Washington payroll jobs from the state's benchmarked series and the federal estimate, the September 2026 change by industry, state personal income against Seattle-area prices, and the state's November 2026 forecasts. Built to check claims that Washington job growth turned negative in 2026 and that prices are rising faster than incomes.
Coverage: Payroll jobs January 2016 to September 2026; income Q2 2025 and Q2 2026; prices June and August 2025 and 2026; forecasts for 2026.
On November 3, 2026, a state legislator said Washington had negative job growth so far in 2026, a 0.1% job growth forecast, and inflation outpacing income growth. These tables hold the official figures needed to check each point: the two monthly payroll series, the state forecast, federal personal income and the Seattle-area consumer price index.
Geography
Washington, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area, United States
State benchmarked (ESD) or Federal estimate as published (BLS).
—
derived
jobs_thousands
number
Total nonfarm payroll jobs, seasonally adjusted.
thousands of jobs
derived
Saved analyses
Washington job growth in 2026 by measure
Question: How much did Washington payroll jobs grow in 2026, on each series and each common way of measuring it, and how does that compare with the U.S.?
Result: On the state's benchmarked series, Washington's January-September 2026 average is 0.05% (about 1,900 jobs) below the same months of 2025. On the federal estimate as published it is 0.24% above, close to the U.S. at 0.22%. Both series show jobs up 0.43% from December 2025 to September 2026. The state series is up 0.07% over two years and 3.59% since February 2020, against 4.43% for the U.S.
Operation: Percent and absolute change between averages or months
Scope: Washington and U.S. total nonfarm payroll jobs, seasonally adjusted
The two Washington series differ because only the state series has been benchmarked to unemployment-insurance wage records for 2025-2026; BLS will benchmark in early 2027.
All 2026 values are subject to revision.
Washington payroll jobs, January 2024 to September 2026
Question: How has the number of Washington payroll jobs moved since the start of 2024 on each series?
Result: The state benchmarked series was 3,635,900 in September 2024 and 3,638,500 in September 2026, a gain of 2,600 jobs (0.07%) in two years. It peaked at 3,655,100 in July 2026 and fell 15,400 in September. The federal estimate as published ends September 2026 at 3,654,900.
Operation: Monthly levels, no transformation beyond rounding
Scope: Washington total nonfarm payroll jobs, seasonally adjusted, thousands
October 2025 is missing from the state series because of the federal funding lapse; the line breaks there.
Monthly changes of under about 10,000 jobs are within normal survey noise for a state this size.
What 2026 growth would be if jobs stay at the September level
Question: If Washington payroll jobs stayed at the September 2026 level through December, what would 2026 annual-average growth be?
Result: With jobs flat at the September level for the rest of the year, the 2026 average would be 0.07% above 2025, which rounds to the 0.1% the state forecast.
Operation: Annual average with October-December 2026 set equal to September 2026, compared with the 2025 annual average
This is an arithmetic check, not a forecast. The state council's own forecast shows 2025 and 2026 averages of 3,632,000 and 3,635,000 jobs.
Washington income growth against Seattle-area price growth
Question: Did Washington incomes rise faster or slower than Seattle-area prices over the past year, and what does the state forecast for 2026?
Result: Seattle-area prices rose 4.4% from August 2025 to August 2026 and 4.5% to June. Washington personal income rose 3.8% from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, and income per person 3.2%. The state's November forecast has 2026 personal income up 3.9% and Seattle prices up 4.4%.
Operation: Year-over-year percent change, rounded to one decimal
Scope: Washington personal income (BEA), Seattle-area CPI-U (BLS), state November 2026 forecast (ERFC)
Personal income includes investment income and government benefits, not just pay.
The Seattle price index covers the metro area only. Against the U.S. index (3.4% in August), total income grew faster than prices, but income per person did not.
Where Washington's September 2026 job loss came from
Question: Which industries accounted for Washington's 15,400-job drop from August to September 2026?
Result: Government accounted for 10,400 of the 15,400 jobs lost in September 2026 (state government 8,800, mostly education). Private employers lost 5,000.
Operation: Copy of ESD's one-month seasonally adjusted change by industry
Scope: Washington total nonfarm, August to September 2026
Not seasonally adjusted, government jobs rose by 8,900 in September, less than the usual September rise of 19,300; the seasonally adjusted loss reflects that gap and may be revised.
The forecast council, using its own seasonal adjustment, put the September loss at 9,800.
Statements on record
Exact quotes, unaltered, with what surrounded them, the primary
source, and an archived copy of it.
“Meanwhile, back in reality: [...] Negative job growth YTD. [...] Just 0.1% employment growth forecast for 2026. [...] Inflation outpacing income growth. His own economists delivered the bad news YESTERDAY.”
Travis Couture, Washington state representative (R), 35th District; member of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
Post on X ·
·
Assertion
Context: Couture was replying to a post by Gov. Bob Ferguson saying WalletHub had ranked Washington the 6th best state to find a job, with the number 1 economic environment. His post opened by saying the governor was taking a victory lap over a WalletHub ranking and ended with 'You can't create jobs with a press release, Governor.' The [...] marks chart emoji used as bullets, omitted here. 'Yesterday' refers to the forecast council's November 2, 2026 economic review.
Each forecast beside the value later observed by a saved
analysis. FactHub computes the error as the actual value minus
the forecast; for a range, it is zero inside the range and
otherwise measured from the nearest bound.
Forecast
Forecast value
Actual
Error
Percent error
Source
Washington nonfarm payroll employment, annual-average growth, 2026
Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council,
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government work; public information. Public data; redistributed with attribution.
Reliability:
Government.
The state labor department's labor market office produces this series with BLS. It is benchmarked to quarterly unemployment-insurance wage records, and the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council uses it.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain.
Reliability:
Government.
Monthly survey of employers. The state figures are not yet benchmarked for 2026, so they can differ from the state's benchmarked series.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Public domain.
Reliability:
Government.
Official federal estimates of income received by state residents from all sources, before taxes and not adjusted for inflation.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Washington State government work; public information. Linked, not redistributed.
Reliability:
Government.
Nonpartisan forecast staff serving a council of legislators from both parties and the executive branch. The council's members include Rep. Travis Couture, who made the claim checked here.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Quoted for commentary. Linked; quoted briefly.
Reliability:
Party to the dispute.
Has a stake in this finding. A Republican state representative replying to the Democratic governor's post about a WalletHub ranking. He serves on the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
Limitations and reproducibility
Reproducible from public sources: Every value was copied from an official file or federal API listed in sources. Percent changes and averages are simple arithmetic on those values; the method notes in each saved analysis give the exact formula.
Payroll estimates are preliminary and are revised monthly; BLS will benchmark the 2026 Washington figures in early 2027.
The state's benchmarked series has no October 2025 value because the federal funding lapse stopped data collection; 2025 averages from that series use 11 months.
The Seattle-area price index is collected every other month and covers the metro area, not the whole state.
Personal income is a total for all residents (wages, benefits, investment income), not a measure of a typical household's pay.
wa-jobs-esd-monthly.csv
text/csv · 2.5 KB (2,600 bytes)
