Girls' sports participation rose in states that passed laws like I-638.

Five-second answer

True. Girls' participation per 1,000 rose 8.6% in 24 law states from 2018-19 to 2025-26, after a pandemic dip. NFHS counts and Census estimates show girls' participation per 1,000 girls in the 24 law states rose from 370.1 in 2018-19 to 401.8 in 2025-26 and rose in 20 of them while states without such laws held flat; how much of that is faster growth rather than catch-up is less certain.

One-minute summary

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Common questions

Conclusion

The question behind the No campaign's heading is whether laws like I-638 lead fewer girls to play high school sports. Twenty-four states have had such laws in force for two to five seasons, which makes it testable for the part of I-638 those states share: the rule that only female students compete on girls' teams. On that question the participation data point one way. In those 24 states, girls' participation per 1,000 girls aged 14-17 rose from 370.1 in 2018-19, the last survey before the laws, to 401.8 in 2025-26 (+8.6%), and it rose in 20 of the 24 states. In the 22 jurisdictions without a law or statewide policy it went from 453.4 to 452.7. Measured state by state, girls' participation grew 46 per 1,000 more in the law states (95% confidence interval 8 to 84). That gap holds when the comparison ends a year earlier, when girls' flag football and wrestling are left out, when 13 jurisdictions with suspect NFHS figures are dropped, and when the three states whose laws were blocked in court are dropped. Before any law existed (2015-16 to 2018-19) the same states were not gaining faster than the others. Three things temper that. First, the rise came late: by 2023-24 only 9 of the 24 law states were above their 2018-19 rate, and much of the gain arrived in 2025-26, a year with several erratic state reports. Second, the law states started lower (370 vs 453 per 1,000), and since the pandemic, states that started lower have gained more; controlling for each state's starting rate, the gap shrinks to +39.5 per 1,000 with an interval that just reaches zero (-0.5 to 79.5), or +40.8 (13.5 to 68.1) ending in 2024-25. The placebo test does not settle this, because the catch-up pattern appears only after the pandemic. Third, measured from 2021-22, the first post-pandemic survey, the ten 2022-23 law states gained about as much as states without laws (-12.6, interval -72.7 to 47.6), though no-law states were then recovering from a deeper pandemic dip. Boys' participation also rose more in law states. We rate the claim True because girls' participation did rise in these states by every measure from the pre-pandemic base, and moderate confidence because how much of the rise is faster growth rather than recovery and catch-up is uncertain. The data do not show the laws caused any of it. The No campaign's heading also rests on I-638's verification rule. Section 3(2) would require every girl entering girls-only competition to bring a statement from her own provider verifying her sex, relying only on anatomy, genetics or testosterone. That is the one part no state has tested. Idaho's law uses the same three bases, but only to settle a dispute about a particular student, and it was blocked in court for most of the period. Three states require proof of sex from every athlete in other forms, and their numbers are small and mixed: girls' participation rose in Nebraska's first year under a doctor-signed document for every athlete; in Oklahoma, under an annual parent affidavit, it rose from 2018-19 but was flat from 2021-22 while boys' grew; in New Hampshire, under a birth-certificate rule, it dipped slightly while boys' fell more. We found no school or youth sports body anywhere that verifies every girl through a provider and publishes participation data; World Athletics' gene test applies only to elite competition. So the heading's forecast about the verification step can be neither confirmed nor ruled out. What the evidence does say is that the team rule itself has not been followed by fewer girls playing in other states. We therefore rate the heading itself Misleading, with moderate confidence: it states as settled that the measure discourages girls from playing, when the part other states share has been followed by more girls playing, under Washington's current rules the documented cases are girls who forfeited rather than compete against male-born athletes, and the one untested step cannot carry a flat claim. Statewide counts also miss individual choices. Some girls have forfeited rather than race or wrestle against transgender girls, in Washington this season and in college volleyball in 2024, and a girl who forfeits still counts as a participant. Those cases matter to the girls involved and to the fairness debate, but they cannot show whether participation rises or falls across a state. The mirror-image fear, that inclusive policies drive girls out of sports, is not borne out in the population data either: an earlier analysis found girls' participation rising in most states before most laws, whatever their policy.

