Five-second answer
Claim we investigated
Washington's school spending has grown while its education results have declined, from 20th to 31st nationally.
Mostly true. Inflation-adjusted spending per student rose 30% in eight years while math scores and Washington's education ranking fell. NCES data adjusted for inflation and enrollment show per-pupil spending rising 30% from 2010-11 to 2018-19, Census data put Washington 17th in FY2024, and NAEP scores and the Kids Count ranking both declined, though Washington remains near or above the national average on NAEP.
Quote or cite this fact-check
FactHub rates the claim “Washington's school spending has grown while its education results have declined, from 20th to 31st nationally” Mostly true (high confidence): Inflation-adjusted spending per student rose 30% in eight years while math scores and Washington's education ranking fell. Reviewed October 14, 2026.
One-minute summary
What the evidence establishes
- After adjusting for inflation, Washington's per-pupil spending rose 30% from 2010-11 to 2018-19 ($13,039 to $16,970 in 2022-23 dollars), versus 8% nationally; it went from below the U.S. average to above it.
- Per-pupil figures already account for enrollment. Washington's enrollment grew 9% to a 2019 peak and has since fallen, so more students explain little of the spending growth.
- Washington spent $18,564 per pupil in FY2024, 17th among the 50 states (Census Bureau, not inflation-adjusted).
- Washington's eighth-grade NAEP math average fell from 290 in 2013 to 274 in 2024, and its Kids Count education rank fell from 20th (2015) to 31st (2026).
- Washington still scores at or above the national average on most NAEP tests, scores fell nationwide after 2019, and research finds sustained spending usually helps modestly; whether money or leadership is the problem remains unproven.
The evidence
The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.
| Method | Institution / country | Year(s) | What it shows | Key limitation | Primary links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal annual survey of school system finances | U.S. Census Bureau United States | 2024, 2026 | The Census Bureau's 2024 Annual Survey of School System Finances, released May 7, 2026, reports current spending of $18,564 per pupil in Washington. That is 17th among the 50 states (18th if the District of Columbia is counted) and 5.4% above the national figure of $17,619. New York spent the most ($31,918) and Idaho the least ($11,060). | Figures are nominal current spending, excluding construction and debt, and are not adjusted for Washington's higher costs. Other measures rank Washington differently: a 2024 legislative report and NEA estimates both place it 14th. The state-by-state pairing was taken from a published ranked list and checked against every value in the Census chart. | U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Census Bureau FactHub |
| Federal school finance data in constant dollars, per enrolled pupil | National Center for Education Statistics United States | 2011, 2019, 2021, 2022 | NCES reports Washington's current spending per pupil in constant 2022-23 dollars rose from $13,039 in 2010-11 to $16,970 in 2018-19, a 30% real increase, while the U.S. average rose 8%, from $14,453 to $15,606. Washington moved from about 10% below the national average to 9% above it. Because these figures are per enrolled student, they already account for population growth. Enrollment itself rose 9.2% from fall 2011 to a peak of 1,142,073 in fall 2019, then fell 4.5% to 1,090,227 by fall 2022. | The CPI measures general inflation; school costs such as salaries and health insurance can rise faster. The figures are not adjusted for regional cost differences. NCES data end in 2020-21, and the last two years include federal pandemic funds, so we measure growth to 2018-19. NCES and Census use different definitions, so their figures are not combined. | National Center for Education Statistics National Center for Education Statistics FactHub |
| Composite index of four state education indicators | Annie E. Casey Foundation, Washington State Standard United States | 2015, 2024, 2025, 2026 | The 2026 Kids Count Data Book ranked Washington 31st in education, down from 27th in 2025 and 26th in 2024. A June 2025 report on the Data Book noted Washington was 20th ten years earlier. In the 2025 edition, 70% of Washington eighth graders were not proficient in math and 57% of 3- and 4-year-olds were not in preschool. | This is one index, not a test-score ranking: it combines preschool enrollment of 3- and 4-year-olds, fourth-grade reading, eighth-grade math and on-time high school graduation. Ranks are relative, so a state can fall without getting worse. We could not retrieve the Kids Count Data Center directly; values come from news reports of each Data Book, and editions from 2016 to 2023 are not shown. OSPI disputes the methodology. | Washington State Standard (via Seattle's Child) Seattle's Child Seattle's Child Washington State Standard (via Seattle's Child) FactHub |
