The short version

Claim we investigated

Washington's business climate is getting worse.

Mostly true. New business starts, job growth and rankings have slipped since 2019, though jobs aren't falling and big employers stay. Since 2019, Washington's business starts fell from 89% to 77% of the U.S. rate, its job-growth lead vanished, and its tax ranking fell from 33rd to 45th. Jobs aren't falling, and big employers stay.

Quote or cite this fact-check
FactHub rates the claim “Washington's business climate is getting worse” Mostly true (moderate confidence): New business starts, job growth and rankings have slipped since 2019, though jobs aren't falling and big employers stay. Reviewed November 3, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-big-employers-not-leaving/4

Key points

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. Washington starts fewer businesses than it used to: filings to start likely employers fell from 89% of the U.S. rate per person in 2015-2019 to 77% in 2020-2025.
  • Established. Washington's job-growth lead is gone. Private jobs grew 14.4% in the five years before 2020, against 9.0% nationally, but 4.5% since, against 4.9%.
  • Established. Washington fell from 33rd to 45th on the Tax Foundation's state tax ranking (2020 to 2026), and from 32nd to 47th on CNBC's cost of doing business (2019 to 2026).
  • Established. Big employers are cutting jobs but staying: Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks and Meta filed layoff notices for about 13,900 Washington workers since 2025, yet all keep headquarters here.
  • Context. Washington's count of business locations slipped 0.5% in the year to early 2026, while the U.S. count grew 3.6%. Both figures are preliminary.
  • Not shown. The data don't show a wave of closures or falling jobs. Washington's closing rate is only slightly above the U.S. rate, and private jobs are roughly flat.
Important context: Many Washington residents, employers and business groups say the state has become a harder place to do business. They point to new taxes, layoffs at big employers and companies opening offices elsewhere. This check asks whether that is true, judged against Washington's own record before 2020 and against the U.S. It covers how many businesses start and close, job growth, published tax and business rankings, and what big employers are doing. Washington's new 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million starts in 2028, so it is not yet in the data.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 8 methods across 13 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (applications likely to become employers) per 1,000 residents, 2015-2025 and January-September 2026; QCEW private establishment counts, 2019-2026. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States 2015, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2026 Washington's filings to start likely employers were 89% of the U.S. rate per person in 2015-2019, 77% in 2020-2025 and 81% in 2025. Filings rose 4.9% in January-September 2026, in step with the U.S. Washington's count of private business locations rose 5.8% from 2023 to 2025 (U.S. 2.1%) but slipped 0.5% in the year to early 2026, preliminary (U.S. 3.6%). Applications are plans, not openings. Washington's business count fell about 20% in 2022-23 while its jobs rose, which points to a change in how employer accounts are recorded, so long comparisons of the count are unreliable. FactHub dataset: business filings before and since 2020 FactHub dataset: business filings per person FactHub dataset: business filings in 2026 FactHub dataset: business counts and private jobs
Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics: private jobs, seasonally adjusted, Washington and U.S., compared over set periods from December 2014 to September 2026. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States 2014, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025, 2026 Washington private jobs grew 14.4% from December 2014 to December 2019, against 9.0% for the U.S. From February 2020 to September 2026 they grew 4.5%, against 4.9%, and from December 2022, 2.2% against 2.8%. In the latest year, preliminary state estimates show Washington ahead, 1.2% against 0.5%, while federal tax records show a 0.2% dip. State monthly estimates are revised each year against tax records, and the latest months are preliminary. FactHub dataset: private job growth by period FactHub dataset: business counts and private jobs
Washington's ranks in the Tax Foundation's 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index, using that edition's ranks for past years, and in CNBC's America's Top States for Business for 2019 and 2026. Tax Foundation, CNBC United States 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2026 Washington ranked 33rd on the Tax Foundation index in 2020 and 2021, 38th in 2022, 46th from 2023 to 2025 and 45th in 2026. On CNBC's ranking it went from 5th overall in 2019 to 11th in 2026, from 32nd to 47th on cost of doing business, and from 35th to 40th on business friendliness. Rankings are published judgments. The Tax Foundation favors low, broad-based taxes and scores tax structure only. CNBC reweights its categories each year, so year-to-year moves partly reflect method changes. FactHub dataset: Washington's tax and business rankings
Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics: private business openings (establishment births) and closings that last a year (deaths), as a percent of all businesses each quarter, Washington and U.S., 2014 to early 2026. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States 2014, 2019, 2024, 2025, 2026 Before the pandemic, Washington's openings beat its closings by 0.22 points a quarter, against 0.35 for the U.S. In the four quarters to mid-2025, Washington's closings, 25,331, outnumbered its openings, 23,210, while U.S. openings still beat closings. Washington's closing rate was slightly above the U.S. rate, 3.33% against 3.22% a quarter. Its opening rate was 88% of the U.S. rate from mid-2024 to early 2026, against 91% before the pandemic. Washington's closing counts jump in some quarters, such as early 2023 and early 2024, likely from cleanups of inactive employer accounts, so totals that include them overstate closures. Closings are published about three quarters after openings. FactHub dataset: business openings and closings FactHub dataset: business opening rate compared with the U.S.
Read the business address each company reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) through the EDGAR submissions API, and the cover page of recent annual reports (Form 10-K), for 14 large Washington-based public companies. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (company filings) United States 2025, 2026 All 14 list Washington addresses. Microsoft is in Redmond, Costco in Issaquah, T-Mobile US and PACCAR in Bellevue, Columbia Banking System in Tacoma and Fortive in Everett. The other eight, including Amazon and Starbucks, are in Seattle. Nordstrom went private in 2025, so its latest filing is from that March. An address on a filing is what the company reports and can lag a shift of executives, as at Columbia Bank. The list covers well-known public companies, not every large private employer. FactHub dataset: company headquarters Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC EDGAR) Starbucks Corporation (SEC EDGAR) Costco Wholesale Corporation (SEC EDGAR) T-Mobile US, Inc. (SEC EDGAR)
Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) size data: private worksites with 1,000 or more employees in the first quarter of each year, Washington and U.S., 2019-2026. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington Employment Security Department United States 2019, 2022, 2023, 2025, 2026 Washington had 117 such worksites in 2019, 119 in 2022, 137 in 2023, 153 in 2025 and 154 in 2026, a 32% rise. The U.S. count rose 7%, from 6,329 to 6,762. But jobs at Washington's sites fell 0.7%, from 514,829 in March 2025 to 511,149 in March 2026, while jobs at U.S. sites fell 0.2%. These are worksites, not companies, and a company headquartered elsewhere can run one here. Washington's count stepped up in 2023, when its overall business counts show a recording change, so part of that step may be administrative; the count did not fall before or after it. 2026 figures are preliminary. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics FactHub dataset: very large worksites FactHub dataset: very large worksites by period
Read company statements and news reports on Washington companies that moved a headquarters or opened a major office elsewhere from 2023 to 2026. InvestmentNews, The Columbian, Southern Business & Development, KIRO 7, Trade & Industry Development United States 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 Fisher Investments moved its headquarters to Texas in March 2023, right after the state Supreme Court upheld the capital gains tax, but kept its Camas offices open. Avalara now lists Durham, North Carolina, after a private-equity buyout. Payscale, remote since 2022, named Boston its headquarters. Starbucks plans a Nashville office with up to 2,000 jobs over several years, while Seattle stays its global headquarters. Columbia Bank is moving most executive roles to Arizona, citing taxes. These are the cases we found reported, not a complete list. Companies' stated reasons are their own account; Fisher and Columbia tied their moves to Washington taxes, Payscale's followed remote work, and Avalara's followed a change of owner. InvestmentNews The Columbian Southern Business & Development KIRO 7 Trade & Industry Development
All 808 layoff and closure notices in the Employment Security Department's WARN database, June 2018 to November 2, 2026, summed by year and employer; farm and orchard employers flagged by name. Read the federal and state notice laws. Washington Employment Security Department, Washington State Legislature, U.S. Congress (federal WARN Act) United States 2019, 2020, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 Notices covered 31,257 workers in 2025 and 28,731 in 2026 through November 2, the most since 2020's 46,824. Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks and Meta filed for about 13,900 since January 2025. A state law in effect since July 27, 2025, covers employers with 50 or more workers and counts layoffs statewide; the federal law covers employers with 100 or more. Farm and orchard notices went from none in the year before to 13,479 workers in the year after. Notices are planned layoffs, not confirmed job losses, and the counts before and after July 2025 are not comparable. Farm employers are flagged by name, so some growers are counted as other employers. FactHub dataset: layoff notices by year FactHub dataset: largest filers FactHub dataset: notices around the state law Washington State Legislature Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School Washington Employment Security Department
1. New business filings: Washington fell further behind the U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics (applications likely to become employers) per 1,000 residents, 2015-2025 and January-September 2026; QCEW private establishment counts, 2019-2026.

