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Most top-rate tax estimates were beaten; recession years fell short

Actual revenue divided by the official estimate for 18 comparisons across 10 state and local taxes on high incomes. Above 1 means revenue beat the estimate.

Credit: FactHub Research Team, from official sources listed in the dataset

Node: chart:top-rate-taxes-actual-vs-estimate

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Point chart of actual revenue divided by the official estimate for 18 comparisons. California Propositions 30 and 63 came in at 1.21 to 1.35 times their estimates; Massachusetts' surtax at 1.37 times the Revenue Department's forecast and 1.69 times the Tufts dynamic estimate; Multnomah County's Preschool for All tax at 1.67 and 1.37; Washington's capital gains tax at 1.48 for tax year 2022 and 0.84 for 2023-24; Washington's 2.9% surcharge at 2.20. Below 1 are the recession-year comparisons: New York 2009 at 0.90, Maryland at 0.77 and 0.56, Oregon Measure 66 at 0.67, plus Metro's housing tax at 0.87 of its original budget.

Hover over the chart or focus a point to inspect its values.

Of 18 comparisons, 12 came in above the estimate and 6 below. All 4 comparisons in 2008-09 recession years (New York, Maryland twice, Oregon) came in below. Of the other 14, 12 came in above; the exceptions are Washington's capital gains tax in tax years 2023-24 (0.84) and Metro's Supportive Housing Services tax in FY2024-25 (0.87 of the original budget, though within 1% of Metro's updated forecast). The highest ratio is Washington's 2.9% capital gains surcharge (2.20); the lowest is Maryland's millionaire bracket in tax year 2009 (0.56).

What this chart asks

When states and localities taxed high incomes, did revenue come in above or below the official estimate?

Why it is shown this way

  • Points on a common ratio scale let taxes of very different sizes (from $61 million to $7 billion) be compared directly.
  • A reference line at 1.0 marks where revenue equaled the estimate.
  • Color shows the economic setting, because the shortfalls cluster in the 2008-09 recession; labels name each comparison so color is not the only cue.
  • The y axis starts at zero so distances from 1.0 are not exaggerated.

Chart annotations

These markers provide relevant context for interpreting the chart. Their timing or position does not, by itself, establish causation.

Revenue equal to estimate
Threshold: 1

Why this is marked: Reference line marking a ratio of 1.0, where actual revenue matched the estimate.

Data and accessibility

Download chart data · Open accessible table · Download PNG · Download SVG

Dataset top-rate-taxes-forecast-vs-actual, analysis ratio-by-comparison

Sources

This chart draws on the sources of the dataset versions it visualizes.

Top-rate and millionaire taxes: official revenue estimates vs. actual collections

  1. California Legislative Analyst's Office Year-by-year Proposition 30 revenue estimates (table 'Proposition 30 Revenue Estimates')

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked, not hosted

    Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan fiscal adviser to the California Legislature; prepares the official ballot-pamphlet fiscal estimates. The handout reproduces the ballot-analysis estimates by year.

  2. California Legislative Analyst's Office Estimated Proposition 30 revenue generated, FY2011-12 to FY2013-14

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. LAO's November 2014 estimate of what Proposition 30 raised; LAO says the amounts remain subject to change.

  3. California Legislative Analyst's Office 2016-17 budget assumption for Proposition 30 income-tax revenue

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Official ballot analysis of Proposition 55 (2016). The $7 billion figure is the state budget's assumption, not a final tabulation.

  4. California Legislative Analyst's Office Pre-enactment Proposition 63 revenue estimate

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. Official ballot-pamphlet fiscal analysis for the November 2004 election.

  5. California Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission Mental Health Services Act revenue by fiscal year Free copy

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. State commission overseeing Proposition 63 spending; figures drawn from Governor's Budget fund condition statements, cash basis. The live site blocks automated access, so we read the archived copy.

  6. Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation FY2024 surtax projections presented at the consensus revenue hearing (DOR range $1,445M-$1,766M) and the $1 billion budget cap

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Publication of a private nonprofit. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Business-backed fiscal research group; it opposed the surtax campaign but here reports the official hearing projections in a table. The bulletin is dated January 30, 2023.

  7. Massachusetts Department of Revenue Preliminary certified FY2024 surtax revenue ($2.199 billion)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Massachusetts state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. Official DOR press release of August 9, 2024, reporting the July 24, 2024 preliminary certification; later certifications may revise it.

  8. Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis Static ($2.1B) and dynamic ($1.3B) estimates of 2023 surtax revenue

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. University publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Academic. Nonpartisan university policy center, January 2022. Its dynamic estimate cut revenue about 35% for avoidance (central income elasticity of 1) and migration.

  9. New York State Division of the Budget Original ($4.0B) and revised ($3.6B) forecast of the 2009 high-income surcharge

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. New York state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. Governor's budget office press release of October 30, 2009 on the mid-year financial plan update.

