FactHub curated dataset

Washington millionaires tax: who files over $1 million, how the threshold holds up, and how volatile the base is

IRS counts of Washington tax returns reporting $1 million or more (2019-2022), Washington capital gains tax collections (tax years 2022-2025), the share of Washington households expected to pay the 2026 millionaires tax, and a projection of the real value of the tax's $1 million standard deduction under the indexing formula in ESSB 6346 section 316.

Coverage: IRS tax years 2019-2022; capital gains tax years 2022-2025; household estimates 2024-2026; threshold projection tax years 2028-2050

Node: dataset:wa-millionaires-tax-reach

What this dataset measures

These tables test how far the 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million (ESSB 6346, chapter 238, Laws of 2026) reaches beyond the households that pay it: how many filers sit above the line, how much their income swings from year to year, how the comparable capital gains tax has performed, and whether the $1 million threshold keeps its value over time.

Curated data tables

These related tables form this versioned dataset release. Each table has its own downloadable file and field definitions.

Washington returns with AGI of $1 million or more, 2019-2022

One row per tax year from the IRS SOI state file, AGI class 10 ($1,000,000 or more), compared with all Washington returns.

Unit of observation: Tax year

View this table

wa_irs_returns_1m_plus.csv text/csv · 345 bytes
9 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
taxYear integer Federal tax year — observed
allReturns integer All Washington returns (N1, AGI_STUB 0) returns observed
returns1mPlus integer Returns with AGI of $1,000,000 or more (N1, AGI_STUB 10) returns observed
shareOfReturnsPct number returns1mPlus as a percent of allReturns percent derived
agi1mPlusBillion number Total AGI of $1M+ returns (A00100, thousands of dollars, divided by 1e6) billion dollars derived
shareOfAgiPct number AGI of $1M+ returns as a percent of all Washington AGI percent derived
wages1mPlusBillion number Salaries and wages on $1M+ returns (A00200) billion dollars derived
netCapitalGain1mPlusBillion number Net capital gain (less loss) on $1M+ returns (A01000) billion dollars derived
partnershipSCorp1mPlusBillion number Partnership and S corporation net income (less loss) on $1M+ returns (A26270) billion dollars derived

Real value of the $1 million standard deduction, 2028-2050

The deduction as section 316 of ESSB 6346 adjusts it (each October of odd years from 2029, by one 12-month CPI change) and, for comparison, as it would be if adjusted every year like the capital gains deduction, expressed in 2026 dollars.

Unit of observation: Tax year and inflation scenario

View this table

threshold_real_value.csv text/csv · 2.6 KB (2,694 bytes)
6 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
inflationPct number Assumed constant annual CPI-W inflation percent estimated
taxYear integer Tax year the deduction applies to — observed
nominalAsWritten integer Deduction under section 316 as written dollars derived
realAsWritten2026 integer nominalAsWritten in 2026 dollars 2026 dollars derived
nominalAnnualIndex integer Deduction if adjusted every year from tax year 2029 dollars derived
realAnnualIndex2026 integer nominalAnnualIndex in 2026 dollars 2026 dollars derived

Washington capital gains tax collections by tax year

Net payments (payments less refunds) as reported by the Department of Revenue on June 9, 2026.

Unit of observation: Tax year

View this table

4 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
taxYear integer Tax year — observed
netCollectionsMillion number Net collections million dollars observed
netPayments integer Number of net payments payments observed
status string observed, or initial for tax year 2025 — observed

Share of Washington households expected to pay

Each official estimate of paying households divided by the ACS 2024 household count.

