Five-second answer

Claim we investigated

Mississippi rose above the national average in 4th-grade reading after its 2013 literacy law, while spending among the least per student

True. Grade 4 reading rose from 209 to 219, above the nation's 214; Mississippi spends among the five least per pupil. Mississippi's 4th-grade NAEP reading score rose from 209 in 2013 to 219 in 2024, while the national average fell to 214, and it ranks among the top states once student demographics are accounted for. It spent $12,324 per pupil in FY2024, among the five lowest. Studies credit its whole literacy program, though holding back struggling third graders explains part of the 4th-grade gain and 8th-grade reading has barely moved.

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FactHub rates the claim “Mississippi rose above the national average in 4th-grade reading after its 2013 literacy law, while spending among the least per student” True (high confidence): Grade 4 reading rose from 209 to 219, above the nation's 214; Mississippi spends among the five least per pupil. Reviewed October 30, 2026. https://facthub.org/n/article/mississippi-reading-gains/1

One-minute summary

What the evidence establishes

  • Established. Mississippi's 4th-grade NAEP reading score rose from 209 (2013) to 219 (2024), above the U.S. public average of 214; California went from 213 to 212.
  • Established. Mississippi spent $12,324 per pupil in FY2024, among the five lowest states; California spent $20,791.
  • Established. Adjusted for student demographics, Mississippi ranks among the top states on NAEP; California ranked about 19th in 2022.
  • Context. Studies credit the whole literacy program, but holding back struggling third graders accounts for part of the 4th-grade gain.
  • Not shown. Lasting gains in older grades: 8th-grade reading was unchanged from 2013 to 2024.
Important context: In April 2013 Mississippi passed the Literacy-Based Promotion Act, which paired reading coaches and teacher training in phonics-based instruction with a rule that third graders who cannot read at grade level repeat the year with extra reading instruction. The state has long been among the lowest spenders per pupil. This check asks whether its early reading results rose after the law while it continued to spend little, and what research says about why. It is a case study within FactHub's comparison of California with other states.

The evidence

The conclusion rests on the combined record. Expand each item to see its role and limitations.

Independence note: This check uses 4 methods across 7 institutions and 1 country or international grouping.
Evidence map
Method Institution / country Year(s) What it shows Key limitation Primary links
NAEP state snapshot reports, 2013 and 2024 National Center for Education Statistics United States 2013, 2024 Mississippi's grade 4 reading score rose from 209 to 219 between 2013 and 2024 while the national average fell from 221 to 214; across four NAEP tests its scores rose a combined 16 points while the nation's fell 32. Not all 2013-2024 changes were tested for statistical significance; scale scores, not proficiency rates. FactHub
Census Annual Survey of School System Finances U.S. Census Bureau United States 2013, 2024 The Census Bureau lists Mississippi among the five states spending the least per pupil in FY2024, at $12,324, against $17,619 nationally and $20,791 in California. Not adjusted for living costs, which are lower in Mississippi. U.S. Census Bureau FactHub
Urban Institute demographic adjustment of NAEP results Urban Institute, Louisiana Department of Education United States 2022, 2024 The Urban Institute's demographically adjusted NAEP rankings place Mississippi among the top states; Louisiana's education department reported Mississippi, Florida and Texas in the top five. Adjustments depend on the demographic variables used. FactHub Louisiana Department of Education
Quasi-experimental studies comparing states and cohorts, and program documents EdWorkingPapers (Annenberg Institute), Institute of Education Sciences (ERIC), Education Week United States 2013, 2025, 2026 The 2013 law aimed to have every student reading at grade level by the end of third grade, with coaches, teacher training and extra instruction. A multi-state study found Mississippi's gains larger than other states' and attributed them to its comprehensive program; on its own, the retention mandate's effect was small and not significant. Another study found Mississippi's largest gains came after retention effects faded. The state spends about $15 million a year on literacy support. No study fully separates retention from coaching, training and curriculum; the studies are working papers. Institute of Education Sciences (ERIC), REL Southeast Sakib Mahmud, EdWorkingPapers Walker, Nadal-Fernandez and Kilbride, EdWorkingPapers Education Week
1. Mississippi's early reading scores rose above the nation's NAEP state snapshot reports, 2013 and 2024

Mississippi's grade 4 reading score rose from 209 to 219 between 2013 and 2024 while the national average fell from 221 to 214; across four NAEP tests its scores rose a combined 16 points while the nation's fell 32.

Limit: Not all 2013-2024 changes were tested for statistical significance; scale scores, not proficiency rates.

