Five-second answer

Claim we investigated

California's homelessness grew faster than the nation's, and it has the highest share of homeless people living outside among comparable states

True. California's count rose 57% from 2015 to 2025, against 32% nationally; nearly two-thirds of its homeless sleep outside. HUD's point-in-time counts show California's homeless population rose 57% from 2015 to 2025, to about 46 per 10,000 residents, while Texas held near 9 per 10,000 and Florida fell. About 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered, against about 36% nationally. High rents explain part of the gap, and the Houston area, which cut its count by more than 60%, also received far more federal money per homeless person than Los Angeles.

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FactHub rates the claim “California's homelessness grew faster than the nation's, and it has the highest share of homeless people living outside among comparable states” True (high confidence): California's count rose 57% from 2015 to 2025, against 32% nationally; nearly two-thirds of its homeless sleep outside. Reviewed October 30, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/ca-homelessness-vs-peers/1

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. California's homeless count rose 57% from 2015 to 2025, against 32% nationally, 18% in Texas and -22% in Florida.
  • Established. About 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered in 2025, against about 36% nationally and 4% in New York.
  • Context. New York's homelessness rate is higher than California's, but its right-to-shelter rule keeps almost everyone indoors.
  • Context. California permitted about 2.4 homes per 1,000 residents a year since 2010, against about 6 in Texas and Florida; higher rents are linked to more homelessness.
  • Context. Houston cut homelessness by more than 60% since 2011, with far more federal money per homeless person than Los Angeles and cheaper rents.
  • Not shown. How much of California's gap is due to housing policy rather than demand, incomes or other factors.
Important context: Homelessness is measured once a year on a single night in each community and compiled by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). This check compares California with Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S. average, a peer group fixed in advance, using HUD's state counts from 2015 and 2025 and Census population estimates. It also looks at the Houston area, the most-cited example of a large region that cut homelessness, and at rents and housing supply, the main explanation offered for California's numbers.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 4 methods across 7 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
HUD point-in-time counts by state divided by Census population estimates; State Auditor report U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, California State Auditor United States 2015, 2023, 2025 California's count rose 57% from 2015 to 2025 to about 46 per 10,000 residents, while the U.S. count rose 32% to about 22 per 10,000, Texas held near 9 and Florida fell to about 12. The State Auditor reported a 53% increase from 2013 to 2023. One-night counts with methods that vary by community; state figures were transcribed from HUD PDF tables and rates are FactHub calculations. FactHub California State Auditor U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
HUD sheltered and unsheltered counts by state U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development United States 2025 In 2025, 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered, against 43.4% in Texas, 47.2% in Florida, 35.7% nationally and 4.0% in New York. Unsheltered counts are especially uncertain; seven California communities skipped the unsheltered count in 2024. FactHub
Federal audit agency analysis, Census permit data and state and academic research Government Accountability Office, Legislative Analyst's Office, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco United States 2015, 2020, 2025 GAO found a $100 rise in monthly rent was associated with about 9% more homelessness. California permitted about 2.4 homes per 1,000 residents a year from 2010 to 2025, against about 6 in Texas and Florida, and the Legislative Analyst's Office attributed underbuilding to local resistance, environmental policies and limited land. A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco paper argues supply rules do not explain price differences across cities. The links from regulation to rents and from rents to homelessness are associations, and economists disagree about the first. U.S. Government Accountability Office Legislative Analyst's Office FactHub Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Regional homeless counts and federal funding comparisons Coalition for the Homeless of Houston/Harris County, CalMatters United States 2011, 2021, 2024 The Houston area reports a reduction of more than 60% since 2011 under a coordinated Housing First system. In 2021 it received about $14,483 in federal homelessness funding per homeless person, against $2,386 in Los Angeles County, and one-bedroom rents were about $1,000 a month lower. No independent study isolates what caused Houston's decline; critics say its count definitions and encampment enforcement understate homelessness. Coalition for the Homeless of Houston/Harris County CalMatters (via GV Wire)
1. California's homelessness grew faster than the nation's HUD point-in-time counts by state divided by Census population estimates; State Auditor report

California's count rose 57% from 2015 to 2025 to about 46 per 10,000 residents, while the U.S. count rose 32% to about 22 per 10,000, Texas held near 9 and Florida fell to about 12. The State Auditor reported a 53% increase from 2013 to 2023.