| Federal standardized assessment of representative student samples | National Center for Education Statistics United States | 2003, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024 | On the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress, only 4 or 5 states significantly outscored Washington in fourth-grade reading and math and eighth-grade reading, but 14 did in eighth-grade math. Washington's eighth-grade math average fell from 290 in 2013 to 274 in 2024, below its 2003 score of 281; the national public average fell from 276 in 2003 to 272. | NAEP scores carry sampling error, and declines after 2019 were nationwide and coincide with the pandemic. Score trends alone cannot show what caused them; they do not isolate the effect of spending. | National Center for Education Statistics National Center for Education Statistics National Center for Education Statistics Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction FactHub |
| Analysis of state budget and Census finance data | Washington Research Council United States | 2011, 2018, 2020 | After the 2012 McCleary decision, the Legislature increased state spending on public schools by 110% from 2009-11 to 2019-21, against 52% for all other programs. Per-pupil spending rose 37% from 2010-11 to 2017-18, the fastest growth of any state over that period. | The Washington Research Council is a business-supported policy group. Its analysis covers spending through 2018-19; the figures are nominal, and growth partly reflects a court order to restore underfunding found unconstitutional in 2012. | Washington Research Council |
| Meta-analysis of 31 causal studies | Northwestern University, National Bureau of Economic Research United States | 2021, 2023 | Kirabo Jackson and Claire Mackevicius pooled 31 credibly causal studies of U.S. school spending. They estimate that raising spending by $1,000 per pupil for four years raises test scores by about 0.035 standard deviations, a small effect, with larger gains in graduation and college-going; effects were positive in the large majority of cases. | The studies cover many states and decades, not Washington specifically, and average effects can hide large differences in how money is used. Some researchers argue the effects are smaller than this synthesis suggests. | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| Government audits, budget statements and staffing data | Washington State Auditor's Office, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction, Georgetown University Edunomics Lab United States | 2013, 2023, 2026 | Georgetown's Edunomics Lab found Washington school staffing grew about 20% over roughly a decade while enrollment grew less than 3%. OSPI says K-12's share of the state budget fell from 51.6% in 2019-21 to about 42% in 2026 House and Senate proposals; Superintendent Reykdal is now seeking nearly $2 billion more for 2027-29. The State Auditor's annual accountability audits test legal compliance: Moses Lake School District, for example, was found in 2026 not to have complied with state budget requirements. No routine audit links spending to student results. | OSPI's budget-share figures come from the agency seeking more money, and the 2025-27 numbers are proposals. The staffing figure covers about a decade before 2023 and does not split teachers from other staff. Audits cover individual districts, not the system as a whole. | The Hechinger Report Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction Oregon Public Broadcasting / Washington State Standard Washington State Auditor's Office KATU News |
1. Census data: Washington is 17th in per-pupil spending
The Census Bureau's 2024 Annual Survey of School System Finances, released May 7, 2026, reports current spending of $18,564 per pupil in Washington. That is 17th among the 50 states (18th if the District of Columbia is counted) and 5.4% above the national figure of $17,619. New York spent the most ($31,918) and Idaho the least ($11,060).
Limit: Figures are nominal current spending, excluding construction and debt, and are not adjusted for Washington's higher costs. Other measures rank Washington differently: a 2024 legislative report and NEA estimates both place it 14th. The state-by-state pairing was taken from a published ranked list and checked against every value in the Census chart.
Verify: U.S. School System Current Spending Per Pupil by Region: Fiscal Year 2024 Public School Spending Per Pupil Reaches Historic High in 2024 (May 7, 2026) Washington K-12 spending and outcomes dataset
2. After inflation and enrollment, spending per student rose 30%
NCES reports Washington's current spending per pupil in constant 2022-23 dollars rose from $13,039 in 2010-11 to $16,970 in 2018-19, a 30% real increase, while the U.S. average rose 8%, from $14,453 to $15,606. Washington moved from about 10% below the national average to 9% above it. Because these figures are per enrolled student, they already account for population growth. Enrollment itself rose 9.2% from fall 2011 to a peak of 1,142,073 in fall 2019, then fell 4.5% to 1,090,227 by fall 2022.
Limit: The CPI measures general inflation; school costs such as salaries and health insurance can rise faster. The figures are not adjusted for regional cost differences. NCES data end in 2020-21, and the last two years include federal pandemic funds, so we measure growth to 2018-19. NCES and Census use different definitions, so their figures are not combined.
