Five-second answer

Claim we investigated

Washington's general-fund spending has outgrown population and inflation by about $17-21 billion a biennium since 2013-15, five to nine times what the millionaires tax would raise in 2027-29.

True. 2023-25 spending was $17-21 billion above a population-and-inflation path; the tax would raise $2.3-3.5 billion in 2027-29. The Legislature's own budget notes, federal population and price data, the tax's fiscal note and the state's revenue forecast all give the same order of magnitude: the excess growth is $16.9-21.2 billion a biennium on every population-and-price measure, against $2.3-3.5 billion of tax revenue in 2027-29.

Quote or cite this fact-check

FactHub rates the claim “Washington's general-fund spending has outgrown population and inflation by about $17-21 billion a biennium since 2013-15, five to nine times what the millionaires tax would raise in 2027-29” True (high confidence): 2023-25 spending was $17-21 billion above a population-and-inflation path; the tax would raise $2.3-3.5 billion in 2027-29. Reviewed October 21, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-spending-growth-vs-millionaires-tax/6

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. Had 2013-15 general-fund spending grown only with population and prices, 2023-25 spending would have been $51.5-55.9 billion; it was $72.7 billion, $16.9-21.2 billion above the path on all three price measures.
  • Established. The millionaires tax would raise $2.3 billion net (budget outlook) to $3.5 billion gross (September 2026 forecast) in 2027-29: about a ninth to a fifth of that excess.
  • Context. Its first full biennium, 2029-31, would raise about $9.4 billion, roughly half the excess, so the gap narrows once the tax is fully running.
  • Established. The state's adopted outlook already counts on the tax. Repeal with the relief kept turns a $0.65 billion 2027-29 balance into a $2.0-4.4 billion shortfall, which would take a 2.5-5.4% cut from projected 2027-29 spending, reserves or other revenue.
  • Context. Relative to the economy, spending is above its 2013-15 share of personal income but below its 2005-07 share (5.39% vs 5.95%).
  • Established. About half the growth above the benchmark traces to court orders (McCleary for K-12, partly Trueblood for behavioral health); about 45% is new or expanded programs and higher provider rates.
  • Not shown. That the tax is unnecessary, or that cutting waste would replace it, is not shown: audited general-fund waste runs in the tens of millions a year.
Important context: Initiative 645, on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would repeal ESSB 6346, the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million that takes effect in 2028, with first payments in April 2029; it would keep the sales-tax, business-tax and Working Families Tax Credit relief that came with the tax. The relief stays if voters repeal the tax through I-645, but the 2026 law voids it if a court strikes the tax down (Sec. 1202). Supporters argue the state has a spending problem, not a revenue problem; opponents say the budget already depends on the money. This check measures both: how far spending has grown beyond population and inflation, and what closing the 2027-29 budget without the tax would take. Whether the state should spend more or less is a value judgment this check does not settle.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 6 methods across 10 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
Final Near General Fund appropriations from the Legislative Budget Notes, compared with 2013-15 spending grown by OFM population times three price measures (U.S. CPI-U, Seattle CPI-U, and the BEA price index for state and local government purchases). Washington Legislature fiscal committees (LEAP), Washington Office of Financial Management, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis United States 2014, 2024 Final appropriations rose from $33.9 billion in 2013-15 to $72.7 billion in 2023-25. Grown only with population and U.S. consumer prices, 2013-15 spending would have reached $51.5 billion, so actual spending was $21.2 billion above that path; with the government price index the excess is $20.6 billion, and with Seattle prices $16.9 billion. Spending is above the population-and-price path from every base biennium back to 2005-07. Appropriations are authority to spend, and about 1% lapses each biennium. 2013-15 was a post-recession low, so a later base gives a smaller excess (about $6.3 billion from 2019-21) and the 2005-07 base gives $8.4-14.0 billion. The path is a benchmark, not a measure of need. FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5 FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5
Revenue estimates from the ESSB 6346 fiscal note, the April 2026 four-year budget outlook and the September 2026 revenue forecast (as summarized by the Washington Research Council for 2029-31). Washington Office of Financial Management, Washington Department of Revenue, Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Washington Research Council United States 2026 The fiscal note puts gross revenue at $2.698 billion in fiscal 2029, the only collection year in 2027-29, and the budget outlook counts it at $2.309 billion net of the relief that takes effect then. The September 2026 forecast raised the 2027-29 estimate to $3.503 billion and puts 2029-31 at about $9.4 billion. Set beside the excess growth, 2027-29 revenue is a ninth to a fifth of it, while 2029-31 revenue is about half. All are static estimates: the fiscal note assumes affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income, and the income base is volatile. 2027-29 includes only one year of collections (fiscal 2029). The 2029-31 figure comes from the Research Council's summary because the forecast's tables show it only within a broader line. FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5 Washington Office of Financial Management Washington Research Council
