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The short version
Claim we investigated
Washington's job growth has stalled in 2026, and prices are rising faster than incomes.
True. Washington jobs are essentially unchanged from 2025, and Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% while income per person rose 3.2%. On the state's job count, January to September averaged 0.05% below 2025; the federal count shows 0.24% growth. State forecasters expect 0.1% for 2026. Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% in a year; income per person rose 3.2%.
Quote or cite this fact-check
FactHub rates the claim “Washington's job growth has stalled in 2026, and prices are rising faster than incomes” True (high confidence): Washington jobs are essentially unchanged from 2025, and Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% while income per person rose 3.2%. Reviewed November 3, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-jobs-stalled-2026/1
Key points
What the evidence establishes
- Established. On the state's job count, January to September 2026 averaged about 1,900 fewer jobs (0.05%) than the same months of 2025.
- Established. Washington had just 2,600 more jobs in September 2026 than in September 2024, essentially no growth in two years.
- Established. State forecasters cut their 2026 job growth forecast to 0.1% on November 2, 2026.
- Established. Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% in the year to August; Washington income per person rose 3.2% in the year to mid-2026.
- Context. We counted jobs as state forecasters do. On the federal count as published, 2026 jobs are up 0.24%, about the same as the U.S.
- Not shown. The data don't show why growth stalled. September's 15,400-job drop was mostly government jobs and may be revised.
Meanwhile, back in reality: [...] Negative job growth YTD. [...] Just 0.1% employment growth forecast for 2026. [...] Inflation outpacing income growth. His own economists delivered the bad news YESTERDAY.
Context: Couture was replying to a post by Gov. Bob Ferguson saying WalletHub had ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the number 1 economic environment. His post opened by saying the governor was taking a victory lap over a WalletHub ranking and ended with 'You can't create jobs with a press release, Governor.' The [...] marks chart emoji used as bullets, omitted here. 'Yesterday' refers to the forecast council's November 2, 2026 economic review.
Source: Rep. Travis Couture, post on X, November 3, 2026 · View in the dataset
The evidence
The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.
| Method | Institution / country | Year(s) | What it shows | Key limitation | Primary links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Security Department seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll series, benchmarked quarterly to unemployment-insurance wage records; January-September averages and point-to-point changes computed by FactHub. | Washington Employment Security Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States | 2024, 2025, 2026 | The January-September 2026 average was 3,634,100 jobs, against 3,636,000 for the same months of 2025: about 1,900 fewer, or 0.05%. Jobs rose 15,600 (0.4%) from December 2025 to September 2026. Over two years, September 2024 to September 2026, the gain was 2,600 jobs (0.07%). The state's labor economist describes 2025 and 2026 as brief ups and downs. | The decline is far smaller than the survey's normal month-to-month noise. October 2025 is missing because of the federal funding lapse, and all 2026 values are preliminary. | FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure Washington Employment Security Department |
| Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics for Washington and the U.S., seasonally adjusted, as published November 3, 2026. | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics United States | 2020, 2025, 2026 | On the federal count, Washington's January-September 2026 average was 0.24% above 2025, close to the U.S. at 0.22%. Over the longer run Washington trails: since February 2020 the state count is up 3.6% and the federal count 4.0%, against 4.4% for the U.S. | The federal state estimates for 2025-2026 have not yet been checked against tax records; that happens in early 2027 and usually moves them toward the state count. | FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure |
| The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council's preliminary November 2026 economic forecast, presented November 2, 2026, with a FactHub arithmetic check. | Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council United States | 2026 | The council's staff forecast 0.1% employment growth in 2026, down from 0.2% in September. One of their slides is titled: WA employment growth has stalled in 2026. A simple check agrees. If jobs stay at the September level through December, the 2026 average is 0.07% above 2025. | This is a preliminary forecast; the council adopts the final November forecast later in the month. Couture is a council member and moved to adopt the September forecast. | Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council FactHub dataset: 2026 growth if jobs stay at the September level Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council |
