FactHub

FactHub curated dataset

Washington's Share of U.S. Commercial Apple Production, 2000-2025

USDA NASS commercial apple production, value and acreage by state, 2000-2025, with Census of Agriculture acreage and saved analyses of Washington's share of the U.S. crop.

Coverage: 2000-2025 crop years (Census of Agriculture 2002-2022; 2026 forecast)

Node: dataset:wa-apple-production-share

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What this dataset measures

Tests the common claim that Washington grows most of America's apples using NASS, the official U.S. source for crop estimates, over a long enough period (26 years) to show year-to-year swings and the effect of NASS's 2018 reduction to seven estimated states.

Geography
Washington, United States
Unit of observation
State-year
Update cadence
Annual, after the NASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts summary (May)
Curator
FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

These related tables form this versioned dataset release. Each table has its own downloadable file and field definitions.

Commercial apple estimates by state and year

NASS commercial apple estimates for each published state, the NASS "Other states" aggregate where present, and the United States, 2000-2025. One row per state per year.

Unit of observation: State-year (crop year)

View this table

state-year-production.csv text/csv · 118.6 KB (121,496 bytes)
10 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
year integer Crop year. — observed
state_code string Two-letter postal code; US for the national total; OT for the NASS "Other states" aggregate of withheld states. — observed
state string State name. — observed
bearing_acres number Bearing acreage of commercial orchards. Blank when NASS withheld or did not publish it. acres observed
total_production_mlb number Total production, including unharvested fruit and fruit harvested but not sold. million pounds observed
utilized_production_mlb number Utilized production (fresh market plus processing). million pounds observed
fresh_market_mlb number Utilized production sold for fresh market. Only 2007-2025 (Quick Stats). million pounds observed
utilized_value_kusd number Value of utilized production, nominal dollars. thousand U.S. dollars observed
source_id string Id of the dataset source this row was taken from. — observed
source_locator string Table or query within that source. — observed

Washington's share of U.S. commercial apples by year

Washington's share of U.S. utilized production, total production, value, bearing acres and fresh-market production, with the second-largest state and seven-state comparisons, 2000-2025.

Unit of observation: Crop year

View this table

annual-wa-share.csv text/csv · 2.5 KB (2,565 bytes)
16 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
year integer Crop year. — observed
states_estimated integer Number of individually published states with utilized production that year. states derived
us_utilized_mlb number U.S. utilized production as published by NASS (sum of estimated states). million pounds observed
wa_utilized_mlb number Washington utilized production. million pounds observed
wa_share_utilized_pct number Washington's share of U.S. utilized production. percent derived
wa_share_total_production_pct number Washington's share of U.S. total production. percent derived
wa_share_value_pct number Washington's share of U.S. value of utilized production. percent derived
wa_share_bearing_acres_pct number Washington's share of U.S. commercial bearing acres. Rises in 2018 partly because the U.S. total then covers seven states. percent derived
wa_share_fresh_market_pct number Washington's share of U.S. fresh-market production, 2007-2025. percent derived
second_state string State with the second-largest utilized production. — derived
second_state_utilized_mlb number Utilized production of the second-largest state. million pounds observed
wa_to_second_ratio number Washington's utilized production divided by the second-largest state's. ratio derived
seven_state_utilized_mlb number Sum of CA, MI, NY, OR, PA, VA and WA utilized production. million pounds derived
wa_share_of_seven_states_pct number Washington's share of the seven-state sum (a consistent denominator across all years). percent derived
other_states_utilized_mlb number Utilized production of all states outside the seven, including the NASS "Other states" aggregate. Zero from 2018 because NASS no longer estimates them, not because they grow no apples. million pounds derived
us_minus_sum_of_states_mlb number Consistency check: U.S. total minus the sum of published states and the Other states aggregate. million pounds derived

Census of Agriculture apple acreage, United States and Washington

Apple acreage on all farms (not only commercial orchards of 100 or more trees) in every state, from the Census of Agriculture, 2002-2022.

Unit of observation: Census year

View this table

census-acreage.csv text/csv · 543 bytes
11 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
census_year integer Census of Agriculture year. — observed
us_bearing_acres number U.S. bearing apple acres, all farms. acres observed
wa_bearing_acres number Washington bearing apple acres, all farms. acres observed
wa_bearing_acres_cv_pct number NASS coefficient of variation for the Washington estimate (published from 2012). percent observed
wa_share_bearing_acres_pct number Washington's share of U.S. bearing apple acres. percent derived
us_total_acres number U.S. bearing and non-bearing apple acres. acres observed
wa_total_acres number Washington bearing and non-bearing apple acres. acres observed
wa_share_total_acres_pct number Washington's share of all U.S. apple acres. percent derived
second_state string State with the second-most bearing acres. — derived
second_state_bearing_acres number Bearing acres of that state. acres observed
states_with_bearing_acres integer Number of states with a published bearing-acre value. states derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

  • README.md Documentation · text/markdown · 2.8 KB (2,898 bytes)

    What the dataset contains, sources by year, method, definitions and how to reproduce it.

