FactHub saved analysis

Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises

What happened by each promise's deadline?

Coverage: 2005-2026

Node: dataset:seattle-homelessness-promises:1:analysis:promise-outcomes

Contained in Seattle and King County homelessness promises and outcomes, 2005-2026.

What this dataset measures

Every major dated, measurable homelessness pledge by Seattle or King County officials since 2005 for which the exact wording could be found in a primary source. Promises found only in news coverage are excluded.

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

  • build_promises.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 31.4 KB (32,202 bytes)

    Node.js script that builds this dataset's table, statements, forecasts and saved analysis.

  • promises-quotes.md Documentation · text/markdown · 38.2 KB (39,120 bytes)

    Research notes with each quote, its page or location in the primary source, context, and verification status.

Saved analyses

Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises

Question: What happened by each promise's deadline?

Result: Housing units for homeless people secured: 5,700 units (Reported in 2015); People counted homeless in King County: 10,122 people (January 2015 Point-in-Time count); Units newly announced in 2022: 288 units (2022); Units identified (planned, funded or under construction): 2,065 units (2022); People housed in Health Through Housing: 565 units (Dec. 14, 2022); Unsheltered families moved into shelter or housing: 738 families (Oct. 1, 2016 to Aug. 31, 2017)

Operation: Outcome figures transcribed from official reports and independent counts

Scope: Promises with a numeric target and a published outcome

View this analysis

  • Several outcomes use the closest available measure rather than the promise's exact wording; see each note.
  • Two outcomes (Harrell original pledge; veterans) rely on news reporting.

Forecast vs. actual

Each forecast beside the value later observed by a saved analysis. FactHub computes the error as the actual value minus the forecast; for a range, it is zero inside the range and otherwise measured from the nearest bound.

Forecast Forecast value Actual Error Percent error Source
Housing units secured for homeless people, 2014
Committee to End Homelessness in King County,
9500 units 5700 units
Reported in 2015
Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises
-3800 units -40.0% Committee to End Homelessness in King County, A Roof Over Every Bed in King County: Our Community's Ten-Year Plan to End Homelessness (2005)
The outcome is "units secured" as reported in 2015, a year after the deadline.
People counted homeless in King County (homelessness ended), 2014
Committee to End Homelessness in King County,
0 people 10122 people
January 2015 Point-in-Time count
Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises
+10122 people — Committee to End Homelessness in King County, A Roof Over Every Bed in King County: Our Community's Ten-Year Plan to End Homelessness (2005)
The plan did not define "ended" numerically; zero is used as the literal target. The 2015 count covered a larger area than earlier counts.
Housing units secured or moved into (as originally pledged), End of 2022
Bruce Harrell for Seattle (campaign),
2000 units 288 units
2022
Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises
-1712 units -85.60% Bruce Harrell for Seattle, "Bruce Harrell Unveils Homelessness Plans..." (campaign release, about Sept. 2, 2021)
Scored against units newly announced in 2022, the closest available measure of the original pledge to move people into or secure units.
Housing and shelter units identified (as restated), End of 2022
Bruce Harrell,
2000 units 2065 units
2022
Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises
+65 units +3.25% Office of the Mayor, "Mayor Harrell Releases One Seattle Homelessness Action Plan..." (May 31, 2022)
"Identified" counts units planned, funded or under construction, including projects begun before Harrell took office; it is not the same as units opened.
Health Through Housing units ready to serve, End of 2022
Dow Constantine,
1600 units 565 units
Dec. 14, 2022
Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises
-1035 units -64.69% King County Executive news release on Health Through Housing purchases (July 29, 2021)
Purchased units (1,011) were not all open; 565 people housed is used as the measure of units in use. At the end of 2025, 1,054 of 1,423 secured units were open.
Unsheltered families moved indoors, End of 2017
City of Seattle,
500 families 738 families
Oct. 1, 2016 to Aug. 31, 2017
Measured outcomes for Seattle and King County homelessness promises
+238 families +47.60% City of Seattle, Pathways Home fact sheet (Sept. 2016)
The outcome period ends four months before the deadline. "Indoors" includes emergency shelter.