Unit of observation: Estimate

View this table

paying_household_share.csv text/csv · 189 bytes
4 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
estimate string Which estimate — observed
payingHouseholds integer Estimated households owing the tax households estimated
waHouseholds integer All Washington households, ACS 2024 1-year households estimated
sharePct number payingHouseholds as a percent of waHouseholds percent derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

  • results.json Derived table · application/json · 20.4 KB (20,936 bytes)

    Saved-analysis result rows (chart-ready) generated from the CSV tables

  • build_data.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 4.9 KB (4,974 bytes)

    Node.js script that extracts the IRS rows and computes the threshold projection (run: node build_data.js <folder with IRS files saved as in19.csv-in22.csv>)

Saved analyses

Real value of the $1 million threshold at 2.5% inflation

Question: Under section 316 as written, what is the $1 million standard deduction worth in 2026 dollars from 2028 to 2050, compared with annual indexing?

Result: At 2.5% inflation the threshold is worth $952,000 in 2026 dollars in 2028, $821,000 in 2040 and $725,000 in 2050; annual indexing would hold it near $952,000.

Operation: Deterministic projection: compound the section 316 adjustment and deflate by assumed CPI

Scope: Tax years 2028-2050

View this analysis

  • Assumes constant inflation and a literal reading of section 316; DOR has not issued guidance, and section 314 describes the adjustment as annual.
  • A later Legislature can change the deduction by simple majority.

Robustness checks

Real value of the $1 million threshold at 2% inflation

Question: Same projection at 2% inflation.

Result: $961,000 in 2028, $853,000 in 2040, $773,000 in 2050 (2026 dollars).

Operation: Deterministic projection

Scope: Tax years 2028-2050

View this analysis

  • Constant-inflation assumption; literal reading of section 316.

Robustness check for: Real value of the $1 million threshold at 2.5% inflation

Real value of the $1 million threshold at 3% inflation

Question: Same projection at 3% inflation.

Result: $943,000 in 2028, $789,000 in 2040, $681,000 in 2050 (2026 dollars).

Operation: Deterministic projection

Scope: Tax years 2028-2050

View this analysis

  • Constant-inflation assumption; literal reading of section 316.

Robustness check for: Real value of the $1 million threshold at 2.5% inflation

Washington returns reporting $1 million or more, 2019-2022

Question: How many Washington returns report AGI of $1 million or more, and how much does their income swing from year to year?

Result: $1M+ returns went from 15,890 (2019) to 28,930 (2021) and back to 21,530 (2022); their AGI went from $51.2B to $100.0B to $66.0B, or 14.8% to 22.8% to 15.8% of all Washington AGI.

Operation: Extract AGI_STUB 10 rows for Washington; compute shares

Scope: Washington, tax years 2019-2022

View this analysis

  • Four years only; the 2021 peak reflects an unusually strong stock market and may not recur.
  • Federal AGI differs from the tax's Washington base.

Washington capital gains tax collections by tax year

Question: How much has Washington's existing tax on high incomes from investments varied from year to year?

Result: $782.0M (2022), $394.7M (2023), $583.8M (2024), about $1.5B (2025, initial; includes a new 2.9% surcharge over $1M).

Operation: Transcribe DOR net collections

Scope: Tax years 2022-2025

View this analysis

  • 2025 is initial and includes a rate increase, so the 2024-2025 jump is not purely market-driven.
  • Capital gains are more volatile than the wage and business income that will make up much of the millionaires tax base.

Share of households expected to pay

Question: What share of Washington households do official estimates expect to owe the tax?

Result: 21,000 households is 0.66% and 25,000 is 0.79% of Washington's 3,168,080 households, versus the bill's stated one-half of one percent.

Operation: Divide estimated paying households by ACS 2024 households

Scope: Washington

View this analysis

  • Household count is from 2024; the tax starts in 2028.
  • The bill's 0.5% may have been computed per tax return rather than per household; 21,530 of 3,757,410 returns (0.57%) reported $1M+ in 2022.

Sources

  1. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2022 (22in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2022

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

    Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

  2. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2021 (21in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2021

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

    Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

  3. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2020 (20in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2020

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

    Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

  4. IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax State Data, tax year 2019 (19in55cmcsv.csv) Washington returns and income by AGI class, tax year 2019

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted; linked, not rehosted

    Reliability: Government. The IRS Statistics of Income division tabulates every individual return filed, by state and AGI class. It takes no position on Washington's tax.

