Movers in and out, by state and filing-year pair

What this dataset measures

Built to check the claim, posted November 2, 2026 by the Yes on Initiative 645 campaign, that households leaving Washington since 2021 have earned more on average than households moving in. Six comparison states (neighbors, the biggest destinations and California) and all-state rankings test whether Washington's pattern is unusual.

Geography

Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Texas, Florida, Arizona, United States (all states, rankings)

Unit of observation

State and filing-year pair

Update cadence

Annual, when IRS publishes a new migration year

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

Movers in and out, by state and filing-year pair

One row per state and filing-year pair. Interstate moves only (IRS 'Total Migration-US' rows), except the hi_ columns, which come from the gross migration file.

Unit of observation: State and filing-year pair

fh-state-year-migration.csv text/csv · 11.7 KB (11,953 bytes)

All 84 rows 22 columns Download the file

All 84 rows

state	filing_years	in_returns returns	in_individuals people	in_agi_thousands thousands of dollars	out_returns returns	out_individuals people	out_agi_thousands thousands of dollars	avg_agi_in dollars	avg_agi_out dollars	leaver_premium_pct percent	agi_per_person_in dollars	agi_per_person_out dollars	per_person_premium_pct percent	net_returns returns	net_agi_thousands thousands of dollars	hi_out_returns returns	hi_in_returns returns	hi_net_returns returns	hi_matched_returns returns	hi_net_pct_of_matched percent	hi_net_agi_thousands thousands of dollars
WA	2011-12	94459	180278	5190092	87401	168494	4583357	54945	52441	-4.6	28789	27202	-5.5	7058	606735	2662	2999	337	108181	0.31	252960
OR	2011-12	53736	96276	2548313	48458	89160	2309498	47423	47660	0.5	26469	25903	-2.1	5278	238815	1143	1329	186	43891	0.42	-64419
CA	2011-12	253909	455202	14825586	252373	468496	14519801	58389	57533	-1.5	32569	30992	-4.8	1536	305785	10567	10128	-439	690529	-0.06	11083
ID	2011-12	23811	50051	1068464	23425	49394	1068395	44873	45609	1.6	21348	21630	1.3	386	69	338	529	191	11968	1.6	-71421
TX	2011-12	263008	513154	13535657	199440	395283	10708941	51465	53695	4.3	26377	27092	2.7	63568	2826716	6997	8185	1188	362873	0.33	527882
FL	2011-12	308884	541089	20292740	302232	497242	12836682	65697	42473	-35.4	37504	25816	-31.2	6652	7456058	6090	11784	5694	232644	2.45	5926560
AZ	2011-12	98730	190316	5258696	88221	169664	4283129	53263	48550	-8.8	27631	25245	-8.6	10509	975567	2079	3014	935	68063	1.37	453913
WA	2012-13	100271	192994	6592799	89720	175274	5233268	65750	58329	-11.3	34161	29858	-12.6	10551	1359531	3344	3811	467	125863	0.37	834100
OR	2012-13	57310	103830	3033763	49891	92223	2530722	52936	50725	-4.2	29219	27441	-6.1	7419	503041	1410	1702	292	50404	0.58	98853
CA	2012-13	257360	463373	16343621	266937	505991	19642988	63505	73587	15.9	35271	38821	10.1	-9577	-3299367	13594	12301	-1293	771756	-0.17	-3239718
ID	2012-13	25903	55279	1563560	23185	48541	989132	60362	42663	-29.3	28285	20377	-28	2718	574428	397	709	312	13993	2.23	358281
TX	2012-13	281543	572347	18628177	211036	424181	12709982	66165	60227	-9	32547	29964	-7.9	70507	5918195	8570	10839	2269	415285	0.55	2943649
FL	2012-13	306663	567274	24819946	278657	496391	16588109	80936	59529	-26.4	43753	33417	-23.6	28006	8231837	7887	15002	7115	266262	2.67	6165945
AZ	2012-13	101534	196281	6252871	91904	179924	4745087	61584	51631	-16.2	31857	26373	-17.2	9630	1507784	2614	3673	1059	76531	1.38	914683
WA	2013-14	97899	186541	5656979	81461	159918	4716423	57784	57898	0.2	30326	29493	-2.7	16438	940556	3136	3821	685	135850	0.5	469483
OR	2013-14	57003	102680	3029966	45753	83598	2337112	53155	51081	-3.9	29509	27957	-5.3	11250	692854	1324	1845	521	53672	0.97	170521
CA	2013-14	242308	432409	16044853	256157	487994	16826472	66217	65688	-0.8	37106	34481	-7.1	-13849	-781619	13296	11763	-1533	834774	-0.18	-3758457
ID	2013-14	24650	52420	1260791	22253	46348	995340	51148	44728	-12.6	24052	21475	-10.7	2397	265451	428	719	291	15239	1.91	101744
TX	2013-14	300838	623993	16493835	194622	394577	11565710	54826	59427	8.4	26433	29312	10.9	106216	4928125	8173	11153	2980	445608	0.67	1207010
FL	2013-14	286271	536424	22174509	231747	419830	11497299	77460	49611	-36	41338	27386	-33.8	54524	10677210	6590	15105	8515	284211	3	7427592
AZ	2013-14	95701	185863	5655637	83740	163846	4509845	59097	53855	-8.9	30429	27525	-9.5	11961	1145792	2454	3679	1225	80946	1.51	596405