| Employment Security Department one-month change by industry, seasonally adjusted, and the forecast council's review of the same month. | Washington Employment Security Department, Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council United States | 2026 | Government lost 10,400 of the 15,400 jobs, including 8,800 in state government, mostly education. Private employers lost 5,000. The forecast council, using its own seasonal adjustment, put the drop at 9,800 and expects the state education loss to be revised. Year over year, Washington still had 9,200 more jobs in September 2026. | Before seasonal adjustment, government jobs rose 8,900 in September, short of the usual 19,300 rise at the start of the school year; the adjusted loss reflects that gap and may shrink with revision. | Washington Employment Security Department Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council FactHub dataset: where September's job loss came from |
| Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly state personal income (total and per person) compared with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Seattle-area consumer price index, year over year, plus the state's 2026 forecast for both. | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council United States | 2025, 2026 | Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% from August 2025 to August 2026. Washington personal income rose 3.8% from mid-2025 to mid-2026, and income per person 3.2%. The state forecasts 3.9% income growth for 2026 against 4.4% Seattle inflation. | Personal income includes benefits and investment income, not just pay, and the price index covers only the Seattle metro area. Against the national price index (3.4%), total income kept up but income per person did not. | FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council |
| WalletHub's published rankings and methodology for its 2026 Best States for Jobs (October 28, 2026) and Best State Economies (June 1, 2026) studies. | WalletHub United States | 2026 | WalletHub ranks Washington 6th for jobs overall, but 35th on job market and 1st on economic environment. The economic environment score is 40 of 100 points, and state income-tax burdens make up 15 of those. In June, WalletHub ranked Washington's economy 2nd, with economic health 18th. | WalletHub is a private company that blends dozens of metrics with weights it chooses; its job-growth metric compares 2025 with 2024, not 2026. | WalletHub WalletHub |
| The two posts on X, read directly. | X (posts by Rep. Travis Couture and Gov. Bob Ferguson) United States | 2026 | Ferguson posted that WalletHub ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the number 1 economic environment. Couture replied with three points: negative job growth year to date, a 0.1% forecast for 2026, and inflation outpacing income growth. | Social media posts are short and give no sources; we checked each point against the official data. | Rep. Travis Couture on X |
1. State job count: 2026 so far is slightly below 2025 Employment Security Department seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll series, benchmarked quarterly to unemployment-insurance wage records; January-September averages and point-to-point changes computed by FactHub.
The January-September 2026 average was 3,634,100 jobs, against 3,636,000 for the same months of 2025: about 1,900 fewer, or 0.05%. Jobs rose 15,600 (0.4%) from December 2025 to September 2026. Over two years, September 2024 to September 2026, the gain was 2,600 jobs (0.07%). The state's labor economist describes 2025 and 2026 as brief ups and downs.
Limit: The decline is far smaller than the survey's normal month-to-month noise. October 2025 is missing because of the federal funding lapse, and all 2026 values are preliminary.
Verify: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure Monthly Employment Report, September 2026
- On the state count, January-September 2026 averaged 1,856 fewer jobs than January-September 2025 (-0.05%). FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
- Both counts show Washington jobs up 0.43% from December 2025 to September 2026. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure · Qualifies
- On the state count, jobs rose 0.07% (2,600) from September 2024 to September 2026. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
- The state's labor economist describes 2025 and 2026 as short swings up and down, not steady growth. Washington Employment Security Department
2. Federal count as published: a small gain, about the same as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics for Washington and the U.S., seasonally adjusted, as published November 3, 2026.
On the federal count, Washington's January-September 2026 average was 0.24% above 2025, close to the U.S. at 0.22%. Over the longer run Washington trails: since February 2020 the state count is up 3.6% and the federal count 4.0%, against 4.4% for the U.S.
Limit: The federal state estimates for 2025-2026 have not yet been checked against tax records; that happens in early 2027 and usually moves them toward the state count.
Verify: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
- On the federal count as published, Washington's January-September average rose 0.24%; the U.S. rose 0.22%. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure · Qualifies
- Since February 2020, Washington jobs rose 3.59% on the state count and 4.04% on the federal count, against 4.43% for the U.S. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
3. State forecast: 0.1% job growth for 2026 The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council's preliminary November 2026 economic forecast, presented November 2, 2026, with a FactHub arithmetic check.
The council's staff forecast 0.1% employment growth in 2026, down from 0.2% in September. One of their slides is titled: WA employment growth has stalled in 2026. A simple check agrees. If jobs stay at the September level through December, the 2026 average is 0.07% above 2025.
Limit: This is a preliminary forecast; the council adopts the final November forecast later in the month. Couture is a council member and moved to adopt the September forecast.
