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Change in girls' sports participation, law states minus no-law states

Difference-in-differences estimates of the change in high school sports participation per 1,000 residents aged 14-17, states with laws limiting girls' teams to female students minus states without, with 95% confidence intervals: across specifications, controlling for each state's starting rate, from a 2021-22 base, for boys, and for the years before any law.

Credit: FactHub Research Team, from NFHS High School Athletics Participation Surveys and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

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Point chart with 95% intervals. Main estimate, 2018-19 to 2025-26: +46 per 1,000 (8 to 84). Ending 2024-25: +47 (19 to 75). Without flag football and wrestling: +41 (3 to 78). Without questionable NFHS figures: +39 (17 to 61). Without court-blocked laws: +47 (7 to 87). Controlling for starting rate: +39.5 (-0.5 to 79.5). 2022-23 laws measured from 2021-22: -12.6 (-72.7 to 47.6). Placebo before any law, 2015-16 to 2018-19: -16 (-38 to 6). Boys: +22 (-15 to 59).

Hover over the chart or focus a point to inspect its values.

Measured from 2018-19, girls' participation per 1,000 rose more in law states than in no-law states in every specification, by 39 to 47 participants per 1,000 girls, but the intervals do not all stay above zero. Controlling for each state's lower starting rate gives +39.5 with an interval that just reaches zero (-0.5 to 79.5), and measured from 2021-22, the first post-pandemic survey, the 2022-23 law states only kept pace (-12.6, interval -72.7 to 47.6). Before any law, the future law states were not gaining faster (-16, interval -38 to +6). Boys also rose more in law states (+22), with an interval that includes zero.

What this chart asks

After states passed laws limiting girls' teams to female students, did girls' participation per 1,000 girls change differently than in states without such laws, and how sure can we be?

Why it is shown this way

  • Points with 95% confidence intervals show each estimate and its uncertainty side by side; a zero line marks no difference.
  • The placebo row (before any law) and the boys row are included so readers can judge whether the girls' gap is a pre-existing trend or a general rise in law states.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

No difference between law and no-law states
Threshold: 0

Why this is marked: Reference line at zero so readers can see which intervals exclude no difference.

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset girls-hs-sports-participation-by-state, analysis did-specs-compared

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Girls' and boys' high school sports participation by state, 2015-16 to 2025-26, with state sports-eligibility laws

  1. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2015-16 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2015-16

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  2. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2016-17 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2016-17

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  3. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2017-18 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2017-18

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  4. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2018-19 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2018-19, plus girls' wrestling and flag football by state

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  5. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2021-22 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2021-22

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  6. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2022-23 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2022-23

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  7. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2023-24 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2023-24

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  8. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2024-25 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2024-25, plus girls' wrestling and flag football by state

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  9. NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey, 2025-26 Participation counts by state and sex (Totals by State table) for 2025-26, plus girls' wrestling and flag football by state

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; factual figures used with attribution. Derived state totals republished with attribution; the PDF itself is linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. The National Federation of State High School Associations compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. A student in two sports counts twice. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

  10. NFHS news release (August 2026): Led by Girls Flag Football and Girls Wrestling, High School Sports Participation Increases for Fifth Consecutive Year National 2025-26 totals and the growth of girls' flag football and wrestling

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. NFHS copyright; quoted with attribution. Linked, not hosted.

    Reliability: Other. Has a stake in this finding. NFHS promotes high school sports and reports on its own survey; its framing of growth is promotional, but the figures match the survey tables.

  11. U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Civilian Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for States, 2010-2019 (SC-EST2019-AGESEX-CIV) July 1, 2015-2018 civilian population ages 14-17 by sex and state (denominators for 2015-16 to 2018-19) Free copy

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Aggregates republished.

    Reliability: Government. Census Bureau population estimates (Vintage 2019), built from the 2010 Census plus births, deaths and migration.

  12. U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Civilian Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States and States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025 (SC-EST2025-AGESEX-CIV) July 1, 2021-2025 civilian population ages 14-17 by sex and state (denominators for 2021-22 to 2025-26) Free copy

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Aggregates republished.

    Reliability: Government. Census Bureau population estimates (Vintage 2025), built on the 2020 Census base; not strictly continuous with Vintage 2019.

  13. Idaho Legislature, House Bill 500 (2020), Fairness in Women's Sports Act: bill status Idaho enactment date (signed March 30, 2020; effective July 1, 2020)

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public government record. Linked.

    Reliability: Government. Official legislative status page; the page notes status updates are unofficial until the journal.

  14. NPR, Tennessee Becomes 3rd State This Month To Enact Restrictions For Transgender Athletes (March 27, 2021) Enactment dates for the Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee laws

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. News report; cited. Linked.

    Reliability: News report. National news report written at the time of signing.

  15. ESPN, Transgender athlete laws by state: Legislation, science, more (August 2023) State-by-state bill numbers and enactment dates for laws enacted 2020-2023, and court blocks

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. News report; cited. Linked.

    Reliability: News report. State-by-state tracker compiled by ESPN reporters; dated August 2023, so it predates the 2024-2025 laws.

  16. Trans Athlete (transathlete.com), state policy tracker, Take Action page Wyoming enactment date; Alaska and Virginia listed as policy, not law; count of 29 states

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Advocacy page; cited. Linked.

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Maintained by an advocate for transgender athletes' inclusion, which opposes these laws; used only for dates and classifications.

  17. Axios Columbus, Ohio bill restricting trans health care to take effect in 90 days (January 24, 2024) Ohio HB 68 veto override date

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. News report; cited. Linked.

    Reliability: News report. Local news report on the Senate override vote.

  18. New Hampshire Bulletin, Sununu signs bans on trans girls in girls' sports, gender affirming surgeries for minors (July 19, 2024) New Hampshire HB 1205 signing date

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. News report; cited. Linked.

    Reliability: News report. Nonprofit state news outlet reporting the signing.

  19. Office of Governor Jim Pillen, Governor Pillen Signs the Stand With Women Act (June 4, 2025) Nebraska LB 89 signing date

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public government record. Linked.

    Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Press release from the governor who signed the law.

  20. Nebraska Legislature, LB 89 (2025), Stand With Women Act, slip law Nebraska requirement that every athlete give a doctor-signed document confirming sex

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public government record. Linked.

    Reliability: Government. Official slip law published by the Nebraska Legislature.

  21. Oklahoma Legislature, SB 2 (2022), enrolled Oklahoma requirement of an annual parent affidavit of sex for every athlete

    Retrieved October 23, 2026. Public government record. Linked.

    Reliability: Government. Enrolled bill text published by the Oklahoma Legislature.

Limitations

  • Each estimate compares state-level changes and treats states as independent observations; it does not model reporting error within states.
  • Observational: a positive estimate means girls' participation grew more in law states, not that the laws caused it.
  • Rows overlap in data; they are robustness checks of one comparison, not independent replications.
  • The boys row is per 1,000 boys aged 14-17; all others are per 1,000 girls aged 14-17.
  • Rows use different base years and controls; the catch-up row adds a control for each state's 2018-19 rate, and the 2021-22-base row covers only the 10 states whose laws took effect in 2022-23.

Articles and datasets using this chart

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this chart each cites.

  • Article girls-sports-participation-after-state-laws — version 6 (published) cites version 2
  • Briefing wa-i-638 — version 5 (published) cites version 2
  • Briefing wa-i-638 — version 4 (published) cites version 2