Sources

  1. Committee to End Homelessness in King County, A Roof Over Every Bed in King County: Our Community's Ten-Year Plan to End Homelessness (2005) Primary source for the 2005 plan's goals. The original site (cehkc.org) is offline, so the URL is the Internet Archive copy and the archive link is its raw-file form.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  2. All Home, Strategic Plan 2015-2019 Primary source for the 2015 veteran goal and for the Ten-Year Plan's results (units secured). The original site is offline; the URL is the Internet Archive copy.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  3. King County Executive, "Campaign to help every homeless veteran in King County find a home by the end of 2015" (Aug. 11, 2015) Primary source for Executive Constantine's veteran pledge.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  4. KUOW, "King County won't meet goal to end veteran homelessness" (Dec. 28, 2015) News report that the 2015 veteran goal was not met (secondary).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

  5. Bruce Harrell for Seattle, "Bruce Harrell Unveils Homelessness Plans..." (campaign release, about Sept. 2, 2021) Primary source for the 2,000-unit campaign pledge.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  6. Office of the Mayor, "Mayor Harrell Releases One Seattle Homelessness Action Plan..." (May 31, 2022) Primary source for Mayor Harrell's restated goal of "identifying" 2,000 units.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  7. Office of the Mayor, "One Seattle Homelessness Action Plan Posts Q4 Data Updates" (Jan. 27, 2023) Official outcome: 2,065 units identified in 2022.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  8. PubliCola, "Harrell Promised 2,000 Units of Housing or Shelter By the End of His First Year. He Didn't Deliver." (Jan. 4, 2023) Independent count of units newly announced in 2022 (secondary).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

  9. Partnership for Zero launch website (KCRHA), Feb. 17, 2022 Primary source for the Partnership for Zero timeline.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  10. KCRHA, Partnership for Zero resource page Official outcome: 231 people housed; pilot wound down in September 2023.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  11. King County Executive, 2021 State of the County address (May 11, 2021) Primary source for Executive Constantine's Health Through Housing pledge.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  12. King County Executive news release on Health Through Housing purchases (July 29, 2021) Primary source for the "up to 1600 by the end of next year" pledge.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  13. King County Executive news release on Salmonberry Lofts (Dec. 14, 2022) Official outcome at the end of 2022: 565 people housed, 1,011 units purchased.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  14. Office of the Mayor, "Mayor Wilson's 2026 State of the City Address" (Feb. 17, 2026) Primary source for Mayor Wilson's 1,000-unit goal for 2026.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  15. Office of the Mayor, "Mayor Wilson delivers action plan to bring people indoors..." (Sept. 14, 2026) Primary source for the revised goal of about 960 shelter beds by the end of 2027.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  16. City of Seattle, Pathways Home fact sheet (Sept. 2016) Primary source for the Pathways Home 2017 goals.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

  17. Catherine Lester, "With changes, Seattle could shelter all of its homeless," Crosscut (opinion), Sept. 13, 2016 Primary source for the first-person 500-families pledge.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  18. Seattle Human Services Department, "One Year Update on Pathways Home" (Sept. 22, 2017) Official outcome: 738 families sheltered by Aug. 31, 2017 (p.3).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Public document. Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy

  19. HUD, 2007-2025 Point-in-Time Counts by CoC King County's 2015 count (10,122), used as the outcome of the end-homelessness goal.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Linked, not rehosted.

    Archived copy captured May 30, 2026

Limitations and reproducibility

Documented: Each quote links to its primary source and an archived copy; quote-notes gives the page or location of each.

  • Outcome measures do not always match the promise's wording (for example, units purchased vs. units open); each forecast's note explains the mismatch.
  • Some outcomes are self-reported by the government that made the promise.
  • Promises made only in news interviews or reported only by the press are excluded, so the list is not exhaustive.
  • Homeless counts changed method in 2015, 2017 and 2022.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article seattle-homelessness-spending-results — version 5 (published) cites version 1
  • Article seattle-homelessness-spending-results — version 4 (published) cites version 1
  • Article seattle-homelessness-spending-results — version 3 (published) cites version 1
  • Article seattle-homelessness-spending-results — version 2 (published) cites version 1