Real value of the $1 million standard deduction, 2028-2050

What this dataset measures

These tables test how far the 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million (ESSB 6346, chapter 238, Laws of 2026) reaches beyond the households that pay it: how many filers sit above the line, how much their income swings from year to year, how the comparable capital gains tax has performed, and whether the $1 million threshold keeps its value over time.

Geography

Washington State

Unit of observation

Varies by table: tax year (IRS, capital gains), estimate (households), tax year by inflation scenario (threshold)

Update cadence

Ad hoc; update when IRS SOI releases tax year 2023 state data or the Department of Revenue publishes guidance on the standard-deduction adjustment

Curator

FactHub

Curated data tables

Real value of the $1 million standard deduction, 2028-2050

The deduction as section 316 of ESSB 6346 adjusts it (each October of odd years from 2029, by one 12-month CPI change) and, for comparison, as it would be if adjusted every year like the capital gains deduction, expressed in 2026 dollars.

Unit of observation: Tax year and inflation scenario

threshold_real_value.csv text/csv · 2.6 KB (2,694 bytes)

All 69 rows 6 columns Download the file

All 69 rows

inflationPct percent	taxYear	nominalAsWritten dollars	realAsWritten2026 2026 dollars	nominalAnnualIndex dollars	realAnnualIndex2026 2026 dollars
2	2028	1000000	961000	1000000	961000
2	2029	1020000	961000	1020000	961000
2	2030	1020000	942000	1040000	961000
2	2031	1040000	942000	1061000	961000
2	2032	1040000	923000	1082000	961000
2	2033	1061000	924000	1104000	961000
2	2034	1061000	906000	1126000	961000
2	2035	1082000	905000	1149000	961000
2	2036	1082000	888000	1172000	961000
2	2037	1104000	888000	1195000	961000
2	2038	1104000	870000	1219000	961000
2	2039	1126000	870000	1243000	961000
2	2040	1126000	853000	1268000	961000
2	2041	1149000	854000	1294000	961000
2	2042	1149000	837000	1319000	961000
2	2043	1172000	837000	1346000	961000
2	2044	1172000	821000	1373000	961000
2	2045	1195000	820000	1400000	961000
2	2046	1195000	804000	1428000	961000
2	2047	1219000	804000	1457000	961000
2	2048	1219000	788000	1486000	961000
2	2049	1243000	788000	1516000	961000
2	2050	1243000	773000	1546000	961000
2.5	2028	1000000	952000	1000000	952000
2.5	2029	1025000	952000	1025000	952000
2.5	2030	1025000	929000	1051000	952000
2.5	2031	1051000	929000	1077000	952000
2.5	2032	1051000	906000	1104000	952000
2.5	2033	1077000	906000	1131000	951000
2.5	2034	1077000	884000	1160000	952000
2.5	2035	1104000	884000	1189000	952000
2.5	2036	1104000	862000	1218000	951000
2.5	2037	1131000	862000	1249000	952000
2.5	2038	1131000	841000	1280000	952000
2.5	2039	1160000	841000	1312000	952000
2.5	2040	1160000	821000	1345000	952000
2.5	2041	1189000	821000	1379000	952000
2.5	2042	1189000	801000	1413000	952000
2.5	2043	1218000	800000	1448000	952000
2.5	2044	1218000	781000	1485000	952000
2.5	2045	1249000	781000	1522000	952000
2.5	2046	1249000	762000	1560000	952000
2.5	2047	1280000	762000	1599000	952000
2.5	2048	1280000	744000	1639000	952000
2.5	2049	1312000	744000	1680000	952000
2.5	2050	1312000	725000	1722000	952000
3	2028	1000000	943000	1000000	943000
3	2029	1030000	943000	1030000	943000
3	2030	1030000	915000	1061000	943000
3	2031	1061000	915000	1093000	943000
3	2032	1061000	889000	1126000	943000
3	2033	1093000	889000	1159000	942000
3	2034	1093000	863000	1194000	943000
3	2035	1126000	863000	1230000	943000
3	2036	1126000	838000	1267000	943000
3	2037	1159000	837000	1305000	943000
3	2038	1159000	813000	1344000	943000
3	2039	1194000	813000	1384000	942000
3	2040	1194000	789000	1426000	943000
3	2041	1230000	789000	1469000	943000
3	2042	1230000	766000	1513000	943000
3	2043	1267000	767000	1558000	943000
3	2044	1267000	744000	1605000	943000
3	2045	1305000	744000	1653000	943000
3	2046	1305000	723000	1702000	942000
3	2047	1344000	722000	1754000	943000
3	2048	1344000	701000	1806000	943000
3	2049	1384000	701000	1860000	942000
3	2050	1384000	681000	1916000	943000