Our calculation from the April 2026 four-year outlook: its projected 2027-29 balance minus the tax's gross revenue, since I-645 keeps the tax relief; and the spending growth that would bring each balance back to zero. A second version starts from the Washington Research Council's adjusted October balance. Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Washington Legislature fiscal committees (LEAP), Washington Research Council, Washington Attorney General United States 2026 The adopted outlook projects a $0.65 billion balance at the end of 2027-29 on spending growth of only 2.95%. Removing the tax's gross revenue while keeping its relief gives about -$2.0 billion; with the September estimate, -$2.9 billion; from the Research Council's adjusted balance, about -$4.4 billion. Closing those gaps means 2027-29 spending growth of +0.4% to -2.6% over 2025-27, against an average of 15.6% a biennium since 2013-15. The outlook's 2027-29 spending is a maintenance-level projection (+2.95%), and agency requests would raise it. The September-forecast scenario holds other April revenue fixed. The Research Council's adjusted balance is an analyst estimate; its post implies but does not state that the balance includes the income tax. The scenarios assume repeal by I-645, which keeps the relief; if a court instead struck the tax down, Sec. 1202 of the 2026 law would void the relief too, and the gap would be the net revenue rather than the gross. FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5 Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Washington Attorney General Washington Research Council (Emily Makings)
The excess above the population-and-price path broken down by budget area and by reorganization-adjusted program group, using the Legislature's budget tables, with our classification of each group. Washington Legislature fiscal committees (LEAP), FactHub Research Team United States 2014, 2024 K-12 is $8.1 billion of the $21.2 billion excess (38%) and behavioral health $2.1 billion; the 2015 budget notes tie K-12 costs to the McCleary decision. The rest is mostly new or expanded programs (child care and early learning $3.2 billion, higher education $1.4 billion, Commerce grants $0.9 billion, the Working Families Tax Credit $0.5 billion) and long-term-care rates. Low-income health care and corrections grew more slowly than the benchmark, and spending outside K-12 grew faster than K-12 (122.5% vs 104.9%). The I-1351 class-size initiative added almost nothing: the 2015-17 budget counted its $2.0 billion cost and then saved $2.04 billion by modifying it. Which spending counts as court-ordered is a judgment: McCleary required ample school funding but the Legislature chose the salary levels and the levy swap, and the Trueblood share of behavioral health could not be separated. Part of the K-12 increase replaced local levy money. FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5 FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5 FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5 Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP
General-fund appropriations as a share of BEA state personal income by biennium. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington Legislature fiscal committees (LEAP) United States 2006, 2014, 2024 Spending was 5.95% of personal income in 2005-07, 4.78% in 2013-15 and 5.39% in 2023-25. Held at the 2013-15 share, 2023-25 spending would have been $64.5 billion, $8.2 billion below actual; held at the 2005-07 share, $80.3 billion, $7.6 billion above actual. On this one measure from a pre-recession base, there is no excess. Personal income is one measure of the economy's ability to pay; it is not a measure of what services cost. The choice of base year drives the result. FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5
State Auditor performance audits of the largest documented losses and of a general-fund program. Washington State Auditor's Office United States 2021, 2024 The State Auditor found at least $647 million paid to fraudsters in 2020 unemployment claims, money from the unemployment trust fund and federal programs rather than the general fund. A 2024 audit found Medicaid premiums of about $8.6 million a year paid for people also enrolled in other states. Findings like these are worth fixing, but they are tens of millions of general-fund dollars a year, far short of a $2-4 billion gap. These are examples, not a full inventory of waste; no audit measures waste across the whole budget. Single-audit questioned costs mean auditors could not confirm payments were allowable, not proven losses. Washington State Auditor's Office Washington State Auditor's Office
1. Spending is $16.9-21.2 billion a biennium above population-and-price paths Final Near General Fund appropriations from the Legislative Budget Notes, compared with 2013-15 spending grown by OFM population times three price measures (U.S. CPI-U, Seattle CPI-U, and the BEA price index for state and local government purchases).