Washington's filings to start likely employers were 89% of the U.S. rate per person in 2015-2019, 77% in 2020-2025 and 81% in 2025. Filings rose 4.9% in January-September 2026, in step with the U.S. Washington's count of private business locations rose 5.8% from 2023 to 2025 (U.S. 2.1%) but slipped 0.5% in the year to early 2026, preliminary (U.S. 3.6%).

Limit: Applications are plans, not openings. Washington's business count fell about 20% in 2022-23 while its jobs rose, which points to a change in how employer accounts are recorded, so long comparisons of the count are unreliable.

Verify: New business filings per person before and since 2020 New business filings per 1,000 residents, Washington and U.S. New business filings, January-September 2026 versus 2025 Change in private business counts and private jobs

2. Job records: Washington lost its job-growth lead Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics: private jobs, seasonally adjusted, Washington and U.S., compared over set periods from December 2014 to September 2026.

Washington private jobs grew 14.4% from December 2014 to December 2019, against 9.0% for the U.S. From February 2020 to September 2026 they grew 4.5%, against 4.9%, and from December 2022, 2.2% against 2.8%. In the latest year, preliminary state estimates show Washington ahead, 1.2% against 0.5%, while federal tax records show a 0.2% dip.

Limit: State monthly estimates are revised each year against tax records, and the latest months are preliminary.

Verify: Private job growth, Washington and U.S., by period Change in private business counts and private jobs

3. Rankings: Washington fell on tax and cost measures Washington's ranks in the Tax Foundation's 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index, using that edition's ranks for past years, and in CNBC's America's Top States for Business for 2019 and 2026.

Washington ranked 33rd on the Tax Foundation index in 2020 and 2021, 38th in 2022, 46th from 2023 to 2025 and 45th in 2026. On CNBC's ranking it went from 5th overall in 2019 to 11th in 2026, from 32nd to 47th on cost of doing business, and from 35th to 40th on business friendliness.

Limit: Rankings are published judgments. The Tax Foundation favors low, broad-based taxes and scores tax structure only. CNBC reweights its categories each year, so year-to-year moves partly reflect method changes.

Verify: Change in Washington's tax and business rankings

4. Business openings and closings: fewer openings than the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics: private business openings (establishment births) and closings that last a year (deaths), as a percent of all businesses each quarter, Washington and U.S., 2014 to early 2026.

Before the pandemic, Washington's openings beat its closings by 0.22 points a quarter, against 0.35 for the U.S. In the four quarters to mid-2025, Washington's closings, 25,331, outnumbered its openings, 23,210, while U.S. openings still beat closings. Washington's closing rate was slightly above the U.S. rate, 3.33% against 3.22% a quarter. Its opening rate was 88% of the U.S. rate from mid-2024 to early 2026, against 91% before the pandemic.

Limit: Washington's closing counts jump in some quarters, such as early 2023 and early 2024, likely from cleanups of inactive employer accounts, so totals that include them overstate closures. Closings are published about three quarters after openings.

Verify: Business openings and closings by period Washington's business opening rate compared with the U.S.

5. Company filings: the biggest Washington companies still list headquarters here Read the business address each company reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) through the EDGAR submissions API, and the cover page of recent annual reports (Form 10-K), for 14 large Washington-based public companies.

All 14 list Washington addresses. Microsoft is in Redmond, Costco in Issaquah, T-Mobile US and PACCAR in Bellevue, Columbia Banking System in Tacoma and Fortive in Everett. The other eight, including Amazon and Starbucks, are in Seattle. Nordstrom went private in 2025, so its latest filing is from that March.

Limit: An address on a filing is what the company reports and can lag a shift of executives, as at Columbia Bank. The list covers well-known public companies, not every large private employer.

Verify: Where 14 large Washington-based public companies list their headquarters Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K for 2025, cover page Starbucks Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2025, cover page Costco Wholesale Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026, cover page T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for 2025, cover page

6. Federal job records: more very large worksites, but fewer jobs at them in the latest year Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) size data: private worksites with 1,000 or more employees in the first quarter of each year, Washington and U.S., 2019-2026.

Washington had 117 such worksites in 2019, 119 in 2022, 137 in 2023, 153 in 2025 and 154 in 2026, a 32% rise. The U.S. count rose 7%, from 6,329 to 6,762. But jobs at Washington's sites fell 0.7%, from 514,829 in March 2025 to 511,149 in March 2026, while jobs at U.S. sites fell 0.2%.

Limit: These are worksites, not companies, and a company headquartered elsewhere can run one here. Washington's count stepped up in 2023, when its overall business counts show a recording change, so part of that step may be administrative; the count did not fall before or after it. 2026 figures are preliminary.

Verify: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Overview Private worksites with 1,000 or more workers, indexed to 2019 Change in very large worksites by period

Washington's 1,000-worker sites grew faster than the U.S.Private worksites with 1,000 or more employees, first quarter of each year, indexed so 2019 equals 100, Washington versus the United States, 2019-2026.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[90,140],"series":[{"name":"Washington","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"United States","color":"#b6542c"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":399.6,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"100"},{"series":1,"x":90,"y":399.6,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"100"},{"series":0,"x":209.43,"y":378.18,"xLabel":"2020","yLabel":"102.6"},{"series":1,"x":209.43,"y":392.18,"xLabel":"2020","yLabel":"100.9"},{"series":0,"x":328.86,"y":427.62,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"96.6"},{"series":1,"x":328.86,"y":421.02,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"97.4"},{"series":0,"x":448.29,"y":385.59,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"101.7"},{"series":1,"x":448.29,"y":379,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"102.5"},{"series":0,"x":567.71,"y":258.7,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"117.1"},{"series":1,"x":567.71,"y":356.75,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"105.2"},{"series":0,"x":687.14,"y":195.25,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"124.8"},{"series":1,"x":687.14,"y":350.98,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"105.9"},{"series":0,"x":806.57,"y":145.81,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"130.8"},{"series":1,"x":806.57,"y":335.33,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"107.8"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":139.22,"xLabel":"2026","yLabel":"131.6"},{"series":1,"x":926,"y":343.57,"xLabel":"2026","yLabel":"106.8"}]}Washington's 1,000-worker sites grew faster than the U.S.901001101201301402020202220242026Year (first quarter)WashingtonUnited StatesWashingtonUnited States2019 levelWashington count steps up as its business records changeFactHub · Worksites with 1,000+ workers (2019 = 100)
Washington's count of private worksites with 1,000 or more workers rose from 117 in 2019 to 154 in 2026, faster than the U.S. Part of the 2023 step may reflect a records change. View source chart
7. News reports: the moves that did happen were partial Read company statements and news reports on Washington companies that moved a headquarters or opened a major office elsewhere from 2023 to 2026.

