2021 fiscal note estimates compared with collections

What this dataset measures

Washington's capital gains tax is the state's closest existing example of a tax on high earners' investment income. DOR's tax-year totals are the official collection figures, and its decile table is the only official breakdown of how concentrated the payments are. The 2021 fiscal note is the estimate lawmakers voted on.

Geography

Washington

Unit of observation

Tax year (collections); tax year or fiscal year (concentration)

Update cadence

When DOR publishes new collection totals

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

2021 fiscal note estimates compared with collections

Fiscal note package 63363 estimated receipts by account, gross and net, against DOR net payments for the matching tax years.

Unit of observation: Fiscal note period (fiscal year or biennium)

wa_cg_fiscal_note_comparison.csv text/csv · 492 bytes

All 3 rows 11 columns Download the file

All 3 rows

period	taxYears	eltaMillion million US dollars (nominal)	cscMillion million US dollars (nominal)	grossCgEstimateMillion million US dollars (nominal)	boCreditsMillion million US dollars (nominal)	netBillImpactMillion million US dollars (nominal)	actualMillion million US dollars (nominal)	actualToGrossRatio ratio	actualToNetRatio ratio	note
FY2023	2022	500	27	527	-85	442	782	1.48	1.77	—
2023-25 biennium	2023-2024	1028	134	1162	-188	974	978.5	0.84	1	—
2025-27 biennium	2025-2026	1070	188	1258	-205	1053	—	—	—	Tax year 2026 not yet collected; tax year 2025 alone ($1.5B, incl. the 2.9% surcharge, est. ~$151M in FY2026 per pkg 75010) already exceeds the biennium's gross estimate.

11 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
period	string	Fiscal note period.	—	observed
taxYears	string	Tax years whose April payments fall in the period.	—	derived
eltaMillion	number	Estimated receipts to the Education Legacy Trust Account.	million US dollars (nominal)	estimated
cscMillion	number	Estimated receipts to the Common School Construction Account.	million US dollars (nominal)	estimated
grossCgEstimateMillion	number	Estimated gross capital gains tax receipts.	million US dollars (nominal)	derived
boCreditsMillion	number	Estimated B&O tax credits (GF-State and Workforce Education Investment Account), negative.	million US dollars (nominal)	estimated
netBillImpactMillion	number	The bill's net state revenue impact.	million US dollars (nominal)	derived
actualMillion	number	DOR net capital gains tax payments for the matching tax years, as of June 9, 2026.	million US dollars (nominal)	derived
actualToGrossRatio	number	actualMillion / grossCgEstimateMillion.	ratio	derived
actualToNetRatio	number	actualMillion / netBillImpactMillion, for comparison only.	ratio	derived
note	string	Comment.	—	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• build_datasets.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 54.6 KB (55,889 bytes)

  Node.js script holding every typed input value and computing the CSV tables and saved analyses for this dataset. Run: node build_datasets.js.

• dataset-parts-cg.json Documentation · application/json · 23.4 KB (23,957 bytes)

  The dataset's limitations, sources, tables, events, saved analyses and forecasts as JSON, as stored in this version.

Sources

1. Washington Department of Revenue, Capital Gains Tax - Tax Year 2025 Initial Collections Net payments and number of net payments by tax year, 2022-2025, as of June 9, 2026; return and extension counts for tax year 2025.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; the page is linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. The Department of Revenue administers and collects the tax and publishes these totals from its own payment records. Totals change as refunds and late payments post, so each figure is tied to its as-of date.

2. Washington Department of Revenue, Research & Fiscal Analysis, Capital gains tax payments by decile (as of January 6, 2025) Net payments by decile of payment size, and the total of the top 10 payments with DOR's stated share, for tax years 2022 and 2023 and fiscal years 2023 and 2024.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. DOR's research office compiled the table from payment records. Its tax-year totals ($780.4M for 2022, $416.7M for 2023) are earlier counts than DOR's June 2026 figures and differ because of later refunds and payments.

3. OFM Fiscal Note Package 63363, SSB 5096 (2021), capital gains tax, as passed The Department of Revenue's pre-enactment estimate by account: Education Legacy Trust $500M and school construction $27M in FY2023 ($527M gross), $1,028M and $134M in 2023-25, $1,070M and $188M in 2025-27, less B&O tax credits (net bill totals $442M, $974M, $1,053M); assumptions on taxpayers (about 7,000) and compliance.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Official fiscal note prepared by DOR for the Legislature before the vote. It grows 2018 capital gains with CBO realization forecasts and assumes no behavioral response other than charitable giving.

4. OFM Fiscal Note Package 75010, ESSB 5813 (2025), 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1 million Estimate for the added 2.9% rate on gains over $1 million from tax year 2025: about $151.0M in FY2026 (Education Legacy Trust Account capital gains portion), about 900 taxpayers.

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Public record of a Washington state agency. Figures restated with attribution; the PDF is linked, not hosted.

   Reliability: Government. Official fiscal note prepared by DOR before the 2025 vote; the surcharge applied retroactively to January 1, 2025.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible: Every value is typed from a DOR or OFM document named in the field's sourceIds. The build script (build_datasets.js, Node.js) holds the inputs and recomputes every derived value and saved analysis.

• DOR revises its totals as refunds and late payments post, so each figure is tied to an as-of date; the decile table (January 2025) and the collection totals (June 2026) are different snapshots.
• Tax year 2025 is an initial count and includes the 2.9% surcharge on gains over $1 million that took effect that year.
• DOR counts payments, not individual taxpayers.
• Fiscal-note estimates are by fiscal year or biennium and collections by tax year, so comparisons are approximate. Comparisons use the note's gross capital gains receipts, not its net bill total, which also subtracts B&O tax credits.