Final appropriations rose from $33.9 billion in 2013-15 to $72.7 billion in 2023-25. Grown only with population and U.S. consumer prices, 2013-15 spending would have reached $51.5 billion, so actual spending was $21.2 billion above that path; with the government price index the excess is $20.6 billion, and with Seattle prices $16.9 billion. Spending is above the population-and-price path from every base biennium back to 2005-07.

Limit: Appropriations are authority to spend, and about 1% lapses each biennium. 2013-15 was a post-recession low, so a later base gives a smaller excess (about $6.3 billion from 2019-21) and the 2005-07 base gives $8.4-14.0 billion. The path is a benchmark, not a measure of need.

Verify: Spending above benchmark paths vs. millionaires-tax revenue Growth to 2023-25 from every base biennium

Deeper analysis: Washington's budget more than doubled in a decade, outpacing population and inflation — True: Washington's general-fund appropriations rose 114.6% from 2013-15 to 2023-25, far outpacing population and inflation.

2. The millionaires tax would raise $2.3-3.5 billion in 2027-29 and about $9.4 billion in 2029-31 Revenue estimates from the ESSB 6346 fiscal note, the April 2026 four-year budget outlook and the September 2026 revenue forecast (as summarized by the Washington Research Council for 2029-31).

The fiscal note puts gross revenue at $2.698 billion in fiscal 2029, the only collection year in 2027-29, and the budget outlook counts it at $2.309 billion net of the relief that takes effect then. The September 2026 forecast raised the 2027-29 estimate to $3.503 billion and puts 2029-31 at about $9.4 billion. Set beside the excess growth, 2027-29 revenue is a ninth to a fifth of it, while 2029-31 revenue is about half.

Limit: All are static estimates: the fiscal note assumes affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income, and the income base is volatile. 2027-29 includes only one year of collections (fiscal 2029). The 2029-31 figure comes from the Research Council's summary because the forecast's tables show it only within a broader line.

Verify: Spending above benchmark paths vs. millionaires-tax revenue Multiple agency fiscal note summary: ESSB 6346, tax on millionaires (2026) New brief: I-645, repealing the state individual income tax (Sept. 22, 2026)

Spending above inflation vs. the millionaires taxWashington's 2023-25 general-fund spending above paths grown from 2013-15 by population and prices (or personal income), beside what the millionaires tax would raise in 2027-29 and 2029-31, in billions of dollars per biennium.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[-10,30],"series":[{"name":"2023-25 spending above path","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"Millionaires tax revenue","color":"#b6542c"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":136.44,"y":160.43,"xLabel":"US CPI","yLabel":"$21"},{"series":0,"x":229.33,"y":166.51,"xLabel":"Govt prices","yLabel":"$21"},{"series":0,"x":322.22,"y":205.24,"xLabel":"Seattle CPI","yLabel":"$17"},{"series":0,"x":415.11,"y":294.23,"xLabel":"Income \u002713-15","yLabel":"$8"},{"series":0,"x":508,"y":457.07,"xLabel":"Income \u002705-07","yLabel":"-$8"},{"series":1,"x":600.89,"y":355.21,"xLabel":"Net 27-29","yLabel":"$2"},{"series":1,"x":693.78,"y":351.19,"xLabel":"Gross 27-29","yLabel":"$3"},{"series":1,"x":786.67,"y":342.95,"xLabel":"Sept 27-29","yLabel":"$4"},{"series":1,"x":879.56,"y":281.77,"xLabel":"Sept 29-31","yLabel":"$9"}]}Spending above inflation vs. the millionaires tax-$10$0$10$20$30US CPIGovt pricesSeattle CPIIncome '13-15Net 27-29Gross 27-29Sept 27-29Sept 29-31Spending above path (by price or income measure) and tax revenue (by estimate and biennium)2023-25 spending above pathMillionaires tax revenueNo excessFactHub · $ billions per biennium
2023-25 spending above 2013-15 paths grown by population and U.S. prices, government prices or Seattle prices, and above the 2013-15 and 2005-07 shares of personal income, beside the millionaires tax's revenue: net and gross for 2027-29, and the September 2026 forecast for 2027-29 and 2029-31. View source chart
3. Repeal would leave a $2.0-4.4 billion 2027-29 shortfall, a 2.5-5.4% cut Our calculation from the April 2026 four-year outlook: its projected 2027-29 balance minus the tax's gross revenue, since I-645 keeps the tax relief; and the spending growth that would bring each balance back to zero. A second version starts from the Washington Research Council's adjusted October balance.

The adopted outlook projects a $0.65 billion balance at the end of 2027-29 on spending growth of only 2.95%. Removing the tax's gross revenue while keeping its relief gives about -$2.0 billion; with the September estimate, -$2.9 billion; from the Research Council's adjusted balance, about -$4.4 billion. Closing those gaps means 2027-29 spending growth of +0.4% to -2.6% over 2025-27, against an average of 15.6% a biennium since 2013-15.

Limit: The outlook's 2027-29 spending is a maintenance-level projection (+2.95%), and agency requests would raise it. The September-forecast scenario holds other April revenue fixed. The Research Council's adjusted balance is an analyst estimate; its post implies but does not state that the balance includes the income tax. The scenarios assume repeal by I-645, which keeps the relief; if a court instead struck the tax down, Sec. 1202 of the 2026 law would void the relief too, and the gap would be the net revenue rather than the gross.

Verify: 2027-29 outlook balance without the millionaires tax 2026 Supplemental Legislative Budget Notes Explanatory statement, Initiative Measure No. 645 (July 23, 2026) The budget problem could be short-term, if the Legislature chooses (Oct. 2, 2026)