Limit: One-night counts with methods that vary by community; state figures were transcribed from HUD PDF tables and rates are FactHub calculations.

Verify: California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025 Homelessness in California (Report 2023-102.1, April 9, 2024) HUD releases 2025 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report (May 29, 2026)

California's homelessness rate rose by more than half since 2015; Texas's was flatHomeless people per 10,000 residents, 2015 and 2025, from HUD point-in-time counts.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[0,80],"series":[{"name":"California","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"Texas","color":"#b6542c"},{"name":"Florida","color":"#684b9b"},{"name":"New York","color":"#2f7d4a"},{"name":"U.S.","color":"#9a6b16"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":329.56,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"29.6"},{"series":1,"x":90,"y":437.71,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"8.6"},{"series":2,"x":90,"y":390.85,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"17.7"},{"series":3,"x":90,"y":252.31,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"44.6"},{"series":4,"x":90,"y":391.36,"xLabel":"2015","yLabel":"17.6"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":244.07,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"46.2"},{"series":1,"x":926,"y":436.68,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"8.8"},{"series":2,"x":926,"y":420.71,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"11.9"},{"series":3,"x":926,"y":107.08,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"72.8"},{"series":4,"x":926,"y":369.73,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"21.8"}]}California's homelessness rate rose by more than half since 2015; Texas's was flat02040608020152025YearCaliforniaTexasFloridaNew YorkU.S.FactHub · Homeless per 10,000 residents
Homeless people per 10,000 residents, 2015 and 2025. Source: HUD point-in-time counts and Census population estimates, FactHub calculation. View source chart
2. Nearly two-thirds of homeless Californians sleep outside HUD sheltered and unsheltered counts by state

In 2025, 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered, against 43.4% in Texas, 47.2% in Florida, 35.7% nationally and 4.0% in New York.

Limit: Unsheltered counts are especially uncertain; seven California communities skipped the unsheltered count in 2024.

Verify: California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

3. Rents and housing supply explain part of the gap Federal audit agency analysis, Census permit data and state and academic research

GAO found a $100 rise in monthly rent was associated with about 9% more homelessness. California permitted about 2.4 homes per 1,000 residents a year from 2010 to 2025, against about 6 in Texas and Florida, and the Legislative Analyst's Office attributed underbuilding to local resistance, environmental policies and limited land. A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco paper argues supply rules do not explain price differences across cities.

Limit: The links from regulation to rents and from rents to homelessness are associations, and economists disagree about the first.

Verify: Homelessness: Better HUD Oversight of Data Collection Could Improve Estimates of Homeless Population (GAO-20-433) California's High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences (March 17, 2015) California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025 Supply Constraints Do Not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities (Working Paper 2025-06)

4. Houston cut homelessness, with more federal money per person Regional homeless counts and federal funding comparisons

The Houston area reports a reduction of more than 60% since 2011 under a coordinated Housing First system. In 2021 it received about $14,483 in federal homelessness funding per homeless person, against $2,386 in Los Angeles County, and one-bedroom rents were about $1,000 a month lower.

Limit: No independent study isolates what caused Houston's decline; critics say its count definitions and encampment enforcement understate homelessness.

Verify: 2024 Point-in-Time Count Results (June 18, 2024) 4 reasons why California can't (or won't) match Texas' approach to homelessness (July 2, 2023)

Common questions

“New York's homelessness is even worse than California's.”

Short answer: Different problem

New York's rate (about 73 per 10,000) is higher and grew faster. But about 96% of its homeless residents are sheltered under its right-to-shelter rule, against about a third in California. The claim checked here is about growth relative to the nation and people living outside, where California stands out.