Verify: Economic Review, November 2, 2026 What 2026 growth would be if jobs stay at the September level Meeting minutes, September 25, 2026 (in the November 2, 2026 packet)
- The council's staff forecast 0.1% Washington job growth in 2026, down from 0.2% in the September forecast. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
- The staff's own slide says Washington job growth has stalled in 2026. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
- If jobs stay at the September level through December, the 2026 average is 0.07% above 2025, which rounds to 0.1%. FactHub dataset: 2026 growth if jobs stay at the September level
- Rep. Travis Couture is a member of the forecast council. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
- Couture moved to adopt the council's September forecast. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
Source: Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Economic Review, November 2, 2026 · View in the dataset
4. September's 15,400 lost jobs were mostly government Employment Security Department one-month change by industry, seasonally adjusted, and the forecast council's review of the same month.
Government lost 10,400 of the 15,400 jobs, including 8,800 in state government, mostly education. Private employers lost 5,000. The forecast council, using its own seasonal adjustment, put the drop at 9,800 and expects the state education loss to be revised. Year over year, Washington still had 9,200 more jobs in September 2026.
Limit: Before seasonal adjustment, government jobs rose 8,900 in September, short of the usual 19,300 rise at the start of the school year; the adjusted loss reflects that gap and may shrink with revision.
Verify: Monthly Employment Report, September 2026 Economic Review, November 2, 2026 Where Washington's September 2026 job loss came from
- Washington lost 15,400 jobs from August to September 2026, seasonally adjusted. Washington Employment Security Department
- Government lost 10,400 jobs in September and private employers 5,000. Washington Employment Security Department · Qualifies
- State government lost 8,800 jobs, mostly in education. Washington Employment Security Department · Qualifies
- The council counted a 9,800-job September drop, mostly a 7,800 cut in state education jobs that it expects to be revised. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
- Government lost 10,400 jobs in September; the largest gains were in professional and business services, construction and information. FactHub dataset: where September's job loss came from · Qualifies
- Before seasonal adjustment, Washington had 9,200 more jobs in September 2026 than a year earlier. Washington Employment Security Department · Qualifies
5. Prices rose faster than income Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly state personal income (total and per person) compared with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Seattle-area consumer price index, year over year, plus the state's 2026 forecast for both.
Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% from August 2025 to August 2026. Washington personal income rose 3.8% from mid-2025 to mid-2026, and income per person 3.2%. The state forecasts 3.9% income growth for 2026 against 4.4% Seattle inflation.
Limit: Personal income includes benefits and investment income, not just pay, and the price index covers only the Seattle metro area. Against the national price index (3.4%), total income kept up but income per person did not.
Verify: Washington income growth against Seattle-area price growth Economic Review, November 2, 2026
- Washington personal income rose 3.8% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices
- Washington personal income per person rose 3.2% over the same period. FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices
- The Seattle-area consumer price index rose 4.4% from August 2025 to August 2026 and 4.5% from June to June. FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices
- The council forecasts 3.9% growth in Washington personal income in 2026, before inflation. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
- Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% in the year to August 2026; the national index rose 3.4%. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
6. What the WalletHub rankings measure WalletHub's published rankings and methodology for its 2026 Best States for Jobs (October 28, 2026) and Best State Economies (June 1, 2026) studies.
WalletHub ranks Washington 6th for jobs overall, but 35th on job market and 1st on economic environment. The economic environment score is 40 of 100 points, and state income-tax burdens make up 15 of those. In June, WalletHub ranked Washington's economy 2nd, with economic health 18th.
Limit: WalletHub is a private company that blends dozens of metrics with weights it chooses; its job-growth metric compares 2025 with 2024, not 2026.
Verify: Best & Worst States for Jobs (2026) Best & Worst State Economies (2026)
- WalletHub ranks Washington 6th overall for jobs, 35th on job market and 1st on economic environment. WalletHub · Qualifies
- Economic environment is 40 of 100 points, and state income-tax burdens for low, middle and high earners count 5 points each within it. WalletHub · Qualifies
- WalletHub ranks Washington's economy 2nd, with economic activity 8th, economic health 18th and innovation potential 2nd. WalletHub · Qualifies
7. What Couture and Ferguson said The two posts on X, read directly.
Ferguson posted that WalletHub ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the number 1 economic environment. Couture replied with three points: negative job growth year to date, a 0.1% forecast for 2026, and inflation outpacing income growth.
