up rate was not seen as a placeholder. Tripling from it shows how far costs outran that expectation.

See the evidence: The 2027 rate is 1.2%, three times the starting rate

Conclusion

Every number in the Washington Policy Center's claim checks out against the state's own records. The Employment Security Department (ESD) set the 2027 rate at 1.2%, exactly three times the 0.4% charged from 2019 through 2021. The step from 2026's 1.13% is 6.2%, as the post says, much smaller than the 23% jump the year before.

The solvency point also holds. State law caps the rate at 1.2%, and a 2026 law kept that cap when it switched rate-setting to the actuary in 2028. ESD's actuaries project that once the rate hits the cap, costs grow faster than premiums. Costs would pass premiums in 2028 and reach 118% of premiums in 2029. ESD repeated the outlook to lawmakers in October 2026.

What drove the rise is less disputed than how to fix it. More workers used the program each year, and benefits rise with Washington wages. The legislature's audit office (JLARC) found the old formula did not raise enough, and the method looked only at past results. After a 2023 cash infusion, the rate fell in 2024 just as claims kept climbing. In 2020, ESD expected rates of 0.4% to 0.6% for the whole decade.

Confidence is high because the rates are official and the solvency projection comes from the credentialed actuaries of the agency that runs the program. The main uncertainty is the future: the projection assumes about 10% yearly claims growth, and lawmakers can still raise the cap, cut benefits or add money. We found no lawmaker on record seeking a higher cap, so that part of the post's cap sentence is unshown. We did not check the post's other claims, such as who uses the program most.

How we checked
  1. Defined the claim as the Washington Policy Center's three statements of October 21, 2026: the 2027 rate is triple 2019's and 6.2% above 2026's; 1.2% is the legal cap; and 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent. We rated each exact quote and a combined claim.
  2. Took every rate from the agency that sets it: ESD rate announcements and reports for 2019-2027.
  3. Checked the cap in the statute itself and in the legislative staff report on the 2026 rate-setting law.
  4. Read the solvency projection in ESD's November 2025 actuarial report and checked it against ESD's October 2026 update to lawmakers (same agency, same actuarial work). JLARC's separate January 2025 audit was used for the history and the formula, not for the projection at the cap.
  5. Computed the cost to workers from BLS May 2025 Washington wages, the 2027 rate and the published split, and compared it with ESD's own examples.
  6. Recorded limits: projections are not outcomes, the split applies to larger employers, and the 2020-2023 and 2024-2025 finance figures come from different sources.

Editorial note: This article checks the Washington Policy Center's statements about the 2027 rate, the cap and solvency. It does not check the post's other claims, such as the share of claims from higher-wage workers or whether people without a qualifying need receive benefits. Some readers have described the headline as a 62% increase; the post says 6.2%, which is correct. Whether the program is worth its cost is a value judgment the evidence here does not settle.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: None known.

Sources 18

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. Advocacy group Washington Policy Center. Worker penalty gets steeper in 2027 with PFML’s 6.2% tax-rate increase

    Blog post by Elizabeth New, October 21, 2026: the claims checked.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. A free-market think tank. The author is its Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy; the post argues for benefit cuts or repeal of the payroll tax.

    • WPC says the 2027 rate of 1.2% is triple the 2019 rate and 6.2% above 2026.

      What the source says
      The 1.2% rate is triple the program’s starting rate of 0.40% in 2019 and a 6.2% increase from last year.
      Paragraph after the opening rate statement · Elizabeth New, Washington Policy Center

    • WPC says 1.2% is the statutory cap and some lawmakers want to raise it.

      What the source says
      This new rate of 1.2% is also PFML’s current statutory cap — a cap that some lawmakers say they want to bust.
      Same paragraph · Elizabeth New, Washington Policy Center

    • WPC says even 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent.

      What the source says
      Because even the 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent.
      Paragraph beginning "Why do some leaders" · Elizabeth New, Washington Policy Center
  2. Government Washington State Employment Security Department. Paid Family & Medical Leave premium rate increases to 1.2% in 2027

    ESD news release of October 16, 2026 announcing the 2027 rate and split.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. ESD runs the program and sets the rate each October; this is its official announcement.