Related fact checks

• Related claim: After puberty, boys outrun, outjump and outswim girls by roughly 10-30%. — After puberty, males outperform females by about 7-15% in running and swimming, 18-28% in jumping, and more in strength: the reason girls' categories exist.
• Related claim: The Yes campaign's 269 girls'-event placements check out, from ten athletes. — FactHub rates the Yes campaign's count of 269 placements Mostly true: the Yes campaign's 269 girls'-event placements check out, from ten athletes. That check rates the No side's '5 - 10 trans girls' sentence Misleading.
• Related claim: Initiative 638 requires a doctor's sex verification, not a genital exam. — FactHub rates the claim that I-638 will require genital examinations False (high confidence): Initiative 638 requires a doctor's sex verification, not a genital exam. This links to the version that was current when this fact check was written. Read the latest version.
• Related claim: Most state girls'-sports laws reach further than I-638, except in verifying every girl. — FactHub rates the No claim that I-638 is the most extreme proposal of its kind Misleading: most state girls'-sports laws reach further than I-638, except in verifying every girl.
• Related claim: Under I-638, a birth certificate alone can't prove a girl's sex for sports. — FactHub rates the No claim that I-638 bans parents from using birth certificates Misleading: under I-638, a birth certificate alone can't prove a girl's sex for sports, but the text never mentions birth certificates.
• Related claim: Pediatric checkups already document sex, though many Washington girls lack a regular provider. — FactHub rates the Yes claim that standard pediatric care already verifies sex Mostly true: pediatric checkups already document sex, though many Washington girls lack a regular provider.
• Related claim: Washington's rules let transgender girls compete in girls' school sports. — FactHub rates the Yes claim that Washington currently allows males to compete against girls True (high confidence): Washington's rules let transgender girls compete in girls' school sports.
• Related claim: The IOC, World Athletics, the WTA and federal policy now restrict the female category. — FactHub rates the Yes claim that federal law, the WTA, World Athletics and the IOC protect the female category Mostly true: the IOC, World Athletics, the WTA and federal policy now restrict the female category, though no federal statute requires it.

How we checked

1. Defined the claim: whether girls' high school sports participation fell, per 1,000 girls aged 14-17, in states after their laws limiting girls' teams to female students took effect, compared with states without such laws.
2. Read the No campaign's statement in the statewide voters' pamphlet and took both rated sentences verbatim from it.
3. Downloaded the NFHS High School Athletics Participation Survey for every year from 2015-16 to 2025-26 (no survey exists for 2019-20 or 2020-21) and extracted the Totals by State table, checking that state totals sum to the national totals.
4. Extracted girls' flag football and wrestling by state for 2018-19, 2024-25 and 2025-26 and checked each column against the NFHS national total.
5. Joined Census Bureau civilian population estimates for ages 14-17 by sex and state (July 1 of each school year's first calendar year).
6. Dated each state law from state legislative records, news trackers (ESPN, NPR and others) and a governor's press release, and grouped states: 24 with laws first in force from 2021-22 to 2023-24, 22 jurisdictions with no law or statewide policy, and five left out (three later laws; Alaska and Virginia, which act by policy).
7. Computed each state's change from 2018-19 to 2025-26 and the difference between groups, with 95% intervals treating states as the unit; ran a placebo test on 2015-16 to 2018-19 and sensitivity checks for end year, new sports, data quality, court-blocked laws and population weighting; repeated for boys and for girls' share.
8. Checked for catch-up by controlling for each state's starting rate, re-measured the 2022-23 laws from 2021-22, and recorded the year in which each law state passed its 2018-19 rate.
9. Compared girls' participation before and after in the three states that require proof of sex from every athlete (Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma), and searched for any school or youth sports body that verifies every girl through a provider and publishes participation data.
10. Documented forfeits by girls who chose not to compete against transgender girls from news reports and court filings, naming no minors.
11. Compared the verification rule in I-638 Section 3(2) with Idaho's statute, the only state law using the same three bases.
12. Published every number, script and table in the FactHub dataset so the analysis can be rerun, and recorded the limits of each line of evidence.

