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The millionaires tax's $1 million line loses value over time

Projected value, in 2026 dollars, of the $1 million standard deduction in Washington's millionaires tax under the law's every-other-year inflation adjustment, compared with adjusting every year, assuming 2.5% inflation.

Credit: FactHub analysis of ESSB 6346 (chapter 238, Laws of 2026)

Node: chart:wa-millionaires-tax-threshold-real-value:2

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Line chart, 2028 to 2050. Adjusted every year, the threshold stays near $952,000 in 2026 dollars. As written, adjusted every other year, it steps down to $906,000 in 2032, $821,000 in 2040 and $725,000 in 2050. — Assuming 2.5% inflation, the $1 million standard deduction is worth $952,000 in 2026 dollars when the tax begins in 2028 under either method. If it were adjusted every year it would stay there. Under the law's formula, which applies one year of inflation every two years, it falls to $821,000 by 2040 and $725,000 by 2050.

What this chart asks

How much is the $1 million threshold worth in today's dollars from 2028 to 2050 under the indexing formula as written?

Why it is shown this way

A line shows the steady, stepwise erosion over two decades.
The every-year series isolates the effect of the every-other-year formula from the 2026-2028 loss that both methods share.
The y-axis starts above zero to make the steps visible; the axis is labeled in dollars and the truncation is disclosed.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

Projection at 2.5% inflation

2028

Values after 2026 are projected, not observed.

Why this is marked: Readers must know every point is a model result under an assumed inflation rate.

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset wa-millionaires-tax-reach, analysis threshold-real-2-5

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Washington millionaires tax: who files over $1 million, how the threshold holds up, and how volatile the base is

IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2022 (22in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2022
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.
IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2021 (21in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2021
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.
IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2020 (20in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2020
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.
IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2019 (19in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2019
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.
IRS SOI Tax Stats - Historic Table 2 (state data documentation) Field definitions for the state files (AGI_STUB 10 = $1,000,000 or more; N1, A00100, A00200, A01000, A26270)
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted

Reliability: Government. IRS documentation of the field codes and AGI classes used in the state data files.
Washington State Legislature, ESSB 6346 as enacted (chapter 238, Laws of 2026) Sections 314 and 316: the $1,000,000 standard deduction and its inflation adjustment; section 1(9): the legislative estimate of who pays
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.
RCW 82.87.150, capital gains tax inflation adjustments Comparison: the capital gains standard deduction is adjusted every October by the 12-month CPI change
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.
RCW 82.87.040, capital gains tax rates The 2025 additional 2.9% rate on Washington capital gains over $1,000,000, a threshold RCW 82.87.150 does not adjust
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.
Washington Department of Revenue, Capital Gains Tax - Tax Year 2025 Initial Collections Net capital gains tax collections and payment counts, tax years 2022-2025, as of June 9, 2026
Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State government work). Unrestricted

Reliability: Government. The Department of Revenue administers the capital gains tax and reports collections from returns and payments. Figures are revised as refunds and amended returns arrive.
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table B11001 (Household Type), Washington Total Washington households: 3,168,080 (margin of error plus or minus 9,393)
Retrieved October 15, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted

Reliability: Government. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey estimates household counts from an annual sample; the 2024 one-year estimate has a stated margin of error.
Washington State Standard via The Inlander, 'WA revenue officials: Income tax will bring in more money than first expected' (Aug. 27, 2026) Department of Revenue household estimates: 21,000 (legislative fiscal note) and 25,000 (July 2026 revision)
Retrieved October 14, 2026. News article; cited, not redistributed. Link only

Reliability: News report. Washington State Standard reporting, republished by The Inlander, of Department of Revenue estimates presented to lawmakers. A secondary report of official figures.

Limitations

A projection, not observed data: assumes constant 2.5% CPI-W inflation and a literal reading of ESSB 6346 section 316; the Department of Revenue has not issued guidance.
Sensitivity analyses at 2% and 3% inflation are in the dataset.
Y-axis does not start at zero.

Articles and datasets using this chart

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this chart each cites.

Article i645-threshold-simple-majority — version 3 (published) cites version 2
Article wa-millionaires-tax-who-it-affects — version 6 (published) cites version 2
Article wa-millionaires-tax-who-it-affects — version 5 (published) cites version 2
Briefing wa-i-645 — version 6 (published) cites version 2
Briefing wa-i-645 — version 4 (published) cites version 2