2027-29 budget balance with and without the taxProjected NGF-O ending balance at the end of 2027-29: the adopted April 2026 outlook with the tax, and with its revenue removed under four assumptions, in billions of dollars.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[-5,1],"series":[{"name":"Value","color":"#176b87"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":173.6,"y":93.83,"xLabel":"With tax","yLabel":"$0.7"},{"series":0,"x":340.8,"y":252.65,"xLabel":"Minus net","yLabel":"-$1.7"},{"series":0,"x":508,"y":278.75,"xLabel":"Minus gross","yLabel":"-$2.0"},{"series":0,"x":675.2,"y":334.37,"xLabel":"Sept gross","yLabel":"-$2.9"},{"series":0,"x":842.4,"y":442.86,"xLabel":"WRC adjusted","yLabel":"-$4.4"}]}2027-29 budget balance with and without the tax-$5.0-$4.0-$3.0-$2.0-$1.0$0.0$1.0With taxMinus netMinus grossSept grossWRC adjustedScenario (tax revenue removed, relief kept)BalancedFactHub · 2027-29 ending balance ($ billions)
Projected 2027-29 general-fund balance: the adopted outlook with the tax, then with the tax's net or gross revenue removed (relief kept), the September 2026 gross estimate removed, and the Washington Research Council's adjusted balance. Below zero, the 2027 Legislature would need cuts, reserves or other revenue. View source chart
4. About half the excess traces to court orders; Medicaid caseloads explain little The excess above the population-and-price path broken down by budget area and by reorganization-adjusted program group, using the Legislature's budget tables, with our classification of each group.

K-12 is $8.1 billion of the $21.2 billion excess (38%) and behavioral health $2.1 billion; the 2015 budget notes tie K-12 costs to the McCleary decision. The rest is mostly new or expanded programs (child care and early learning $3.2 billion, higher education $1.4 billion, Commerce grants $0.9 billion, the Working Families Tax Credit $0.5 billion) and long-term-care rates. Low-income health care and corrections grew more slowly than the benchmark, and spending outside K-12 grew faster than K-12 (122.5% vs 104.9%). The I-1351 class-size initiative added almost nothing: the 2015-17 budget counted its $2.0 billion cost and then saved $2.04 billion by modifying it.

Limit: Which spending counts as court-ordered is a judgment: McCleary required ample school funding but the Legislature chose the salary levels and the levy swap, and the Trueblood share of behavioral health could not be separated. Part of the K-12 increase replaced local levy money.

Verify: Spending above the population x inflation benchmark, by area Spending above the benchmark by program group NGF growth excluding K-12 2015-17 Legislative Budget Notes

5. Against the size of the economy, the answer depends on the starting year General-fund appropriations as a share of BEA state personal income by biennium.

Spending was 5.95% of personal income in 2005-07, 4.78% in 2013-15 and 5.39% in 2023-25. Held at the 2013-15 share, 2023-25 spending would have been $64.5 billion, $8.2 billion below actual; held at the 2005-07 share, $80.3 billion, $7.6 billion above actual. On this one measure from a pre-recession base, there is no excess.

Limit: Personal income is one measure of the economy's ability to pay; it is not a measure of what services cost. The choice of base year drives the result.

Verify: NGF as a share of personal income

6. The largest audited losses are outside the general fund; general-fund findings run in the millions State Auditor performance audits of the largest documented losses and of a general-fund program.

The State Auditor found at least $647 million paid to fraudsters in 2020 unemployment claims, money from the unemployment trust fund and federal programs rather than the general fund. A 2024 audit found Medicaid premiums of about $8.6 million a year paid for people also enrolled in other states. Findings like these are worth fixing, but they are tens of millions of general-fund dollars a year, far short of a $2-4 billion gap.

Limit: These are examples, not a full inventory of waste; no audit measures waste across the whole budget. Single-audit questioned costs mean auditors could not confirm payments were allowable, not proven losses.

Verify: Washington's Unemployment Benefit Programs in 2020 (performance audit, report 1028078, April 13, 2021) Medicaid concurrent enrollment (performance audit, October 28, 2024), summary

Common questions

“Without the millionaires tax, balancing the 2027-29 budget would take real cuts.”

Short answer: True: about 2-5%

Yes. Because the outlook already counts on the revenue and I-645 keeps the tax relief, repeal leaves a 2027-29 shortfall of about $2.0-4.4 billion. Closing it with spending alone would hold 2027-29 growth to between +0.4% and -2.6%, a cut of 2.5-5.4% from projected spending and a real cut per resident, not just slower growth. Reserves or other revenue could cover part of it. The April 2026 outlook projects a rainy-day fund (Budget Stabilization Account) balance of about $2.8 billion at the end of 2027-29, within $3.4 billion of total reserves (the rainy-day fund plus the general-fund balance); $880 million of that rainy-day balance depends on an intended June 2029 transfer from a pension surplus account. That is a projection for the end of 2027-29, not the reserves on hand now: the same outlook puts total reserves at $1.3 billion, $1.0 billion of it in the rainy-day fund, at the end of 2025-27, and later forecasts change these figures. Repeal would also shrink the projected total reserves, because the general-fund balance is part of them. This is the strongest point for keeping the tax, and it is consistent with the finding: the cut is real and small next to the decade's growth.

“Once fully collected, the tax is much bigger than its 2027-29 revenue.”

Short answer: Yes, about $9.4 billion in 2029-31

Yes. 2027-29 has only one year of collections. In 2029-31 the September forecast puts the tax at about $9.4 billion, roughly half the $16.9-21.2 billion excess and more than the excess measured against the 2013-15 share of income. That is why the rated claim names 2027-29.