Fisher Investments moved its headquarters to Texas in March 2023, right after the state Supreme Court upheld the capital gains tax, but kept its Camas offices open. Avalara now lists Durham, North Carolina, after a private-equity buyout. Payscale, remote since 2022, named Boston its headquarters. Starbucks plans a Nashville office with up to 2,000 jobs over several years, while Seattle stays its global headquarters. Columbia Bank is moving most executive roles to Arizona, citing taxes.

Limit: These are the cases we found reported, not a complete list. Companies' stated reasons are their own account; Fisher and Columbia tied their moves to Washington taxes, Payscale's followed remote work, and Avalara's followed a change of owner.

Verify: Fisher Investments moving headquarters to Texas from Washington state (March 27, 2023) Fisher Investments: Camas offices won't close over HQ shift to Texas (March 28, 2023) Durham now headquarters for billion-dollar company (June 24, 2024) Payscale moves headquarters from Seattle to Boston after years of remote work (December 8, 2025) TN: Starbucks Selects Nashville for Southeast Corporate Office, Creating 2,000 Jobs (April 22, 2026)

8. Layoff notices: big employers are cutting Washington jobs All 808 layoff and closure notices in the Employment Security Department's WARN database, June 2018 to November 2, 2026, summed by year and employer; farm and orchard employers flagged by name. Read the federal and state notice laws.

Notices covered 31,257 workers in 2025 and 28,731 in 2026 through November 2, the most since 2020's 46,824. Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks and Meta filed for about 13,900 since January 2025. A state law in effect since July 27, 2025, covers employers with 50 or more workers and counts layoffs statewide; the federal law covers employers with 100 or more. Farm and orchard notices went from none in the year before to 13,479 workers in the year after.

Limit: Notices are planned layoffs, not confirmed job losses, and the counts before and after July 2025 are not comparable. Farm employers are flagged by name, so some growers are counted as other employers.

Verify: Layoff notices by year received Largest non-farm filers, 2025 to November 2, 2026 Layoff notices in the year before and after Washington's notice law RCW 49.45.010, Definitions (mass layoffs and business closings) 29 U.S. Code § 2101, Definitions (federal WARN Act) Washington state expands federal WARN Act requirements and penalties (July 28, 2025)

Workers in Washington layoff notices, farms versus all other employersWorkers covered by layoff and closure notices filed with Washington's Employment Security Department, by year received, 2019 to November 2, 2026, split into farms and orchards and all other employers.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[0,50000],"series":[{"name":"Farms and orchards","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"All other employers","color":"#b6542c"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":142.25,"y":461.29,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"2513"},{"series":1,"x":142.25,"y":399.18,"xLabel":"2019","yLabel":"7538"},{"series":0,"x":246.75,"y":482,"xLabel":"2020","yLabel":"0"},{"series":1,"x":246.75,"y":96.17,"xLabel":"2020","yLabel":"46,824"},{"series":0,"x":351.25,"y":481.01,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"120"},{"series":1,"x":351.25,"y":455.4,"xLabel":"2021","yLabel":"3108"},{"series":0,"x":455.75,"y":477.46,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"551"},{"series":1,"x":455.75,"y":435.11,"xLabel":"2022","yLabel":"5140"},{"series":0,"x":560.25,"y":480.92,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"131"},{"series":1,"x":560.25,"y":305.12,"xLabel":"2023","yLabel":"21,335"},{"series":0,"x":664.75,"y":479.16,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"345"},{"series":1,"x":664.75,"y":381.51,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"11,850"},{"series":0,"x":769.25,"y":374.15,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"13,089"},{"series":1,"x":769.25,"y":224.44,"xLabel":"2025","yLabel":"18,168"},{"series":0,"x":873.75,"y":392.83,"xLabel":"2026 (to Nov. 2)","yLabel":"10,821"},{"series":1,"x":873.75,"y":245.26,"xLabel":"2026 (to Nov. 2)","yLabel":"17,910"}]}Workers in Washington layoff notices, farms versus all other employers010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00020192020202120222023202420252026 (to Nov. 2)Year notice receivedFarms and orchardsAll other employersState notice law takes effect July 27, 2025FactHub · Workers in notices
Workers in layoff notices reached their highest since 2020 in 2025 and 2026. Farm notices appear only after Washington's wider notice law took effect in July 2025. View source chart

Common questions 8

“Are big employers leaving Washington?”