Limit: Social media posts are short and give no sources; we checked each point against the official data.
Verify: Post replying to Gov. Bob Ferguson, November 3, 2026
- Couture said job growth was negative year to date, the 2026 forecast was 0.1%, and inflation was outpacing income growth. Rep. Travis Couture on X
- Ferguson said WalletHub ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the top economic environment. Rep. Travis Couture on X · Qualifies
Common questions 10
“How many jobs has Washington added in the past two years?”
Short answer: About 2,600, or 0.07%
Washington had 2,600 more payroll jobs in September 2026 than in September 2024, on the state's count, essentially no growth. Since early 2020, the state's jobs grew 3.6%, behind the U.S. at 4.4%.
- On the state count, jobs rose 0.07% (2,600) from September 2024 to September 2026. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
- Since February 2020, Washington jobs rose 3.59% on the state count and 4.04% on the federal count, against 4.43% for the U.S. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
See the evidence: State job count: 2026 so far is slightly below 2025
“Were September's 15,400 lost jobs mostly at private businesses?”
Short answer: No, mostly government
Government accounted for 10,400 of Washington's 15,400 lost jobs in September 2026, most of them state education jobs; private employers lost 5,000. State forecasters expect the education loss to be revised.
- Government lost 10,400 jobs in September and private employers 5,000. Washington Employment Security Department · Qualifies
- State government lost 8,800 jobs, mostly in education. Washington Employment Security Department · Qualifies
- The council counted a 9,800-job September drop, mostly a 7,800 cut in state education jobs that it expects to be revised. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
See the evidence: September's 15,400 lost jobs were mostly government
“Does WalletHub rank Washington's job market among the best?”
Short answer: No, 35th of 50
WalletHub ranks Washington's job market 35th of 50 states, even though it puts the state 6th overall for job seekers. The overall rank comes from first place on economic environment, which counts income levels and state income-tax burdens heavily.
“Negative job growth YTD.”
On the state's count, January to September 2026 averaged 0.05% below 2025. But the federal count as published shows 0.24% growth, and jobs are up 0.4% since December.
- On the state count, January-September 2026 averaged 1,856 fewer jobs than January-September 2025 (-0.05%). FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
- On the federal count as published, Washington's January-September average rose 0.24%; the U.S. rose 0.22%. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure · Qualifies
- Both counts show Washington jobs up 0.43% from December 2025 to September 2026. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure · Qualifies
See the evidence: State job count: 2026 so far is slightly below 2025
“Just 0.1% employment growth forecast for 2026.”
The state forecast council's November 2, 2026 review forecasts 0.1% job growth for 2026, down from 0.2% in September.
- The council's staff forecast 0.1% Washington job growth in 2026, down from 0.2% in the September forecast. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
- If jobs stay at the September level through December, the 2026 average is 0.07% above 2025, which rounds to 0.1%. FactHub dataset: 2026 growth if jobs stay at the September level
“Inflation outpacing income growth.”
Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% in the year to August 2026, while Washington income rose 3.8% in total and 3.2% per person. The state forecasts the same gap for all of 2026.
- The Seattle-area consumer price index rose 4.4% from August 2025 to August 2026 and 4.5% from June to June. FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices
- Washington personal income rose 3.8% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices
- Washington personal income per person rose 3.2% over the same period. FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices
- The council forecasts 3.9% growth in Washington personal income in 2026, before inflation. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
“Are the forecasters the governor's own economists?”
Short answer: No, a joint council's staff
The forecast staff serve the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, which includes legislators from both parties, the state treasurer and the governor's budget office. Couture is a member himself and moved to adopt the council's September forecast.
- Rep. Travis Couture is a member of the forecast council. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
- Couture moved to adopt the council's September forecast. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
“Is Gov. Ferguson's WalletHub ranking wrong?”
Short answer: No, it's accurate
WalletHub's October 28, 2026 study does rank Washington 6th for job seekers and 1st for economic environment, as the governor said. In June it ranked the state's economy 2nd. Both rankings lean on income levels and 2025 data, not 2026 job growth.