  • quality-report.md Quality report · text/markdown · 1.3 KB (1,302 bytes)

    Internal consistency checks, cross-checks between NASS files, and coverage changes.

  • source-manifest.json Source manifest · application/json · 2.9 KB (2,935 bytes)

    Every raw input with its URL, Quick Stats query, byte length and SHA-256 at download.

  • fetch_sources.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 4 KB (4,108 bytes)

    Downloads the raw NASS and ERS files (Quick Stats web export and ESMIS reports).

  • analyze.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 16.9 KB (17,284 bytes)

    Parses the raw files and computes every share and comparison.

  • build_release.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 37.6 KB (38,498 bytes)

    Writes the CSV tables, documentation and this dataset payload.

  • dataset-metadata.json Data dictionary · application/json · 46.1 KB (47,233 bytes)

    Machine-readable sources, table and field definitions, saved analyses with their structured results, and replications for this release.

Saved analyses

Washington's share of U.S. apple production and crop value, 2000-2025

Question: What share of U.S. commercial apple production (utilized pounds) and of its value did Washington account for each year?

Result: Washington's share of U.S. utilized apple production ranged from 52.3% (2003) to 72.3% (2012) and was 66.8% in 2025. Its share of crop value ranged from 56.8% to 74.9%.

Operation: ratio-by-year

Scope: 2000-2025, one row per year per series (utilized production; value of utilized production).

View this analysis

  • From 2018 the published U.S. total covers only seven states, which raises the share by roughly 3 to 4 points compared with a full national total (see seven-state-sensitivity).
  • NASS estimates cover commercial orchards of 100 or more bearing trees, not backyard or very small orchards.
  • Year-to-year swings are driven by crop failures and alternate bearing in individual states, not only by long-term trends: the 2012 peak reflects the Michigan crop falling to 115 million pounds (975 million in 2011) and the New York crop to 710 million (1,210 million in 2011).

Robustness checks

Summary of Washington's share, 2000-2025

Question: Across 2000-2025, in how many years did Washington produce more than half of U.S. utilized apples, and what were the lowest, highest and average shares?

Result: Washington produced more than half of U.S. utilized apples in 26 of 26 years. Lowest 52.3% (2003), highest 72.3% (2012), mean 61.4%; 2000-2004 average 57.2%, 2021-2025 average 65.7%.

Operation: summary-statistics

Scope: 26 crop years, 2000-2025.

View this analysis

  • The 2021-2025 average uses the seven-state U.S. total; see seven-state-sensitivity for the adjusted range.

Apple production by state, 2025

Question: How did the seven states NASS estimates rank in 2025 utilized production?

Result: Washington 7163.0 million lb (66.8%); New York 1493.5 million lb (13.9%); Michigan 1064.0 million lb (9.9%); Pennsylvania 503.0 million lb (4.7%).

Operation: rank

Scope: 2025 crop year, seven NASS program states.

View this analysis

  • Shares are of the seven-state total that NASS publishes as the U.S. total.
  • States outside the seven are not estimated.

Second-largest apple state and Washington-to-second ratio, 2000-2025

Question: Which state ranked second each year, and how many times larger was Washington?

Result: New York was second in 24 of 26 years and Michigan in 2. Washington produced 3.82 to 9.08 times as much as the second state.

Operation: rank-and-ratio

Scope: 2000-2025.

View this analysis

  • Ranks use utilized production; total-production ranks can differ slightly in years with large unharvested losses.

Robustness check for: Washington's share of U.S. apple production and crop value, 2000-2025

Sensitivity: U.S. total including states NASS stopped estimating in 2018

Question: How much does Washington's share change if the published 2018-2025 U.S. total is adjusted for the states NASS no longer estimates?

Result: Adjusted shares are 57.1-63.7% (published: 60.8-67.5%).

Operation: adjusted-ratio

Scope: 2018-2025.

View this analysis

  • The add-back is an estimate: it assumes other states kept producing at their 2015-2017 average. Fewer states were estimated in 2016-2017 than earlier, so the add-back may be low.

Robustness check for: Washington's share of U.S. apple production and crop value, 2000-2025

Washington's share of U.S. apple acreage, Census of Agriculture 2002-2022

Question: What share of all U.S. apple acreage, counted on every farm in every state, is in Washington?

Result: Washington had 37.9%, 42.3%, 46.3%, 48.0%, 47.2% of U.S. bearing apple acres in 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022.

Operation: ratio-by-census-year

Scope: Census years 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022.

View this analysis

  • Acreage is not production; Washington yields per acre are well above the national average, so its share of acres understates its share of pounds.
  • Census estimates carry sampling and non-response error (Washington CV 3.5-9.2% where published).

Robustness check for: Washington's share of U.S. apple production and crop value, 2000-2025

Washington's share of U.S. fresh-market apples, 2007-2025

Question: What share of apples sold for fresh eating came from Washington?

