Washington's $1M+ income swings far more than its sales tax or general fund

What this chart asks

How much more does the income Washington's millionaires tax relies on swing from year to year than the revenue the state already collects?

Why it is shown this way

• Lines on one axis show the size of each series' swings side by side; the $1M+ line's drops of 34-45% stand out against revenue lines that rarely move more than 12%.
• Percent change, rather than dollars, puts series of very different size on the same scale.
• Line charts are interactive on FactHub, so readers can hover for each year's value.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

No change

Threshold: 0

Reference line at zero percent change.

Why this is marked: A zero line separates increases from declines.

No WA $1M+ data for 2002-2009

2002–2010

IRS state tables for 2002-2009 top out at $200,000 or more, so no change can be computed for 2002-2010.

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset wa-millionaire-income-irs, analysis agi-vs-revenue-change

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Washington's $1 million-plus earners: IRS income data 1997-2023, revenue volatility and an illustrative back-cast

1. IRS Statistics of Income, Historic Table 2: Individual income and tax data by state and size of adjusted gross income (Washington files, 1997-2023) Washington returns, AGI, wages, net capital gain, partnership/S-corporation and business income by AGI class; the $1M-or-more class for 1997-2001 and 2010-2023, $200,000-or-more for 2002-2009. Each row's file is in the sourceFile column.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain; values restated, files linked.

   Reliability: Government. Compiled by the IRS from individual income tax returns. The 1997-2001 state files are unedited counts of returns processed in each calendar year; later files are tax-year tabulations with counts rounded to the nearest 10 from 2015.

2. IRS Statistics of Income, Table 1.4: All returns, sources of income, by size of adjusted gross income (U.S., 1998-2023) U.S. returns, AGI, wages, net capital gain and pass-through income for AGI of $1M or more, used to show the 2002-2009 years for which no Washington $1M class exists.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain; values restated, files linked.

   Reliability: Government. National sample-based estimates from the IRS individual complete report. Net capital gain and pass-through are FactHub sums of the gain and loss columns, matching the Historic Table 2 U.S. totals within about 1% in 2010-2023.

3. Washington Department of Revenue, Tax Statistics, Table 3: Washington State General Fund Revenues (fiscal years 1998-2024) Retail sales, business and occupation and state property tax revenue to the general fund by fiscal year (GAAP basis, from the state's annual financial report). Each year's file is in the source column.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; files linked.

   Reliability: Government. DOR's annual statistical report restating general fund revenue from the state's audited financial statements. FY2002 and FY2025 come from ERFC cash tables because DOR's tables for those years were not available.

4. Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Revenue Review, September 25, 2026 Total general fund-state collections by fiscal year, FY2005-FY2025 (current definition, cash), and the September 2026 forecast of the individual income tax used as a baseline in the crash scenarios.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. ERFC is the state's official, bipartisan revenue forecasting body. Its forecast is the basis for the budget; it published no separate risk analysis of the new income tax.

5. Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2010 (Table 3.15) Total general fund-state collections (GF-S plus related fund, cash) for fiscal years 1998-2004.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; archived copy linked.

   Reliability: Government. ERFC historical table under the definition used in 2010; it differs from the current definition, so FY1998-2004 totals are not spliced to FY2005 onward for year-over-year change.

6. OFM Fiscal Note Package 77653, ESSB 6346 (2026), tax on income over $1 million The Department of Revenue's estimate of the income tax (FY2030 $3.732B gross), used as the second baseline in the crash scenarios.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Official fiscal note for the enacted bill. It is a static estimate: it states that affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income.

Limitations

• No Washington $1M+ class exists for tax years 2002-2009, so the $1M+ line has a gap from 2002 to 2010 that includes the 2001-02 and 2007-09 downturns.
• AGI is by calendar tax year and revenue by July-June fiscal year; the chart compares the size of swings, not their timing.
• Total general fund revenue for FY2005 is missing because ERFC's series changes definition at that year.
• Revenue changes include tax-law changes as well as the economy.