WA	2014-15	75531	136438	4436196	58997	108382	3393957	58733	57528	-2.1	32514	31315	-3.7	16534	1042239	2559	3266	707	156959	0.45	400396
OR	2014-15	43856	75210	2238027	34274	60511	1785303	51031	52089	2.1	29757	29504	-0.9	9582	452724	1131	1565	434	61139	0.71	98242
CA	2014-15	190669	322677	12547137	200440	365561	14560580	65806	72643	10.4	38885	39831	2.4	-9771	-2013443	11352	9961	-1391	935747	-0.15	-1706480
ID	2014-15	17848	35607	930290	16680	32534	893142	52123	53546	2.7	26127	27453	5.1	1168	37148	372	543	171	17268	0.99	-54086
TX	2014-15	215858	425288	13146406	187832	365952	9700075	60903	51642	-15.2	30912	26506	-14.3	28026	3446331	7019	9159	2140	497976	0.43	1856325
FL	2014-15	229625	411266	20650919	169965	296648	9093486	89933	53502	-40.5	50213	30654	-39	59660	11557433	5173	14202	9029	320697	2.82	8476665
AZ	2014-15	71861	133049	4481270	61486	115712	3272884	62360	53230	-14.6	33681	28285	-16	10375	1208386	2077	3008	931	88791	1.05	721560
WA	2015-16	111709	209360	7563036	81229	155821	5298976	67703	65235	-3.6	36125	34007	-5.9	30480	2264060	4209	5858	1649	175237	0.94	812012
OR	2015-16	68276	120059	4081150	46547	84102	2591773	59774	55681	-6.8	33993	30817	-9.3	21729	1489377	1720	2974	1254	70149	1.79	482161
CA	2015-16	250076	432443	18794372	275989	521161	20800487	75155	75367	0.3	43461	39912	-8.2	-25913	-2006115	18422	16140	-2282	1036523	-0.22	-1118517
ID	2015-16	28217	59527	1727761	21580	43987	1040141	61231	48199	-21.3	29025	23647	-18.5	6637	687620	490	1095	605	18925	3.2	294749
TX	2015-16	246864	508723	16945145	227450	453503	14604232	68642	64209	-6.5	33309	32203	-3.3	19414	2340913	10861	13822	2961	522339	0.57	609890
FL	2015-16	307022	570106	28965086	211950	378986	11750614	94342	55441	-41.2	50806	31005	-39	95072	17214472	7336	19236	11900	348781	3.41	12459093
AZ	2015-16	104431	200092	6743397	80220	153661	4751827	64573	59235	-8.3	33701	30924	-8.2	24211	1991570	2974	5056	2082	98690	2.11	812438
WA	2016-17	153851	289578	11001326	117949	230986	8169794	71506	69265	-3.1	37991	35369	-6.9	35902	2831532	6074	8474	2400	192884	1.24	902776
OR	2016-17	89622	158039	5713274	68132	123633	4163121	63749	61104	-4.1	36151	33673	-6.9	21490	1550153	2693	4138	1445	76243	1.9	487909
CA	2016-17	322066	560173	24199153	387080	738242	31074294	75137	80279	6.8	43199	42092	-2.6	-65014	-6875141	26780	20172	-6608	1095540	-0.6	-3332190
ID	2016-17	41842	91124	2703934	28536	59145	1389581	64622	48696	-24.6	29673	23494	-20.8	13306	1314353	660	1718	1058	20423	5.18	431102
TX	2016-17	315539	658830	22032155	276115	560601	18871090	69824	68345	-2.1	33441	33662	0.7	39424	3161065	13818	17359	3541	505021	0.7	1015913
FL	2016-17	390012	736023	32958576	299072	545179	17423207	84507	58258	-31.1	44779	31959	-28.6	90940	15535369	10641	24563	13922	343454	4.05	9745188
AZ	2016-17	146729	282095	10238659	107568	206556	6465785	69779	60109	-13.9	36295	31303	-13.8	39161	3772874	3944	7308	3364	104919	3.21	1651817
WA	2017-18	118368	210303	8711340	96731	181140	7002146	73595	72388	-1.6	41423	38656	-6.7	21637	1709194	5302	6644	1342	223726	0.6	682394
OR	2017-18	67796	115007	4346083	55369	96448	3575843	64105	64582	0.7	37790	37075	-1.9	12427	770240	2308	3086	778	85090	0.91	207574
CA	2017-18	256021	429856	19476281	317449	583053	27460020	76073	86502	13.7	45309	47097	3.9	-61428	-7983739	23504	15483	-8021	1217121	-0.66	-4480207
ID	2017-18	33265	69035	2274642	23524	46475	1165236	68379	49534	-27.6	32949	25072	-23.9	9741	1109406	549	1599	1050	24479	4.29	431169
TX	2017-18	252595	505072	18063786	217682	427600	14683762	71513	67455	-5.7	35765	34340	-4	34913	3380024	10462	13380	2918	556295	0.52	1444875
FL	2017-18	307196	562647	31755493	251255	447669	15759157	103372	62722	-39.3	56439	35203	-37.6	55941	15996336	9531	22449	12918	385340	3.35	12398736
AZ	2017-18	119298	222674	8794949	84705	157267	5278009	73723	62310	-15.5	39497	33561	-15	34593	3516940	3260	6360	3100	119485	2.59	1595842
WA	2018-19	115674	202602	9019079	94932	173941	7939369	77970	83632	7.3	44516	45644	2.5	20742	1079710	6180	7195	1015	263088	0.39	8423
OR	2018-19	65578	109240	4630143	55209	94075	3850028	70605	69736	-1.2	42385	40925	-3.4	10369	780115	2615	3288	673	96245	0.7	275548
CA	2018-19	248103	406971	20852970	319650	576453	29662258	84050	92796	10.4	51239	51457	0.4	-71547	-8809288	25929	16766	-9163	1351081	-0.68	-4825202
ID	2018-19	33506	67796	2532736	23318	44794	1302750	75591	55869	-26.1	37358	29083	-22.2	10188	1229986	702	1731	1029	28556	3.6	520322
