Official revenue estimates vs. actual collections

What this dataset measures

We included every top-rate or millionaire tax we could find, from 2004 on, for which both a pre-collection official estimate and a later collection figure (or official re-estimate) are published in a source we could open. Taxes with no published bracket-level collections (New Jersey 2018 and 2020, New York 2021) and New Jersey's 2004 tax (whose estimate we could not retrieve from a source) are excluded. Where one tax has several years, we include each year that has a matching estimate. The Massachusetts row includes both the Department of Revenue's forecast and the Tufts dynamic estimate, because the second is the only pre-enactment estimate in the set that cut revenue for behavioral responses.

Geography

California, Massachusetts, New York, Maryland, Oregon, Washington

Unit of observation

One estimate-vs-actual comparison for one tax and one revenue period

Update cadence

Ad hoc; updated when new collection figures are published

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

Official revenue estimates vs. actual collections

Each row compares one revenue estimate with the revenue later collected (or officially re-estimated) for the same tax and period.

Unit of observation: One estimate-vs-actual comparison

forecast_vs_actual.csv text/csv · 8.2 KB (8,408 bytes)

All 18 rows 21 columns Download the file

All 18 rows

comparison_id	tax_id	tax	jurisdiction	period	estimator	estimate_made_on	estimate_kind	behavioral_assumption	estimate_usd_m US dollars, millions (nominal)	estimate_low_usd_m US dollars, millions	estimate_high_usd_m US dollars, millions	actual_usd_m US dollars, millions (nominal)	actual_kind	economy	main_explanation	verification	estimate_source_id	actual_source_id	label	ratio ratio
ca-prop30-fy2012	ca-prop30	California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates	California	FY2011-12	Legislative Analyst's Office	2012-09-24	Pre-enactment ballot estimate	No behavioral adjustment stated	2816	—	—	3500	LAO estimate of revenue generated (Nov 2014)	Expansion	Partial year; LAO later found high earners accelerated income into 2012 ahead of federal rate increases	Verified	lao-prop30-2012	lao-prop30-2014	CA Prop 30 FY12	1.243
ca-prop30-fy2013	ca-prop30	California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates	California	FY2012-13	Legislative Analyst's Office	2012-09-24	Pre-enactment ballot estimate	No behavioral adjustment stated	4265	—	—	5300	LAO estimate of revenue generated (Nov 2014); "over $5.3 billion", so a lower bound	Expansion	Stock-market gains; income accelerated into the 2012 tax year	Verified	lao-prop30-2012	lao-prop30-2014	CA Prop 30 FY13	1.243
ca-prop30-fy2014	ca-prop30	California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates	California	FY2013-14	Legislative Analyst's Office	2012-09-24	Pre-enactment ballot estimate	No behavioral adjustment stated	4358	—	—	5600	LAO estimate of revenue generated (Nov 2014)	Expansion	Stock-market gains	Verified	lao-prop30-2012	lao-prop30-2014	CA Prop 30 FY14	1.285
ca-prop30-fy2017	ca-prop30	California Proposition 30 (2012) income-tax rates	California	FY2016-17	Legislative Analyst's Office	2012-09-24	Pre-enactment ballot estimate	No behavioral adjustment stated	5173	—	—	7000	State budget assumption reported by LAO in 2016 ("about $7 billion"); not a final tabulation	Expansion	Stock-market gains	Verified	lao-prop30-2012	lao-prop55-2016	CA Prop 30 FY17	1.353
ca-prop63-fy2006	ca-prop63	California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M	California	FY2005-06	Legislative Analyst's Office	2004-07-01	Pre-enactment ballot estimate	No behavioral adjustment stated	750	—	—	906	Revenue reported by the Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission (Jan 2017), cash basis	Expansion	Rising high-end incomes and capital gains	Verified	lao-prop63-2004	mhsoac-revenue-2017	CA Prop 63 FY06	1.208
ca-prop63-fy2007	ca-prop63	California Proposition 63 (2004) 1% surcharge over $1M	California	FY2006-07	Legislative Analyst's Office	2004-07-01	Pre-enactment ballot estimate	No behavioral adjustment stated	800	—	—	984	Revenue reported by the Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission (Jan 2017), cash basis	Expansion	Rising high-end incomes and capital gains	Verified	lao-prop63-2004	mhsoac-revenue-2017	CA Prop 63 FY07	1.23
ma-surtax-fy2024-dor	ma-surtax	Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)	Massachusetts	FY2024	Massachusetts Department of Revenue (consensus revenue hearing)	2023-01-30	Pre-collection budget forecast (range)	Not stated	1605.5	1445	1766	2199	DOR preliminary certification (July 24, 2024)	Expansion	Strong 2023-24 markets and capital gains	Verified	mtf-fy2024-consensus	ma-dor-fy2024	MA surtax FY24 (DOR)	1.37
