Increase in overdose death rate in deaths per 100,000, 2014-2024

What this dataset measures

Assembled to test the Washington Policy Center claim, in its March 2026 report "Homelessness in Washington State", that Washington had the highest growth in per-capita drug overdose deaths of any state from 2014 to 2024 (188%), rising from 29th to 4th. Every state is included so the ranking can be checked, and the three rate bases show whether the ranking depends on method.

Geography

United States, All 50 states, Washington

Unit of observation

State (2014 vs 2024 comparison); state-year (yearly rates); year (Washington drug-specific counts).

Update cadence

One-time release. CDC publishes final 2025 data in late 2026.

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 12.2 KB (12,539 bytes)

  Node.js script that builds every table and saved-analysis result from the source files.

• analysis-results.json Derived table · application/json · 17.1 KB (17,545 bytes)

  Structured results of every saved analysis, as JSON keyed by analysis id.

Saved analyses

Sources

1. CDC National Center for Health Statistics 2014 drug overdose (drug poisoning) deaths, population, crude and age-adjusted rates by state, both sexes, all ages.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Permitted

   Reliability: Government. NCHS builds these figures from every death certificate filed in the U.S. through the National Vital Statistics System, the same data CDC WONDER serves. Deaths are counted by state of residence.

2. CDC National Center for Health Statistics Final age-adjusted drug overdose death rates and deaths by state of residence, 2015-2024 (map data file behind the page). Not used for 2014, where its Arizona and Arkansas rows are swapped.

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Permitted

   Reliability: Government. Official NCHS state statistics from final National Vital Statistics System mortality files, age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population.

3. CDC National Center for Health Statistics U.S. final 2024 overdose deaths (79,384) and age-adjusted rate (23.1).

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Permitted

   Reliability: Government. Official NCHS data brief from final 2024 mortality data.

4. CDC National Center for Health Statistics U.S. final age-adjusted rates, 2014-2023.

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Permitted

   Reliability: Government. Official NCHS data brief from final mortality data.

5. CDC National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics Rapid Release Provisional 12-month counts ending December 2024 for every state (predicted values), and Washington counts involving synthetic opioids other than methadone (T40.4), 2019-2024. Free copy

   Retrieved October 18, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Permitted

   Reliability: Government. Provisional death-certificate counts by state where the death happened, updated monthly; predicted values adjust for reporting delays.

6. U.S. Census Bureau July 1, 2024 resident population by state (Vintage 2024), used to compute 2024 crude rates.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Permitted

   Reliability: Government. Official Census Bureau population estimates program, based on the 2020 Census plus births, deaths and migration.

7. Washington Policy Center The claim checked: executive summary of "Homelessness in Washington State" (Eric Zimmerman, March 2026).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved (quoted for review). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. Washington Policy Center is a free-market think tank. The report argues that drug use and drug policy, more than rent, drive Washington homelessness, so the overdose ranking supports its thesis.

8. Washington Policy Center Full report, including its method notes (crude rates; CDC WONDER 2014 and NVSS 2024 provisional data).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved (quoted for review). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. Same report as the executive summary; its method pages state that 2014-2024 growth uses crude rates and 2024 projected (provisional) counts.

9. KIRO Newsradio (MyNorthwest) Interview in which report author Eric Zimmerman states Washington went from 29th in 2014 to 4th in 2024.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved (quoted for review). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: News report. Article by host John Curley quoting Zimmerman directly, July 19, 2026.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible: build.js (Node.js, no dependencies) rebuilds every table and saved-analysis result from the CDC and Census files listed in sources, fetched October 18 to November 3, 2026. U.S. 2024 final figures are typed from NCHS Data Brief 549.

• Age-adjusted rates (CDC's standard for comparing states) and crude rates (deaths divided by population) rank states slightly differently. Washington's 2014 rank is 32nd on age-adjusted rates and 29th on crude rates.
• Final CDC counts are by state of residence. The 2024 provisional counts are by the state where the death happened, so states with many visitors, such as Nevada, show higher provisional rates (Nevada: 1,510 provisional vs 1,237 final deaths in 2024).
• CDC's state map data file (Drug_Overdose_dfe.json) swaps Arizona's and Arkansas's 2014 values: it shows Arizona with 356 deaths and Arkansas with 1,211. CDC's detailed table (data.cdc.gov xbxb-epbu) has Arizona 1,211 and Arkansas 356, consistent with both states' other years. This dataset uses the detailed table for every 2014 value. With the map file's values, Arizona would wrongly rank 4th in growth.
• 2024 crude rates use Census Bureau Vintage 2024 population estimates; CDC WONDER may use a slightly different population vintage, which can move crude rates by about 0.1 per 100,000.
• Growth rankings depend on the start year. Washington ranks 1st from 2014 but 3rd, behind Alaska and Oregon, for windows starting in 2015, 2019 or 2020.
• These are descriptive counts and rates. Nothing in this dataset estimates the effect of State v. Blake, drug possession laws or any other policy.
• Washington's first place is in percentage growth. Measured as deaths added per 100,000, Alaska rose more (+28.3 vs +24.3, age-adjusted).