“Relative to the economy, Washington's budget is smaller than it was in 2005.”

Short answer: Yes, since 2005-07

True: 5.39% of personal income in 2023-25 versus 5.95% in 2005-07, and on that measure there is no excess. But spending is above population-and-price paths from every base year, including 2005-07, and its share of income has risen every biennium since 2013-15. Both comparisons are accurate; they measure different things.

“The growth was forced by the courts (McCleary).”

Short answer: About half of it

Partly. K-12, driven by the McCleary decision, is 38% of the excess and behavioral health, partly under the Trueblood case, another 10%. The Legislature still chose the salary levels and funding design, and spending outside K-12 grew faster than K-12. School districts' own books show real per-student funding up about a third, while test results fell (see the linked school-spending check).

Related claim: Washington's school spending outpaced inflation as test results slipped. — Mostly true: inflation-adjusted spending per student rose 30% in eight years while math scores and Washington's education ranking fell. This links to the version that was current when this fact check was written. Read the latest version.

“The state could replace the tax by cutting waste.”

Short answer: Not on the audit record

Audited waste does not come close. The largest documented loss, 2020 unemployment fraud, was trust-fund and federal money, and the general-fund findings we found are in the millions to tens of millions a year. Most of the growth above the benchmark is deliberate programs (schools, child care, behavioral health, long-term care, higher education) that the Legislature chose and could choose to change. The supportable phrase is spending choices, not waste.

Related claim: Seattle's homelessness spending tripled while homelessness kept rising. — Seattle's homelessness budget tripled from 2017 to 2026, and King County's homeless count rose rather than fell. This links to the version that was current when this fact check was written. Read the latest version.

“The numbers prove the tax isn't needed.”

Short answer: That is a value judgment

They don't settle it. The facts are that spending has grown far beyond population and inflation and that the outlook counts on the tax. Whether to close the gap by spending less, drawing reserves or keeping the tax depends on what voters want the state to do.

“Medicaid and rising caseloads drove the growth.”

Short answer: Mostly no

General-fund spending on low-income health care in the Health Care Authority grew less than population times prices, even as Medicaid enrollment rose, because most expansion costs are federal. Long-term-care caseloads rose about 27% while its spending rose 163%, so most of that growth was higher cost per client.

“Washington has record revenues.”

Our rating: Mostly true

In dollars, yes: revenue subject to the budget outlook reached $37.64 billion in fiscal 2026, up 9.2% and the most ever, in the state's September 2026 forecast, and each recent biennium has set a new dollar high. It is not a record relative to the economy: as a share of personal income, revenue peaked at 5.41% in 2021-23 and was 4.97% in 2023-25, and part of the recent rise comes from the 2025 tax package. A record also does not close the budget gap: the Washington Research Council puts enacted 2025-27 appropriations $3.9 billion above forecast revenue. So the sentence is accurate in nominal terms but does not by itself show the state can do without the tax.

Conclusion

On the question the claim asks, the numbers agree across every measure we tried. Grow 2013-15 general-fund spending with population and consumer prices, Seattle prices or the government price index, and 2023-25 spending sits $16.9-21.2 billion above the path. The millionaires tax would bring in $2.31 billion net in the budget outlook, $2.70 billion gross in the fiscal note, or $3.50 billion gross in the September 2026 forecast during 2027-29, its first biennium, which has only one year of collections. That is a ninth to a fifth of the excess, or five to nine times smaller. The claim is rated True with high confidence because every input comes from a primary budget, forecast or statistical document and the comparison holds under all three price measures. The comparison has limits that matter to how it is used. First, the tax gets bigger: in its first full biennium, 2029-31, the forecast puts it at about $9.4 billion, roughly half the excess. A claim that the tax is a small fraction of spending growth is true for 2027-29 and goes too far for later years. Second, measured against the size of the state economy rather than population and prices, the picture depends on the base year: spending is $8.2 billion above the 2013-15 share of personal income but $7.6 billion below the 2005-07 share. Third, about half the growth above the benchmark traces to court orders (McCleary for K-12 and, in part, Trueblood for behavioral health), though the Legislature chose how much to spend in response; another 45% is new or expanded programs and higher provider rates, and Medicaid caseloads explain little. The other side has a real point, and it is a fact, not a value: the state's adopted four-year outlook already counts on the tax. Because I-645 keeps the tax relief, repeal removes the gross revenue, turning a projected $0.65 billion 2027-29 balance into a shortfall of about $2.0 billion on the adopted figures, $2.9 billion on the September forecast, or about $4.4 billion starting from the Washington Research Council's adjusted balance. Closing it would take 2027-29 spending growth of +0.4% to -2.6% over 2025-27, a 2.5-5.4% cut from projected spending, against growth of 14.8% in 2023-25. Reserves or other revenue could cover part of it instead. That is a real cut, and small next to a decade of growth above population and inflation; both statements are true. Whether the state should close such a gap by spending less or by keeping the tax is a choice for voters, not something this evidence settles. What it does show is that audited waste could not close it: the largest audited losses are in federal and unemployment-insurance money, and the general-fund items found run in the tens of millions a year.

