JumpStart housing got the 2020 estimate's dollars, not 62% of actual revenue

What this chart asks

Did affordable housing get the 62% share of JumpStart revenue that the 2020-2021 spending plan set?

Why it is shown this way

• Three lines on one dollar scale show that the housing budget tracks 62% of the 2020 revenue estimate almost exactly, while 62% of actual revenue pulls away above it.
• The y axis starts at zero so the gap is shown at true scale.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

2020 estimate extended at 2% a year

2023

The City published its 2020 estimate only for 2021 and 2022.

Why this is marked: The comparison series is a FactHub derivation and must be labeled as such wherever the chart appears.

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset seattle-jumpstart-payroll-tax-uses, analysis housing-vs-plan-series

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Seattle JumpStart payroll expense tax: revenue, forecasts and uses, 2021-2027

1. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2021 Adopted Budget, Revenue Overview: $214.3 million of payroll tax budgeted in the General Fund for 2021

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office. It reports the City's own budget decisions, which this dataset compares with the City's spending plan.

2. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2022 Adopted Budget, Revenue Overview: $233.9 million forecast and $85.4 million transfer to the General Fund

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

3. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2023 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $100.6 million General Fund transfer, $137.6 million housing, $294.1 million forecast

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

4. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2024 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $84.1 million General Fund transfer, $140.2 million housing, $305.7 million forecast plus about $20 million from a rate increase

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

5. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2025 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $304.6 million General Fund support, $136.2 million housing, $541.7 million appropriations

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

6. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2026 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $201 million (47%) General Fund transfer, $143.1 million housing, $429 million appropriations

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

7. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2026 Adopted Budget, General Fund Revenue Overview: 2025 Adopted forecast ($440.5 million, derived as $385.4 million plus $55.1 million) and 2026 forecast ($392.7 million)

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book; payroll tax forecasts come from the City's Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts.

8. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2027-2028 Proposed Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $173 million (38%) General Fund transfer, $65 million for homelessness programs, $142 million housing

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Mayor Katie Wilson's proposed budget, released September 22, 2026; the Council had not adopted it when retrieved.

9. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2027-2028 Proposed Budget, General Fund Revenue Overview: total tax obligations for 2021-2025 and revenue forecasts for 2026-2027

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Proposed budget book; the payroll tax history is the City's most recent published account of collections by tax year.

10. Washington Research Council Policy brief PB 23-03 (June 26, 2023): the July 2020 Council staff estimates of $214 million for 2021 and $219 million for 2022

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. All rights reserved (Washington Research Council); figures cited, not redistributed. Linked only

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. The Washington Research Council is a business-supported, nonpartisan fiscal research group that has criticized the tax's volatility. Its revenue figures come from the City's Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts and Council staff.

11. Seattle City Council Ordinance 126393 (July 2021), which codified the spending plan percentages (62% housing, 15% economic, 9% Equitable Development Initiative, 9% Green New Deal, up to 5% administration) in SMC 5.38.055

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Signed ordinance text from the City Clerk's legislative records.

12. City of Seattle, City Budget Office Summary and fiscal note for Council Bill 120912 (Ordinance 127155, November 2024)

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Speaks against its own interest. Written by the Mayor's budget office to justify loosening the spending plan; its admission that the plan was never followed runs against the City's interest in presenting the tax as dedicated.

13. Office of the Mayor, City of Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan's July 30, 2021 letter returning Council Bill 120118 (Ordinance 126393) unsigned

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Party to the dispute. Durkan opposed restricting the tax's future uses; the letter states her reasons.

14. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2027-2028 Proposed Budget Overview (Mayor Katie Wilson)

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Speaks against its own interest. A progressive mayor's budget acknowledging that JumpStart is still needed to support the General Fund, against her stated goal of returning the money to its original purposes.

Limitations

• The 2020 estimate path after 2022 is a FactHub extension of Council staff's published 2021-2022 estimates at the 2% annual growth they assumed, not a City figure.
• Under the 2021 rules, 62% applied to the fund after any General Fund transfer allowed by the pre-pandemic revenue baseline, so 62% of total revenue is an upper bound in years with a permitted transfer.
• 2026 revenue is the September 2026 revised forecast; amounts are budgeted, not actual spending, and in nominal dollars.