  5. IRS SOI Tax Stats - Historic Table 2 (state data documentation) Field definitions for the state files (AGI_STUB 10 = $1,000,000 or more; N1, A00100, A00200, A01000, A26270)

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. IRS documentation of the field codes and AGI classes used in the state data files.

  6. Washington State Legislature, ESSB 6346 as enacted (chapter 238, Laws of 2026) Sections 314 and 316: the $1,000,000 standard deduction and its inflation adjustment; section 1(9): the legislative estimate of who pays

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.

  7. RCW 82.87.150, capital gains tax inflation adjustments Comparison: the capital gains standard deduction is adjusted every October by the 12-month CPI change

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.

  8. RCW 82.87.040, capital gains tax rates The 2025 additional 2.9% rate on Washington capital gains over $1,000,000, a threshold RCW 82.87.150 does not adjust

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. Official text of Washington law published by the Legislature's Code Reviser. The Legislature enacted the tax, but the text itself is the authoritative statement of what the law says.

  9. Washington Department of Revenue, Capital Gains Tax - Tax Year 2025 Initial Collections Net capital gains tax collections and payment counts, tax years 2022-2025, as of June 9, 2026

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. Public domain (Washington State government work). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. The Department of Revenue administers the capital gains tax and reports collections from returns and payments. Figures are revised as refunds and amended returns arrive.

  10. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table B11001 (Household Type), Washington Total Washington households: 3,168,080 (margin of error plus or minus 9,393)

    Retrieved October 15, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Unrestricted

    Reliability: Government. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey estimates household counts from an annual sample; the 2024 one-year estimate has a stated margin of error.

  11. Washington State Standard via The Inlander, 'WA revenue officials: Income tax will bring in more money than first expected' (Aug. 27, 2026) Department of Revenue household estimates: 21,000 (legislative fiscal note) and 25,000 (July 2026 revision)

    Retrieved October 14, 2026. News article; cited, not redistributed. Link only

    Reliability: News report. Washington State Standard reporting, republished by The Inlander, of Department of Revenue estimates presented to lawmakers. A secondary report of official figures.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible: build_data.js reads the four public IRS SOI state files and regenerates every CSV; the capital gains and household figures are typed from the cited Department of Revenue page and Census table, and the threshold projection is computed by the same script from the formula in ESSB 6346 section 316.

  • IRS counts are tax returns, not households; a married couple filing jointly is one return, but two single earners in one household are two returns. The tax applies per household, so return counts are only an approximation of the payer count.
  • IRS adjusted gross income includes long-term capital gains, which the millionaires tax removes and replaces with Washington capital gains already taxed under chapter 82.87 RCW; the $1 million AGI class is therefore not identical to the tax's base.
  • The threshold projection assumes a constant inflation rate (2%, 2.5% or 3%) and reads section 316 literally: an October adjustment in each odd year from 2029, equal to the 12-month CPI-W change, applying to that tax year. The Department of Revenue had issued no guidance interpreting section 316 as of October 2026, and section 314 calls the adjustment annual, so the department or a later Legislature could apply it differently.
  • Tax year 2025 capital gains collections are initial figures as of June 9, 2026, rounded by the department to $1.5 billion.
  • The household share uses the ACS 2024 one-year household count (3,168,080, margin of error plus or minus 9,393) for both payer estimates, although the tax begins in 2028.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article i645-threshold-simple-majority — version 3 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-millionaires-tax-who-it-affects — version 6 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-millionaires-tax-who-it-affects — version 5 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-narrow-taxes-grew — version 1 (published) cites version 2
  • Chart wa-millionaires-tax-threshold-real-value — version 2 (published) cites version 2
  • Dataset wa-millionaires-tax-household-reach — version 2 (published) cites version 2
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 6 (published) cites version 2
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 4 (published) cites version 2