Verify: Digest of Education Statistics 2023, Table 236.65: Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment, by state Digest of Education Statistics 2023, Table 203.20: Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state Washington K-12 spending and outcomes dataset
3. Kids Count: education rank fell from 20th to 31st
The 2026 Kids Count Data Book ranked Washington 31st in education, down from 27th in 2025 and 26th in 2024. A June 2025 report on the Data Book noted Washington was 20th ten years earlier. In the 2025 edition, 70% of Washington eighth graders were not proficient in math and 57% of 3- and 4-year-olds were not in preschool.
Limit: This is one index, not a test-score ranking: it combines preschool enrollment of 3- and 4-year-olds, fourth-grade reading, eighth-grade math and on-time high school graduation. Ranks are relative, so a state can fall without getting worse. We could not retrieve the Kids Count Data Center directly; values come from news reports of each Data Book, and editions from 2016 to 2023 are not shown. OSPI disputes the methodology.
Verify: 2026 KIDS COUNT Spotlight: Big drop in WA education ranking 2025 KIDS COUNT: Washington state's education rankings decline KIDS COUNT 2024: WA must do better for kids WA is stuck mid-pack in national education ranking (June 2025) Washington K-12 spending and outcomes dataset
4. NAEP: math scores fell, but Washington stays near the national average
On the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress, only 4 or 5 states significantly outscored Washington in fourth-grade reading and math and eighth-grade reading, but 14 did in eighth-grade math. Washington's eighth-grade math average fell from 290 in 2013 to 274 in 2024, below its 2003 score of 281; the national public average fell from 276 in 2003 to 272.
Limit: NAEP scores carry sampling error, and declines after 2019 were nationwide and coincide with the pandemic. Score trends alone cannot show what caused them; they do not isolate the effect of spending.
Verify: 2024 Mathematics State Snapshot Report: Washington, Grade 8 2019 Mathematics State Snapshot Report: Washington, Grade 8 2015 Mathematics State Snapshot Report: Washington, Grade 8 On National Test, Washington Students Continue to Perform on Par or Better Than Their Peers, but 8th Grade Math is a Significant Challenge Washington K-12 spending and outcomes dataset
5. Spending rose sharply after the McCleary ruling
After the 2012 McCleary decision, the Legislature increased state spending on public schools by 110% from 2009-11 to 2019-21, against 52% for all other programs. Per-pupil spending rose 37% from 2010-11 to 2017-18, the fastest growth of any state over that period.
Limit: The Washington Research Council is a business-supported policy group. Its analysis covers spending through 2018-19; the figures are nominal, and growth partly reflects a court order to restore underfunding found unconstitutional in 2012.
Verify: Years of increased spending on K-12 are showing up in the national rankings (Sept. 2, 2020)
6. Research: more money usually helps, modestly
Kirabo Jackson and Claire Mackevicius pooled 31 credibly causal studies of U.S. school spending. They estimate that raising spending by $1,000 per pupil for four years raises test scores by about 0.035 standard deviations, a small effect, with larger gains in graduation and college-going; effects were positive in the large majority of cases.
Limit: The studies cover many states and decades, not Washington specifically, and average effects can hide large differences in how money is used. Some researchers argue the effects are smaller than this synthesis suggests.
7. Where the money went, and who checks it
Georgetown's Edunomics Lab found Washington school staffing grew about 20% over roughly a decade while enrollment grew less than 3%. OSPI says K-12's share of the state budget fell from 51.6% in 2019-21 to about 42% in 2026 House and Senate proposals; Superintendent Reykdal is now seeking nearly $2 billion more for 2027-29. The State Auditor's annual accountability audits test legal compliance: Moses Lake School District, for example, was found in 2026 not to have complied with state budget requirements. No routine audit links spending to student results.
Limit: OSPI's budget-share figures come from the agency seeking more money, and the 2025-27 numbers are proposals. The staffing figure covers about a decade before 2023 and does not split teachers from other staff. Audits cover individual districts, not the system as a whole.
Verify: PROOF POINTS: Schools staff up as student enrollment drops Reykdal: Budget Proposals Confirm Legislature does not Intend to Fully Fund K-12 Education (Feb. 23, 2026) Reykdal seeks $2B infusion for Washington public schools in next budget (Sept. 2026) Moses Lake School District did not comply with state budget requirements, had declining financial condition, audit finds (Mar. 19, 2026) Washington superintendent calls for more school funding as math scores lag
Common questions
“Spending only looks higher because of inflation and a growing student population.”
Both were checked. NCES per-pupil figures in constant dollars rose 30% from 2010-11 to 2018-19, versus 8% nationally, and they already divide by enrollment. Enrollment grew 9% to 2019 and has since fallen. One caveat: Washington is a high-cost state, and the CPI does not capture regional costs or school-specific costs like health insurance.