ma-surtax-fy2024-tufts	ma-surtax	Massachusetts 4% surtax on income over $1M (2023)	Massachusetts	FY2024 (estimate for 2023)	Tufts Center for State Policy Analysis	2022-01-15	Pre-enactment independent estimate	Dynamic: about 35% cut for avoidance and migration	1300	—	—	2199	DOR preliminary certification (July 24, 2024)	Expansion	The behavioral cut did not show up at the predicted size; strong markets	Verified	tufts-cspa-2022	ma-dor-fy2024	MA surtax FY24 (Tufts)	1.692
ny-surcharge-sfy2010	ny-surcharge-2009	New York 2009 temporary high-income surcharge	New York	SFY2009-10	New York Division of the Budget (enacted budget)	2009-04-07	Enacted-budget estimate	Not stated	4000	—	—	3600	DOB revised in-year forecast (Oct 30, 2009), not a final tabulation	Recession (2008-09)	Recession; DOB cited a historically unprecedented decline in wages among high earners	Verified	ny-dob-2009-midyear	ny-dob-2009-midyear	NY surcharge FY10	0.9
md-millionaire-ty2008	md-millionaire	Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)	Maryland	Tax year 2008	Maryland Department of Legislative Services	2008-04-04	Pre-enactment fiscal note	Not stated for the income tax (the same note cut the sales-tax base by 6%)	102.1	—	—	78.2	Comptroller figure quoted in a DLS fiscal note (2012)	Recession (2008-09)	Recession; fewer and smaller millionaire incomes; migration claims disputed	Verified	md-dls-sb46-2008	md-dls-hb784-2012	MD $1M bracket TY08	0.766
md-millionaire-ty2009	md-millionaire	Maryland 6.25% bracket over $1M (2008-10)	Maryland	Tax year 2009	Maryland Department of Legislative Services	2008-04-04	Pre-enactment fiscal note	Not stated for the income tax (the same note cut the sales-tax base by 6%)	109.3	—	—	60.8	Comptroller figure quoted in a DLS fiscal note (2012)	Recession (2008-09)	Recession; fewer and smaller millionaire incomes; migration claims disputed	Verified	md-dls-sb46-2008	md-dls-hb784-2012	MD $1M bracket TY09	0.556
or-m66-bien-2009-11	or-m66	Oregon Measure 66 (2010) top-rate increase	Oregon	2009-11 biennium	Oregon Legislative Revenue Office	2009-11-19	Pre-vote estimate	Static (behavior discussed only for long-run economic effects)	504	—	—	336	LRO revised projection (Dec 2010) of "about two-thirds" of $504 million, as reported by Oregon Business; $336M is our arithmetic	Recession (2008-09)	Recession and capital-gains collapse; tax year 2009 was taxed retroactively, so no one could avoid it	Unverified	or-lro-rr6-09	or-business-2010	OR Measure 66 2009-11	0.667
mult-pfa-fy2022	mult-pfa	Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021)	Multnomah County, Oregon	FY2022	Multnomah County	2021-07-01	Budget forecast	Not stated	112	—	—	187	Collections reported by Multnomah County (Feb 14, 2023)	Expansion	2021 capital gains; researchers estimate added out-migration cost about 8.5% of static revenue	Verified	mult-county-2023	mult-county-2023	Multnomah PFA FY22	1.67
mult-pfa-fy2025	mult-pfa	Multnomah County Preschool for All income tax (2021)	Multnomah County, Oregon	FY2025	Multnomah County	2024-07-01	Budget forecast	Not stated	163	—	—	224	Collections reported by Willamette Week from the county financial report	Expansion	Above forecast; includes a one-time lottery windfall	Unverified	wweek-pfa-2025	wweek-pfa-2025	Multnomah PFA FY25	1.374
metro-shs-fy2025	metro-shs	Metro Supportive Housing Services income tax (2021)	Portland metro area, Oregon	FY2024-25	Metro	2024-06-30	Budget forecast (original adopted budget)	Not stated	374.5	—	—	325	Metro year-end report; within 0.6% of Metro's updated Fall 2024 forecast	Expansion	Post-2021 normalization; Metro cites a weaker local economy and a potential behavioral response	Verified	metro-shs-fy2025	metro-shs-fy2025	Metro SHS FY25	0.868
wa-capgains-fy2023	wa-capgains	Washington capital gains tax (2021)	Washington	Tax year 2022 (FY2023)	Washington Department of Revenue (fiscal note)	2021-06-22	Pre-enactment fiscal note (gross capital gains tax lines)	Static (2018 returns grown by the CBO forecast; compliance 85-95%)	527	—	—	782	DOR net payments as of June 9, 2026	Market decline (2022)	A few very large payments: the top 10 supplied 51% of tax year 2022	Verified	wa-fn-5096-2021	wa-dor-capgains-2026	WA cap gains TY22	1.484
wa-capgains-2023-25	wa-capgains	Washington capital gains tax (2021)	Washington	Tax years 2023-24 (2023-25 biennium)	Washington Department of Revenue (fiscal note)	2021-06-22	Pre-enactment fiscal note (gross capital gains tax lines)	Static (2018 returns grown by the CBO forecast; compliance 85-95%)	1162	—	—	978.5	DOR net payments as of June 9, 2026 ($394.7M + $583.8M)	Expansion	Fewer very large payments than in tax year 2022	Verified	wa-fn-5096-2021	wa-dor-capgains-2026	WA cap gains TY23-24	0.842
wa-surcharge-fy2026	wa-surcharge	Washington 2.9% capital gains surcharge over $1M (2025)	Washington	Tax year 2025 (FY2026)	Washington Department of Revenue (fiscal note)	2025-05-05	Pre-enactment fiscal note	Static (about 900 taxpayers; ERFC growth)	151	—	—	331.9	ERFC estimate of the 2.9% rate's share of FY2026 collections, reported by the Washington Research Council	Expansion	Strong 2025 markets; the rate applied retroactively to Jan 1, 2025	Verified	wa-fn-5813-2025	wrc-capgains-2026	WA surcharge TY25	2.198