Result: Washington supplied 68.3-81.1% of U.S. fresh-market apples in 2007-2025 and 70.7-77.8% in 2021-2025.

Operation: ratio-by-year

Scope: 2007-2025.

View this analysis

  • From 2018 the U.S. fresh total covers seven states.
  • Crop-year basis; ERS may use marketing years or a different set of years.

2026 forecast share (total production)

Question: What share of the forecast 2026 U.S. apple crop is Washington's?

Result: Forecast: Washington 7400.0 of 10437.0 million pounds (70.9%).

Operation: ratio

Scope: 2026 crop, seven states.

View this analysis

  • A forecast of total production, not final utilized production; NASS revises it in later reports.
  • Total production includes fruit that may go unharvested or unsold, so the utilized share can differ.

Replication

FactHub's estimates beside published external estimates of the same quantity. The difference is FactHub's value minus the external value.

FactHub analysis External estimate External value FactHub value Difference Note
Washington's share of U.S. fresh-market apples, 2007-2025 USDA ERS, Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2026 (FTS-386), September 24, 2026
Page 3: "Over the previous 5 seasons, Washington's share of U.S. fresh-market apple production ranged from 71 to 80 percent" (lower bound) 		71 percent 70.7 percent -0.3 percent FactHub lower bound over crop years 2021-2025 from NASS fresh-market production. Close agreement.
Washington's share of U.S. fresh-market apples, 2007-2025 USDA ERS, Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2026 (FTS-386), September 24, 2026
Page 3, same sentence (upper bound) 		80 percent 77.8 percent -2.2 percent FactHub's highest crop-year share for 2021-2025 is 77.8% (and 81.1% for 2007-2025). ERS does not say which years or which measure gives 80 percent; it may use marketing-year shipments or another fresh-use measure. FactHub did not reproduce the 80 percent figure.

Sources

  1. USDA NASS Quick Stats: apples, survey program, state and national, annual (query source_desc=SURVEY&sector_desc=CROPS&group_desc=FRUIT & TREE NUTS&commodity_desc=APPLES&statisticcat_desc=PRODUCTION&statisticcat_desc=AREA BEARING&agg_level_desc=STATE&agg_level_desc=NATIONAL&freq_desc=ANNUAL&reference_period_desc=YEAR) Primary data, 2007-2025 estimates and 2026 forecast

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

  2. USDA NASS Quick Stats: apples, Census of Agriculture, state and national (query source_desc=CENSUS&sector_desc=CROPS&group_desc=FRUIT & TREE NUTS&commodity_desc=APPLES&agg_level_desc=STATE&agg_level_desc=NATIONAL&freq_desc=ANNUAL&reference_period_desc=YEAR) Primary data, all-farm apple acreage 2002-2022

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

  3. USDA NASS, Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2002 Summary (Fr Nt 3-1 (03)), July 8, 2003 Primary data, 2000-2002 estimates

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

  4. USDA NASS, Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2005 Summary, July 6, 2006 Primary data, 2003-2004 estimates

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

  5. USDA NASS, Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2007 Summary (revised), July 8, 2008 Primary data, 2005-2006 estimates; cross-check for 2007

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

  6. USDA NASS, Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2025 Summary, May 2026 Cross-check for 2023-2025 and definition of commercial orchards

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

    Archived copy captured September 26, 2026

  7. USDA ERS, Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2026 (FTS-386), September 24, 2026 External comparison: Washington share of fresh-market apples; 2026 forecast context

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; U.S. federal government data are not subject to copyright.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

Limitations and reproducibility

Fully reproducible: fetch_sources.js downloads every raw file from NASS Quick Stats (web export) and USDA ESMIS; analyze.js and build_release.js rebuild every table and saved analysis with Node.js 20 and no packages. Quick Stats returns current values, so later NASS revisions can change 2007-2025 figures slightly.

  • Since 2018 NASS estimates apples in only seven states (CA, MI, NY, OR, PA, VA, WA) and its published U.S. total is their sum, so shares from 2018 are of a seven-state total. A sensitivity analysis estimates the effect at about 3 to 4 percentage points.
  • NASS estimates cover commercial orchards with 100 or more bearing trees; the Census of Agriculture table covers all farms.
  • Values for 2000-2006 come from the NASS annual summaries as revised in July 2003, 2006 and 2008; NASS may have revised them later, but Quick Stats does not carry state survey estimates before 2007.
  • Value of production is nominal and depends on NASS price estimates, which mix fresh and processing prices.
  • Shares describe Washington's production relative to other states; they say nothing about consumption or exports.
  • The Wayback Machine could not capture the two Quick Stats CSV exports (repeated HTTP 520/523 errors on 2026-10-09). Their SHA-256 digests are recorded on the sources and in source-manifest.json, and fetch_sources.js re-creates the same exports; a re-download on 2026-10-09 returned identical bytes.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article washington-grows-most-us-apples — version 3 (published) cites version 1
  • Article washington-grows-most-us-apples — version 2 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart wa-apple-share-of-us-production — version 1 (published) cites version 1