Leaver premium in every state, 2020-21 to 2022-23

What this dataset measures

Built to check the claim, posted November 2, 2026 by the Yes on Initiative 645 campaign, that households leaving Washington since 2021 have earned more on average than households moving in. Six comparison states (neighbors, the biggest destinations and California) and all-state rankings test whether Washington's pattern is unusual.

Geography

Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Texas, Florida, Arizona, United States (all states, rankings)

Unit of observation

State and filing-year pair

Update cadence

Annual, when IRS publishes a new migration year

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

Leaver premium in every state, 2020-21 to 2022-23

All 50 states and DC, ranked within each year from the largest leaver premium down.

Unit of observation: State and filing-year pair

fh-all-states-leaver-premium.csv text/csv · 8.5 KB (8,681 bytes)

The first 100 of 153 rows 10 columns Download the full file

The first 100 of 153 rows

filing_years	state	rank rank	avg_agi_in dollars	avg_agi_out dollars	leaver_premium_pct percent	agi_per_person_in dollars	agi_per_person_out dollars	per_person_premium_pct percent	net_agi_thousands thousands of dollars
2020-21	IL	1	74010	118148	59.6	45624	68089	49.2	-10884573
2020-21	CA	2	87072	125362	44	54527	69844	28.1	-29070963
2020-21	NY	3	90337	130054	44	60619	78297	29.2	-24466836
2020-21	OH	4	64769	81764	26.2	37141	47716	28.5	-2072205
2020-21	DC	5	95091	117697	23.8	72899	82300	12.9	-1599797
2020-21	MN	6	70215	86013	22.5	41852	50915	21.7	-1562517
2020-21	NJ	7	102327	122637	19.8	61058	71627	17.3	-3794238
2020-21	MA	8	98945	117214	18.5	66410	75188	13.2	-4275158
2020-21	VA	9	81433	93706	15.1	45699	51591	12.9	-1857934
2020-21	AK	10	60422	67936	12.4	32018	34805	8.7	-226634
2020-21	IA	11	53359	59821	12.1	31115	34669	11.4	-259644
2020-21	PA	12	79243	88167	11.3	47115	52551	11.5	-1858853
2020-21	MI	13	75900	84412	11.2	43511	49945	14.8	-1068754
2020-21	MO	14	63480	69994	10.3	34921	39775	13.9	-219592
2020-21	MD	15	81613	89969	10.2	48416	52654	8.8	-1856911
2020-21	KY	16	57746	63464	9.9	31146	34891	12	-122451
2020-21	IN	17	61674	67162	8.9	33684	38298	13.7	-167170
2020-21	ND	18	54149	58924	8.8	30411	32410	6.6	-248535
2020-21	GA	19	69424	73527	5.9	37056	40295	8.7	1267644
2020-21	NE	20	61661	64564	4.7	33869	35581	5.1	-206495
2020-21	LA	21	57593	58585	1.7	31534	31135	-1.3	-861755
2020-21	KS	22	65494	66603	1.7	35076	36229	3.3	-234270
2020-21	WA	23	92638	94058	1.5	55134	50675	-8.1	177669
2020-21	OR	24	74227	75104	1.2	46204	43531	-5.8	-121550
2020-21	WV	25	56255	56542	0.5	31311	32242	3	32629
2020-21	OK	26	55849	56120	0.5	28390	29772	4.9	505137
2020-21	WI	27	75319	75182	-0.2	44551	44934	0.9	-61455
2020-21	CT	28	135759	133409	-1.7	80367	80200	-0.2	57416
2020-21	DE	29	89144	87065	-2.3	50766	50873	0.2	537052
2020-21	AL	30	66091	62197	-5.9	33823	33644	-0.5	738143
2020-21	NM	31	66762	62795	-5.9	37821	33938	-10.3	95132
2020-21	AR	32	59902	55280	-7.7	30700	29688	-3.3	537621
2020-21	MS	33	54549	49767	-8.8	28501	26550	-6.8	49283
2020-21	RI	34	90530	79589	-12.1	57464	48630	-15.4	189471
2020-21	NC	35	79123	68700	-13.2	43110	37722	-12.5	4543641
2020-21	CO	36	91221	77235	-15.3	55895	44048	-21.2	2123323
2020-21	AZ	37	89898	75140	-16.4	50739	42235	-16.8	4439302
2020-21	ME	38	93153	77351	-17	56540	47272	-16.4	922591
2020-21	TX	39	88798	73200	-17.6	46227	39532	-14.5	10901303