Short answer: No, but they're cutting jobs

All 14 big Washington-based companies we checked still list headquarters here, and the state has more 1,000-worker sites than in 2019: 154, up from 117. But Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks and Meta filed layoff notices for about 13,900 Washington workers since January 2025, and jobs at those big sites fell 0.7% in the latest year.

See the evidence: Federal job records: more very large worksites, but fewer jobs at them in the latest year

“Are businesses fleeing Washington?”

Short answer: No, but fewer are starting

The moves we found were few and partial, such as Fisher Investments' headquarters going to Texas. Washington's closing rate is only slightly above the national rate. The bigger gap is in new businesses: Washington's filings to start likely employers fell from 89% of the U.S. rate per person before 2020 to 77% since.

See the evidence: New business filings: Washington fell further behind the U.S.

“Are more Washington businesses closing than opening?”

Short answer: Lately, slightly

In the four quarters to mid-2025, federal records count 25,331 Washington business closings and 23,210 openings, while U.S. openings still beat closings. Before the pandemic, Washington's openings beat its closings. The state's closing counts jump in some quarters, likely from record cleanups, so the size of the recent gap is uncertain.

See the evidence: Business openings and closings: fewer openings than the U.S.

“Have Washington's taxes gone up?”

Short answer: Yes

The 2025 Legislature raised more tax dollars than any single session in state history, about $3.6 billion in its first two years, even after inflation. The payroll tax for paid family leave rises from 0.4% of wages in 2019 to 1.2% in 2027. Washington fell from 33rd to 45th on the Tax Foundation's state tax index from 2020 to 2026.

See the evidence: Rankings: Washington fell on tax and cost measures

Deeper analysis: No Washington session raised more tax dollars than 2025's. — No Washington session raised more tax dollars than 2025's, about $3.6 billion in its first two years, even after inflation.

Deeper analysis: Washington's paid leave tax triples to 1.2%, and still falls short — Washington's paid leave payroll tax triples from 0.4% of wages in 2019 to 1.2% in 2027.

“Are big employers moving Washington jobs to other states?”

Short answer: In a few cases

Starbucks is building a Nashville office with up to 2,000 jobs over several years, and Columbia Bank is moving most executive roles to Arizona, citing taxes. Reports we could check don't say how many of the Starbucks jobs come from Washington. The Amazon and Microsoft cuts also hit other states, so they look like company-wide cuts rather than jobs moved out of Washington.

See the evidence: News reports: the moves that did happen were partial

“Washington's layoff notices in 2025 and 2026 are the highest since 2020.”

Short answer: Yes, but the rules changed

Notices covered 31,257 workers in 2025, the most since 2020, but a July 2025 state law made more layoffs reportable. It covers employers with 50 or more workers, not 100, and counts layoffs statewide. Farm and orchard notices, near zero before, covered 13,479 workers in its first year. Other employers' notices still rose, from 11,627 to 20,877 workers.

See the evidence: Layoff notices: big employers are cutting Washington jobs

“Are taxes behind the moves that did happen?”

Short answer: In some cases

Fisher Investments moved days after the state Supreme Court upheld the capital gains tax, and Columbia Bank cited about $8 million a year in new state taxes. Payscale's change followed years of remote work, and Avalara's followed a private-equity buyout. Starbucks has not tied its Nashville office to taxes in reports we read.

See the evidence: News reports: the moves that did happen were partial

Deeper analysis: Columbia Bank is moving its top executives to Arizona over Washington taxes. — Columbia Bank is moving its CEO and most executive roles to Arizona, citing about $8 million a year in new Washington taxes.

“Aren't Washington's private jobs falling?”

Short answer: Roughly flat

State estimates show private employers added about 8,900 jobs from September 2025 to September 2026, about 0.3%. Federal records show a 0.2% dip from March 2025 to March 2026. A companion FactHub check covers job growth in detail.

See the evidence: New business filings: Washington fell further behind the U.S.

Related claim: Washington jobs stalled in 2026 as prices outran incomes — Washington jobs are essentially unchanged from 2025, and Seattle-area prices rose faster than income per person in 2026.

Conclusion

Washington's business climate has slipped on most measures we checked, though the decline is gradual rather than a collapse.

Washington starts fewer businesses than it used to, compared with the rest of the country. Filings to start businesses likely to hire were 89% of the U.S. rate per person in 2015-2019 and 77% in 2020-2025. The state's job-growth lead is gone: private jobs grew 14.4% in the five years before 2020, against 9.0% nationally, but 4.5% since February 2020, against 4.9%. Washington's count of business locations slipped 0.5% in the year to early 2026, while the U.S. count grew 3.6%. Published rankings point the same way. Washington fell from 33rd to 45th on the Tax Foundation's state tax index from 2020 to 2026, and from 32nd to 47th on CNBC's cost-of-doing-business ranking from 2019 to 2026.