TX	2018-19	256355	504949	19277889	204996	393747	15371862	75200	74986	-0.3	38178	39040	2.3	51359	3906027	11255	14754	3499	639270	0.55	1192569
FL	2018-19	305383	552778	33647246	243510	428064	16159462	110180	66361	-39.8	60869	37750	-38	61873	17487784	10585	24856	14271	463015	3.08	13412784
AZ	2018-19	119462	218713	9313123	83808	152382	5634119	77959	67227	-13.8	42581	36974	-13.2	35654	3679004	3744	7318	3574	136524	2.62	1823689
WA	2019-20	119286	209473	10171697	105849	201318	8947449	85272	84530	-0.9	48559	44444	-8.5	13437	1224248	7799	8702	903	288595	0.31	588122
OR	2019-20	69339	116294	4984411	59824	104649	4384392	71885	73288	2	42860	41896	-2.2	9515	600019	3036	4062	1026	101907	1.01	174278
CA	2019-20	248447	412714	20637616	365922	676058	38452732	83066	105085	26.5	50005	56878	13.7	-117475	-17815116	36751	17522	-19229	1422721	-1.35	-11324218
ID	2019-20	40273	87032	3409968	24973	50377	1355955	84671	54297	-35.9	39181	26916	-31.3	15300	2054013	744	2799	2055	31745	6.47	1017127
TX	2019-20	280783	561736	22789787	218116	428286	16442822	81165	75386	-7.1	40570	38392	-5.4	62667	6346965	13061	18417	5356	690711	0.78	3030328
FL	2019-20	337589	623700	41125039	256188	456993	17447441	121820	68104	-44.1	65937	38179	-42.1	81401	23677598	11756	32019	20263	500111	4.05	18672352
AZ	2019-20	132933	247624	11466092	90381	167591	6665734	86255	73751	-14.5	46304	39774	-14.1	42552	4800358	4150	9418	5268	148887	3.54	2462869
WA	2020-21	121151	203562	11223143	117433	217969	11045474	92638	94058	1.5	55134	50675	-8.1	3718	177669	10193	10082	-111	308238	-0.04	-35440
OR	2020-21	67593	108589	5017241	68422	118050	5138791	74227	75104	1.2	46204	43531	-5.8	-829	-121550	4018	4142	124	104689	0.12	10256
CA	2020-21	241216	385188	21003232	399436	716948	50074195	87072	125362	44	54527	69844	28.1	-158220	-29070963	45578	18237	-27341	1449637	-1.89	-20438839
ID	2020-21	42047	85520	3799121	27966	53699	1645910	90354	58854	-34.9	44424	30651	-31	14081	2153211	931	3246	2315	36482	6.35	1217235
TX	2020-21	310132	595736	27539009	227290	420870	16637706	88798	73200	-17.6	46227	39532	-14.5	82842	10901303	13743	22751	9008	698973	1.29	6585459
FL	2020-21	388233	699484	57924931	260005	443650	18737886	149201	72067	-51.7	82811	42236	-49	128228	39187045	12567	40134	27567	517086	5.33	31717899
AZ	2020-21	134643	238555	12104082	102007	181480	7664780	89898	75140	-16.4	50739	42235	-16.8	32636	4439302	5200	9763	4563	156139	2.92	2656896
WA	2021-22	125668	203735	12963907	122463	222533	14622445	103160	119403	15.7	63631	65709	3.3	3205	-1658538	13393	11814	-1579	381550	-0.41	-1911049
OR	2021-22	68554	107828	5809910	68413	114741	6343392	84749	92722	9.4	53881	55284	2.6	141	-533482	5191	4796	-395	135978	-0.29	-383785
CA	2021-22	254935	396571	28473510	399138	703688	52265473	111689	130946	17.2	71799	74274	3.4	-144203	-23791963	48875	24205	-24670	1755339	-1.41	-16092511
ID	2021-22	38679	76286	3765218	30187	56160	2071570	97345	68625	-29.5	49357	36887	-25.3	8492	1693648	1427	3540	2113	49587	4.26	1075774
TX	2021-22	327817	614433	31636915	239601	433563	21498654	96508	89727	-7	51490	49586	-3.7	88216	10138261	17671	25931	8260	863477	0.96	5399375
FL	2021-22	398307	702615	62397833	272756	457281	26403743	156658	96804	-38.2	88808	57741	-35	125551	35994090	17103	46874	29771	665619	4.47	28725511
AZ	2021-22	130273	224640	12701020	108171	187799	9012940	97495	83321	-14.5	56539	47992	-15.1	22102	3688080	6676	11041	4365	203462	2.15	2568553
WA	2022-23	122184	192628	10983098	112345	192657	11248232	89890	100122	11.4	57017	58385	2.4	9839	-265134	12518	10461	-2057	405495	-0.51	-1185494
OR	2022-23	64386	98688	4814939	64431	103462	5291313	74782	82124	9.8	48790	51143	4.8	-45	-476374	4924	4205	-719	143066	-0.5	-402935
CA	2022-23	252863	389700	24154333	353260	590247	36074839	95523	102120	6.9	61982	61118	-1.4	-100397	-11920506	40197	24492	-15705	1851866	-0.85	-7578470
ID	2022-23	35831	66095	2911192	30020	53356	1923115	81248	64061	-21.2	44046	36043	-18.2	5811	988077	1305	2631	1326	50987	2.6	557651
TX	2022-23	307240	553369	25695193	250767	440888	20151443	83632	80359	-3.9	46434	45706	-1.6	56473	5543750	18667	23751	5084	968252	0.53	2204589
FL	2022-23	354112	605238	43392569	298763	493496	22745871	122539	76133	-37.9	71695	46091	-35.7	55349	20646698	18248	40156	21908	705783	3.1	17015352
AZ	2022-23	121675	202429	10646219	104359	175302	7888820	87497	75593	-13.6	52592	45001	-14.4	17316	2757399	6345	9464	3119	215778	1.45	1923295