Verify: California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

Mississippi's 4th-grade reading rose above the nation's; California's was flatNAEP grade 4 reading average scale scores, 2013 and 2024.{"width":960,"height":540,"plot":{"left":90,"top":70,"right":926,"bottom":482},"yDomain":[208,222],"series":[{"name":"Mississippi","color":"#176b87"},{"name":"California","color":"#b6542c"},{"name":"U.S. public","color":"#684b9b"}],"points":[{"series":0,"x":90,"y":452.57,"xLabel":"2013","yLabel":"209"},{"series":1,"x":90,"y":334.86,"xLabel":"2013","yLabel":"213"},{"series":2,"x":90,"y":99.43,"xLabel":"2013","yLabel":"221"},{"series":0,"x":926,"y":158.29,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"219"},{"series":1,"x":926,"y":364.29,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"212"},{"series":2,"x":926,"y":305.43,"xLabel":"2024","yLabel":"214"}]}Mississippi's 4th-grade reading rose above the nation's; California's was flat20821021221421621822022220132024YearMississippiCaliforniaU.S. publicMississippiCaliforniaU.S. publicFactHub · Grade 4 reading score
NAEP grade 4 reading average scores, 2013 and 2024. Source: NCES state snapshot reports. View source chart
2. Mississippi spends among the least per pupil Census Annual Survey of School System Finances

The Census Bureau lists Mississippi among the five states spending the least per pupil in FY2024, at $12,324, against $17,619 nationally and $20,791 in California.

Limit: Not adjusted for living costs, which are lower in Mississippi.

Verify: 2024 Annual Survey of School System Finances (May 7, 2026) California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

3. Adjusted for demographics, Mississippi ranks near the top Urban Institute demographic adjustment of NAEP results

The Urban Institute's demographically adjusted NAEP rankings place Mississippi among the top states; Louisiana's education department reported Mississippi, Florida and Texas in the top five.

Limit: Adjustments depend on the demographic variables used.

Verify: California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025 Louisiana education ranks fourth nationally on new study (Dec. 9, 2024)

4. Research credits the whole literacy program, not retention alone Quasi-experimental studies comparing states and cohorts, and program documents

The 2013 law aimed to have every student reading at grade level by the end of third grade, with coaches, teacher training and extra instruction. A multi-state study found Mississippi's gains larger than other states' and attributed them to its comprehensive program; on its own, the retention mandate's effect was small and not significant. Another study found Mississippi's largest gains came after retention effects faded. The state spends about $15 million a year on literacy support.

Limit: No study fully separates retention from coaching, training and curriculum; the studies are working papers.

Verify: Mississippi Literacy-Based Promotion Act report (ED573545, April 2017) Does State-Mandated Third-Grade Reading Retention Policy Improve Achievement? (ai25-1352, Dec. 2025) Estimating the Overall Effects of Statewide Early Literacy Policies: Evidence from Michigan (ai26-1556, Aug. 2026) Mississippi students surged in reading over the last decade. Here's how schools got them there (June 19, 2023)

Common questions

“Mississippi's gains are an illusion created by holding back low-scoring third graders.”

Short answer: Partly

Retention raises 4th-grade averages by keeping low scorers out of the tested group for a year, and critics argue it explains much of the gain. But multi-state studies find Mississippi's gains exceed what retention alone produced elsewhere, and its largest gains came after retention effects had faded.

“The gains disappear by 8th grade.”

Short answer: For reading, largely

Mississippi's 8th-grade reading score was the same in 2024 as in 2013, the area of least progress. This check rates early reading, where the gains are clear.

Conclusion

The claim is accurate. On the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the same test in every state, Mississippi's 4th-grade reading average rose from 209 in 2013 to 219 in 2024, while the national public-school average fell from 221 to 214 and California's went from 213 to 212. Mississippi's 4th-grade math rose from 231 to 239. Across the four main NAEP tests its scores rose a combined 16 points from 2013 to 2024, while the national average fell 32. On the Urban Institute's 2022 rankings adjusted for student demographics, Mississippi averaged about 3.5th among states; California averaged 19th. And Mississippi spent $12,324 per pupil in FY2024, among the five lowest in the country, against $20,791 in California. Why the scores rose is more contested, and this check rates only that they did. Studies that compare many states find Mississippi's gains larger than other states' and credit the whole package, including coaches, teacher training and intensive help for struggling readers, rather than retention alone. The state spends about $15 million a year on literacy support. But holding back third graders who fail the reading test does raise 4th-grade averages: when one study examined retention mandates in isolation, the effect largely disappeared. And Mississippi's 8th-grade reading score was the same in 2024 as in 2013. The fair reading is that Mississippi made real early-reading gains at low cost, with some of the 4th-grade improvement owed to who is tested.

How we checked

  1. Took NAEP average scale scores for Mississippi, California and the U.S. public-school average from NCES state snapshots for 2013 and 2024.
  2. Took per-pupil spending from Census school finance data and demographically adjusted rankings from the Urban Institute.
  3. Reviewed studies of the Literacy-Based Promotion Act and critiques of the retention effect.
  4. Rated whether scores rose while spending stayed low, not what caused the rise.

Editorial note: Scope: NAEP results for Mississippi, California and the U.S. public-school average, 2013-2024, and per-pupil spending. This is a case study in FactHub's comparison of California with other states, not part of the fixed peer group. Several research quotes come from working papers. No external specialist review has been recorded.

Expert-review status

No external specialist review has been recorded.

Funding and conflicts

Funding: No external funding for this piece.

Ownership: FactHub is an independent fact-checking project.

Conflicts: No known conflicts of interest.

Sources

Sources are labeled by kind, with what this fact check takes from each, so readers can check the evidence independently.

