What 2026 growth would be if jobs stay at the September level

What this dataset measures

On November 3, 2026, a state legislator said Washington had negative job growth so far in 2026, a 0.1% job growth forecast, and inflation outpacing income growth. These tables hold the official figures needed to check each point: the two monthly payroll series, the state forecast, federal personal income and the Seattle-area consumer price index.

Geography

Washington, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area, United States

Unit of observation

State-month (payroll jobs), state-quarter (income), metro-month (prices), industry sector (September change)

Update cadence

One-time release for a November 2026 fact check; ESD and BLS revise these series monthly and benchmark them each March.

Curator

FactHub Research Team

Saved analyses

Sources

1. Washington Employment Security Department, Monthly Employment Report charts and data, September 2026 Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll jobs, January 2016 to September 2026 (sheet 'Empl. and unempl., sa'), and the September 2026 change by industry (sheets 'Industry employment OTM, sa' and 'Industry employment OTY, nsa'). Updated October 14, 2026.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government work; public information. Public data; redistributed with attribution.

   Reliability: Government. The state labor department's labor market office produces this series with BLS. It is benchmarked to quarterly unemployment-insurance wage records, and the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council uses it.

2. Washington Employment Security Department, Monthly Employment Report, September 2026 Narrative and tables for the September 2026 job change, including the split between government and private employers.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government work; public information. Linked, not redistributed.

   Reliability: Government. Written by the department's chief labor economist from the same estimates as the workbook.

3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics: Washington total nonfarm (SMS53000000000000001) and U.S. total nonfarm (CES0000000001) Federal payroll job estimates as published, seasonally adjusted, in thousands.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain.

   Reliability: Government. Monthly survey of employers. The state figures are not yet benchmarked for 2026, so they can differ from the state's benchmarked series.

4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U all items, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue (CUURS49DSA0) Seattle-area consumer price index, not seasonally adjusted, June and August 2025 and 2026.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain.

   Reliability: Government. The official federal price index for the Seattle metro area, collected every other month.

5. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, SQINC1 state quarterly personal income summary, Washington Washington personal income and per capita personal income, Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rates, current dollars. Released September 30, 2026.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain.

   Reliability: Government. Official federal estimates of income received by state residents from all sources, before taxes and not adjusted for inflation.

6. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, Economic Review, November 2, 2026 The state's preliminary November 2026 forecast for 2026 employment, personal income and Seattle-area inflation.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government work; public information. Linked, not redistributed.

   Reliability: Government. Nonpartisan forecast staff serving a council of legislators from both parties and the executive branch. The council's members include Rep. Travis Couture, who made the claim checked here.

7. Rep. Travis Couture, post on X, November 3, 2026 The claim checked: the legislator's own words.

   Retrieved November 3, 2026. Quoted for commentary. Linked; quoted briefly.

   Reliability: Party to the dispute. Has a stake in this finding. A Republican state representative replying to the Democratic governor's post about a WalletHub ranking. He serves on the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every value was copied from an official file or federal API listed in sources. Percent changes and averages are simple arithmetic on those values; the method notes in each saved analysis give the exact formula.

• Payroll estimates are preliminary and are revised monthly; BLS will benchmark the 2026 Washington figures in early 2027.
• The state's benchmarked series has no October 2025 value because the federal funding lapse stopped data collection; 2025 averages from that series use 11 months.
• The Seattle-area price index is collected every other month and covers the metro area, not the whole state.
• Personal income is a total for all residents (wages, benefits, investment income), not a measure of a typical household's pay.