Editorial note: Scope: this article tests whether girls' high school sports participation fell in states after laws limiting girls' teams to female students, using NFHS and Census data, and answers two sentences from the No campaign's voters' pamphlet statement. It does not evaluate fairness, safety, the number of transgender athletes affected (see the companion check of girls' event placements), or the cost or experience of I-638's verification requirement. Minors are not named; forfeit cases are described by school, event and date only. The analysis is ours; the dataset and scripts are published so anyone can rerun it. FactHub takes no position on I-638. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

1. Other National Federation of State High School Associations. 2025-26 High School Athletics Participation Survey

   The NFHS survey of participation by sport, sex and state for the 2025-26 school year, with a national history table back to 1971-72.

   Reliability: NFHS compiles counts reported by its 51 member state associations. The survey takes no position on state eligibility laws.

   • Qualifies: NFHS has no participation data for 2019-20 or 2020-21 because of the pandemic.

     What the source says

     Data unavailable due to COVID-19 pandemic.

     Participation history table, 2019-20 and 2020-21 rows

   • Qualifies: NFHS counts a student once for each sport, so totals are participation entries rather than individual students.

     What the source says

     Reflects participation rate, i.e., individual who participated in two sports is counted twice

     Summary of Athletics Participation, Totals by State, footnote 1
2. Other National Federation of State High School Associations. 2018-19 High School Athletics Participation Survey

   The last NFHS survey before the pandemic and before most of the state laws, used as the baseline year.

   Reliability: Same survey and method as later years; state counts are reported by each state association.

   • The 2018-19 survey gives each state's boys' and girls' totals, the baseline for our before-and-after comparison.

     What the source says

     TOTALS BY STATE

     Summary of Athletics Participation (Data from 2018-19 school year), p. 56
3. Other National Federation of State High School Associations. Led by Girls Flag Football and Girls Wrestling, High School Sports Participation Increases for Fifth Consecutive Year (2026)

   NFHS news release on the 2025-26 survey.

   Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. NFHS promotes high school sports and reports on its own survey; its figures match the survey tables.

   • National girls' participation reached a record 3,654,589 in 2025-26.

     What the source says

     The total includes 4,761,095 boys and 3,654,589 girls – both record highs

     Second paragraph

   • Qualifies: Girls' flag football grew from 15,716 participants in 2021-22 to 102,360 in 2025-26, a possible confounder.

     What the source says

     In the first post-pandemic survey in 2021-22, there were 15,716 girls participating in flag football nationally. That number has now ballooned to 102,360

     Third paragraph
4. Government U.S. Census Bureau. State Population by Characteristics: 2020-2025 (datasets page)

   Census Bureau population estimates by single year of age and sex for each state, used as per-capita denominators.

   Reliability: Official population estimates built from the 2020 Census base plus births, deaths and migration; the 2015-2018 denominators come from the earlier Vintage 2019 series.

   • Census publishes civilian population by single year of age and sex for each state, which gives the number of girls and boys aged 14-17.

     What the source says

     Annual Estimates of the Civilian Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States and States

     Datasets, Single Year of Age and Sex
5. Government Washington Secretary of State. Initiative Measure No. IL26-638, final filed text

   The full text of the measure on the November 3, 2026 ballot.

   Reliability: Official filed text; the Secretary of State publishes it without comment.

   • Qualifies: I-638 would require every student entering girls-only competition to give, as part of her sports physical, a statement from her own provider verifying her sex.