21 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
comparison_id	string	Stable row id	—	observed
tax_id	string	Stable id of the tax	—	observed
tax	string	Tax name and enactment year	—	observed
jurisdiction	string	State or local government levying the tax	—	observed
period	string	Fiscal year, tax year or biennium compared	—	observed
estimator	string	Who made the estimate	—	observed
estimate_made_on	date	Date the estimate was published (approximate where the forecast note says so)	—	observed
estimate_kind	string	Pre-enactment estimate, budget forecast, or enacted-budget estimate	—	observed
behavioral_assumption	string	What the estimate says about taxpayer behavioral responses	—	observed
estimate_usd_m	number	Point estimate, or the midpoint of the published range	US dollars, millions (nominal)	observed
estimate_low_usd_m	number	Low end of a published range; empty when the estimate is a single value	US dollars, millions	observed
estimate_high_usd_m	number	High end of a published range; empty when the estimate is a single value	US dollars, millions	observed
actual_usd_m	number	Revenue collected, or the later official estimate described in actual_kind	US dollars, millions (nominal)	observed
actual_kind	string	What the actual figure is (final collections, preliminary certification, or later official estimate)	—	observed
economy	string	Economic setting of the revenue period: Recession (2008-09), Market decline (2022) or Expansion	—	derived
main_explanation	string	Main reason for the gap given by the sources	—	observed
verification	string	Verified when both values were read in a primary or official source we opened; Unverified when one came from secondary reporting	—	derived
estimate_source_id	string	Source of the estimate (id in sources)	—	observed
actual_source_id	string	Source of the actual value (id in sources)	—	observed
label	string	Short label used on the chart	—	derived
ratio	number	Actual divided by estimate	ratio	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• results.json Derived table · application/json · 15.4 KB (15,799 bytes)

  Saved-analysis results written by build_fva.js: ratio rows, verified-only rows, counts, per-tax summary and erosion rows.