    • The 2027 rate is 1.2%, up from 1.13% in 2026.

      What the source says
      The premium rate will be 1.2%. The rate for 2026 is 1.13%.
      List under "Starting Jan. 1, 2027"

    • Workers pay 70.7% of the 2027 premium and employers 29.3%.

      What the source says
      Employers will pay 29.3% of the total premium and employees will pay 70.7%.
      List under "Starting Jan. 1, 2027"

    • Qualifies: Employers with fewer than 50 workers need not pay the employer share; their workers still pay.

      What the source says
      Businesses classified by Employment Security as having fewer than 50 employees are not required to pay the employer portion of the premium, unless they opt to do so.
      Paragraph on small businesses
  3. Government Washington State Employment Security Department. Paid Family & Medical Leave premium rate increases to 1.13% in 2026

    ESD news release of October 29, 2025 announcing the 2026 rate.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. ESD's official rate announcement for 2026.

    • The 2026 rate is 1.13%, up from 0.92% in 2025.

      What the source says
      The premium rate will be 1.13%. The rate for 2025 is 0.92%.
      List under "Starting Jan. 1, 2026"
  4. Government Washington State Employment Security Department. Paid Family and Medical Leave Program Annual Report, December 2020

    ESD's annual report to the Legislature in the program's first year of benefits.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Written by the agency running the program; its forecast was made with one year of benefit data.

    • The premium was 0.4% of wages in 2019 and 2020.

      What the source says
      For 2019 and 2020, the total premium was set at a constant 0.4 percent of gross wages.
      Premium rates, p. 8

    • In 2019-2020 large employers paid 36.667% and workers up to 63.333%.

      What the source says
      This translates to employers contributing 36.667 percent and withholding up to 63.333 percent of the total premium from employees.
      Premium rates, p. 8

    • In 2020 ESD expected the rate to stay between 0.4% and 0.6% over the decade, while warning of uncertainty.

      What the source says
      program projections show the premium rate to vary between 0.4% and 0.6% over the coming decade.
      Premium rates, pp. 8-9
  5. Government Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services. Actuarial Annual Report for Paid Family and Medical Leave, November 2025

    The annual actuarial valuation required by RCW 50A.05.050, with data through June 30, 2025.

    Reliability: Signed by two credentialed actuaries in ESD. It reports a solvency problem in the program its own agency runs, which is against the agency's interest.

    • The actuary projects the rate reaches the 1.20% legal maximum from 2027.

      What the source says
      Rates calculated in 2027 and forward are projected to reach 1.20%, which is the maximum allowed premium rate in the statute
      Executive summary, p. 3

    • The rate needed to stay solvent from 2027 on is above the 1.20% cap.

      What the source says
      The legislative maximum premium rate of 1.20% adds risk to solvency given that the projected adequate rate required for 2027 and later exceeds 1.20%.
      Executive summary, p. 3

    • The account is projected to reach minus $992 million after 2029 premiums are collected.

      What the source says
      Because of the continued inadequate premiums, Employment Security projects a continued decline in the account balance, reaching -$992 million after 2029 premiums are collected.
      Executive summary, p. 4

    • Benefit costs rose from both more claims and higher weekly benefits.

      What the source says
      The increase in benefit payments is attributed to both the increase in the average weekly benefit amount and the escalated number of claims.
      Summary of results, p. 9

    • Qualifies: A 2023 cash injection led the formula to cut the 2024 rate while claims rose.

      What the source says
      This led to a rate decrease from 0.80% to 0.74% in 2024 while claims continued to increase.
      Summary of results, p. 10
  6. Government Washington State Employment Security Department. Paid Leave Solvency and Integrity Report: Preliminary Update (House Labor and Workplace Standards, October 6, 2026)

    Slides ESD presented to a House committee while preparing its solvency report.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Preliminary slides from the agency that runs the program, prepared for a legislatively required solvency report.

