JumpStart revenue: estimates and forecasts versus collections

What this dataset measures

The JumpStart tax was passed in 2020 with a spending plan that put 62% of revenue toward affordable housing. Comparing the plan with each adopted budget's actual allocations shows how much went to the General Fund instead, and comparing forecasts with collections shows whether revenue fell short of what was promised.

Geography

Seattle, Washington, United States

Unit of observation

Budget year by use of payroll expense tax proceeds

Update cadence

Annually, when the City adopts its budget

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

JumpStart revenue: estimates and forecasts versus collections

For each tax year, the 2020 Council staff estimate, the forecast assumed when that year's budget was adopted, and the amount collected.

Unit of observation: Tax year

jumpstart-revenue-vs-forecast.csv text/csv · 616 bytes

All 6 rows 7 columns Download the file

All 6 rows

year	council_2020_estimate_musd millions of US dollars	adopted_budget_assumption_musd millions of US dollars	actual_or_latest_musd millions of US dollars	actual_status	council_estimate_value_type	source_ids
2021	214	214.3	298	actual	observed	wrc-pb-23-03;cbo-2021-revenue;cbo-2728-gf-revenue
2022	219	233.9	266	actual	observed	wrc-pb-23-03;cbo-2022-revenue;cbo-2728-gf-revenue
2023	223.4	294.1	315	actual	derived	cbo-2023-revenue;cbo-2728-gf-revenue
2024	227.8	325.7	362	actual	derived	cbo-2024-revenue;cbo-2728-gf-revenue
2025	232.4	440.5	390	actual	derived	cbo-2026-gf-revenue;cbo-2728-gf-revenue
2026	237.1	392.7	394	revised forecast	derived	cbo-2026-gf-revenue;cbo-2728-gf-revenue

7 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
year	integer	Tax year.	—	observed
council_2020_estimate_musd	number	July 2020 Council staff estimate. 2021 and 2022 are published; 2023-2026 extend the 2022 figure at the 2% annual growth the staff assumed.	millions of US dollars	derived
adopted_budget_assumption_musd	number	Revenue forecast assumed in that year's adopted budget.	millions of US dollars	observed
actual_or_latest_musd	number	Total tax obligations for the year; 2026 is the September 2026 revised forecast.	millions of US dollars	observed
actual_status	string	actual or revised forecast.	—	observed
council_estimate_value_type	string	Whether the Council estimate is published (observed) or extended by FactHub (derived).	—	observed
source_ids	string	Semicolon-separated source ids.	—	observed

Sources

1. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2021 Adopted Budget, Revenue Overview: $214.3 million of payroll tax budgeted in the General Fund for 2021

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office. It reports the City's own budget decisions, which this dataset compares with the City's spending plan.

2. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2022 Adopted Budget, Revenue Overview: $233.9 million forecast and $85.4 million transfer to the General Fund

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

3. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2023 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $100.6 million General Fund transfer, $137.6 million housing, $294.1 million forecast

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

4. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2024 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $84.1 million General Fund transfer, $140.2 million housing, $305.7 million forecast plus about $20 million from a rate increase

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

5. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2025 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $304.6 million General Fund support, $136.2 million housing, $541.7 million appropriations

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

6. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2026 Adopted Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $201 million (47%) General Fund transfer, $143.1 million housing, $429 million appropriations

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book prepared by the City Budget Office.

7. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2026 Adopted Budget, General Fund Revenue Overview: 2025 Adopted forecast ($440.5 million, derived as $385.4 million plus $55.1 million) and 2026 forecast ($392.7 million)

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Official adopted budget book; payroll tax forecasts come from the City's Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts.

8. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2027-2028 Proposed Budget, Multi-Department Revenue Summary: $173 million (38%) General Fund transfer, $65 million for homelessness programs, $142 million housing

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Mayor Katie Wilson's proposed budget, released September 22, 2026; the Council had not adopted it when retrieved.

9. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2027-2028 Proposed Budget, General Fund Revenue Overview: total tax obligations for 2021-2025 and revenue forecasts for 2026-2027

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

   Reliability: Government. Proposed budget book; the payroll tax history is the City's most recent published account of collections by tax year.

10. Washington Research Council Policy brief PB 23-03 (June 26, 2023): the July 2020 Council staff estimates of $214 million for 2021 and $219 million for 2022

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. All rights reserved (Washington Research Council); figures cited, not redistributed. Linked only

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. The Washington Research Council is a business-supported, nonpartisan fiscal research group that has criticized the tax's volatility. Its revenue figures come from the City's Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts and Council staff.

11. Seattle City Council Ordinance 126393 (July 2021), which codified the spending plan percentages (62% housing, 15% economic, 9% Equitable Development Initiative, 9% Green New Deal, up to 5% administration) in SMC 5.38.055

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Signed ordinance text from the City Clerk's legislative records.

12. City of Seattle, City Budget Office Summary and fiscal note for Council Bill 120912 (Ordinance 127155, November 2024)

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Speaks against its own interest. Written by the Mayor's budget office to justify loosening the spending plan; its admission that the plan was never followed runs against the City's interest in presenting the tax as dedicated.

13. Office of the Mayor, City of Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan's July 30, 2021 letter returning Council Bill 120118 (Ordinance 126393) unsigned

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Party to the dispute. Durkan opposed restricting the tax's future uses; the letter states her reasons.

14. City of Seattle, City Budget Office 2027-2028 Proposed Budget Overview (Mayor Katie Wilson)

    Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public record (City of Seattle). Public government document; linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Speaks against its own interest. A progressive mayor's budget acknowledging that JumpStart is still needed to support the General Fund, against her stated goal of returning the money to its original purposes.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public documents: Every value is copied from a City of Seattle budget book, ordinance, or the Washington Research Council brief named in the row's source_id, except the derived columns, which are simple arithmetic (62% of a revenue figure, a 2% annual growth path from the 2022 estimate, or a ratio) described in each field.

• General Fund transfers and housing amounts are budgeted (adopted or proposed) amounts, not year-end actual spending. Ordinance 126719 required part of the 2023 and 2024 transfers to be returned if the General Fund ended the year with a surplus, and 2025 legislation cut the 2025 transfer by $33.3 million; these adjustments are not reflected in the adopted figures.
• Revenue is total tax obligations for each tax year as reported by the City Budget Office in September 2026; earlier documents report slightly different totals for the same year (for example $297 million or $298 million for 2021 and $359 million or $362 million for 2024) because late payments keep arriving.
• The 2020 Council staff estimate was published only for 2021 ($214 million) and 2022 ($219 million, assuming 2% growth). Values for 2023-2026 extend that 2% path and are FactHub derivations, not City estimates.
• The 2024 budget assumption ($325.7 million) adds the $20 million the Council expected from its 2024 rate increase to the $305.7 million forecast used when the 2024 budget was adopted.
• Housing amounts for 2022 are not shown: the 2022 Adopted Budget reports $69.7 million of payroll tax for housing production and preservation but does not total the housing and services category the way later budgets do.
• Category definitions changed over time; for example the 2025 and later budgets include rental assistance and tenant legal aid in housing and services, and youth mental health spending was added outside the original categories in 2024.