2020-21	HI	40	86725	70881	-18.3	45830	35184	-23.2	103547
2020-21	SD	41	76414	59837	-21.7	41731	33528	-19.7	450854
2020-21	VT	42	92349	71043	-23.1	57993	46460	-19.9	365548
2020-21	TN	43	82581	63031	-23.7	43994	34713	-21.1	4145718
2020-21	UT	44	95022	69853	-26.5	48037	34942	-27.3	1639756
2020-21	SC	45	87516	64194	-26.6	46192	36127	-21.8	4193460
2020-21	MT	46	90507	63694	-29.6	50240	36990	-26.4	1111271
2020-21	NH	47	117102	82068	-29.9	71799	51187	-28.7	1464718
2020-21	ID	48	90354	58854	-34.9	44424	30651	-31	2153211
2020-21	WY	49	101287	65961	-34.9	54902	35962	-34.5	548300
2020-21	NV	50	120454	68628	-43	69503	38824	-44.1	4617504
2020-21	FL	51	149201	72067	-51.7	82811	42236	-49	39187045
2021-22	IL	1	86086	124008	44.1	54371	73752	35.6	-9839091
2021-22	MN	2	76790	103054	34.2	46539	62587	34.5	-2192376
2021-22	DC	3	100872	129184	28.1	79718	90349	13.3	-1135942
2021-22	ND	4	56478	68274	20.9	32413	38736	19.5	-251967
2021-22	NJ	5	112796	135293	19.9	68509	80990	18.2	-5274269
2021-22	OH	6	77890	92854	19.2	45145	56309	24.7	-2140838
2021-22	CA	7	111689	130946	17.2	71799	74274	3.4	-23791963
2021-22	WA	8	103160	119403	15.7	63631	65709	3.3	-1658538
2021-22	VA	9	86739	100284	15.6	49566	57177	15.4	-2166874
2021-22	AK	10	65983	76262	15.6	35534	39610	11.5	-312922
2021-22	MD	11	88530	101821	15	53434	61234	14.6	-2718149
2021-22	MO	12	73102	83352	14	40824	48548	18.9	-581865
2021-22	NE	13	65432	74260	13.5	36708	42231	15	-298777
2021-22	PA	14	86189	97046	12.6	51964	59174	13.9	-2750702
2021-22	KS	15	68128	76077	11.7	37089	42547	14.7	-607715
2021-22	GA	16	74911	83344	11.3	41016	47039	14.7	705166
2021-22	IN	17	69612	77126	10.8	38635	45345	17.4	-550632
2021-22	OR	18	84749	92722	9.4	53881	55284	2.6	-533482
2021-22	IA	19	63607	68954	8.4	36316	41383	14	-516858
2021-22	MA	20	119730	126937	6	82499	83329	1	-3865070
2021-22	WV	21	60873	64452	5.9	34320	37600	9.6	-43589
2021-22	KY	22	65580	68861	5	35824	38982	8.8	39181
2021-22	MI	23	86823	91152	5	50150	55438	10.5	-1366289
2021-22	WI	24	81184	85203	5	48744	52557	7.8	-310358
2021-22	NM	25	75205	78782	4.8	42968	44073	2.6	-131934
2021-22	OK	26	62366	64011	2.6	31938	34498	8	481945
2021-22	NY	27	124391	126665	1.8	87208	76152	-12.7	-14157977
2021-22	CT	28	139194	141227	1.5	83161	89210	7.3	-1024031
2021-22	RI	29	94789	94543	-0.3	60984	59210	-2.9	-130671
2021-22	LA	30	65755	64349	-2.1	36123	35337	-2.2	-882363
2021-22	AR	31	65722	63859	-2.8	34250	34835	1.7	467529
2021-22	AL	32	71549	67572	-5.6	37108	37561	1.2	793952
2021-22	CO	33	98744	92116	-6.7	62455	53861	-13.8	1471071
2021-22	TX	34	96508	89727	-7	51490	49586	-3.7	10138261
2021-22	NC	35	87068	80845	-7.1	48467	45826	-5.4	4609921
2021-22	DE	36	95623	87797	-8.2	55190	52086	-5.6	613240
2021-22	MS	37	61361	54400	-11.3	32351	29925	-7.5	125348
2021-22	ME	38	99204	87337	-12	61364	55449	-9.6	702125
2021-22	AZ	39	97495	83321	-14.5	56539	47992	-15.1	3688080
2021-22	NH	40	119367	101249	-15.2	74969	64317	-14.2	887466
2021-22	UT	41	104817	84483	-19.4	56575	43595	-22.9	1088266
2021-22	VT	42	99747	79202	-20.6	63058	52195	-17.2	269572
2021-22	TN	43	93996	74230	-21	51434	41669	-19	4650081
2021-22	SD	44	87745	67186	-23.4	48745	38223	-21.6	583293
2021-22	HI	45	100915	76955	-23.7	54495	39549	-27.4	348037
2021-22	SC	46	96350	73159	-24.1	51697	42258	-18.3	4758069
2021-22	NV	47	117271	87753	-25.2	69448	50110	-27.8	3086260
2021-22	MT	48	102673	74014	-27.9	58615	43444	-25.9	1058951
2021-22	ID	49	97345	68625	-29.5	49357	36887	-25.3	1693648