6 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
inflationPct	number	Assumed constant annual CPI-W inflation	percent	estimated
taxYear	integer	Tax year the deduction applies to	—	observed
nominalAsWritten	integer	Deduction under section 316 as written	dollars	derived
realAsWritten2026	integer	nominalAsWritten in 2026 dollars	2026 dollars	derived
nominalAnnualIndex	integer	Deduction if adjusted every year from tax year 2029	dollars	derived
realAnnualIndex2026	integer	nominalAnnualIndex in 2026 dollars	2026 dollars	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• results.json Derived table · application/json · 20.4 KB (20,936 bytes)

  Saved-analysis result rows (chart-ready) generated from the CSV tables

• build_data.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 4.9 KB (4,974 bytes)

  Node.js script that extracts the IRS rows and computes the threshold projection (run: node build_data.js <folder with IRS files saved as in19.csv-in22.csv>)

Sources

1. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2022 (22in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2022

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

   Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

2. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2021 (21in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2021

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

   Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

3. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2020 (20in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2020

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

   Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

4. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2019 (19in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2019

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

   Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

5. IRS SOI Tax Stats - Historic Table 2 (state data documentation) Field definitions for the state files (AGI_STUB 10 = $1,000,000 or more; N1, A00100, A00200, A01000, A26270)

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted

   Reliability: Government. IRS documentation of the field codes and AGI classes used in the state data files.

6. Washington State Legislature, ESSB 6346 as enacted (chapter 238, Laws of 2026) Sections 314 and 316: the $1,000,000 standard deduction and its inflation adjustment; section 1(9): the legislative estimate of who pays

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

   Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.

7. RCW 82.87.150, capital gains tax inflation adjustments Comparison: the capital gains standard deduction is adjusted every October by the 12-month CPI change

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

   Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.

8. RCW 82.87.040, capital gains tax rates The 2025 additional 2.9% rate on Washington capital gains over $1,000,000, a threshold RCW 82.87.150 does not adjust

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

   Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.

9. Washington Department of Revenue, Capital Gains Tax - Tax Year 2025 Initial Collections Net capital gains tax collections and payment counts, tax years 2022-2025, as of June 9, 2026

   Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State government work). Unrestricted

   Reliability: Government. The Department of Revenue administers the capital gains tax and reports collections from returns and payments. Figures are revised as refunds and amended returns arrive.

10. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table B11001 (Household Type), Washington Total Washington households: 3,168,080 (margin of error plus or minus 9,393)

    Retrieved October 15, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey estimates household counts from an annual sample; the 2024 one-year estimate has a stated margin of error.

11. Washington State Standard via The Inlander, 'WA revenue officials: Income tax will bring in more money than first expected' (Aug. 27, 2026) Department of Revenue household estimates: 21,000 (legislative fiscal note) and 25,000 (July 2026 revision)

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. News article; cited, not redistributed. Link only

    Reliability: News report. Washington State Standard reporting, republished by The Inlander, of Department of Revenue estimates presented to lawmakers. A secondary report of official figures.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible: build_data.js reads the four public IRS SOI state files and regenerates every CSV; the capital gains and household figures are typed from the cited Department of Revenue page and Census table, and the threshold projection is computed by the same script from the formula in ESSB 6346 section 316.

• IRS counts are tax returns, not households; a married couple filing jointly is one return, but two single earners in one household are two returns. The tax applies per household, so return counts are only an approximation of the payer count.
• IRS adjusted gross income includes long-term capital gains, which the millionaires tax removes and replaces with Washington capital gains already taxed under chapter 82.87 RCW; the $1 million AGI class is therefore not identical to the tax's base.
• The threshold projection assumes a constant inflation rate (2%, 2.5% or 3%) and reads section 316 literally: an October adjustment in each odd year from 2029, equal to the 12-month CPI-W change, applying to that tax year. The Department of Revenue had issued no guidance interpreting section 316 as of October 2026, and section 314 calls the adjustment annual, so the department or a later Legislature could apply it differently.
• Tax year 2025 capital gains collections are initial figures as of June 9, 2026, rounded by the department to $1.5 billion.
• The household share uses the ACS 2024 one-year household count (3,168,080, margin of error plus or minus 9,393) for both payer estimates, although the tax begins in 2028.