FactHub curated dataset

California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

Comparable indicators of government spending and results for California and a fixed peer group (Texas, Florida, New York, the U.S. average), with Mississippi as a schools case study: state spending and taxes per resident, homelessness, housing permits, school spending and test scores, Medicaid spending and coverage, and high-speed rail costs.

Coverage: 2010-2026 (varies by indicator)

Node: dataset:ca-peer-spending-results:1

What this dataset measures

Built to test whether California's spending growth has produced results that outpace comparable states. The peer group (the other three most populous states plus the U.S. average) was fixed in advance to avoid choosing favorable comparisons; Mississippi is included only as a labeled schools case study and rail projects are the main U.S. comparables.

Curated data tables

These related tables form this versioned dataset release. Each table has its own downloadable file and field definitions.

Peer indicators

One row per indicator, geography and period. Codes: spend_pc (state spending per resident, USD); tax_pc (state and local taxes per resident, USD); homeless_rate (per 10,000 residents); unsheltered_pct; permits_rate (housing units permitted per 1,000 residents, annual average); pupil_spend (current spending per pupil, USD); naep_change (sum of 2013-2024 changes across four NAEP tests, points); naep_g4r (grade 4 reading scale score); naep_adj_rank (Urban Institute adjusted average rank, 1 = best); mcaid_real_growth (percent); mcaid_per_enrollee (USD); uninsured_pct; rail_cost_mi (USD millions per mile).

Unit of observation: Indicator, geography and period

View this table

peer.csv text/csv · 3.5 KB (3,547 bytes)
5 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
code string Indicator code (see table description) — observed
geo string State postal code, US, or rail project name — observed
period string Year, fiscal year or range — observed
value number Indicator value in the units given for its code varies by code derived
source_id string Id of the source in sources[] — observed

Saved analyses

Growth in state spending per resident after inflation, FY2012 to FY2024

Question: How fast did state spending per resident grow in California compared with its peers?

Result: After inflation, California's state spending per resident grew 61%, against 26% in New York and Florida, 25% for the U.S. and -5% in Texas.

Operation: (spend_pc 2024 / spend_pc 2012) / (CPI-U 2024 / CPI-U 2012) - 1, with CPI-U annual averages 313.698 and 229.586

Scope: peer table, spend_pc

View this analysis

  • Includes federal funds; California's growth partly reflects federally funded Medicaid expansion.
  • FY2012 was a low point after California's budget cuts, which raises its growth.
  • FY2024 figures are KFF-adjusted NASBO data; FY2012 figures are raw NASBO totals.

State and local taxes per resident, FY2023

Question: How much do residents pay in state and local taxes in California compared with its peers?

Result: California collected $8,942 per resident (8th nationally), against $7,038 for the U.S., $5,737 in Texas and $5,141 in Florida; New York collected $12,506.

Operation: Transcribed

Scope: peer table, tax_pc

View this analysis

  • Per-resident collections partly reflect California's higher incomes and include taxes paid by businesses and nonresidents.

Homeless people per 10,000 residents, 2015 and 2025

Question: How has homelessness changed in California compared with its peers?

Result: California rose from 29.6 to 46.2 per 10,000; Texas was flat at about 9, Florida fell from 17.7 to 11.9, New York rose from 44.6 to 72.8 and the U.S. from 17.6 to 21.8.

Operation: HUD state counts divided by Census population estimates, per 10,000

Scope: peer table, homeless_rate

View this analysis

  • FactHub calculation; HUD's own rounded rates differ slightly (e.g., New York 73 and the U.S. about 22 in 2025).
  • The U.S. count includes territories.

Change in homeless count, 2015 to 2025, and unsheltered share in 2025

Question: Did California's homelessness grow faster than its peers', and how many are unsheltered?

Result: California's count rose 57% (U.S. 32%); 63.5% of homeless Californians were unsheltered in 2025, against 35.7% nationally and 4.0% in New York, which guarantees shelter.

Operation: Percent change in HUD total counts; unsheltered share = unsheltered / total

Scope: peer table, homeless_rate and unsheltered_pct

View this analysis

  • New York's right-to-shelter rule keeps most homeless people indoors, which raises its counted total relative to street homelessness.

Housing units permitted per 1,000 residents, annual average 2010-2025

Question: How much housing did California authorize compared with its peers?

Result: California permitted about 2.4 homes per 1,000 residents a year, against about 6 in Texas and Florida and 3.8 nationally.

Operation: Sum of monthly permits by calendar year divided by population, averaged over 2010-2025

Scope: peer table, permits_rate

View this analysis

  • California's population grew only about 5.5% over the period, so per added resident it permitted more homes than Texas or Florida.
  • Economists disagree on how much regulation, rather than demand, explains the gap.

Growth in current spending per pupil, FY2013 to FY2024 (nominal)

Question: How fast did school spending per pupil grow in California compared with its peers?

