Outcomes at points of Washington's wage distribution

What this dataset measures

Built to test the claim that many Washington workers will pay more into WA Cares than its maximum benefit is worth. The premium rate, wage base and benefit cap come from the statute (RCW 50B.04); the wage growth, benefit indexing and investment return assumptions come from the actuarial valuation the state relies on, so the comparison uses the program's own numbers.

Geography

Washington, United States

Unit of observation

A hypothetical worker at a given career-average wage (table career-premiums-by-wage); an assumption scenario (break-even-scenarios); a point of the wage distribution (wa-wage-distribution-outcomes); a program rule (program-parameters).

Update cadence

Revise when the premium rate, benefit amount or actuarial assumptions change.

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

Outcomes at points of Washington's wage distribution

Forty-year premium totals and present values for a worker whose career-average wage equals each point of Washington's May 2025 all-occupation wage distribution.

Unit of observation: Point of the wage distribution

wa-wage-distribution-outcomes.csv text/csv · 489 bytes

All 6 rows 9 columns Download the file

All 6 rows

point_id	point	annual_wage_may_2025 USD	total_premiums_40yr USD (2026)	pv_premiums_40yr USD (2026)	max_benefit USD (2026)	pv_max_benefit_at_85 USD (2026)	pays_more_than_max_benefit_simple	pays_more_than_pv_max_benefit
p10	10th percentile	38670	8971	6737	36500	14398	no	no
p25	25th percentile	47020	10909	8192	36500	14398	no	no
p50	Median	62990	14614	10975	36500	14398	no	no
mean	Mean	83330	19333	14518	36500	14398	no	yes
p75	75th percentile	101710	23597	17721	36500	14398	no	yes
p90	90th percentile	153630	35642	26767	36500	14398	no	yes

9 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
point_id	string	Identifier.	—	observed
point	string	Percentile or mean.	—	observed
annual_wage_may_2025	integer	BLS OEWS annual wage, Washington, all occupations, May 2025.	USD	observed
total_premiums_40yr	integer	Total inflation-adjusted premiums over 40 years at that wage.	USD (2026)	derived
pv_premiums_40yr	integer	Present value of those premiums at 4.0%.	USD (2026)	derived
max_benefit	integer	Maximum lifetime benefit.	USD (2026)	observed
pv_max_benefit_at_85	integer	Present value of the maximum benefit used at 85.	USD (2026)	derived
pays_more_than_max_benefit_simple	string	yes if total premiums exceed $36,500.	—	derived
pays_more_than_pv_max_benefit	string	yes if the present value of premiums exceeds the present value of the benefit.	—	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• results.json Derived table · application/json · 28 KB (28,648 bytes)

  Every table and the chart rows as JSON, with the assumptions used; the saved analyses read from this file.

• build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8.6 KB (8,835 bytes)

  Node.js script that computes every table and result from the stated constants.

Sources

1. Washington State Legislature Premium rate and wage base (RCW 50B.04.080, 50B.04.010), benefit unit and lifetime limit (50B.04.010, 50B.04.060), vesting (50B.04.050), portability (50B.04.180) and exemptions (50B.04.053, .055, .085).

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record (Revised Code of Washington). Statute text is public; linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The current codified statute governing WA Cares, including 2024 and 2025 amendments. The Legislature that created the program maintains it.

2. Milliman, for the Washington Office of the State Actuary Economic assumptions: ultimate wage growth 3.55% and benefit indexing 2.4%; program features modeled; required premium 0.48% to 0.65%.

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record (Washington state report). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. Actuarial valuation commissioned by the Office of the State Actuary, which is responsible for the fund's solvency analysis. Milliman is a private actuarial firm under contract; the report states its assumptions and sensitivities.

3. Washington Office of the State Actuary Net investment earned rate (4.4% grading to 4.0%), base-scenario actuarial balance, premium recommendation, and the 2025 law fixing benefit indexing to inflation.

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record (Washington state report). Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Has a stake in this finding. The state actuary's June 2025 summary of the Milliman valuation and its recommendations to the Pension Funding Council. The office advises on keeping the program solvent.

4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington all-occupation annual wages, May 2025: 10th percentile $38,670; 25th $47,020; median $62,990; mean $83,330; 75th $101,710; 90th $153,630; employment 3,550,970 (series OEUS5300000000000000000{01,04,11,12,13,14,15}).

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Free to redistribute with attribution to BLS.

   Reliability: Government. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, a federal survey of employers. Wages are straight-time gross pay and exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses.

5. Washington State Employment Security Department Count of approved private-insurance exemptions (480,366 as of Dec. 29, 2022).

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record. Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. ESD administers WA Cares premium collection and exemptions and reports its own application counts.

6. Washington State Legislature Final bill report for SHB 1732 (2022): 18-month delay of premiums to July 1, 2023 and partial benefits for people born before 1968.

   Retrieved October 19, 2026. Public record. Linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative staff summary of the bill as enacted.

Limitations and reproducibility

Fully reproducible: build.js (Node.js, no dependencies) regenerates every table and saved-analysis result from the constants it states. Each constant is taken from a cited source: the 0.58% rate and $36,500 cap from RCW 50B.04; 3.55% wage growth, 2.4% benefit indexing and the 4.0% ultimate net investment earned rate from Milliman's 2024 actuarial valuation and the Office of the State Actuary's summary of it; wage percentiles from BLS OEWS May 2025.

• These are projections for hypothetical workers, not records of what any person has paid. Premiums began July 1, 2023, so no one has yet paid for a full career.
• All dollars are in 2026 dollars, deflated by the 2.4% a year at which the actuary assumes the benefit will be indexed. If the benefit is indexed by more or less than wages grow, the comparison shifts accordingly.
• The maximum benefit is the most a person can receive, not what a typical person receives. About half of people who reach 65 never receive paid long-term care, and their benefit is worth nothing to them in cash terms; others use only part of it.
• The present-value comparison assumes the whole benefit is used in one year at age 85 (alternatives at 75 and 80 are in break-even-scenarios) and discounts at the fund's own assumed 4.0% return. A lower discount rate raises the present-value break-even wage; a higher one lowers it.
• Career-average wages are compared with a cross-section of 2025 wages (BLS OEWS), which spans young and old workers in one year. Career averages are less spread out than one year's wages, so the share of workers above a break-even wage is approximate.
• BLS OEWS wages exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses, while WA Cares charges premiums on all wages, so OEWS understates the taxable wages of some workers.
• The premium rate is 0.58% under current law. From 2026 the Pension Funding Council may lower it, though not raise it without legislation; after voters approved investing the fund in stocks in 2025, a lower rate is possible.
• The model ignores taxes: premiums are paid from after-tax wages, and the tax treatment of benefits is not modeled.