Big employers are cutting jobs here. Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks and Meta filed layoff notices covering about 13,900 Washington workers since January 2025, and jobs at the state's largest worksites fell 0.7% in the latest year. But they are not leaving. All 14 large Washington-based public companies we checked keep headquarters here, and the state has more 1,000-worker sites than in 2019.

The claim falls short of True for three reasons. Jobs are flat, not falling, and the latest state estimates show a small gain. The problem is fewer businesses starting, not a wave of closings: Washington's closing rate is only slightly above the national rate, and its closing counts include spikes that look like record cleanups. And CNBC still ranks Washington 11th overall among the states.

Confidence is moderate. The direction is consistent across federal records and rankings, but the latest year of data is preliminary, and rankings are judgments that change their methods. Washington's new tax on income over $1 million starts in 2028, so its effects are not in these numbers.

How we checked
  1. Defined "getting worse" as Washington doing worse than before 2020, compared with the U.S., on measures of starting, growing and keeping businesses.
  2. Pulled Census Business Formation Statistics through FRED and population estimates, and compared filings per 1,000 residents in 2015-2019 and 2020-2025.
  3. Pulled Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics openings and closings, and Current Employment Statistics private jobs, for Washington and the U.S., and compared set periods.
  4. Recorded Washington's ranks from the Tax Foundation's 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index, using that edition's ranks for every year, and from CNBC's Top States for Business for 2019 and 2026.
  5. Read the SEC business address and latest annual report for 14 large Washington-based public companies, and the cover pages of four of those reports.
  6. Downloaded Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW size data for private worksites with 1,000 or more employees, first quarter 2019-2026, and QCEW private establishment and employment series.
  7. Copied all 808 notices from the Employment Security Department WARN database, checked the first 15 rows against the live table, and summed workers by year and employer. Read the federal WARN Act and Washington's 2025 notice law, and compared the 12 months before and after the state law.
  8. Read reports on each company move we found.
  9. Recorded limits: spikes in Washington's closing counts, a recording break in its business counts, the 2025 notice-law change, name-based farm flags, ranking methods, and preliminary 2026 data. Every table and calculation is in the linked dataset with the script that builds it.

Editorial note: Scope: whether Washington's business climate has gotten worse, judged by new business filings, business openings and closings, private job growth, business counts, published tax and business rankings, and big employers' headquarters, worksites, layoffs and moves. We rated a common, general form of the claim rather than any one person's words. The rankings are published judgments from a tax-policy think tank and a business news network, and we note their limits. Whether Washington's jobs are still growing is the subject of a companion FactHub check. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: None known.

Sources 28

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. FactHub record FactHub dataset: company headquarters. Where 14 large Washington-based public companies list their headquarters

    Saved analysis of SEC business addresses, checked November 3, 2026.

    • All 14 companies list a Washington business address with the SEC, including Microsoft (Redmond), Amazon and Starbucks (Seattle), Costco (Issaquah) and T-Mobile US (Bellevue).

  2. Party to the dispute Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC EDGAR). Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K for 2025, cover page

    Amazon's annual report filed February 6, 2026.

    Reliability: The company's own sworn filing with the SEC. Companies must report their principal executive office accurately.

    • Amazon's latest annual report lists its principal executive offices in Seattle.

      What the source says
      Seattle, Washington 98109-5210
      Cover page, address of principal executive offices
  3. Party to the dispute Starbucks Corporation (SEC EDGAR). Starbucks Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2025, cover page

    Starbucks' annual report filed November 14, 2025.

    Reliability: The company's own filing with the SEC.

    • Starbucks' latest annual report lists its principal executive offices in Seattle.

      What the source says
      2401 Utah Avenue South, Seattle, Washington 98134
      Cover page, address of principal executive offices
  4. Party to the dispute Costco Wholesale Corporation (SEC EDGAR). Costco Wholesale Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026, cover page

    Costco's annual report filed October 7, 2026.

    Reliability: The company's own filing with the SEC.

    • Costco's annual report filed in October 2026 lists its principal executive offices in Issaquah.

      What the source says
      999 Lake Drive, Issaquah, WA 98027
      Cover page, address of principal executive offices
  5. Party to the dispute T-Mobile US, Inc. (SEC EDGAR). T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for 2025, cover page

    T-Mobile US's annual report filed February 11, 2026.

    Reliability: The company's own filing with the SEC.

    • T-Mobile US's latest annual report lists its principal executive offices in Bellevue.

      What the source says
      12920 SE 38th Street
      Cover page, address of principal executive offices
  6. Government U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Overview

    How BLS builds its count of employers and jobs.

    Reliability: BLS's description of its own program, which compiles state unemployment-insurance records.

    • The QCEW covers more than 95% of U.S. jobs and is built from unemployment-insurance records, so it counts nearly every employer's worksites.

      What the source says
      covering more than 95 percent of U.S. jobs available at the county, state, and national levels by detailed industry
      Overview, first paragraph
  7. FactHub record FactHub dataset: very large worksites. Private worksites with 1,000 or more workers, indexed to 2019

    Saved analysis of QCEW first-quarter size data, Washington and U.S., 2019-2026.

