What drove costs up

What this dataset measures

Built to check the Washington Policy Center's October 2026 claims that the 2027 premium of 1.2% is triple the 2019 rate, a 6.2% increase over 2026, the legal maximum, and still not enough to keep the program solvent. Rates come from the Employment Security Department (ESD), which sets them; the solvency projection comes from ESD's Office of Actuarial Services; the cost history comes from both ESD and the Legislature's audit office (JLARC).

Geography

Washington, United States

Unit of observation

A premium year (premium-rates); a premium year and wage level (worker-premium-cost); a projected calendar year (actuarial-pricing-projection) or fiscal year (account-balance-projection); a year of program finances (revenue-expenses-history); a cost measure (cost-drivers).

Update cadence

Revise each October when ESD sets the next year's rate, and each November when the annual actuarial report is published.

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• results.json Derived table · application/json · 9.6 KB (9,814 bytes)

  Every table and chart row as JSON; the saved analyses read from this file.

• build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 7.9 KB (8,082 bytes)

  Node.js script holding every input number with its source and computing every derived value.

Saved analyses

Sources

1. Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New) The claims checked: the 2027 rate is triple the 2019 rate, a 6.2% increase, the statutory cap, and not projected to keep the program solvent.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved (quoted for commentary). Short quotes only; linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. A free-market think tank in Washington state. The author is its Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy and calls for repealing the Paid Leave payroll tax in the same article.

2. Washington State Employment Security Department 2027 premium rate (1.2%) and split (employers 29.3%, employees 70.7%); claims and benefits in the first nine months of 2026; small-employer exemption.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. ESD runs the Paid Leave program and sets the rate each October. This is its official rate announcement of October 16, 2026.

3. Washington State Employment Security Department 2026 premium rate (1.13%), 2025 rate (0.92%) and 2026 split (employers 28.57%, employees 71.43%).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. ESD's official rate announcement of October 29, 2025.

4. Washington State Employment Security Department 2019 and 2020 premium rate (0.4%) and split (employers 36.667%, employees up to 63.333%); the 2020 forecast that rates would stay between 0.4% and 0.6% over the coming decade.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. ESD's December 2020 annual report to the Legislature on the program, written in its first year of benefits.

5. Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services Rate history 2021-2025 (Figure 4); projected rates (Figure 6); fiscal-year account projection (Figure 7); 2024-2025 income statement (Figure 8); calendar-year pricing projection (Figure 17); claim and benefit trends.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The annual actuarial valuation required by RCW 50A.05.050, signed by two credentialed actuaries (FSA, FCAS) in ESD's Office of Actuarial Services. Data through June 30, 2025; published November 2025.

6. Washington State Employment Security Department October 6, 2026 preliminary update to the House Labor and Workplace Standards Committee: cap reached in 2027, sustained deficit from 2029, worker and employer cost at 1.2% and 1.4%.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Slides ESD presented to a legislative committee while preparing its Paid Leave solvency report, due November 1, 2026. Labeled preliminary.

7. Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee (JLARC) Revenue and expenses 2020-2023 (Figure 2); growth in applications and weekly benefits since 2020; finding that the rate formula does not produce enough revenue.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The Legislature's nonpartisan audit office, independent of ESD. Its final report on the program, with a consulting actuary (Spring Consulting Group).

8. Washington State Legislature Statutory premium formula, the 1.20% maximum, and the employee and employer shares; version effective January 1, 2028 under 2026 c 104.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Revised Code of Washington). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The codified statute that governs the premium.

9. Washington State Senate Committee Services Final bill report for 2SSB 5292 (2026): actuarial rate-setting from 2028, the 1.2% maximum kept, four-month reserve target in 2030.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative staff summary of the bill as enacted.

10. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington all-occupation annual wages, May 2025: 10th percentile $38,670; 25th $47,020; median $62,990; mean $83,330; 75th $101,710; 90th $153,630; employment 3,550,970.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Free to redistribute with attribution to BLS.

    Reliability: Government. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, a federal survey of employers. Wages are straight-time gross pay and exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses.

Limitations and reproducibility

Fully reproducible: build.js (Node.js, no dependencies) holds every input number with the source and table it comes from, and computes every derived column and saved-analysis result. No data is fetched or estimated by FactHub.

• Premium rates apply to wages up to the Social Security wage base, not all wages. A worker earning above that base pays a smaller share of total pay.
• The employee and employer shares apply to employers with 50 or more employees. Employers with fewer than 50 employees need not pay the employer share; their workers still pay the employee share, so less in total is collected on those wages.
• The employee share is the most an employer may withhold. An employer may choose to pay some or all of it.
• The split between employees and employers is shown only for years where an Employment Security Department document in the sources states it (2019, 2020, 2026, 2027).
• The solvency figures are projections made in November 2025 from data through June 30, 2025. They assume claims keep growing about 10% a year; actual results will differ, and the actuary says the uncertainty grows with time.
• The November 2025 projection predates a 2026 law (2SSB 5292) that replaces the rate formula with actuarial rate-setting from 2028. That law keeps the 1.2% maximum, so it cannot raise premium revenue above the projected path.
• Revenue and expenses for 2020-2023 come from JLARC's state-accounting figures and for 2024-2025 from the actuary's adjusted, unaudited statements. The two use similar but not identical definitions; JLARC does not say whether its years are fiscal or calendar.
• The worker cost table uses May 2025 wages for every year so that only the rate and split change. It is not a record of what any worker paid in 2019.