Result: California's per-pupil spending rose 126%, about twice the U.S. (65%), New York (61%), Texas (55%), Mississippi (52%) and Florida (51%).

Operation: pupil_spend 2024 / pupil_spend 2013 - 1

Scope: peer table, pupil_spend

View this analysis

  • Nominal and not adjusted for living costs; PPIC finds California ranks 31st after adjusting for labor costs.
  • FY2013 followed deep recession-era cuts in California, which raises its growth.
  • Falling enrollment raises per-pupil figures.

Change in NAEP scores, 2013 to 2024, summed across four tests

Question: How did student test scores change in California compared with its peers?

Result: Mississippi gained 16 points across the four tests; California lost 17, less than the U.S. (-32), Florida and New York (-35) and Texas (-37).

Operation: Sum of 2013-to-2024 changes in grade 4 and 8 reading and math average scale scores

Scope: peer table, naep_change

View this analysis

  • A crude summary; individual changes were not all tested for statistical significance.
  • Unadjusted for demographic change.

Demographically adjusted NAEP rank, 2022

Question: How do states rank once differences in student populations are accounted for?

Result: After adjusting for demographics, Florida and Mississippi averaged rank 3.5, Texas 4.8, New York 18.5 and California 19.0; California improved from 33.0 in 2019.

Operation: Transcribed from Urban Institute Table 1 (average of four test ranks; 1 = best)

Scope: peer table, naep_adj_rank

View this analysis

  • 2022 edition; 2024 adjusted ranks were not extracted.

Grade 4 reading scores, Mississippi, California and the U.S., 2013 and 2024

Question: How did Mississippi's early reading results change after its 2013 literacy law, compared with California and the nation?

Result: Mississippi's grade 4 reading score rose from 209 to 219, above the nation's 214; California's went from 213 to 212.

Operation: Transcribed from NAEP state snapshots

Scope: peer table, naep_g4r

View this analysis

  • California's 2024 score was not significantly different from the national average.
  • Part of Mississippi's grade 4 gain reflects holding back third graders who do not read at grade level.

Medicaid spending growth, cost per enrollee and uninsured rates

Question: Did California's Medicaid spending grow faster than its peers', and what happened to coverage?

Result: California's total Medicaid spending grew 77% after inflation (U.S. 55%); its cost per enrollee ($8,745) is near the U.S. ($8,606); its uninsured rate fell 11.1 points, the most in the group.

Operation: Real growth from MACPAC totals with CPI-U; other values transcribed

Scope: peer table, mcaid_real_growth, mcaid_per_enrollee, uninsured_pct

View this analysis

  • Totals, not per enrollee; ACA expansion (CA, NY) was mostly federally funded.
  • Per-enrollee figures are preliminary and exclude supplemental payments.

Approximate cost per mile of high-speed and intercity rail projects

Question: How does California high-speed rail's cost per mile compare with other projects?

Result: California's Phase 1 works out to about $255 million per mile, about twice Texas Central's estimate, 2.6 times Brightline West's and about 5 times the World Bank's European midpoint.

Operation: Project cost / route miles; World Bank per-km midpoints x 1.609

Scope: peer table, rail_cost_mi

View this analysis

  • Years and currencies differ and are not inflation-adjusted.
  • California includes mountain tunneling; Brightline Florida is not true high-speed rail.
  • Texas Central uses the lower $30 billion estimate; USDOT's $40 billion would give about $167 million per mile.

Sources

  1. NASBO State Expenditure Report, Fiscal 2011-2013, Table 1 (mirror at prisonpolicy.org) FY2012 total state expenditures (capital inclusive), divided by 2012 ACS population (FactHub calculation).

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Other. National Association of State Budget Officers; standardized state spending survey, all funds including federal. Read via a third-party mirror.

  2. KFF State Health Facts, Per Capita State Spending (from NASBO State Expenditure Report FY2023-25) SFY2024 total state spending per resident.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Third-party compilation. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Other. KFF adjusts NASBO figures; not identical in method to the raw FY2012 NASBO totals.

  3. Tax Foundation, State and Local Tax Collections Per Capita by State, 2026 (May 11, 2026) FY2023 state and local tax collections per resident, from Census Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Third-party compilation. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Market-oriented think tank compiling Census data; per-resident collections include taxes paid by businesses and nonresidents and are not shares of income.

  4. HUD Continuum of Care Homeless Populations and Subpopulations reports, by state, 2015 and 2025 Total and unsheltered point-in-time counts by state; rates per 10,000 are FactHub calculations using Census population estimates.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Federal compilation of local one-night counts; methods vary by community and counts likely understate homelessness. Figures transcribed from PDF tables (same URL pattern for TX, FL, NY and the national file).