    • In October 2026 ESD told lawmakers short-term deficits become a sustained deficit in 2029.

      What the source says
      Short-term deficits will turn into sustained deficit in 2029 as premium stops growing with claims
      Key takeaways slide

    • Qualifies: The projection assumes claims growth slows but stays about 10% a year.

      What the source says
      decreases in the growth rate of claims over time but continue to see 10% annual growth
      Key takeaways slide, actuarial projection

    • ESD estimates a 1.4% rate would cost workers about $2 more per $1,000 of wages than 1.2%.

      What the source says
      Employees will see an additional $2 per for every $1,000 in wages
      Economic impact: 1.2% to 1.4% slide

    • In October 2026 ESD told lawmakers it expects the rate to hit the 1.2% cap from 2027 on.

      What the source says
      Premium rate at 1.13% in 2026 and expect to hit rate cap of 1.2% from 2027 and beyond
      Key takeaways slide, program outlook
  7. Government Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee. Paid Family and Medical Leave Program, Final Report 25-01

    The Legislature's nonpartisan audit of the program, January 2025, with a consulting actuary.

    Reliability: An audit office independent of ESD; it worked with Spring Consulting Group as consulting actuary.

    • Applications grew about 15% a year, from 168,000 in 2020 to 259,000 in 2023.

      What the source says
      Benefit applications increased by an average of 15% each year, rising from 168,000 in 2020 to 259,000 in 2023.
      Executive summary

    • The maximum weekly benefit rose from $1,000 in 2020 to $1,456 in 2024.

      What the source says
      In 2020, the Legislature set the maximum weekly payment at $1,000. Since then, it has grown to $1,456 in 2024.
      Part 1

    • Qualifies: JLARC found the statutory rate formula does not raise enough to cover costs.

      What the source says
      The premium rate formula in statute does not produce enough revenue to cover program expenses.
      Key points

    • Expenses exceeded premium collections in two of the first four years of benefits.

      What the source says
      Since the program began paying benefits in 2020, annual expenses have exceeded premium collections in two out of four years.
      Executive summary, before Figure 2

    • Weekly benefits depend on the worker's wages and the state average weekly wage.

      What the source says
      Benefit payments are based on employee wages and the state’s average weekly wage.
      Executive summary
  8. Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 50A.10.030: Premiums

    The statute that sets the premium, its split and its maximum.

    Reliability: The codified law.

    • State law caps the total premium at 1.20%.

      What the source says
      The total premium rate must not exceed 1.20 percent.
      Subsection (6)(b)(ii)
  9. Government Washington State Senate Committee Services. Final Bill Report, 2SSB 5292 (2026)

    Nonpartisan staff summary of the 2026 law on Paid Leave rate-setting.

    Reliability: Legislative staff summary of the bill as passed.

    • The 2026 law has the commissioner set the rate from the actuary's report, keeps the 1.2% cap, and adds a four-month reserve target in 2030.

      What the source says
      The ESD Commissioner must set the PFML premium rate based on the Office's annual report. The total premium rate must still not exceed 1.2 percent. The annual report must provide for a rate to close the rate collection year with a four-month reserve in 2030
      Summary

    • The 2026 rate-setting law takes effect January 1, 2028.

      What the source says
      Effective: January 1, 2028
      Votes on Final Passage and effective date

    • Qualifies: A $200 million cash injection in 2023 resolved that year's account deficit.

      What the source says
      a $200 million cash injection in 2023 resolved that account deficit
      Background, summary of the 2025 actuarial report

    • Qualifies: The old rate method looked only at prior experience.

      What the source says
      the current regulatory premium rate calculation method only considers prior period experience
      Background, summary of the 2025 actuarial report
  10. Government Washington State Employment Security Department. Paid Leave Advisory Committee Meeting, January 21, 2026

    ESD's list of 2026 Paid Leave bills it was tracking.

    Reliability: ESD's summary of bills before the 2026 Legislature.