• build_fva.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 13.9 KB (14,195 bytes)

  Node.js script holding every typed input value and computing the tables and results (node build_fva.js).

Sources

1. California Legislative Analyst's Office Year-by-year Proposition 30 revenue estimates (table 'Proposition 30 Revenue Estimates')

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked, not hosted

   Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan fiscal adviser to the California Legislature; prepares the official ballot-pamphlet fiscal estimates. The handout reproduces the ballot-analysis estimates by year.

2. California Legislative Analyst's Office Estimated Proposition 30 revenue generated, FY2011-12 to FY2013-14

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

   Reliability: Government. LAO's November 2014 estimate of what Proposition 30 raised; LAO says the amounts remain subject to change.

3. California Legislative Analyst's Office 2016-17 budget assumption for Proposition 30 income-tax revenue

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

   Reliability: Government. Official ballot analysis of Proposition 55 (2016). The $7 billion figure is the state budget's assumption, not a final tabulation.

4. California Legislative Analyst's Office Pre-enactment Proposition 63 revenue estimate

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

   Reliability: Government. Official ballot-pamphlet fiscal analysis for the November 2004 election.

5. California Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission Mental Health Services Act revenue by fiscal year Free copy

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. California state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

   Reliability: Government. State commission overseeing Proposition 63 spending; figures drawn from Governor's Budget fund condition statements, cash basis. The live site blocks automated access, so we read the archived copy.

6. Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation FY2024 surtax projections presented at the consensus revenue hearing (DOR range $1,445M-$1,766M) and the $1 billion budget cap

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Publication of a private nonprofit. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

   Reliability: Advocacy group. Business-backed fiscal research group; it opposed the surtax campaign but here reports the official hearing projections in a table. The bulletin is dated January 30, 2023.

7. Massachusetts Department of Revenue Preliminary certified FY2024 surtax revenue ($2.199 billion)

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. Massachusetts state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

   Reliability: Government. Official DOR press release of August 9, 2024, reporting the July 24, 2024 preliminary certification; later certifications may revise it.

8. Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis Static ($2.1B) and dynamic ($1.3B) estimates of 2023 surtax revenue

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. University publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

   Reliability: Academic. Nonpartisan university policy center, January 2022. Its dynamic estimate cut revenue about 35% for avoidance (central income elasticity of 1) and migration.

9. New York State Division of the Budget Original ($4.0B) and revised ($3.6B) forecast of the 2009 high-income surcharge

   Retrieved October 21, 2026. New York state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

   Reliability: Government. Governor's budget office press release of October 30, 2009 on the mid-year financial plan update.

10. Maryland Department of Legislative Services Pre-enactment estimate for the 6.25% bracket ($102.1M TY2008, $109.3M TY2009)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Maryland state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative fiscal note on SB 46 (2008), revised April 4, 2008.

11. Maryland Department of Legislative Services Comptroller's figures for revenue raised by the 6.25% rate, TY2008-10

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Maryland state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. 2012 fiscal note quoting the Comptroller's Office on what the expired bracket raised.

12. Oregon Legislative Revenue Office Pre-vote revenue estimate for Measure 66 (Table 2: $504M from rates and phase-out; $472M net)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Oregon state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan legislative revenue office research report RR 6-09, November 19, 2009.

13. Oregon Business Report of the December 2010 LRO revised projection (about two-thirds of $504M) and first-year preliminary collections ($130M vs $180M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. News article (archived copy). Facts quoted; archived page linked

    Reliability: News report. Business magazine item of December 16, 2010, summarizing a Statesman Journal report on an LRO presentation; the LRO document itself was not found. The original page is offline, so we link the Internet Archive copy.

14. Multnomah County FY2022 Preschool for All forecast ($112M) and collections ($187M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. County government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. County news release of February 14, 2023. The county administers the tax with the City of Portland.

15. Willamette Week FY2025 Preschool for All forecast ($163M) and collections ($224M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. News article. Facts quoted; page linked

    Reliability: News report. Portland weekly reporting figures from the county's annual financial report, November 21, 2025; we did not read the county report itself.