  10. Maryland Department of Legislative Services Pre-enactment estimate for the 6.25% bracket ($102.1M TY2008, $109.3M TY2009)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Maryland state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative fiscal note on SB 46 (2008), revised April 4, 2008.

  11. Maryland Department of Legislative Services Comptroller's figures for revenue raised by the 6.25% rate, TY2008-10

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Maryland state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. 2012 fiscal note quoting the Comptroller's Office on what the expired bracket raised.

  12. Oregon Legislative Revenue Office Pre-vote revenue estimate for Measure 66 (Table 2: $504M from rates and phase-out; $472M net)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Oregon state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative revenue office research report RR 6-09, November 19, 2009.

  13. Oregon Business Report of the December 2010 LRO revised projection (about two-thirds of $504M) and first-year preliminary collections ($130M vs $180M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. News article (archived copy). Facts quoted; archived page linked

    Reliability: News report. Business magazine item of December 16, 2010, summarizing a Statesman Journal report on an LRO presentation; the LRO document itself was not found. The original page is offline, so we link the Internet Archive copy.

  14. Multnomah County FY2022 Preschool for All forecast ($112M) and collections ($187M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. County government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. County news release of February 14, 2023. The county administers the tax with the City of Portland.

  15. Willamette Week FY2025 Preschool for All forecast ($163M) and collections ($224M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. News article. Facts quoted; page linked

    Reliability: News report. Portland weekly reporting figures from the county's annual financial report, November 21, 2025; we did not read the county report itself.

  16. Metro (Portland regional government) FY2024-25 original budget ($374.5M), Fall 2024 forecast ($323.1M) and actual collections ($325.0M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Regional government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Metro administers and spends the tax; this is its own year-end revenue report.

  17. Washington Office of Financial Management (DOR fiscal note) Capital gains tax revenue estimate as passed (gross tax lines: $527M FY2023; $1,162M 2023-25)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Multi-agency fiscal note for SSB 5096 (2021), revised June 22, 2021. Gross tax = Education Legacy Trust plus Common School Construction lines; the note's $442M state total also nets out a B&O tax credit.

  18. Washington Department of Revenue Capital gains tax net payments by tax year, as of June 9, 2026

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. DOR administers the tax; net payments are payments minus refunds as of the stated date and may change.

  19. Washington Office of Financial Management (DOR fiscal note) Revenue estimate for the 2.9% capital gains surcharge ($151M FY2026)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Fiscal note for ESSB 5813 (2025), dated May 5, 2025; assumes about 900 taxpayers and ERFC growth, with no behavioral adjustment stated.

  20. Washington Research Council ERFC estimate that the 2.9% rate accounts for $331.9M of FY2026 capital gains revenue

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Publication of a private nonprofit. Facts quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Business-supported fiscal research nonprofit that generally opposes new taxes; here it reports a figure attributed to the state's Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

  21. Joshua Rauh and Ryan Shyu, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16(1), 2024 Behavioral erosion of California Proposition 30 windfall revenue (45.2% year 1, 60.9% within two years) Free copy

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Working paper; abstract quoted. Facts quoted; paper linked

    Reliability: Peer-reviewed study. Peer-reviewed study using California tax-return data; Rauh is a Hoover Institution fellow. Erosion is measured against the authors' no-response counterfactual.

  22. Conway, Iselin and Rork, 'Mult-No-More?' (working paper, April 2026) Migration revenue loss from the Preschool for All tax (about 8.5% of static 2022 revenue)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Working paper hosted by OPB. Facts quoted; paper linked

    Reliability: Academic. Economists at UNH, the Yale Budget Lab and Reed College; not yet peer reviewed. The authors call their estimate likely an upper bound.

  23. Cristobal Young and Charles Varner, National Tax Journal 64(2), 2011 New Jersey 2004 tax: static yield ($1.08B, 2006) and migration revenue loss ($16.4M/yr)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Journal article; copy posted by the Vermont Legislature. Facts quoted; copy linked

    Reliability: Peer-reviewed study. Peer-reviewed study of New Jersey tax-return data; measures migration only, not reported-income responses.

  24. Washington Office of Financial Management (DOR fiscal note) Behavioral assumption in the ESSB 6346 income-tax revenue estimate

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Multi-agency fiscal note for ESSB 6346 (2026) as passed; states that affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income and applies a 4.71% AGI cut for reduced IRS enforcement.

Limitations

  • Each point is one estimate compared with one outcome; the chart does not show why revenue differed, and it cannot separate behavioral responses from market swings.
  • Several outcomes are later official estimates or preliminary certifications rather than final collections (see the dataset).
  • Two comparisons rely on secondary reporting (Oregon Measure 66; Multnomah FY25).
  • Comparisons are listed by tax, not in time order; the taxes span 2004 to 2025.

Articles and datasets using this chart

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this chart each cites.

  • Article wa-millionaires-tax-static-estimate — version 3 (published) cites version 1
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 6 (published) cites version 1
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 4 (published) cites version 1