“Washington is a top performer on national tests, so '31st place results' is false.”
On NAEP, Washington is at or above average in most grades and subjects, which is why we rate the claim Mostly true rather than True. But 31st is a real ranking from a widely cited index, and eighth-grade math has slipped relative to other states.
“The decline shows money doesn't matter.”
The trend alone can't show that. Scores also fell nationally after 2019, and causal research finds sustained spending increases usually help. What the data do show is that large increases have not, by themselves, produced higher scores in Washington.
Conclusion
The post's core point checks out: Washington spends substantially more per student than it did a decade ago, even after inflation, while key results have declined. NCES data show inflation-adjusted current spending per pupil rose 30% from 2010-11 to 2018-19, from $13,039 to $16,970 in 2022-23 dollars, against 8% nationally, taking Washington from about 10% below the U.S. average to 9% above it. Because these are per-student figures, population growth does not explain the increase; enrollment rose 9% to a 2019 peak and has fallen since. In fiscal 2024, Census data put Washington 17th among the states at $18,564 per pupil. Over a similar period, Washington's eighth-grade NAEP math average fell from 290 in 2013 to 274 in 2024, below its 2003 level, and the Kids Count Data Book's education rank fell from 20th in 2015 to 31st in 2026. We rate the claim Mostly true rather than True for three reasons. First, '31st' comes from one composite index that also counts preschool enrollment and on-time graduation; on NAEP, Washington still scores at or above the national average in most grades and subjects, with eighth-grade math the clear weak spot (14 states significantly ahead). Second, scores fell nationwide after 2019, so Washington's decline is not unique. Third, the CPI understates some school costs and does not adjust for Washington's high cost of living. The post's broader conclusion, that the problem is leadership and ideology and not money, goes beyond what the evidence can show. The best synthesis of causal research finds that sustained spending increases usually improve outcomes, modestly, and that how money is spent matters. Much of Washington's added money went to staff and salaries: staffing grew about 20% over roughly a decade while enrollment grew under 3%. At the same time, K-12's share of the state budget has fallen from 51.6% in 2019-21 to about 42% in 2026 proposals, by the superintendent's own figures, and districts face rising costs and shrinking enrollment. Existing audits check whether money is spent legally, not whether it improves learning. That gap is a fair accountability question; whether more money or different leadership would raise achievement remains unproven.
How we checked
- Defined the claim as three numbers: per-pupil spending rank (17th), education rank (31st), and the rank a decade ago (20th).
- Checked the spending rank against the Census Bureau's fiscal 2024 school finance data, measured spending growth with NCES per-pupil expenditures in constant 2022-23 dollars, checked enrollment against NCES state enrollment counts, and checked the education ranks against news reports of each Kids Count Data Book.
- Added NAEP results from NCES state snapshot reports as an independent achievement measure not used in the post.
- Reviewed evidence on spending growth, research on spending effects, staffing, budget share and State Auditor findings for the accountability question.
- Put the numbers in a FactHub dataset with three charts, and recorded the limits of each source, including gaps where data could not be retrieved.
Editorial note: Scope: this article rates the post's claim that spending has grown while results declined, including its 17th, 31st and 20th figures, and reviews evidence on spending and accountability. It does not rate the post's description of the superintendent's political views or its conclusion that the cause is 'leadership and ideology', which the evidence cannot settle. Spending growth is measured with NCES inflation-adjusted per-pupil data through 2018-19 to avoid pandemic relief funds; the Census FY2024 figure is shown separately and not spliced into that series. A chart of K-12's share of the state budget was not included because only two data points could be verified.
Expert-review status
No external specialist review has been recorded.
Funding and conflicts
Funding: No external funding for this piece.
Ownership: FactHub is an independent fact-checking site; it has no ownership ties to the parties discussed.
Conflicts: None known.
Sources
Sources are labeled by their role so readers can evaluate the evidence independently.
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Official statistics
U.S. Census Bureau.
U.S. School System Current Spending Per Pupil by Region: Fiscal Year 2024
State-by-state per-pupil current spending for fiscal 2024; the primary source for the 17th-place ranking.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Official statistics
U.S. Census Bureau.
Public School Spending Per Pupil Reaches Historic High in 2024 (May 7, 2026)
Release giving the $17,619 national figure and the highest- and lowest-spending states.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Curated dataset
FactHub.
