Projected paid leave premiums vs. costs at the 1.2% cap, 2026-2029

What this chart asks

Does a 1.2% premium cover the program's projected costs?

Why it is shown this way

• Two lines over the same years show where costs cross above premiums.
• The y axis does not start at zero so the gap between the lines is visible; the axis starts near $2.6 billion.
• Hover shows each year's values.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

Rate reaches 1.2% cap

2027

From 2027 the rate is held at the 1.20% legal maximum.

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset wa-paid-leave-premiums-solvency, analysis premiums-vs-costs-projection

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave premiums and solvency, 2019-2029

1. Washington Policy Center (Elizabeth New) The claims checked: the 2027 rate is triple the 2019 rate, a 6.2% increase, the statutory cap, and not projected to keep the program solvent.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved (quoted for commentary). Short quotes only; linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. A free-market think tank in Washington state. The author is its Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy and calls for repealing the Paid Leave payroll tax in the same article.

2. Washington State Employment Security Department 2027 premium rate (1.2%) and split (employers 29.3%, employees 70.7%); claims and benefits in the first nine months of 2026; small-employer exemption.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. ESD runs the Paid Leave program and sets the rate each October. This is its official rate announcement of October 16, 2026.

3. Washington State Employment Security Department 2026 premium rate (1.13%), 2025 rate (0.92%) and 2026 split (employers 28.57%, employees 71.43%).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. ESD's official rate announcement of October 29, 2025.

4. Washington State Employment Security Department 2019 and 2020 premium rate (0.4%) and split (employers 36.667%, employees up to 63.333%); the 2020 forecast that rates would stay between 0.4% and 0.6% over the coming decade.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. ESD's December 2020 annual report to the Legislature on the program, written in its first year of benefits.

5. Washington State Employment Security Department, Office of Actuarial Services Rate history 2021-2025 (Figure 4); projected rates (Figure 6); fiscal-year account projection (Figure 7); 2024-2025 income statement (Figure 8); calendar-year pricing projection (Figure 17); claim and benefit trends.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The annual actuarial valuation required by RCW 50A.05.050, signed by two credentialed actuaries (FSA, FCAS) in ESD's Office of Actuarial Services. Data through June 30, 2025; published November 2025.

6. Washington State Employment Security Department October 6, 2026 preliminary update to the House Labor and Workplace Standards Committee: cap reached in 2027, sustained deficit from 2029, worker and employer cost at 1.2% and 1.4%.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Slides ESD presented to a legislative committee while preparing its Paid Leave solvency report, due November 1, 2026. Labeled preliminary.

7. Washington Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee (JLARC) Revenue and expenses 2020-2023 (Figure 2); growth in applications and weekly benefits since 2020; finding that the rate formula does not produce enough revenue.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The Legislature's nonpartisan audit office, independent of ESD. Its final report on the program, with a consulting actuary (Spring Consulting Group).

8. Washington State Legislature Statutory premium formula, the 1.20% maximum, and the employee and employer shares; version effective January 1, 2028 under 2026 c 104.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Revised Code of Washington). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The codified statute that governs the premium.

9. Washington State Senate Committee Services Final bill report for 2SSB 5292 (2026): actuarial rate-setting from 2028, the 1.2% maximum kept, four-month reserve target in 2030.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative staff summary of the bill as enacted.

10. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington all-occupation annual wages, May 2025: 10th percentile $38,670; 25th $47,020; median $62,990; mean $83,330; 75th $101,710; 90th $153,630; employment 3,550,970.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Free to redistribute with attribution to BLS.

    Reliability: Government. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, a federal survey of employers. Wages are straight-time gross pay and exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses.

Limitations

• These are projections made in November 2025 from data through June 2025, not actual results.
• Costs are the ultimate cost of leave that starts in each year (benefits plus small-business grants plus administration, minus interest), not cash paid that year.
• The y axis is truncated: it does not start at zero.