    • Washington had 117 private worksites with 1,000 or more workers in early 2019 and 154 in early 2026, up 32%; the U.S. count rose 7%, from 6,329 to 6,762.

  8. FactHub record FactHub dataset: very large worksites by period. Change in very large worksites by period

    Saved analysis splitting the period around the 2023 step and showing jobs at these sites.

    • Qualifies: Washington's count rose 1.7% from 2019 to 2022 and 12.4% from 2023 to 2026, and went from 153 to 154 in the latest year. Jobs at these sites fell 0.7% from March 2025 to March 2026, against 0.2% at U.S. sites.

  9. News report InvestmentNews. Fisher Investments moving headquarters to Texas from Washington state (March 27, 2023)

    Trade news report of Fisher's headquarters move.

    Reliability: Financial-advice industry trade publication.

    • Qualifies: Fisher Investments moved its headquarters from Washington to Texas right after the state Supreme Court allowed the capital gains tax.

      What the source says
      Its decision follows a ruling Friday by the Washington State Supreme Court allowing the state to impose a capital gains tax.
      Opening paragraphs
  10. News report The Columbian. Fisher Investments: Camas offices won't close over HQ shift to Texas (March 28, 2023)

    Vancouver, Washington, newspaper report quoting Fisher on its Camas offices.

    Reliability: Local daily newspaper; the story is partly paywalled.

    • Fisher said its Camas office would stay open after the headquarters move.

      What the source says
      Our Camas, Wash., facility will remain open.
      Body · Naj Srinivas, Fisher Investments senior vice president of corporate communications
  11. News report Southern Business & Development. Durham now headquarters for billion-dollar company (June 24, 2024)

    Report that Avalara now lists Durham, North Carolina, as its headquarters.

    Reliability: Economic-development trade publication quoting the company.

    • Qualifies: Avalara, which previously listed Seattle, now calls Durham, North Carolina, its headquarters.

      What the source says
      Tax software company Avalara now calls Durham its headquarters
      Opening paragraph
  12. News report KIRO 7. Payscale moves headquarters from Seattle to Boston after years of remote work (December 8, 2025)

    Local news report on Payscale's headquarters change.

    Reliability: Seattle TV station news report.

    • Qualifies: Payscale gave up its Seattle office in 2022 for remote work before naming Boston its headquarters.

      What the source says
      Payscale abandoned its Seattle office, located in Pioneer Square, in 2022 in favor of remote work.
      Body

    • About 10% of Payscale's staff live in the Seattle area.

      What the source says
      approximately 10% of its staff live in the greater Seattle area
      Body
  13. News report Trade & Industry Development. TN: Starbucks Selects Nashville for Southeast Corporate Office, Creating 2,000 Jobs (April 22, 2026)

    Report of Starbucks' Nashville office announcement.

    Reliability: Economic-development trade publication reporting the Tennessee announcement.

    • Qualifies: Starbucks plans to employ up to 2,000 people in Nashville over several years.

      What the source says
      it will employ up to 2,000 people over the next several years
      Opening paragraph

    • The Nashville office works with Starbucks' global headquarters, which remains in Seattle.

      What the source says
      global headquarters in Seattle
      Opening paragraph
  14. FactHub record FactHub dataset: layoff notices by year. Layoff notices by year received

    Saved analysis of the ESD WARN database, 2019 to November 2, 2026.

    • Qualifies: Notices covered 31,257 workers in 2025 and 28,731 in 2026 through November 2, the most since 46,824 in 2020; farms and orchards were 13,089 and 10,821 of those.

  15. FactHub record FactHub dataset: largest filers. Largest non-farm filers, 2025 to November 2, 2026

    Saved analysis of workers by employer.

    • Qualifies: Since January 2025, notices cover 5,259 Amazon workers, 4,084 at Microsoft, 2,589 at Starbucks and 1,995 at Meta, about 13,900 in all.

  16. FactHub record FactHub dataset: notices around the state law. Layoff notices in the year before and after Washington's notice law

    Saved analysis comparing 12-month windows.

    • Qualifies: In the year before July 27, 2025, notices covered 11,627 workers and no farms; in the year after, 34,356 workers, including 13,479 at farms and 20,877 at other employers.

  17. Government Washington State Legislature. RCW 49.45.010, Definitions (mass layoffs and business closings)

    Definitions in Washington's 2025 layoff-notice law.

    Reliability: Official statute text from the Code Reviser.

    • Qualifies: Washington's law covers employers with 50 or more employees in the state and layoffs of 50 or more in any 30 days, without a single-site test.

      What the source says
      means a person who employs 50 or more employees in this state, excluding part-time employees
      Subsection (8), "Employer"
  18. Academic Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School. 29 U.S. Code § 2101, Definitions (federal WARN Act)

    The federal WARN Act's definitions of employer and mass layoff.

    Reliability: Cornell's copy of the U.S. Code text.

    • Qualifies: The federal law covers employers with 100 or more employees and counts layoffs at a single site.