Washington K-12 spending and outcomes dataset
The spending (nominal and inflation-adjusted), enrollment, Kids Count and NAEP figures used in this article, with sources and limitations.
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News report
Washington State Standard (via Seattle's Child).
2026 KIDS COUNT Spotlight: Big drop in WA education ranking
Reports Washington fell from 27th to 31st in the 2026 Kids Count education ranking, and OSPI's response.
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News report
Seattle's Child.
2025 KIDS COUNT: Washington state's education rankings decline
Gives the 2025 rank (27th, from 26th) and Washington's values on the four education indicators.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
News report
Seattle's Child.
KIDS COUNT 2024: WA must do better for kids
Gives Washington's 26th-place education rank in the 2024 Data Book.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
News report
Washington State Standard (via Seattle's Child).
WA is stuck mid-pack in national education ranking (June 2025)
Source for Washington ranking 20th in education ten years before the 2025 Data Book.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Official assessment data
National Center for Education Statistics.
2024 Mathematics State Snapshot Report: Washington, Grade 8
Washington and national eighth-grade math scores for 2003, 2022 and 2024.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Official assessment data
National Center for Education Statistics.
2019 Mathematics State Snapshot Report: Washington, Grade 8
Scores for 2017 and 2019.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Official assessment data
National Center for Education Statistics.
2015 Mathematics State Snapshot Report: Washington, Grade 8
Scores for 2013 and 2015.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
State agency statement
Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.
On National Test, Washington Students Continue to Perform on Par or Better Than Their Peers, but 8th Grade Math is a Significant Challenge
Lists how many states significantly outscored Washington on each 2024 NAEP test.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Policy analysis
Washington Research Council.
Years of increased spending on K-12 are showing up in the national rankings (Sept. 2, 2020)
Quantifies post-McCleary growth in state K-12 spending and per-pupil spending.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Peer-reviewed study (working paper version)
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Jackson and Mackevicius, The Distribution of School Spending Impacts (NBER Working Paper 28517); published as What Impacts Can We Expect from School Spending Policy?, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (2023)
Identifier: NBER w28517
Meta-analysis of causal studies on school spending and student outcomes.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
News report of independent analysis
The Hechinger Report.
PROOF POINTS: Schools staff up as student enrollment drops
Reports Georgetown Edunomics Lab data showing Washington staffing up 20% against under 3% enrollment growth.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
News report
Oregon Public Broadcasting / Washington State Standard.
Reykdal seeks $2B infusion for Washington public schools in next budget (Sept. 2026)
Reports the superintendent's request for nearly $2 billion more in the 2027-29 budget.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Government audit
Washington State Auditor's Office.
Moses Lake School District did not comply with state budget requirements, had declining financial condition, audit finds (Mar. 19, 2026)
Example of an accountability audit finding budget and spending-control problems in a district.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
News report (origin of the debate)
KATU News.
Washington superintendent calls for more school funding as math scores lag
The report the post responds to, with the superintendent's funding request and the Washington Policy Center's response.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Official statistics
National Center for Education Statistics.
Digest of Education Statistics 2023, Table 236.65: Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment, by state
Per-pupil spending by state in unadjusted and constant 2022-23 dollars; the source for inflation-adjusted growth.
Archived copy captured October 14, 2026 -
Official statistics
National Center for Education Statistics.
Digest of Education Statistics 2023, Table 203.20: Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state
Washington public school enrollment, fall 2011 to fall 2022, with projections.
Archived copy captured October 10, 2026 -
FactHub dataset
Washington K-12 spending and outcomes: per-pupil spending (nominal and inflation-adjusted), enrollment, Kids Count rank, NAEP math
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Tables: per-pupil-fy2024
Saved analysis per-pupil-ranked
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Tables: nces-ppe-real
Saved analysis real-ppe-trend
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Tables: wa-enrollment
Saved analysis wa-enrollment-trend
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Tables: kc-education-rank
Saved analysis kc-rank-series
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Tables: naep-g8-math
Saved analysis naep-g8-math-trend
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- FactHub chart wa-per-pupil-spending-rank-fy2024
- FactHub chart wa-kids-count-education-rank
- FactHub chart wa-naep-grade8-math-trend
- FactHub chart wa-real-per-pupil-spending-trend
- FactHub chart wa-public-school-enrollment
Update history
- First draft.
- Version 2: simplified the title and reframed the rated claim around spending growth versus results; added inflation-adjusted per-pupil spending and enrollment evidence with two new charts; updated summary, key points, conclusion and the cost objection.
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