- Ferguson said WalletHub ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the top economic environment. Rep. Travis Couture on X · Qualifies
- WalletHub ranks Washington 6th overall for jobs, 35th on job market and 1st on economic environment. WalletHub · Qualifies
- WalletHub ranks Washington's economy 2nd, with economic activity 8th, economic health 18th and innovation potential 2nd. WalletHub · Qualifies
“Will September's job drop be revised away?”
Short answer: Possibly, in part
State forecasters say the state education job loss is likely to be revised. Before seasonal adjustment, government jobs rose 8,900 in September, less than the usual 19,300, so a small change in that count moves the adjusted figure a lot.
- The council counted a 9,800-job September drop, mostly a 7,800 cut in state education jobs that it expects to be revised. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council · Qualifies
- Government lost 10,400 jobs in September; the largest gains were in professional and business services, construction and information. FactHub dataset: where September's job loss came from · Qualifies
See the evidence: September's 15,400 lost jobs were mostly government
“Did state taxes or policies cause the slowdown?”
Short answer: Not shown here
Job counts can't show why growth stalled. U.S. jobs also grew only about 0.2% over the same months, and this check doesn't test any Washington policy as a cause.
- On the federal count as published, Washington's January-September average rose 0.24%; the U.S. rose 0.22%. FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure · Qualifies
See the evidence: Federal count as published: a small gain, about the same as the U.S.
Conclusion
Washington's job market has gone nowhere for about two years. On the state's own count, the state had 3,638,500 payroll jobs in September 2026, only 2,600 more than in September 2024. The first nine months of 2026 averaged about 1,900 fewer jobs than the same months of 2025. That is a 0.05% dip, which the state forecast council rounds to -0.1%.
Couture's three points each match the official record. The forecast council, whose nonpartisan staff serve legislators of both parties and the governor's budget office, cut its 2026 job forecast to 0.1% on November 2. And over the past year, Seattle-area prices rose faster than Washington income, both in total and per person. The council's own full-year forecast has the same gap: income up 3.9%, Seattle prices up 4.4%.
Two caveats keep this from being a story of collapse. First, "negative" depends on the count. The federal estimate as published shows Washington up 0.24% so far in 2026, about the same as the nation. Both counts show jobs up 0.4% since December. Second, September's 15,400-job drop was mostly government, chiefly state education jobs, which forecasters expect to be revised.
The governor's ranking is also accurate. WalletHub does rank Washington 6th for job seekers, but it ranks the state's job market 35th. The high overall rank comes from incomes and the lack of a state income tax, which are levels, not 2026 momentum. Both men can cite real numbers.
Confidence is high because the state count, the federal count, the state forecast and two federal income and price measures all point the same way. What these data can't show is why growth stalled. The U.S. slowed too, and nothing here tests any policy as the cause.
How we checked
- Defined the claims: Rep. Couture's three points as written (negative year-to-date job growth, a 0.1% forecast, inflation outpacing income growth), and a combined claim that job growth stalled in 2026 while prices rose faster than incomes.
- Measured year-to-date growth as the forecast council does: the January-September 2026 average against the January-September 2025 average. Also checked growth since December, over two years and since February 2020.
- Used the Employment Security Department's benchmarked series for 2026 figures because the state forecast council uses it, and repeated every calculation with the federal BLS count as published.
- Read the forecast council's November 2, 2026 Economic Review for the 2026 forecasts and checked the job forecast with simple arithmetic.
- Compared year-over-year growth in BEA state personal income, total and per person, with the BLS Seattle-area consumer price index, and with the national index as a cross-check.
- Read WalletHub's two 2026 state rankings and their methods to see what the governor's ranking measures.
- Recorded limits: preliminary and revised data, the missing October 2025 value, the metro-only price index, and that the data don't test causes.
Editorial note: Scope: Washington payroll jobs, personal income and Seattle-area prices from January 2024 to September 2026, plus the state's November 2, 2026 preliminary forecast. We checked the three factual points in Rep. Couture's post and the WalletHub ranking it answered; we did not test what caused the slowdown. All 2026 job figures are preliminary and will be revised, and the federal count will be benchmarked in early 2027. No external specialist review has been recorded.
Expert-review status
No external specialist review has been recorded.
Funding and conflicts
Funding: No external funding for this piece.
Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.
Conflicts: None known.
Sources 10
Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.
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Government
Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
Economic Review, November 2, 2026
The forecast council's meeting packet with its staff's preliminary November 2026 economic forecast and executive summary.