     What the source says

     shall provide, as part of the required routine sports physical examination, a health examination and consent form or other statement signed by the student's personal health care provider that verifies the student's biological sex

     Section 3(2)
6. Government Idaho Legislature. Idaho Code 33-6203, Designation of athletic teams

   The Idaho statute, first enacted as House Bill 500 in 2020, the first state law of this kind.

   Reliability: Official statute text published by the Idaho Legislature.

   • Qualifies: Idaho uses a provider's verification only to resolve a dispute about a particular student's sex, not for every girl.

     What the source says

     A dispute regarding a student’s sex shall be resolved by the school or institution by requesting that the student provide a health examination and consent form or other statement signed by the student’s personal health care provider that shall verify the student’s biological sex.

     Subsection (3)
7. News report ESPN. Transgender athlete laws by state: Legislation, science, more (August 2023)

   State-by-state tracker of laws on transgender athletes with bill numbers, signing dates and court actions, through August 2023.

   Reliability: Compiled by ESPN reporters; it predates the 2024 and 2025 laws, which we dated from other sources listed in the dataset.

   • By August 2023, 23 states had passed such laws, most of them in 2021-2023, which sets the before-and-after windows.

     What the source says

     Since 2020, 23 states have passed laws restricting transgender athletes' ability to participate in school sports in accordance with their gender identity.

     Introduction

   • Example of a law dated from the tracker: Alabama's HB 391, signed April 23, 2021, first in force for 2021-22.

     What the source says

     On April 23, 2021, Gov. Kay Ivey signed into law HB 391

     Alabama entry
8. News report The 74. National Analysis: They Said Letting Transgender Girls Play Would Drive Athletes Away From HS and College Sports. It Didn't (Beth Hawkins, October 19, 2022)

   A news analysis of NFHS and NCAA participation from 2012-13 to 2018-19 by state policy on transgender athletes.

   Reliability: Nonprofit education news site; the analysis tested the opposite claim (that inclusion drives girls away) using the same NFHS data, before most laws took effect.

   • Qualifies: Before most laws took effect, girls' participation rose in most states whether or not they later restricted transgender athletes.

     What the source says

     Girls’ participation increased in 13 of the states that have enacted trans sports bans and fell in five. Of the states that do not specifically exclude trans kids from sports, 22 saw more girls participate, seven saw fewer and four had no change.

     Body, state comparison

   • Qualifies: Big gains for girls in some states mirrored gains for boys, which researchers tie to sports culture rather than policy.

     What the source says

     These dramatic increases mirror a rise in the number of boys playing high school sports in the same states, which researchers say is likely connected to their sports-centric culture.

     Body, state comparison
9. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: participation per 1,000, law states vs. no-law states

   Pooled girls' and boys' participation per 1,000 residents aged 14-17, by group of states, 2015-16 to 2025-26.

   • Girls per 1,000: law states 370.1 (2018-19) to 401.8 (2025-26); no-law states 453.4 to 452.7.

10. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: change by state, 2018-19 to 2025-26

    Each state's girls' and boys' participation per 1,000 in 2018-19 and 2025-26.

    • Girls per 1,000 fell in 4 of 24 law states (Florida, North Carolina, Louisiana, North Dakota) and in 12 of 22 no-law jurisdictions.

11. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: difference-in-differences, girls per 1,000, 2018-19 to 2025-26

    Law-state minus no-law-state change in girls' participation per 1,000, with its 95% interval and robustness checks.

    • Girls' participation per 1,000 grew 46.0 more in law states than in no-law states (95% CI 8.4 to 83.5).

12. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: placebo test before any law, 2015-16 to 2018-19

    The same comparison for the years before any state had such a law.

    • Before any law, the future law states grew 16.0 per 1,000 less than the others (95% CI -38.2 to 6.2), so the later gap is not an older trend.

13. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: population-weighted comparison

    The comparison using pooled, population-weighted rates with a state bootstrap interval.

    • Qualifies: Weighted by population the gap is smaller, +32.5 per 1,000, with a wide interval (2.0 to 74.7).

14. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: girls' share of all participants

    Change in girls' share of boys' and girls' participation, law states minus no-law states.

    • Girls' share of all participants rose 1.4 points more in law states (95% CI 0.3 to 2.6).

15. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: excluding girls' flag football and wrestling

    The main comparison after removing the two fastest-growing girls' sports.

    • Without flag football and wrestling, girls' participation per 1,000 still grew 40.9 more in law states (95% CI 3.4 to 78.4).

16. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: excluding states with questionable NFHS figures

    The main comparison without 13 jurisdictions whose NFHS totals repeat an earlier year or jump more than 25% in a year.

    • Without the 13 jurisdictions with repeated or erratic NFHS totals, the gap is +39.0 per 1,000 (95% CI 16.8 to 61.1).

17. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: boys per 1,000

    The same comparison for boys.

    • Qualifies: Boys' participation also grew more in law states, +21.9 per 1,000 boys (95% CI -15.3 to 59.1), so part of the girls' gain is a general rise.

18. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: catch-up check controlling for starting rate

    The law-state gap re-estimated with each state's 2018-19 rate as a control.

    • Qualifies: Controlling for each state's starting rate, the law-state gap is +39.5 per 1,000 (95% CI -0.5 to 79.5) ending 2025-26 and +40.8 (13.5 to 68.1) ending 2024-25; lower-rate states gained more after the pandemic.

19. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: 2022-23 laws measured from 2021-22

    The 2022-23 cohort compared from the first post-pandemic survey.

    • Qualifies: From 2021-22, the 2022-23 law states gained +63.3 per 1,000 against +75.9 in no-law states (difference -12.6, CI -72.7 to 47.6).

20. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: when the rise happened

    How many law states were above their 2018-19 rate each year, and pooled rates.

    • Qualifies: Law states above their 2018-19 rate: 9 of 24 in 2023-24, 16 in 2024-25, 20 in 2025-26; pooled law-state rate 366.6 in 2023-24 against 370.1 in 2018-19.

21. FactHub record FactHub Research Team. Saved analysis: states that require proof of sex from every athlete

    Nebraska, New Hampshire and Oklahoma, before and after their laws.

    • Qualifies: Girls per 1,000: Nebraska +21.2 in year one (no-law median +10.1); New Hampshire -8.9 (median +30.1, boys -17.5); Oklahoma +31.8 from 2018-19 but +0.2 from 2021-22 (median +57.2).

22. Government Nebraska Legislature. LB 89 (2025), Stand With Women Act, slip law

    Nebraska's 2025 law, which requires every athlete on a boys' or girls' team to give the school a doctor-signed document confirming sex.

    Reliability: Official slip law published by the Nebraska Legislature; effective September 3, 2025.

    • Qualifies: Nebraska requires every athlete to give the school a doctor-signed document confirming sex, without naming a medical basis.

      What the source says

      a student shall provide to such school or postsecondary educational institution confirmation of such student's sex on a document signed by a doctor or signed under the authority of a doctor.

      Sec. 4(5)
23. Government Oklahoma Legislature. SB 2 (2022), enrolled

    Oklahoma's 2022 Save Women's Sports Act.

    Reliability: Enrolled bill text published by the Oklahoma Legislature.

    • Qualifies: Oklahoma requires a yearly parent affidavit of sex at birth for every athlete.

      What the source says

      Prior to the beginning of each school year, the parent or legal guardian of a student who competes on a school athletic team shall sign an affidavit acknowledging the biological sex of the student at birth.

      Sec. 1(D)
24. News report New Hampshire Bulletin. Sununu signs bans on trans girls in girls' sports, gender affirming surgeries for minors (July 19, 2024)

    Report on New Hampshire's HB 1205, which bars transgender girls from girls' teams in grades 5-12 and requires proof of sex.

    Reliability: Nonprofit state news outlet reporting the signing and summarizing the law.