16. Metro (Portland regional government) FY2024-25 original budget ($374.5M), Fall 2024 forecast ($323.1M) and actual collections ($325.0M)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Regional government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Metro administers and spends the tax; this is its own year-end revenue report.

17. Washington Office of Financial Management (DOR fiscal note) Capital gains tax revenue estimate as passed (gross tax lines: $527M FY2023; $1,162M 2023-25)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Multi-agency fiscal note for SSB 5096 (2021), revised June 22, 2021. Gross tax = Education Legacy Trust plus Common School Construction lines; the note's $442M state total also nets out a B&O tax credit.

18. Washington Department of Revenue Capital gains tax net payments by tax year, as of June 9, 2026

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Government. DOR administers the tax; net payments are payments minus refunds as of the stated date and may change.

19. Washington Office of Financial Management (DOR fiscal note) Revenue estimate for the 2.9% capital gains surcharge ($151M FY2026)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts and figures quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Fiscal note for ESSB 5813 (2025), dated May 5, 2025; assumes about 900 taxpayers and ERFC growth, with no behavioral adjustment stated.

20. Washington Research Council ERFC estimate that the 2.9% rate accounts for $331.9M of FY2026 capital gains revenue

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Publication of a private nonprofit. Facts quoted; page linked

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Business-supported fiscal research nonprofit that generally opposes new taxes; here it reports a figure attributed to the state's Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

21. Joshua Rauh and Ryan Shyu, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 16(1), 2024 Behavioral erosion of California Proposition 30 windfall revenue (45.2% year 1, 60.9% within two years) Free copy

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Working paper; abstract quoted. Facts quoted; paper linked

    Reliability: Peer-reviewed study. Peer-reviewed study using California tax-return data; Rauh is a Hoover Institution fellow. Erosion is measured against the authors' no-response counterfactual.

22. Conway, Iselin and Rork, 'Mult-No-More?' (working paper, April 2026) Migration revenue loss from the Preschool for All tax (about 8.5% of static 2022 revenue)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Working paper hosted by OPB. Facts quoted; paper linked

    Reliability: Academic. Economists at UNH, the Yale Budget Lab and Reed College; not yet peer reviewed. The authors call their estimate likely an upper bound.

23. Cristobal Young and Charles Varner, National Tax Journal 64(2), 2011 New Jersey 2004 tax: static yield ($1.08B, 2006) and migration revenue loss ($16.4M/yr)

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Journal article; copy posted by the Vermont Legislature. Facts quoted; copy linked

    Reliability: Peer-reviewed study. Peer-reviewed study of New Jersey tax-return data; measures migration only, not reported-income responses.

24. Washington Office of Financial Management (DOR fiscal note) Behavioral assumption in the ESSB 6346 income-tax revenue estimate

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington state government publication. Facts quoted; document linked

    Reliability: Government. Multi-agency fiscal note for ESSB 6346 (2026) as passed; states that affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income and applies a 4.71% AGI cut for reduced IRS enforcement.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every estimate and actual value was typed from the cited source; build_fva.js computes the ratios, counts and per-tax summaries and writes the CSV tables and results.json. Running node build_fva.js reproduces the published files byte for byte.

• Estimates and actuals are not always on the same basis. Several actuals are later official estimates rather than final tabulations (California FY2011-12 to FY2016-17, New York SFY2009-10, Oregon 2009-11), and California Proposition 63 actuals are cash-basis receipts.
• Ratios are nominal and compare one estimate with one outcome; they say nothing about why the outcome differed. In particular, a ratio above 1 does not show that taxpayers did not respond to the tax, and a ratio below 1 does not show that they did.
• Estimators differ (legislative analysts, revenue departments, a university center, local budget offices), and some estimates were made shortly before collections (Massachusetts FY2024, Multnomah, Metro) while others were made before enactment.
• The Oregon outcome is a revised projection reported second-hand by Oregon Business, and the Multnomah FY2025 figures come from Willamette Week; these rows are marked Unverified.
• The set is small (18 comparisons, 10 taxes) and not a random sample; its timing is dominated by the 2008-09 recession and the 2012-2025 market expansion.
• Some forecast dates are approximate (see each forecast's note).