Reliability: Nonpartisan forecast staff serving a council of legislators from both parties, the state treasurer and the governor's budget office. Rep. Couture is a member.
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The council's staff forecast 0.1% Washington job growth in 2026, down from 0.2% in the September forecast.
What the source says
We expect a 0.1% increase in Washington employment this year, down from 0.2% growth in the previous forecast.
Executive Summary, p. 5 -
The staff's own slide says Washington job growth has stalled in 2026.
What the source says
WA employment growth has stalled in 2026
Slide 12, p. 13 -
Qualifies: The council counted a 9,800-job September drop, mostly a 7,800 cut in state education jobs that it expects to be revised.
What the source says
Total seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined 9,800 in September. The forecast expected a loss of 1,100 jobs over the month. The majority of the decline came from a 7,800 reduction in state government education employment which is likely to be revised with additional data.
Executive Summary, p. 4 -
The council forecasts 3.9% growth in Washington personal income in 2026, before inflation.
What the source says
Our forecast for nominal personal income growth this year is 3.9%, down from 4.1% growth in the September forecast.
Executive Summary, p. 5 -
Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% in the year to August 2026; the national index rose 3.4%.
What the source says
From August 2025 to August 2026, the Seattle CPI rose 4.4% after increasing 4.5% in June. The U.S. city average year over year increase in the CPI was 3.4%in August.
Executive Summary, p. 5
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Government
Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
Meeting minutes, September 25, 2026 (in the November 2, 2026 packet)
Minutes of the council's September 25, 2026 meeting, printed in the November 2 packet, listing members present and motions.
Reliability: Official minutes approved by the council at its November 2 meeting.
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Qualifies: Rep. Travis Couture is a member of the forecast council.
What the source says
Travis Couture, House of Representatives
Minutes, members present, p. 1 -
Qualifies: Couture moved to adopt the council's September forecast.
What the source says
Representative Couture moved, seconded by Representative Ormsby, to adopt the forecast as presented.
Minutes, Motion, p. 1
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Government
Washington Employment Security Department.
Monthly Employment Report, September 2026
The state labor department's monthly report on Washington jobs and unemployment, by its chief labor economist.
Reliability: Produced with BLS from the monthly employer survey; the state benchmarks it quarterly to unemployment-insurance wage records.
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Washington lost 15,400 jobs from August to September 2026, seasonally adjusted.
What the source says
preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show nonfarm employment in Washington decreased by 15,400 from August to September 2026.
p. 1 -
Qualifies: Government lost 10,400 jobs in September and private employers 5,000.
What the source says
Private sector employment decreased by 5,000 in September. Public sector employment decreased by 10,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Industry employment, one-month changes, p. 3 -
Qualifies: State government lost 8,800 jobs, mostly in education.
What the source says
Federal government employment was down 200, state government dropped by 8,800 and local government employment was down 1,400 in September. Within state and local government, the deepest one-month losses were observed in educational services.
Decreases compared to August 2026, p. 3 -
Qualifies: Before seasonal adjustment, Washington had 9,200 more jobs in September 2026 than a year earlier.
What the source says
estimates for September 2025 through September 2026 show an increase of 9,200 jobs statewide.
p. 1 -
The state's labor economist describes 2025 and 2026 as short swings up and down, not steady growth.
What the source says
2025 and 2026 have been characterized by a mix of brief periods of increasing employment and brief periods of decreasing employment.
Overview of seasonally adjusted changes, p. 3
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Industry
WalletHub.
Best & Worst States for Jobs (2026)
WalletHub's October 28, 2026 ranking of states for job seekers on 34 metrics.
Reliability: A private personal finance website that publishes state rankings using its own choice of metrics and weights. The governor cited this ranking.
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Qualifies: WalletHub ranks Washington 6th overall for jobs, 35th on job market and 1st on economic environment.
What the source says
Overall Rank State Total Score Job Market Rank Economic Environment Rank … 6 Washington 61.37 35 1
Main Findings table, row 6 -
Qualifies: Economic environment is 40 of 100 points, and state income-tax burdens for low, middle and high earners count 5 points each within it.
What the source says
Economic Environment – Total Points: 40 … State Income-Tax Burden for Low-Income Earners (as Share of Income): Double Weight (~5.00 Points)
Methodology
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Industry
WalletHub.
Best & Worst State Economies (2026)
WalletHub's June 1, 2026 ranking of state economies on economic activity, economic health and innovation potential.