    • Qualifies: New Hampshire's law requires students to verify sex with a birth certificate, or other evidence if the certificate does not show sex at birth.

      What the source says

      And it requires students to verify their sex by producing a birth certificate that demonstrates their biological sex “at or near the time of the student’s birth.”

      Body
25. Other World Athletics. World Athletics introduces SRY gene test for athletes wishing to compete in the female category (press release, July 30, 2025)

    World Athletics' rule requiring a one-time gene test for its female category.

    Reliability: The international governing body for track and field, stating its own rule; it has no role in the Washington measure.

    • Qualifies: Universal sex screening exists in elite sport: World Athletics requires a one-time gene test for its female category at world championships.

      What the source says

      All athletes wishing to compete in the female category at the World Championships are required to undergo a once-in-a-lifetime test for the SRY gene – a reliable proxy for determining biological sex.

      Third paragraph
26. News report Marathon Handbook. Camas Girls Walk Off Race Over Transgender Teammate (Jessy Carveth, October 17, 2026)

    Running-news report on two walkouts by girls at southwest Washington cross-country meets in 2026.

    Reliability: Running news and coaching site; it does not name the transgender runner, a minor. Counts of runners vary between reports.

    • Qualifies: About a dozen Camas High School runners left the course at a dual meet in October 2026, forfeiting the race to protest a transgender teammate.

      What the source says

      About a dozen of its runners walked roughly 50 meters and then left the course, forfeiting the race to protest a transgender teammate

      Second paragraph

    • Qualifies: Two Skyview High School runners stepped off the course at a meet against Camas on September 15, 2026.

      What the source says

      Tuesday’s was the second walkout of the season, after two Skyview High School runners stepped off the course at a meet against Camas on Sept. 15.

      Body
27. News report OPB (KUOW). Protest in Southwest Washington against trans runner on girls cross-country team goes viral (October 19, 2026)

    Public radio report on the Camas walkout, with a coach who supports the No campaign.

    Reliability: KUOW story republished by OPB; it does not name the runner, a minor.

    • Qualifies: A former Washington cross-country coach who supports the No campaign said he coached transgender runners and never saw walkoffs or pushback.

      What the source says

      He added that he has coached trans runners on cross-country teams with cisgender students and he never encountered walkoffs or pushback.

      Body, after quote from John Gallagher · John Gallagher, former high school cross-country coach
28. Party to the dispute Alliance Defending Freedom (counsel for applicants). K.M.K. v. Washington Interscholastic Activities Association, Application No. 26A458 for an injunction pending appeal (October 2, 2026)

    A Washington girls' wrestler's emergency application to the U.S. Supreme Court, quoting her school district's reply to her family.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Filed by the wrestler's lawyers; the district's words are quoted from a lower-court record. The wrestler is a minor identified by initials.

    • Qualifies: The district told the family the only remedy it could offer was letting the wrestler forfeit matches against transgender opponents without district penalty.

      What the source says

      the only remedy the district can offer is that [K.M.K.] would be able to forfeit any such matches without any adverse consequences imposed by the district.

      Statement of the case, quoting 4-ER-781
29. Party to the dispute Puyallup School District. Opposition of Respondent Puyallup School District to Emergency Application for an Injunction Pending Appeal, No. 26A458 (October 13, 2026)

    The school district's reply to the wrestler's application.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Filed by the district, a respondent; it says national wrestling rules, not the district, make a forfeit a loss.

    • Qualifies: The district says it let the wrestler decline any match with no district-imposed penalty; national rules still record a forfeit as a loss.

      What the source says

      The District told Applicants in April that K.M.K. may decline any match with no District-imposed penalty, and Applicants know of two athletes who concern them.

      Argument, part 3
30. Government Supreme Court of the United States. Docket for Application No. 26A458

    Official docket of the wrestling case application.

    Reliability: Official docket; it showed no ruling on the application as of October 23, 2026.

    • Qualifies: The application was submitted to Justice Kagan on October 2, 2026; the last entry is the applicants' October 15 reply, with no ruling.