How we checked

  1. Defined the claim as: Washington's Near General Fund-Outlook spending in 2023-25 exceeded 2013-15 spending grown only with population and prices by about $17-21 billion, five to nine times the millionaires tax's 2027-29 revenue.
  2. Measured spending above the path with three price measures (U.S. CPI-U, Seattle CPI-U, BEA state and local government prices) and against personal income, from several base years, using the published FactHub dataset built from the Legislative Budget Notes.
  3. Took the tax's revenue from three official sources (fiscal note, budget outlook, September forecast), in both net and gross terms, and checked the 2029-31 figure against the forecast tables.
  4. Computed the 2027-29 balance without the tax, removing gross revenue because the Attorney General's explanatory statement says the relief stays, and the spending growth that would close each gap; added a second estimate from the Washington Research Council's adjusted balance.
  5. Broke the excess down by budget area and program group, and classified it as court-ordered, caseload, rates or new programs, stating that the classification is ours.
  6. Checked State Auditor reports for the largest documented losses, and whether they fall in the general fund.
  7. Recorded the limitations of each line, including static revenue estimates, projections and base-year choice.

Editorial note: Scope: Washington's Near General Fund-Outlook (the budget paid from general state taxes) and ESSB 6346's revenue. The spending figures are final appropriations, not actual spending. The 2027-29 figures are projections and will change with the November 2026 forecast and the 2027 budget. The benchmark comparison measures growth, not whether any program is worth its cost; for what some of that spending bought, see the linked school-spending and homelessness checks. This article was prepared alongside other FactHub checks of I-645 claims from both campaigns.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: Published by the FactHub Research Team.

Conflicts: No conflicts of interest are known. FactHub takes no position on I-645.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. Spending above benchmark paths vs. millionaires-tax revenue

    Saved analysis comparing 2023-25 spending above population-and-price and income paths with the millionaires tax's revenue estimates.

    • 2023-25 spending was $21.2B above the 2013-15 population x U.S. CPI path, $20.6B with government prices and $16.9B with Seattle prices.

    • The tax would raise $2.31B net to $3.50B gross in 2027-29 and about $9.44B in 2029-31.

  2. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. 2027-29 outlook balance without the millionaires tax

    Saved analysis of the 2027-29 balance with and without the tax and the spending growth that would close each gap.

    • Qualifies: Removing the tax but keeping its relief turns a +$0.65B 2027-29 balance into -$2.0B to -$4.4B; closing it takes 2027-29 growth of +0.4% to -2.6%, a 2.5-5.4% cut.

  3. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. Growth to 2023-25 from every base biennium

    Saved analysis repeating the growth comparison from each base biennium since 2005-07.

    • Spending grew faster than population x CPI from every base biennium back to 2005-07.

  4. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. NGF as a share of personal income

    Saved analysis of general-fund appropriations as a share of state personal income.

    • Qualifies: Spending was 5.95% of personal income in 2005-07, 4.78% in 2013-15 and 5.39% in 2023-25.

  5. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. Spending above the population x inflation benchmark, by area

    Saved analysis of the excess by budget area.

    • Qualifies: K-12 accounts for $8.1B (38%) of the $21.2B excess.

  6. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. Spending above the benchmark by program group

    Saved analysis of the excess by reorganization-adjusted program group.

    • Child care and early learning +$3.2B, behavioral health +$2.1B, long-term care +$2.0B, DD +$1.0B above the benchmark; low-income health care -$0.3B and corrections -$0.1B.

  7. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. NGF growth excluding K-12

    Saved analysis of general-fund growth outside K-12.

    • Spending outside K-12 grew 122.5%, faster than K-12.

  8. Government Washington Office of Financial Management. Multiple agency fiscal note summary: ESSB 6346, tax on millionaires (2026)

    The Legislature's fiscal note for the millionaires tax, with the Department of Revenue's revenue estimate and assumptions.

    Reliability: Prepared by the Department of Revenue and OFM for the Legislature before passage. Its revenue estimate is static.

    • Qualifies: The revenue estimate assumes high earners do not change their behavior in response to the tax.

      What the source says
      In response to the new tax, affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income.
      Department of Revenue assumptions, Part I through Part VIII: Tax on income
  9. Government Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP. 2026 Supplemental Legislative Budget Notes

    Nonpartisan legislative staff summary of the enacted 2026 supplemental operating budget and its four-year outlook.

    Reliability: Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff from the enacted budget; the outlook follows the Forecast Council's adopted figures.

    • The enacted budget's four-year outlook projects a positive 2027-29 balance of about $654 million.

      What the source says
      assumed in these Legislative Budget Notes projects a 2027-29 biennium ending balance of $654.0 million
      p. O-3, 2025-27 NGF-O Ending Balance and the Four-Year Outlook

    • The outlook counts about $2.2 billion of net 2027-29 revenue from 2026 legislation, including the millionaires tax.