Reliability: A private personal finance website that publishes state rankings using its own choice of metrics and weights.
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Qualifies: WalletHub ranks Washington's economy 2nd, with economic activity 8th, economic health 18th and innovation potential 2nd.
What the source says
Overall Rank State Total Score Economic Activity Rank Economic Health Rank Innovation Potential Rank … 2 Washington 67.34 8 18 2
Main Findings table, row 2
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Party to the dispute
Rep. Travis Couture on X.
Post replying to Gov. Bob Ferguson, November 3, 2026
Couture's post, which quotes Ferguson's post about the WalletHub ranking.
Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. A Republican state representative replying to the Democratic governor. The quoted post is the governor's own.
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Couture said job growth was negative year to date, the 2026 forecast was 0.1%, and inflation was outpacing income growth.
What the source says
Negative job growth YTD. … Just 0.1% employment growth forecast for 2026. … Inflation outpacing income growth.
Post text · Rep. Travis Couture (R), Washington House of Representatives -
Qualifies: Ferguson said WalletHub ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the top economic environment.
What the source says
Wallethub just ranked Washington state as the 6th best state to find a job — with the number 1 economic environment in the nation.
Quoted post · Gov. Bob Ferguson
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FactHub record
FactHub dataset: Washington job growth in 2026 by measure.
Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
Saved analysis of year-to-date and longer-run job growth on the state and federal counts, with the U.S. for comparison.
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On the state count, January-September 2026 averaged 1,856 fewer jobs than January-September 2025 (-0.05%).
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Qualifies: On the federal count as published, Washington's January-September average rose 0.24%; the U.S. rose 0.22%.
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Qualifies: Both counts show Washington jobs up 0.43% from December 2025 to September 2026.
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On the state count, jobs rose 0.07% (2,600) from September 2024 to September 2026.
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Since February 2020, Washington jobs rose 3.59% on the state count and 4.04% on the federal count, against 4.43% for the U.S.
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FactHub record
FactHub dataset: 2026 growth if jobs stay at the September level.
What 2026 growth would be if jobs stay at the September level
Saved analysis checking the 0.1% forecast with simple arithmetic.
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If jobs stay at the September level through December, the 2026 average is 0.07% above 2025, which rounds to 0.1%.
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FactHub record
FactHub dataset: Washington income growth against Seattle-area prices.
Washington income growth against Seattle-area price growth
Saved analysis of year-over-year changes in BEA personal income and the BLS Seattle-area price index.
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Washington personal income rose 3.8% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026.
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Washington personal income per person rose 3.2% over the same period.
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The Seattle-area consumer price index rose 4.4% from August 2025 to August 2026 and 4.5% from June to June.
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FactHub record
FactHub dataset: where September's job loss came from.
Where Washington's September 2026 job loss came from
Saved analysis of the September 2026 one-month job change by industry.
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Qualifies: Government lost 10,400 jobs in September; the largest gains were in professional and business services, construction and information.
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FactHub dataset
Washington jobs, income and prices in 2026
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Tables: esd-monthly, bls-ces
Analysis ytd-growth
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Tables: income-prices
Analysis income-vs-prices
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Tables: sector-change
Analysis sept-sector-change
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Meanwhile, back in reality: [...] Negative job growth YTD. [...] Just 0.1% employment growth forecast for 2026. [...] Inflation outpacing income growth. His own economists delivered the bad news YESTERDAY.
Travis Couture, Washington state representative (R), 35th District; member of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, · In the dataset -
Scope: Entire dataset release
Forecast erfc-2026-jobs
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- FactHub chart wa-payroll-jobs-2024-2026
- FactHub chart wa-income-vs-prices-2026
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{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"ClaimReview","url":"https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-jobs-stalled-2026/1","datePublished":"2026-11-03","dateModified":"2026-11-03","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"FactHub","url":"https://facthub.org/"},"claimReviewed":"Washington\u0027s job growth has stalled in 2026, and prices are rising faster than incomes.","reviewRating":{"@type":"Rating","alternateName":"True"},"image":"https://facthub.org/node-assets-v2/article/wa-jobs-stalled-2026/1/wa-capitol/social-1200x630.jpg"}This metadata helps machines discover the fact-check. It does not prove the conclusion or guarantee special treatment by a search engine.
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