“California's homelessness is caused by high rents, not government failure.”

Short answer: Partly

Rents are the strongest predictor of homelessness across regions. But California's high rents are partly tied to how little housing it allows to be built, which state analysts attribute to local land-use rules and environmental review. Some economists disagree, pointing to income-driven demand.

“Houston proves homelessness can be solved without California-level spending.”

Short answer: Not quite

Houston's decline came with about six times more federal homelessness money per homeless person than Los Angeles County in 2021, plus cheaper rents. It shows coordination and cheaper housing can bring counts down, not that low spending does.

Conclusion

Both parts of the claim hold up. HUD's counts put California's homeless population at about 115,700 in 2015 and 181,900 in 2025, a 57% increase, while the national count rose 32%. The state's rate rose from about 30 to 46 homeless people per 10,000 residents; Texas stayed near 9 and Florida fell from about 18 to 12. The State Auditor separately reported a 53% increase from 2013 to 2023. And 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered in 2025, against about 36% nationally, 43% in Texas, 47% in Florida and 4% in New York. New York is the important exception on total homelessness: its rate, about 73 per 10,000, is higher than California's and grew faster. But New York's right-to-shelter rule keeps the great majority of its homeless residents indoors, so California's distinctive problem is people living on the street. The main counterpoint is housing costs. The Government Accountability Office found that a $100 rise in median monthly rent was associated with about 9% more homelessness, and LA County's median rent is about $560 a month above Houston's. That counterpoint is partly a policy story: California permitted about 2.4 homes per 1,000 residents a year from 2010 to 2025, against about 6 in Texas and Florida, and the Legislative Analyst's Office has blamed local resistance, environmental review and limited land for underbuilding. Economists disagree on how much regulation, rather than demand, drives rents. The Houston area cut its count by more than 60% since 2011 through a coordinated Housing First system, the same approach California adopted statewide in 2016. But it did so with cheaper housing and, in 2021, about $14,483 in federal homelessness funding per homeless person, against $2,386 in Los Angeles County. Houston shows numbers can fall; it does not show they can fall cheaply.

How we checked

  1. Fixed a peer group in advance: Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S. average.
  2. Took total and unsheltered homeless counts for 2015 and 2025 from HUD's state reports and divided by Census population estimates.
  3. Compared housing permits per resident from Census data, and reviewed GAO, LAO and Federal Reserve research on rents, supply and homelessness.
  4. Reviewed the Houston area's counts and federal funding compared with Los Angeles.
  5. Recorded figures and calculations in a FactHub dataset.

Editorial note: Scope: HUD point-in-time counts for California, Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S., 2015 and 2025, plus the Houston area. State counts were transcribed from HUD PDF tables and rates are FactHub calculations. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: FactHub is an independent fact-checking project.

Conflicts: No known conflicts of interest.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. FactHub record FactHub. California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

    FactHub's peer-comparison dataset, including HUD counts, rates and housing permits.

    • From 2015 to 2025 the homeless count rose 57.2% in California, 32.0% in the U.S., 18.4% in Texas and 64.9% in New York, and fell 22.3% in Florida.

    • California's rate rose from 29.6 to 46.2 per 10,000 residents; Texas went from 8.6 to 8.8, Florida from 17.7 to 11.9, New York from 44.6 to 72.8 and the U.S. from 17.6 to 21.8.

    • In 2025, 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered, against 43.4% in Texas, 47.2% in Florida, 4.0% in New York and 35.7% nationally.

    • Qualifies: From 2010 to 2025 California permitted about 2.4 housing units per 1,000 residents a year, against 6.3 in Texas, 6.0 in Florida, 1.9 in New York and 3.8 nationally.

  2. Government California State Auditor. Homelessness in California (Report 2023-102.1, April 9, 2024)

    State audit of California's homelessness funding.