      What the source says
      100 or more employees, excluding part-time employees
      Subsection (a)(1)(A)
  19. Government Washington Employment Security Department. Washington state expands federal WARN Act requirements and penalties (July 28, 2025)

    ESD's announcement of the state notice law.

    Reliability: The agency that administers the law and keeps the notice database.

    • Qualifies: Washington's own notice law took effect July 27, 2025.

      What the source says
      As of July 27, 2025, the state expanded on the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act.
      Opening paragraph
  20. FactHub record FactHub dataset: business filings per person. New business filings per 1,000 residents, Washington and U.S.

    Saved analysis of Census Business Formation Statistics, 2015-2025.

    • Qualifies: Washington's rate of filings to start likely employers was below the U.S. rate every year from 2015 to 2025, and 81% of it in 2025 (4.05 versus 5.00 per 1,000 residents).

  21. FactHub record FactHub dataset: business filings in 2026. New business filings, January-September 2026 versus 2025

    Saved analysis of Census Business Formation Statistics.

    • Washington's filings to start likely employers rose 4.9% in January-September 2026, from 25,076 to 26,315; the U.S. rose 4.7%.

  22. FactHub record FactHub dataset: business counts and private jobs. Change in private business counts and private jobs

    Saved analysis of QCEW establishment and job counts.

    • Qualifies: Washington's private business count rose 5.8% from 2023 to 2025 (U.S. 2.1%), fell 4.6% from 2019 to 2025 across a recording break (U.S. +18.9%), and slipped 0.5% in the year to early 2026 (U.S. +3.6%). Private jobs fell 0.2% from March 2025 to March 2026.

  23. FactHub record FactHub dataset: September 2026 private jobs. Private-sector job change, September 2025 to September 2026

    Saved analysis of the ESD September 2026 workbook.

    • ESD estimates show about 8,900 more private jobs in September 2026 than a year earlier, about 0.3%.

  24. FactHub record FactHub dataset: business filings before and since 2020. New business filings per person before and since 2020

    Saved analysis of Census Business Formation Statistics, 2015-2025.

    • Washington's rate of filings to start likely employers was 89% of the U.S. rate in 2015-2019 (3.44 versus 3.88 per 1,000 residents) and 77% in 2020-2025 (3.97 versus 5.13).

  25. FactHub record FactHub dataset: private job growth by period. Private job growth, Washington and U.S., by period

    Saved analysis of BLS Current Employment Statistics, December 2014 to September 2026.

    • Washington private jobs grew 14.4% from December 2014 to December 2019, against 9.0% for the U.S., and 4.5% from February 2020 to September 2026, against 4.9%.

  26. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington's tax and business rankings. Change in Washington's tax and business rankings

    Saved analysis of Tax Foundation (2026 edition) and CNBC ranks.

    • Washington fell from 33rd to 45th on the Tax Foundation's tax index (2020 to 2026), and on CNBC's ranking from 5th to 11th overall and from 32nd to 47th on cost of doing business (2019 to 2026).

  27. FactHub record FactHub dataset: business openings and closings. Business openings and closings by period

    Saved analysis of BLS Business Employment Dynamics, 2014 to mid-2025.

    • Qualifies: In the four quarters to mid-2025, Washington had 25,331 business closings and 23,210 openings, a closing rate of 3.33% a quarter against 3.22% for the U.S.; before the pandemic, Washington's openings beat its closings.

  28. FactHub record FactHub dataset: business opening rate compared with the U.S.. Washington's business opening rate compared with the U.S.

    Saved analysis of BLS Business Employment Dynamics openings, 2014 to early 2026.

    • Washington's business opening rate was 91% of the U.S. rate in 2014-2019, excluding 2018, and 88% from the second quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2026.

  29. FactHub dataset Washington's business climate, big employers and business counts, 2014-2026

    Tables: company-hq, company-moves, large-worksites, establishments-jobs, warn-notices, warn-by-year, business-formation, esd-sept-2026, openings-closings, private-jobs-ces, climate-rankings

    All tables

  30. FactHub chart wa-large-worksites-vs-us
  31. FactHub chart wa-layoff-notices-by-year

Update history 3 changes, last

  1. First version.
  2. Rated the claim on both readings of "losing": leaving the state and shrinking here. Changed the rating from False to Mixed, led with job cuts at big employers, and added a question on jobs moving to other states.
  3. Rated a broader claim, that Washington's business climate is getting worse, rather than whether big employers are leaving, and rated it Mostly true. Added business openings and closings, job growth by period, and tax and business rankings from dataset version 2. Removed the attributed quotes; whether big employers are leaving is now a common question. Trimmed common questions now covered by the new ones.

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{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"ClaimReview","url":"https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-big-employers-not-leaving/4","datePublished":"2026-11-03","dateModified":"2026-11-03","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"FactHub","url":"https://facthub.org/"},"claimReviewed":"Washington\u0027s business climate is getting worse.","reviewRating":{"@type":"Rating","alternateName":"Mostly true"},"image":"https://facthub.org/node-assets-v2/article/wa-big-employers-not-leaving/4/bellevue-aerial/social-1200x630.jpg"}

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