  1. FactHub record FactHub. California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

    FactHub's peer-comparison dataset, including NAEP scores, adjusted ranks and per-pupil spending.

    • Mississippi's grade 4 NAEP reading score rose from 209 in 2013 to 219 in 2024; the U.S. public average fell from 221 to 214 and California's went from 213 to 212.

    • Summed across four NAEP tests, Mississippi's scores rose 16 points from 2013 to 2024, while the U.S. public average fell 32 and California's fell 17.

    • Mississippi spent $12,324 per pupil in FY2024 (up 52% from $8,130 in FY2013); California spent $20,791 and the U.S. $17,619.

    • On the Urban Institute's 2022 demographically adjusted rankings, Mississippi and Florida averaged rank 3.5 and California 19.0.

  2. Government U.S. Census Bureau. 2024 Annual Survey of School System Finances (May 7, 2026)

    Census release on public school spending per pupil by state.

    Reliability: Federal statistical agency; not adjusted for inflation or cost-of-living differences.

    • Mississippi was among the five states spending the least per pupil in FY2024, at $12,324.

      What the source says
      The states spending the least per pupil were Idaho ($11,060), Utah ($11,347), Arizona ($12,003), Oklahoma ($12,162) and Mississippi ($12,324).
      Highlights
  3. Government Louisiana Department of Education. Louisiana education ranks fourth nationally on new study (Dec. 9, 2024)

    State education department release on the Urban Institute's demographically adjusted rankings.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Louisiana promotes its own ranking; cited here only for the list of top-five states.

    • Mississippi, Florida and Texas were among the top five states in the Urban Institute's adjusted rankings.

      What the source says
      Louisiana ranked fourth overall. Other states in the top five are Florida, Texas, Mississippi, and Massachusetts.
      First paragraph
  4. Government Institute of Education Sciences (ERIC), REL Southeast. Mississippi Literacy-Based Promotion Act report (ED573545, April 2017)

    Federal education research lab report on Mississippi's 2013 law.

    Reliability: Federally funded regional education laboratory.

    • The 2013 law aimed to have every student reading at grade level by the end of third grade.

      What the source says
      Literacy-Based Promotion Act was signed into law with the goal of having every student read at or above grade level by the end of grade 3.
      Abstract
  5. Academic Sakib Mahmud, EdWorkingPapers. Does State-Mandated Third-Grade Reading Retention Policy Improve Achievement? (ai25-1352, Dec. 2025)

    Multi-state difference-in-differences study of retention mandates in Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio and Mississippi.

    Reliability: Working paper, not yet peer reviewed.

    • The study finds Mississippi's gains larger than other retention states' and attributes them to its comprehensive law.

      What the source says
      Mississippi is different because of its comprehensive Literacy-Based Promotion Act
      Abstract, p. 1

    • Qualifies: Examined on its own, the retention mandate's effect across states was small and not statistically significant.

      What the source says
      the effect diminishes to 0.014 and becomes statistically insignificant.
      Abstract, p. 1
  6. Academic Walker, Nadal-Fernandez and Kilbride, EdWorkingPapers. Estimating the Overall Effects of Statewide Early Literacy Policies: Evidence from Michigan (ai26-1556, Aug. 2026)

    Study comparing early literacy policies across states.

    Reliability: Working paper, not yet peer reviewed.

    • Mississippi's largest gains came in later years, after retention effects had begun to fade.

      What the source says
      Mississippi's largest achievement gains emerge during later years when retention effects had begun to fade
      Section 5.3.2
  7. News report Education Week. Mississippi students surged in reading over the last decade. Here's how schools got them there (June 19, 2023)

    Education trade publication on how Mississippi implemented its literacy law.

    Reliability: Trade newspaper covering K-12 education.

    • Qualifies: Mississippi invests about $15 million a year in literacy support.

      What the source says
      a significant investment of $15 million per year to support literacy
      Body
  8. News report Los Angeles Times (Michael Hiltzik, column). Column: Mississippi gamed national reading tests (July 3, 2023)

    Opinion column arguing Mississippi's gains reflect retention.

    Reliability: Opinion column; argues the strongest form of the retention critique.

    • Contradicts: Critics argue that removing low scorers from the tested group makes the remaining group look better.

      What the source says
      If you throw the lowest-ranking 10% out of a statistical pool, the remaining pool inevitably looks better.
      Body
  9. Advocacy group Mississippi First. Contextualizing Mississippi's 2024 NAEP scores (Feb. 18, 2025)

    Mississippi education policy nonprofit's analysis of 2024 results.

    Reliability: Has a stake in this finding. Mississippi education advocacy group that supports the state's reforms; cited for a limitation it acknowledges.

    • Qualifies: Eighth-grade reading is where Mississippi has made the least progress.

      What the source says
      is where the state has seen the least progress over time.
      Grade 8 reading section
  10. FactHub dataset California vs. Texas, Florida, New York and the U.S.: spending and results, 2012-2025

    • Tables: peer

      Saved analysis ms-g4-reading

    • Tables: peer

      Saved analysis pupil-spend-growth

  11. FactHub chart ms-ca-reading-chart

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