22 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
state	string	Postal code: WA, OR, CA, ID, TX, FL or AZ.	—	observed
filing_years	string	IRS filing-year pair, such as 2022-23: address on the return filed in 2022 versus 2023. Income is for the second year's tax year (2022 for 2022-23).	—	observed
in_returns	integer	Returns that moved into the state from another state (n1).	returns	observed
in_individuals	integer	People on those returns (n2; exemptions before 2019-20).	people	observed
in_agi_thousands	integer	Year-2 AGI of those returns.	thousands of dollars	observed
out_returns	integer	Returns that moved out to another state.	returns	observed
out_individuals	integer	People on those returns.	people	observed
out_agi_thousands	integer	Year-2 AGI of those returns.	thousands of dollars	observed
avg_agi_in	integer	Average AGI per arriving return.	dollars	derived
avg_agi_out	integer	Average AGI per leaving return.	dollars	derived
leaver_premium_pct	number	How much higher leavers' average AGI was than arrivals' (negative: arrivals higher).	percent	derived
agi_per_person_in	integer	Arrivals' AGI per person.	dollars	derived
agi_per_person_out	integer	Leavers' AGI per person.	dollars	derived
per_person_premium_pct	number	Leaver premium per person.	percent	derived
net_returns	integer	Arrivals minus leavers.	returns	derived
net_agi_thousands	integer	Arrivals' AGI minus leavers' AGI.	thousands of dollars	derived
hi_out_returns	integer	Leaving returns with year-2 AGI of $200,000 or more (gross file outflow_n1_0, agi_stub 7).	returns	observed
hi_in_returns	integer	Arriving returns with AGI of $200,000 or more (inflow_n1_0, agi_stub 7).	returns	observed
hi_net_returns	integer	Net $200,000-plus returns gained (negative: lost).	returns	derived
hi_matched_returns	integer	All matched returns in the state with AGI of $200,000 or more (total_n1_0, agi_stub 7).	returns	observed
hi_net_pct_of_matched	number	Net $200,000-plus returns as a share of the state's matched $200,000-plus returns.	percent	derived
hi_net_agi_thousands	integer	Net year-2 AGI of $200,000-plus movers.	thousands of dollars	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• fh-analysis-results.json Documentation · application/json · 24.9 KB (25,481 bytes)