      What the source says
      a net increase of $2.2 billion NGF-O from revenue legislation in the 2027-29 biennium, including from Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (ESSB 6346)
      p. O-3, Revenue Legislation Impacting the Balance Sheet and Outlook

    • Qualifies: Part of the projected 2027-29 rainy-day balance rests on an intended $880 million transfer from a pension account.

      What the source says
      A portion of the projected BSA ending balance for 2027-29 is attributable to the stated intent to transfer
      p. O-3

    • Qualifies: At the end of 2025-27 the enacted budget leaves $1.3 billion in total reserves, $1.0 billion of it in the rainy-day fund (BSA).

      What the source says
      biennium of $277.1 million NGF-O and $1.3 billion in total reserves, including $1.0 billion in the BSA
      p. O-3, 2025-27 NGF-O Ending Balance and the Four-Year Outlook

    • Qualifies: The outlook projects $3.4 billion in total reserves at the end of 2027-29, $2.8 billion of it in the rainy-day fund (BSA).

      What the source says
      NGF-O and $3.4 billion in total reserves, including $2.8 billion in the BSA
      p. O-3, 2025-27 NGF-O Ending Balance and the Four-Year Outlook
  10. Government Washington Attorney General. Explanatory statement, Initiative Measure No. 645 (July 23, 2026)

    The Attorney General's official explanatory statement for the voters' pamphlet.

    Reliability: Required by law to be neutral; a court approved it with minor edits after a challenge.

    • I-645 would keep the tax relief enacted with the millionaires tax, so repeal removes the gross revenue.

      What the source says
      The non-income tax credits, exemptions, and deductions that accompanied this tax would not be repealed and would remain in place.
      Effect of the measure if approved
  11. Advocacy group Washington Research Council. New brief: I-645, repealing the state individual income tax (Sept. 22, 2026)

    Research Council summary of what I-645 would do to state revenue.

    Reliability: Business-funded nonpartisan research group that has criticized state spending growth; here it restates official forecast figures.

    • No current appropriation depends on the tax, because it is not yet collected.

      What the source says
      Because the income tax is not yet being collected, no current appropriations rely on the revenues.
      Body text

    • Qualifies: The current outlook assumes $2.698 billion of income-tax revenue in 2027-29.

      What the source says
      The outlook for the current operating budget assumes $2.698 billion in income tax revenues in 2027–29.
      Body text
  12. Advocacy group Washington Research Council (Emily Makings). The budget problem could be short-term, if the Legislature chooses (Oct. 2, 2026)

    Research Council update of the budget outlook using the June and September 2026 revenue forecasts.

    Reliability: Business-funded nonpartisan research group that favors slower spending growth; the adjusted balance is its own estimate, not an official outlook.

    • Qualifies: Removing what it calls dubious assumptions, the Research Council puts the 2027-29 balance at about -$924 million even with the tax.

      What the source says
      Excluding those, I estimate that the NGFO ending balance is about -$234 million at the end of 2025–27 and -$924 million at the end of 2027–29.
      Body text

    • Spending has grown 15.6% a biennium on average since 2013-15; at the long-run 10.6% pace the 2027-29 gap would be $6.1 billion even with the tax.

      What the source says
      average growth since 2013–15 has been 15.6%.) If appropriations are allowed to grow by 10.6% in 2027–29 and 2029–31, the gap would increase to $6.1 billion in 2027–29
      Body text, spending scenarios
  13. Government Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP. 2015-17 Legislative Budget Notes

    Nonpartisan legislative staff summary of the 2015-17 operating budget.

    Reliability: Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff from the enacted budget.

    • Qualifies: The 2015-17 budget notes tie $741 million of K-12 maintenance-level costs to the McCleary decision.

      What the source says
      $741 million for materials, supplies and operating costs required by House Bill 2776 (Chapter 236, Laws of 2010) and related to the McCleary decision
      p. O-10, Projected Spending

    • Qualifies: The 2015-17 budget counted I-1351's class-size cost and then saved almost all of it by modifying the initiative.

      What the source says
      reduced spending of approximately $2.95 billion ($2.04 billion by modifying I-1351)
      p. O-10
  14. Government Washington State Auditor's Office. Washington's Unemployment Benefit Programs in 2020 (performance audit, report 1028078, April 13, 2021)

    State Auditor performance audit of the Employment Security Department's pandemic unemployment programs.

    Reliability: Independently elected State Auditor; the audit was requested by the Legislature.

    • Qualifies: ESD paid at least $647 million to fraudsters in 2020, from unemployment programs funded outside the general fund.

      What the source says
      As of December 2020, ESD had identified $647 million in fraudulent payments made during the pandemic, but the total is likely greater.
      p. 12
  15. Government Washington State Auditor's Office. Medicaid concurrent enrollment (performance audit, October 28, 2024), summary

    State Auditor audit of Medicaid premiums paid for people also enrolled in other states' Medicaid.

    Reliability: Independently elected State Auditor; the Health Care Authority and DSHS agreed with the findings.

