Break-even wages under alternative assumptions

What this dataset measures

Built to test the claim that many Washington workers will pay more into WA Cares than its maximum benefit is worth. The premium rate, wage base and benefit cap come from the statute (RCW 50B.04); the wage growth, benefit indexing and investment return assumptions come from the actuarial valuation the state relies on, so the comparison uses the program's own numbers.

Geography

Washington, United States

Unit of observation

A hypothetical worker at a given career-average wage (table career-premiums-by-wage); an assumption scenario (break-even-scenarios); a point of the wage distribution (wa-wage-distribution-outcomes); a program rule (program-parameters).

Update cadence

Revise when the premium rate, benefit amount or actuarial assumptions change.

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

Break-even wages under alternative assumptions

Career-average wage above which a worker's premiums exceed the maximum benefit, for different career lengths, ages at use, wage paths and discount rates.

Unit of observation: Assumption scenario

break-even-scenarios.csv text/csv · 1.1 KB (1,086 bytes)

All 10 rows 7 columns Download the file

All 10 rows

scenario_id	scenario	premium_years years	years_until_benefit_used years	nominal_discount_rate fraction per year	break_even_wage_simple USD (2026)	break_even_wage_present_value USD (2026)
base	Base: 40-year career (ages 25-64), flat real wage, benefit used at 85, 4.0% discount rate	40	60	0.04	157300	82600
claim-80	Benefit used at 80 instead of 85	40	55	0.04	157300	89300
claim-75	Benefit used at 75 instead of 85	40	50	0.04	157300	96500
rising-wage	Wage rises 1.12% a year faster than prices over the career (same career average)	40	60	0.04	157300	84600
disc-3	Discount rate 3.0% instead of 4.0%	40	60	0.03	157300	123900
disc-5	Discount rate 5.0% instead of 4.0%	40	60	0.05	157300	54700
career-30	30 years of premiums (age 35 in 2026, works through 64), benefit used at 85	30	50	0.04	209800	119900
career-20	20 years of premiums (age 45 in 2026, works through 64), benefit used at 85	20	40	0.04	314700	195300
career-10	10 years of premiums (age 55 in 2026, works through 64), benefit used at 85	10	30	0.04	629300	423400
near-retiree	Born before 1968: each year of premiums earns 10% of the maximum benefit ($3,650)	1	—	—	629300	—

7 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
scenario_id	string	Scenario identifier.	—	observed
scenario	string	What differs from the base case.	—	observed
premium_years	integer	Years of premiums.	years	estimated
years_until_benefit_used	integer	Years from the first premium to use of the benefit. Empty for the near-retiree row, where timing does not apply.	years	estimated
nominal_discount_rate	number	Nominal discount rate for present values. Empty for the near-retiree row.	fraction per year	estimated
break_even_wage_simple	integer	Career-average wage at which total inflation-adjusted premiums equal $36,500, rounded to $100. For near-retirees, the annual wage at which one year of premiums equals the 10% of the benefit that year earns.	USD (2026)	derived
break_even_wage_present_value	integer	Career-average wage at which the present value of premiums equals the present value of the benefit, rounded to $100. Empty for the near-retiree row.	USD (2026)	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• results.json Derived table · application/json · 28 KB (28,648 bytes)

  Every table and the chart rows as JSON, with the assumptions used; the saved analyses read from this file.

• build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8.6 KB (8,835 bytes)

  Node.js script that computes every table and result from the stated constants.

Sources

1. Washington State Legislature Premium rate and wage base (RCW 50B.04.080, 50B.04.010), benefit unit and lifetime limit (50B.04.010, 50B.04.060), vesting (50B.04.050), portability (50B.04.180) and exemptions (50B.04.053, .055, .085).

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record (Revised Code of Washington). Statute text is public; linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The current codified statute governing WA Cares, including 2024 and 2025 amendments. The Legislature that created the program maintains it.

2. Milliman, for the Washington Office of the State Actuary Economic assumptions: ultimate wage growth 3.55% and benefit indexing 2.4%; program features modeled; required premium 0.48% to 0.65%.

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record (Washington state report). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Actuarial valuation commissioned by the Office of the State Actuary, which is responsible for the fund's solvency analysis. Milliman is a private actuarial firm under contract; the report states its assumptions and sensitivities.

3. Washington Office of the State Actuary Net investment earned rate (4.4% grading to 4.0%), base-scenario actuarial balance, premium recommendation, and the 2025 law fixing benefit indexing to inflation.

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record (Washington state report). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. The state actuary's June 2025 summary of the Milliman valuation and its recommendations to the Pension Funding Council. The office advises on keeping the program solvent.

4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington all-occupation annual wages, May 2025: 10th percentile $38,670; 25th $47,020; median $62,990; mean $83,330; 75th $101,710; 90th $153,630; employment 3,550,970 (series OEUS5300000000000000000{01,04,11,12,13,14,15}).

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Free to redistribute with attribution to BLS.

   Reliability: Government. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, a federal survey of employers. Wages are straight-time gross pay and exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses.

5. Washington State Employment Security Department Count of approved private-insurance exemptions (480,366 as of Dec. 29, 2022).

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record. Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. ESD administers WA Cares premium collection and exemptions and reports its own application counts.

6. Washington State Legislature Final bill report for SHB 1732 (2022): 18-month delay of premiums to July 1, 2023 and partial benefits for people born before 1968.

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record. Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative staff summary of the bill as enacted.

Limitations and reproducibility

Fully reproducible: build.js (Node.js, no dependencies) regenerates every table and saved-analysis result from the constants it states. Each constant is taken from a cited source: the 0.58% rate and $36,500 cap from RCW 50B.04; 3.55% wage growth, 2.4% benefit indexing and the 4.0% ultimate net investment earned rate from Milliman's 2024 actuarial valuation and the Office of the State Actuary's summary of it; wage percentiles from BLS OEWS May 2025.

• These are projections for hypothetical workers, not records of what any person has paid. Premiums began July 1, 2023, so no one has yet paid for a full career.
• All dollars are in 2026 dollars, deflated by the 2.4% a year at which the actuary assumes the benefit will be indexed. If the benefit is indexed by more or less than wages grow, the comparison shifts accordingly.
• The maximum benefit is the most a person can receive, not what a typical person receives. About half of people who reach 65 never receive paid long-term care, and their benefit is worth nothing to them in cash terms; others use only part of it.
• The present-value comparison assumes the whole benefit is used in one year at age 85 (alternatives at 75 and 80 are in break-even-scenarios) and discounts at the fund's own assumed 4.0% return. A lower discount rate raises the present-value break-even wage; a higher one lowers it.
• Career-average wages are compared with a cross-section of 2025 wages (BLS OEWS), which spans young and old workers in one year. Career averages are less spread out than one year's wages, so the share of workers above a break-even wage is approximate.
• BLS OEWS wages exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses, while WA Cares charges premiums on all wages, so OEWS understates the taxable wages of some workers.
• The premium rate is 0.58% under current law. From 2026 the Pension Funding Council may lower it, though not raise it without legislation; after voters approved investing the fund in stocks in 2025, a lower rate is possible.
• The model ignores taxes: premiums are paid from after-tax wages, and the tax treatment of benefits is not modeled.