Washington leavers and arrivals by age, 2017-18 to 2022-23

What this dataset measures

Built to check the claim, posted November 2, 2026 by the Yes on Initiative 645 campaign, that households leaving Washington since 2021 have earned more on average than households moving in. Six comparison states (neighbors, the biggest destinations and California) and all-state rankings test whether Washington's pattern is unusual.

Geography

Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Texas, Florida, Arizona, United States (all states, rankings)

Unit of observation

State and filing-year pair

Update cadence

Annual, when IRS publishes a new migration year

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

Washington leavers and arrivals by age, 2017-18 to 2022-23

From the gross migration file (moves abroad included, negative-AGI returns excluded), by age of the primary taxpayer.

Unit of observation: Filing-year pair and age band

fh-wa-age-bands.csv text/csv · 2.1 KB (2,117 bytes)

All 36 rows 8 columns Download the file

All 36 rows

filing_years	age_band	out_returns returns	out_agi_thousands thousands of dollars	in_returns returns	in_agi_thousands thousands of dollars	avg_agi_out dollars	avg_agi_in dollars
2017-18	under 26	18961	584044	25561	843441	30802	32997
2017-18	26-34	32169	1867546	43157	2654304	58054	61503
2017-18	35-44	16945	1585183	19630	1905298	93549	97061
2017-18	45-54	9640	1089563	10675	1241029	113025	116256
2017-18	55-64	8953	1071612	9227	1306135	119693	141556
2017-18	65 and over	10514	944480	10925	926673	89831	84821
2018-19	under 26	18848	627620	24824	886138	33299	35697
2018-19	26-34	32335	2089262	42792	2819589	64613	65891
2018-19	35-44	16223	1667219	19261	1983002	102769	102954
2018-19	45-54	9163	1473328	9926	1241064	160791	125032
2018-19	55-64	8619	1153765	8982	1231613	133863	137120
2018-19	65 and over	10286	1072167	10792	1052375	104236	97514
2019-20	under 26	19811	716147	25128	953555	36149	37948
2019-20	26-34	35344	2355378	43716	3137631	66642	71773
2019-20	35-44	18623	1926362	19150	2112114	103440	110293
2019-20	45-54	10045	1312500	10032	1412138	130662	140763
2019-20	55-64	9162	1393969	8742	1286441	152147	147156
2019-20	65 and over	13144	1374424	13183	1454712	104567	110348
2020-21	under 26	20660	798878	24131	955375	38668	39591
2020-21	26-34	38308	2822953	44895	3509170	73691	78164
2020-21	35-44	22067	2682754	20935	2622252	121573	125257
2020-21	45-54	12267	1882524	10058	1700706	153462	169090
2020-21	55-64	10711	1711162	8887	1492401	159757	167931
2020-21	65 and over	12231	1453358	11750	1172049	118826	99749
2021-22	under 26	22833	974838	27972	1240654	42694	44353
2021-22	26-34	39707	3848635	47178	4143993	96926	87837
2021-22	35-44	22863	3195170	20587	2882688	139753	140025
2021-22	45-54	12936	2454649	9867	1720820	189753	174402
2021-22	55-64	11108	2178937	8833	1718129	196159	194513
2021-22	65 and over	12634	2248493	11383	1421874	177972	124912
2022-23	under 26	26567	1071863	32767	1458625	40346	44515
2022-23	26-34	37191	3219347	43632	3633331	86563	83272
2022-23	35-44	20036	2782578	19349	2321410	138879	119976
2022-23	45-54	10663	1748445	9483	1474167	163973	155454
2022-23	55-64	9366	1623656	7915	1192948	173356	150720
2022-23	65 and over	11776	1454877	11018	1262727	123546	114606

8 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
filing_years	string	IRS filing-year pair.	—	observed
age_band	string	Age of the primary taxpayer: under 26, 26-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65 and over.	—	observed
out_returns	integer	Leaving returns (outflow_n1_k).	returns	observed
out_agi_thousands	integer	Their year-2 AGI (outflow_y2_agi_k).	thousands of dollars	observed
in_returns	integer	Arriving returns (inflow_n1_k).	returns	observed
in_agi_thousands	integer	Their year-2 AGI (inflow_y2_agi_k).	thousands of dollars	observed
avg_agi_out	integer	Leavers' average AGI in this age band.	dollars	derived
avg_agi_in	integer	Arrivals' average AGI in this age band.	dollars	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• fh-analysis-results.json Documentation · application/json · 24.9 KB (25,481 bytes)

  Saved-analysis results written by the build script.

• fh-build-migration-dataset.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8 KB (8,170 bytes)

  Node.js script that reads the IRS files and writes every table and result here.

Sources

1. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income (SOI): U.S. Population Migration Data Index of every migration year. State-to-state files used: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/stateinflowYYYY.csv and stateoutflowYYYY.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2223 (rows for each state's 'Total Migration-US' and for Washington's partner states).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; IRS data are U.S. government works.

   Reliability: Government. Built by IRS from address changes on the full population of individual income tax returns filed in two consecutive years. IRS has no stake in Washington's tax debate.

2. IRS SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2022-2023 Release page for the latest year, linking stateinflow2223.csv, stateoutflow2223.csv and the gross migration file 2223inmigall.csv.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. Official IRS release page. The 2023-24 files were not published as of November 3, 2026 (stateinflow2324.csv returned HTTP 404).

3. IRS SOI gross migration file by AGI class and age, 2022-2023 (2223inmigall.csv), and the same file for earlier years Inflow, outflow and matched returns by AGI class (agi_stub 7 = $200,000 or more) and by age of the primary taxpayer, with year-1 and year-2 AGI. Earlier years at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/YYYYinmigall.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2122.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. Same IRS return-matching as the state-to-state files, but excludes returns with negative AGI and includes moves abroad.

4. IRS, 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide Definitions: AGI is from the year-2 return and in thousands of dollars; 2022-23 matching change; disclosure rules; AGI classes and age groups in the gross file.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. IRS's own documentation of the files.

5. Revised Code of Washington 82.87.040, capital gains tax imposed Date the capital gains tax began: sales on or after January 1, 2022.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. The official statute text published by the Washington Legislature's Code Reviser.

6. Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (session law) Washington's 9.9% tax on taxable income over $1 million: approved March 30, 2026; tax imposed beginning January 1, 2028.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. The enrolled session law as published by the Washington Legislature.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input is a published IRS SOI migration file (stateinflowYYYY.csv, stateoutflowYYYY.csv, YYYYinmigall.csv at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/). The included script fh-build-migration-dataset.js reads those files and writes every table and saved-analysis result in this dataset.

• The latest IRS file is 2022-23: moves between the returns filed in 2022 and 2023, with income from tax year 2022. It cannot show any response to Washington's 2026 income tax, which applies from January 1, 2028.
• Covers only people who filed federal tax returns in both years and could be matched by taxpayer ID. Non-filers are left out.
• AGI comes from the second-year return, filed from the new address, so part of a mover's income may have been earned in the old state.
• Averages are pulled up by a few very high incomes and one-time gains, such as stock or home sales. IRS publishes no medians.
• IRS changed its matching method for 2022-23, adding about 5% more returns. 2014-15 return counts are unusually low in both directions.
• Interstate flows exclude moves abroad. The $200,000-plus counts come from IRS's gross migration file, which includes moves abroad and leaves out returns with negative AGI, so its totals differ slightly from the state-to-state files.
• The $200,000 class is a fixed dollar amount, so more filers cross it as incomes rise. It is far below the $1 million threshold of Washington's 2026 income tax, and IRS migration data have no $1 million class.