  Saved-analysis results written by the build script.

• fh-build-migration-dataset.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8 KB (8,170 bytes)

  Node.js script that reads the IRS files and writes every table and result here.

Sources

1. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income (SOI): U.S. Population Migration Data Index of every migration year. State-to-state files used: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/stateinflowYYYY.csv and stateoutflowYYYY.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2223 (rows for each state's 'Total Migration-US' and for Washington's partner states).

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; IRS data are U.S. government works.

   Reliability: Government. Built by IRS from address changes on the full population of individual income tax returns filed in two consecutive years. IRS has no stake in Washington's tax debate.

2. IRS SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2022-2023 Release page for the latest year, linking stateinflow2223.csv, stateoutflow2223.csv and the gross migration file 2223inmigall.csv.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. Official IRS release page. The 2023-24 files were not published as of November 3, 2026 (stateinflow2324.csv returned HTTP 404).

3. IRS SOI gross migration file by AGI class and age, 2022-2023 (2223inmigall.csv), and the same file for earlier years Inflow, outflow and matched returns by AGI class (agi_stub 7 = $200,000 or more) and by age of the primary taxpayer, with year-1 and year-2 AGI. Earlier years at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/YYYYinmigall.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2122.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. Same IRS return-matching as the state-to-state files, but excludes returns with negative AGI and includes moves abroad.

4. IRS, 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide Definitions: AGI is from the year-2 return and in thousands of dollars; 2022-23 matching change; disclosure rules; AGI classes and age groups in the gross file.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. IRS's own documentation of the files.

5. Revised Code of Washington 82.87.040, capital gains tax imposed Date the capital gains tax began: sales on or after January 1, 2022.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. The official statute text published by the Washington Legislature's Code Reviser.

6. Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (session law) Washington's 9.9% tax on taxable income over $1 million: approved March 30, 2026; tax imposed beginning January 1, 2028.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

   Reliability: Government. The enrolled session law as published by the Washington Legislature.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input is a published IRS SOI migration file (stateinflowYYYY.csv, stateoutflowYYYY.csv, YYYYinmigall.csv at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/). The included script fh-build-migration-dataset.js reads those files and writes every table and saved-analysis result in this dataset.

• The latest IRS file is 2022-23: moves between the returns filed in 2022 and 2023, with income from tax year 2022. It cannot show any response to Washington's 2026 income tax, which applies from January 1, 2028.
• Covers only people who filed federal tax returns in both years and could be matched by taxpayer ID. Non-filers are left out.
• AGI comes from the second-year return, filed from the new address, so part of a mover's income may have been earned in the old state.
• Averages are pulled up by a few very high incomes and one-time gains, such as stock or home sales. IRS publishes no medians.
• IRS changed its matching method for 2022-23, adding about 5% more returns. 2014-15 return counts are unusually low in both directions.
• Interstate flows exclude moves abroad. The $200,000-plus counts come from IRS's gross migration file, which includes moves abroad and leaves out returns with negative AGI, so its totals differ slightly from the state-to-state files.
• The $200,000 class is a fixed dollar amount, so more filers cross it as incomes rise. It is far below the $1 million threshold of Washington's 2026 income tax, and IRS migration data have no $1 million class.