10 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
filing_years	string	IRS filing-year pair.	—	observed
state	string	Postal code.	—	observed
rank	integer	1 = leavers out-earned arrivals by the most.	rank	derived
avg_agi_in	integer	Average AGI per arriving return.	dollars	derived
avg_agi_out	integer	Average AGI per leaving return.	dollars	derived
leaver_premium_pct	number	Leavers' average over arrivals', percent.	percent	derived
agi_per_person_in	integer	Arrivals' AGI per person.	dollars	derived
agi_per_person_out	integer	Leavers' AGI per person.	dollars	derived
per_person_premium_pct	number	Leaver premium per person.	percent	derived
net_agi_thousands	integer	Arrivals' AGI minus leavers' AGI.	thousands of dollars	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• fh-analysis-results.json Documentation · application/json · 24.9 KB (25,481 bytes)

  Saved-analysis results written by the build script.

• fh-build-migration-dataset.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8 KB (8,170 bytes)

  Node.js script that reads the IRS files and writes every table and result here.

Sources

1. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income (SOI): U.S. Population Migration Data Index of every migration year. State-to-state files used: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/stateinflowYYYY.csv and stateoutflowYYYY.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2223 (rows for each state's 'Total Migration-US' and for Washington's partner states).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; IRS data are U.S. government works.

   Reliability: Government. Built by IRS from address changes on the full population of individual income tax returns filed in two consecutive years. IRS has no stake in Washington's tax debate.

2. IRS SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2022-2023 Release page for the latest year, linking stateinflow2223.csv, stateoutflow2223.csv and the gross migration file 2223inmigall.csv.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. Official IRS release page. The 2023-24 files were not published as of November 3, 2026 (stateinflow2324.csv returned HTTP 404).

3. IRS SOI gross migration file by AGI class and age, 2022-2023 (2223inmigall.csv), and the same file for earlier years Inflow, outflow and matched returns by AGI class (agi_stub 7 = $200,000 or more) and by age of the primary taxpayer, with year-1 and year-2 AGI. Earlier years at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/YYYYinmigall.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2122.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. Same IRS return-matching as the state-to-state files, but excludes returns with negative AGI and includes moves abroad.

4. IRS, 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide Definitions: AGI is from the year-2 return and in thousands of dollars; 2022-23 matching change; disclosure rules; AGI classes and age groups in the gross file.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. IRS's own documentation of the files.

5. Revised Code of Washington 82.87.040, capital gains tax imposed Date the capital gains tax began: sales on or after January 1, 2022.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. The official statute text published by the Washington Legislature's Code Reviser.

6. Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (session law) Washington's 9.9% tax on taxable income over $1 million: approved March 30, 2026; tax imposed beginning January 1, 2028.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. The enrolled session law as published by the Washington Legislature.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input is a published IRS SOI migration file (stateinflowYYYY.csv, stateoutflowYYYY.csv, YYYYinmigall.csv at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/). The included script fh-build-migration-dataset.js reads those files and writes every table and saved-analysis result in this dataset.

• The latest IRS file is 2022-23: moves between the returns filed in 2022 and 2023, with income from tax year 2022. It cannot show any response to Washington's 2026 income tax, which applies from January 1, 2028.
• Covers only people who filed federal tax returns in both years and could be matched by taxpayer ID. Non-filers are left out.
• AGI comes from the second-year return, filed from the new address, so part of a mover's income may have been earned in the old state.
• Averages are pulled up by a few very high incomes and one-time gains, such as stock or home sales. IRS publishes no medians.
• IRS changed its matching method for 2022-23, adding about 5% more returns. 2014-15 return counts are unusually low in both directions.
• Interstate flows exclude moves abroad. The $200,000-plus counts come from IRS's gross migration file, which includes moves abroad and leaves out returns with negative AGI, so its totals differ slightly from the state-to-state files.
• The $200,000 class is a fixed dollar amount, so more filers cross it as incomes rise. It is far below the $1 million threshold of Washington's 2026 income tax, and IRS migration data have no $1 million class.