      What the source says

      Application (26A458) for an injunction pending appeal, submitted to Justice Kagan.

      Docket entry, Oct 02 2026
31. News report Associated Press (via KSAT). Will Utah State or Boise State forfeit vs. San Jose State in the Mountain West semifinals? (November 26, 2024)

    AP report on the 2024 college volleyball forfeits against San Jose State.

    Reliability: Associated Press story republished by a local station; AP withheld the player's name.

    • Qualifies: Five schools forfeited regular-season volleyball matches against San Jose State in 2024.

      What the source says

      Five schools forfeited matches in the regular season against San Jose State

      Second paragraph

    • Qualifies: Most of the forfeiting schools did not say why they forfeited.

      What the source says

      also canceled regular-season matches, all without explicitly saying why they were forfeiting.

      Body
32. FactHub dataset Girls' and boys' high school sports participation by state, 2015-16 to 2025-26, with state sports-eligibility laws

    • Tables: state-year-participation

      Saved analysis rate-by-group-year

    • Tables: state-year-participation

      Saved analysis did-girls-main and its robustness checks

    • Tables: state-laws

      Table state-laws

    • Tables: state-year-participation

      Saved analysis universal-verification-states

33. FactHub dataset Initiative 638: the campaigns' claims in their own words

    • Vote No Because It Discourages Girls From Playing Sports

      Committee for the argument against Initiative IL26-638 (Justin Gill, APRN, and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument against IL26-638, September 17, 2026 · In the dataset

    • This statewide blanket ban to kick 5 - 10 trans girls off school teams will negatively impact all girls, leaving no room for case by case decisions.

      Committee for the argument against Initiative IL26-638 (Justin Gill, APRN, and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument against IL26-638, September 17, 2026 · In the dataset
34. FactHub chart girls-hs-sports-rate-law-vs-no-law-states
35. FactHub chart girls-sports-participation-did-estimates

Update history

1. October 23, 2026 First version.
2. October 23, 2026 Version 2. Confidence lowered from High to Moderate: added a catch-up check (law states started lower; controlling for starting rate the gap is +39.5, CI -0.5 to 79.5), the 2022-23 laws measured from 2021-22 (-12.6), and the timing of the rise (only 9 of 24 law states above 2018-19 by 2023-24), from dataset version 2. Replaced the No Evidence rating on the No heading with an unrated answer, and added the three states that require proof of sex from every athlete (Nebraska, Oklahoma, New Hampshire). The No '5 - 10' sentence is no longer rated here; the companion placements check rates it. Added documented forfeits (Camas and Skyview cross-country, a Washington wrestler's Supreme Court application, 2024 college volleyball) to the objection about girls leaving sports. Replaced the moved Secretary of State text link and linked the other I-638 fact checks.
3. October 23, 2026 Version 3. Cites dataset version 3 and version 2 of both charts; the estimates chart now shows the catch-up-controlled and 2021-22-base estimates, and its caption no longer implies every interval is above zero. Updated links to the latest versions of the other I-638 fact checks. Claim, rating and text otherwise unchanged.
4. October 23, 2026 Updated related links to the final versions of sibling articles.
5. October 23, 2026 Updated related links to the final versions of sibling articles, and noted that the placements check now rates the No side's '5 - 10 trans girls' sentence Misleading.
6. October 23, 2026 Version 6. Rated the No campaign's voters' pamphlet heading "Vote No Because It Discourages Girls From Playing Sports" Misleading (moderate confidence) as a rated objection that cites the quote in the campaign-statements dataset: in the 24 states with the same team rule, girls' participation rose more than in states without it (part may be catch-up from a lower start); under current rules, girls in documented cases forfeited rather than compete against male-born athletes (Camas, Skyview, a Washington wrestler's district letter, San Jose State volleyball); and the one untested piece, verifying every girl, cannot support the heading's flat claim. The conclusion now states the rating instead of leaving the heading unrated.