Analysis

2025 and other packages under other bases

Does the comparison change if 2025 is measured over four years, over its first full biennium, or against the forecast before the package?

Coverage: Sessions 1981-2025; revenue for the 1981-83 through 2025-27 budget periods (bienniums)

Contained in Size of Washington's largest state tax packages, 1981-2025.

What this dataset measures

Built to test the claim that the 2025 session passed the largest tax increase in Washington history. Included: every session we found that raised general-fund taxes by roughly half a billion 2025 dollars or more (1981, both 1982 special sessions, 1993, 2010, 2017, 2025), plus 2019 and 2021, which are often cited in the same debate. The 1985-91 sessions passed no large general-fund package according to the Legislative Budget Notes for those years.

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

  • build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 7.2 KB (7,323 bytes)

    Node.js script that computes the share, 2025-dollar and sensitivity values from the two tables.

Saved analyses

2025 and other packages under other bases

Question: Does the comparison change if 2025 is measured over four years, over its first full biennium, or against the forecast before the package?

Result: 2025 ranges from 4.7% to 6.6% of general-fund revenue depending on the period; the 1981-83 sessions combined were 14.6%, and the November 1981 session alone was 8.2%.

Operation: Shares computed from cited totals: 2025 tax bills $3,603.9M (2025-27), $5,444M (2027-29), $9,047M (four years); NGF-O revenue $76,258M (2025-27), $82,594M (2027-29), March 2025 forecast $70,951.6M; 2010 package $761.0M and $1,658.7M against GF-S $28,218M and $30,657M

Scope: 2025, 2010 and 1993 packages

View this analysis

  • Mixing periods favors whichever package is measured over its fullest period; the enactment-biennium basis is the only one available for every package.

Sources

  1. Washington State Legislature 1981 second special session revenue increase ($563 million)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Final Legislative Report prepared by legislative staff after the November 1981 special session; includes a general-fund reconciliation table.

  2. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) Spring 1982 revenue increase (alternative $326 million figure)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 1982 Final Legislative Report, a scanned document; text read by text recognition.

  3. Washington State Legislature Spring 1982 ($300 million) and June 1982 ($144.3 million) revenue increases

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Final Legislative Report for the June 1982 special session, prepared by legislative staff; summarizes both 1982 special sessions.

  4. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) General Fund-State revenue for 1981-83 ($6,892.9 million)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 1989-91 Legislative Budget Notes by House and Senate fiscal staff; table of General Fund-State revenues by source and biennium from the March 1989 forecast.

  5. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) 1993 omnibus tax package, 2ESSB 5967 ($648.7 million)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 1993-95 Legislative Budget Notes by House and Senate fiscal staff.

  6. Washington State Legislature 1993 health reform taxes, E2SSB 5304 ($251.4 million)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. Final bill report prepared by Senate staff.

  7. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) General Fund-State revenue for 1993-95 (about $16,259.6 million) and the 1994 surtax cut

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 1994 supplemental Legislative Budget Notes; the 1993-95 revenue figure is the February 1994 forecast plus 1994 legislation, not a final actual.

  8. Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (archived copy) 2010 session revenue legislation ($761.0 million in 2009-11; $1,658.7 million in 2011-13)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. June 2010 revenue forecast; its table of revenue legislation passed in the 2010 session. The forecast council is the state's nonpartisan revenue forecaster.

  9. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) 2017 revenue legislation ($2,046.5 million in 2017-19)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 2017 Legislative Budget Notes by legislative fiscal staff.

  10. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) 2019 revenue legislation ($349.6 million in 2019-21)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 2019 Legislative Budget Notes by legislative fiscal staff.

  11. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) 2021 revenue legislation (about $414 million in 2021-23)

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 2021 Legislative Budget Notes by legislative fiscal staff.

  12. Washington State Legislature (fiscal.wa.gov) 2025 revenue package by bill (2025-27), and the March 2025 forecast

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. 2025 Legislative Budget Notes by legislative fiscal staff; lists each 2025 revenue bill's estimated effect on near-general-fund revenue.

  13. Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (archived copy) General-fund and near-general-fund revenue by fiscal year, 2009-11 through 2027-29

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record of the State of Washington. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Government. September 2026 revenue forecast; history and forecast tables by fiscal year (cash basis). 2025-27 is one year actual and one year forecast.

  14. Washington Research Council Four-year split of the 2025 tax bills (Table 1) and an independent ranking since 1994

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Copyright Washington Research Council; quoted for review. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. Business-supported fiscal research group; its 2025 report calls the package the largest since at least the early 1990s. Its Table 1 cites the state forecast council.

  15. Washington Policy Center The claim being checked

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Copyright Washington Policy Center; quoted for review. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. Free-market think tank that opposed the 2025 tax bills; this is a commentary piece by its communications director.

  16. Washington State Senate Republican Caucus Partisan comparison by share of the budget

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public caucus web page; quoted for review. Linked, not redistributed

    Reliability: Party to the dispute. Has a stake in this finding. The minority caucus that voted against the 2025 tax bills; the page gives no calculation.

  17. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Redistributed as cpi_u_annual.csv

    Reliability: Government. Monthly series CUUR0000SA0 retrieved through the BLS public API and averaged by calendar year. October 2025 is missing because of the 2025 federal funding lapse.

  18. FactHub Near-general-fund revenue for 2017-19 ($46,081 million), compiled from the forecast council's history tables

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. FactHub dataset. Linked

    Reliability: Other. An earlier FactHub dataset; its revenue-by-biennium table copies the forecast council's September 2026 history table.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from cited documents: Every input figure is copied from a cited legislative or forecast document and listed in packages.csv with its source ids. build.js recomputes every derived column and saved-analysis value from packages.csv and cpi_u_annual.csv with Node.js and no other inputs.

  • Package sizes are estimates made at enactment by legislative fiscal staff or the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, not audited collections.
  • The basis is the biennium of enactment. The 1981, 1982 and 2010 packages were enacted partway through a biennium, so they cover 13 to 19 months of collections; the 1993, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2025 packages cover a fuller biennium, although some 2025 taxes started in October 2025 or January 2026.
  • General-fund definitions changed over time: the general fund before 2009 (old definition) excluded the Health Services Account, and the near general fund (NGF-O) used from 2011 adds the education legacy and other outlook accounts. Each row says which definition it uses.
  • Transportation taxes (such as the 2025 gas and diesel tax increase in ESSB 5801) and local taxes are excluded for every year.
  • Figures for 1981-1983 come from scanned legislative reports read by text recognition; two reports give $300 million and $326 million for the spring 1982 session.
  • The spring 1983 sales tax increase (SB 3258) and the 1983-85 taxes (SB 3909) have no dollar estimate in the documents we could read, so the 1981-83 total is a floor.
  • Inflation adjustment uses the national consumer price index for the year each package was enacted. The 2025 average covers 11 months because October 2025 was not collected.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article wa-2025-largest-tax-increase — version 2 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart wa-tax-packages-share-of-revenue — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart wa-tax-packages-real-dollars — version 1 (published) cites version 1

Node: dataset:wa-tax-package-sizes:1:analysis:basis-sensitivity