    • Qualifies: Washington paid about $8.6 million a year in unnecessary Medicaid premiums for people enrolled in other states.

      What the source says
      Washington unnecessarily paid, on average, $8.6 million a year in premiums for long-term concurrent enrollees
      Summary
  16. FactHub record FactHub dataset: Washington general fund growth, v5. Revenue vs. appropriations by biennium

    Saved analysis of NGF-O revenue and appropriations by biennium, in dollars and as a share of personal income.

    • Qualifies: Biennial revenue reached $67.1B in 2023-25, but as a share of personal income it peaked at 5.41% in 2021-23 and was 4.97% in 2023-25.

  17. Government Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2026

    The state's official quarterly revenue forecast, including a history of revenue subject to the budget outlook by fiscal year.

    Reliability: Adopted by the bipartisan Forecast Council; Table 3.17 restates history to the current definition of funds subject to the outlook.

    • Revenue subject to the outlook was $37.64 billion in fiscal 2026, up 9.2%, the highest in nominal dollars.

      What the source says
      $37,641
      Table 3.17, fiscal year 2026 total (printed p. 70)
  18. Advocacy group Washington Research Council (Emily Makings). Revenues for 2025-27 and 2027-29 are still lower than expected when the 2026 budget was adopted (Sept. 25, 2026)

    Research Council summary of the September 2026 revenue forecast and the budget gap.

    Reliability: Business-funded nonpartisan research group that favors slower spending growth; the gap figure compares enacted appropriations with the official forecast.

    • Qualifies: Even with record nominal revenue, enacted 2025-27 appropriations exceed forecast revenue by $3.9 billion.

      What the source says
      The gap between enacted appropriations and estimated revenues for 2025–27 is now $3.9 billion.
      Body text
  19. FactHub dataset Washington Near General Fund budget and revenue by biennium, 2005-07 to 2027-29, with benchmarks, growth drivers, K-12, cross-state and millionaires-tax comparisons

    • Tables: need-vs-growth, ngf-by-biennium, benchmarks

      Analysis excess-vs-millionaires-tax

    • Tables: outlook-gap

      Analysis outlook-gap-without-tax

  20. FactHub dataset Initiative 645: the campaigns' claims in their own words
    • Washington has record revenues.
      Committee for the argument for Initiative 645 (Sen. Chris Gildon and five co-authors), Authors of the official voters' pamphlet argument for I-645, · In the dataset
  21. FactHub chart wa-spending-excess-vs-millionaires-tax
  22. FactHub chart wa-outlook-2027-29-without-millionaires-tax

Update history

  1. Version 3: cites dataset version 5 and chart version 3 (same data, credited to the FactHub Research Team); dataset sources renamed to match the cited version (First Look feedback 2516096525284589629-bf792bd3333c69d31f0f8789e13aff0b); new main photo; disclosure updated; companion I-645 links to be added when that set is final.
  2. Version 4: added that the tax relief survives repeal by I-645 but is voided if a court strikes the tax down (ESSB 6346 Sec. 1202).
  3. Version 5: rated the Yes campaign's voters' pamphlet rebuttal 'Washington has record revenues' (Mostly true), citing the campaign-statements dataset, the September 2026 revenue forecast and the Washington Research Council.
  4. Version 6: the rainy-day figure is now labeled as the projected Budget Stabilization Account balance at the end of 2027-29 (about $2.8 billion, within $3.4 billion of total reserves) and contrasted with total reserves of $1.3 billion at the end of 2025-27.
  5. Initial version.
  6. Version 2: cites dataset version 4 and chart version 2, which shorten chart labels so they are readable. No findings changed.

Cited by

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this article each cites.

  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 6 (published) cites version 6
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 4 (published) cites version 6

For search, research, and AI systems

Machine-readable fact-check

This page includes standardized ClaimReview metadata describing the exact claim, FactHub's finding, publisher, and review dates. You can inspect the record below and confirm that it matches the article you just read.

View ClaimReview JSON 
{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"ClaimReview","url":"https://facthub.org/n/article/wa-spending-growth-vs-millionaires-tax/6","datePublished":"2026-10-21","dateModified":"2026-10-21","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"FactHub","url":"https://facthub.org/"},"claimReviewed":"Washington\u0027s general-fund spending has outgrown population and inflation by about $17-21 billion a biennium since 2013-15, five to nine times what the millionaires tax would raise in 2027-29.","reviewRating":{"@type":"Rating","alternateName":"True"},"image":"https://facthub.org/node-assets-v2/article/wa-spending-growth-vs-millionaires-tax/6/capitol-lake/social-1200x630.jpg"}

This metadata helps machines discover the fact-check. It does not prove the conclusion or guarantee special treatment by a search engine.

Challenge this fact-check

Every source above is linked so you can check it yourself. Identify the specific conclusion you dispute and provide verifiable evidence that could change it. Credible challenges deserve review and a visible response.

Submit evidence Send general feedback instead

Technical details: node handle article:wa-spending-growth-vs-millionaires-tax