    Reliability: Independent state auditor reporting to the Legislature.

    • More than 180,000 Californians experienced homelessness in 2023, a 53% increase from 2013.

      What the source says
      More than 180,000 Californians experienced homelessness in 2023—a 53 percent increase from 2013.
      Introduction
  3. Government U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. HUD releases 2025 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report (May 29, 2026)

    HUD press release on the January 2025 national count.

    Reliability: Federal agency; the release also makes political arguments about Housing First, which this check does not rely on.

    • Qualifies: About 745,652 people were homeless nationwide on a night in January 2025, including 266,320 living on the street.

      What the source says
      745,652 people were homeless, including 266,320 people living on the street on a single night in January 2025
      First paragraph
  4. Government U.S. Government Accountability Office. Homelessness: Better HUD Oversight of Data Collection Could Improve Estimates of Homeless Population (GAO-20-433)

    Federal audit agency report including a statistical analysis of factors associated with homelessness.

    Reliability: Nonpartisan congressional audit agency.

    • Qualifies: A $100 increase in median monthly rent was associated with about 9% more homelessness.

      What the source says
      our statistical analysis found median rent increases of $100 a month were associated with a 9% increase in homelessness in the areas we examined.
      Fast Facts
  5. Government Legislative Analyst's Office. California's High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences (March 17, 2015)

    The state's nonpartisan fiscal adviser on why California housing is expensive.

    Reliability: Nonpartisan adviser to the Legislature; the report analyzes 1980-2010 data.

    • Qualifies: The LAO attributed limited home building in coastal California to community resistance, environmental policies, weak fiscal incentives and limited land.

      What the source says
      In these areas, community resistance to housing, environmental policies, lack of fiscal incentives for local governments to approve housing, and limited land constrains new housing construction.
      Executive Summary
  6. Academic Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Supply Constraints Do Not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities (Working Paper 2025-06)

    Economists' working paper arguing income-driven demand, not measured supply constraints, explains differences in housing growth.

    Reliability: Federal Reserve research staff working paper; not the official view of the Federal Reserve and not peer reviewed.

    • Contradicts: The authors argue that relaxing housing supply rules may not affect affordability.

      What the source says
      relaxing regulatory housing supply constraints may not affect housing affordability
      Abstract
  7. Other Coalition for the Homeless of Houston/Harris County. 2024 Point-in-Time Count Results (June 18, 2024)

    The lead agency for the Houston-area homeless system on its 2024 count.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Runs the system whose results it reports; critics say its count definitions and encampment enforcement understate homelessness.

    • Qualifies: The Houston region reports more than a 60% reduction in homelessness since 2011.

      What the source says
      Overall, the region has seen more than a 60% reduction in homelessness since 2011.
      Results summary
  8. News report CalMatters (via GV Wire). 4 reasons why California can't (or won't) match Texas' approach to homelessness (July 2, 2023)

    Nonprofit news analysis comparing Houston and Los Angeles.

    Reliability: Nonprofit newsroom; federal funding figures are HUD 2021 awards divided by homeless counts.

    • Qualifies: The Houston area received about $14,483 in federal homelessness funding per homeless person in 2021.

      What the source says
      or about $14,483 for every homeless person in the region.
      Federal funding section

    • Qualifies: Los Angeles County received about $2,386 in federal homelessness funding per homeless person.

      What the source says
      that equates to just $2,386 per unhoused person.
      Federal funding section

    • Qualifies: Median one-bedroom rent was $1,202 in Houston and $2,198 in Los Angeles.

      What the source says
      In Houston, Texas’ biggest city, that price is $1,202. Compare that to Los Angeles, California’s largest city, where the median rate is $2,198.
      Housing costs section
  9. FactHub dataset California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

    • Tables: peer

      Saved analysis homeless-change

    • Tables: peer

      Saved analysis homeless-rates

    • Tables: peer

      Saved analysis permits

  10. FactHub chart ca-peer-homeless-rate-chart

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