  5. Census Building Permits Survey via FRED (CABPPRIV, TXBPPRIV, FLBPPRIV, NYBPPRIV, PERMITNSA) and Census population (CAPOP etc.) Annual average new private housing units authorized per 1,000 residents, 2010-2025 (FactHub calculation).

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Permits count authorizations, not completions; monthly state figures include Census imputation.

  6. U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Annual Survey of School System Finances release (May 7, 2026) and state table reproductions FY2024 current spending per pupil: U.S., New York and Mississippi from the Census release; California, Texas and Florida from secondary reproductions of Census summary tables.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Not adjusted for inflation or cost-of-living differences between areas.

  7. U.S. Census Bureau, Public Education Finances 2013 (release CB15-98, June 2, 2015), as reproduced by Ballotpedia FY2013 current spending per pupil.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Census figures read through a reproduction of Table 20; California's figure matches contemporary news coverage.

  8. NCES, NAEP State Snapshot Reports, 2013 and 2024 Average scale scores for public school students, grades 4 and 8, reading and math (other states' PDFs follow the same naming pattern).

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Changes from 2013 to 2024 were not all tested for statistical significance; NCES compares 2024 with 2022 and the first assessment year.

  9. Urban Institute, States' Demographically Adjusted Performance on the 2022 Nation's Report Card (Dec. 4, 2024) Average rank across four NAEP tests after adjusting for student demographics.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Research report. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Academic. Adjusts for age, gender, race, poverty, special education and English-learner status; 2024 ranks were not extracted.

  10. MACPAC MACStats, Medicaid Spending by State, FY2013 (March 2014, Table 6) and FY2024 (January 2026, Exhibit 16) Total Medicaid spending by state; real growth computed by FactHub with CPI-U.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Congressional advisory commission using CMS-64 data; California and New York expanded Medicaid under the ACA, Texas and Florida did not.

  11. KFF, Medicaid Spending per Full-Benefit Enrollee, 2024 (preliminary) Spending per full-benefit enrollee by state.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Third-party compilation. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Other. Preliminary T-MSIS-based estimates; excludes drug rebates and most supplemental payments.

  12. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year, Table S2701 (2013 and 2025) Percent uninsured by state.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Survey estimates with margins of error of about 0.1-0.2 points.

  13. Legislative Analyst's Office handout, High-Speed Rail Draft 2026 Business Plan (Senate Transportation Committee, April 27, 2026) Phase I cost estimate of $126 billion for the ~494-mile system; FactHub divides to get cost per mile.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative analyst summarizing the Authority's draft plan.

  14. Texas Tribune, Texas high-speed rail planning grant cut (April 14, 2025) Texas Central estimated cost of more than $30 billion for roughly 240 miles (length approximate).

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. News article. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: News report. News report; USDOT put the cost above $40 billion, which would raise the per-mile figure.

  15. ENR, Brightline West costs rise 35% (Oct. 10, 2025) Brightline West reported cost of about $21.5 billion for 218 miles.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. News article. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: News report. Trade-press figure not confirmed by the company.

  16. Skift, Brightline opens $6 billion Florida rail line (Sept. 22, 2023) Brightline Florida cost of about $6 billion for 235 miles at up to 125 mph.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. News article. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: News report. Brightline is not true high-speed rail and partly uses an existing freight corridor; its parent companies filed for Chapter 11 in September 2026.

  17. World Bank, Cost of high speed rail in China one third lower than in other countries (July 10, 2014) Typical infrastructure unit costs: China $17-21 million per km, Europe $25-39 million per km; FactHub converts midpoints to per-mile.

    Retrieved October 30, 2026. Public agency document. Figures only; linked, not rehosted.

    Reliability: Intergovernmental. 2014 dollars, not adjusted; infrastructure cost only.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Each row was transcribed from the source named in source_id; rates, growth percentages and per-mile costs are FactHub calculations described in each analysis (Python script kept by the curator).

  • Several figures were read from PDF tables or secondary reproductions of official tables rather than machine-readable files; see each source's role.
  • Spending figures are nominal unless an analysis says it adjusts for inflation (CPI-U); none adjust for differences in living costs between states.
  • Per-resident state spending includes federal funds, which grew faster in states that expanded Medicaid.
  • Point-in-time homeless counts are one-night estimates with methods that vary by community.
  • Rail costs per mile combine different years, currencies and project types and are approximate.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article ca-high-speed-rail-cost — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Article ca-school-spending-vs-peers — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Article ca-homelessness-vs-peers — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Article ca-state-spending-vs-peers — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Article medi-cal-spending-accountability — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Article mississippi-reading-gains — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart rail-cost-per-mile-chart — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart ca-peer-homeless-rate-chart — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart ca-peer-medicaid-growth-chart — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart ca-peer-pupil-spend-chart — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart ca-peer-budget-growth-chart — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart ms-ca-reading-chart — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Briefing la-homelessness-money-accountability — version 3 (published) cites version 1