    • A 2026 bill would have cut benefits automatically to hold the rate at 1.2% if insolvency were projected.

      What the source says
      Initiates benefit reductions to maintain a 1.2% premium rate in the event insolvency is projected.
      Slide 11, SB 6140
  11. Government Washington State Legislature. SB 6141 - 2025-26: bill summary and history

    Bill page for Sen. Curtis King's 2026 bill to limit growth of the maximum weekly benefit.

    Reliability: The Legislature's official bill status page.

    • The bill to limit benefit growth was referred to committee and had no further action.

      What the source says
      First reading, referred to Labor & Commerce.
      Bill history, 2026 Regular Session
  12. Government U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Washington, May 2025

    Federal survey estimates of wages by occupation for Washington state.

    Reliability: A federal survey of employers; wages exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses.

    • Washington's median annual wage for all occupations was $62,990 in May 2025.

      What the source says
      $62,990
      All Occupations (00-0000) row, annual median wage column
  13. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Paid Leave premium rate by year, 2019-2027

    Saved analysis in the FactHub dataset built for this article; every input is typed in with its source in build.js.

    • The rate went 0.40% (2019-2021), 0.60%, 0.80%, 0.74%, 0.92%, 1.13% and 1.20% (2027).

  14. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Checking the tripling and the 6.2% increase

    Saved analysis in the FactHub dataset built for this article; every input is typed in with its source in build.js.

    • 1.20% is 3.0 times 0.40%; the 2027 increase is 6.2% (0.07 points), after 22.8% in 2026.

  15. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. What the premium costs workers, 2027

    Saved analysis in the FactHub dataset built for this article; every input is typed in with its source in build.js.

    • At the $62,990 median wage the 2027 worker share is up to $534.41, $25.98 more than 2026 and 3.35 times 2019 rules.

  16. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Projected premiums vs. costs at the 1.2% cap

    Saved analysis in the FactHub dataset built for this article; every input is typed in with its source in build.js.

    • At the cap, projected costs are 98%, 107% and 118% of premiums in 2027-2029, exceeding them by $240 million and about $595 million in 2028-2029; the account ends June 2029 at -$353 million.

  17. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Revenue vs. expenses, 2020-2025

    Saved analysis in the FactHub dataset built for this article; every input is typed in with its source in build.js.

    • Expenses exceeded revenue in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025, and grew from $665 million in 2020 to $2,144 million in 2025.

  18. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. What drove costs up

    Saved analysis in the FactHub dataset built for this article; every input is typed in with its source in build.js.

    • January benefit payments rose 46% from 2023 to 2025: paid weekly claims rose 35% and the payment per weekly claim about 8%.

  19. FactHub dataset Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave premiums and solvency, 2019-2029

    • Tables: premium-rates, worker-premium-cost, actuarial-pricing-projection, account-balance-projection, revenue-expenses-history, cost-drivers

      All tables; saved analysis rate-arithmetic

    • The 1.2% rate is triple the program’s starting rate of 0.40% in 2019 and a 6.2% increase from last year.
      Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center, · In the dataset
    • This new rate of 1.2% is also PFML’s current statutory cap — a cap that some lawmakers say they want to bust.
      Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center, · In the dataset
    • Why do some leaders want workers giving even more of their wages to the program? Because even the 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent.
      Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center, · In the dataset

    • Scope: Entire dataset release

      Forecast esd-2020-rate-forecast

  20. FactHub chart wa-paid-leave-premium-rate-2019-2027
  21. FactHub chart wa-paid-leave-premiums-vs-costs-2026-2029

Update history 3 changes, last

  1. First version.
  2. Before publication: added source quotes for the cost ratios, the $200 million injection, the backward-looking formula, the 2028 effective date and the wage-linked benefit; narrowed the claim that a separate audit confirmed the projection; added a question on the 0.4% starting rate.
  3. Before publication: rated the cap sentence Mostly true because no lawmaker was found on record seeking a higher cap; fixed attribution of the backward-looking formula; dated the $992 million shortfall as in the source; dropped an unquoted ESD example.

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